FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

This hand just happened on the bubble of a $330 and I thought I'd share it to get some reactions/comments. I minraised so this exact situation could happen, just because it puts the SB in a really bad spot because the BB will be getting great odds to call if he pushes. FWIW I think ideally the SB should just call with anything less than JJ here, but obviously he isn't thinking that. My minraise here isn't really what I'm debating about, it's the call after the SB shoves and is overcalled by the BB.

When the hand played out just as I'd hoped, I immediately thought I should fold just so I could have a chance to freeroll ITM. Then after it was on me again to call/fold, I realized that if I won the hand I would have ~4700 chips. Obviously the problem is that I MUST finish in 1st place out of the 3 of us in order to not bubble.

I also think the BB is probably a favorite over the SB, just because people generally don't like to overcall here with trash hands even though they're getting the correct odds to.

Just for fun I put the SB on a range of 22+,A2s+,K9s+,QJs,A2o+,K9o+ and the BB on a range of 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A5o+,KTo+,QJo

I don't even know how I feel about these ranges, but that's what I feel they're calling and overcalling with.
That leaves my options as:
A) Fold and get ITM ~50% of the time.
B) Call and lose 68% of the time according to my reads and pokerstove.
C) Call and have ~5k chips ITM 32% of the time.


Full Tilt Poker Game #2436657040: $330 + $20 Sit & Go (Turbo) (18459937), Table 1 - 250/500 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:46:53 ET - 2007/05/16
Seat 2: titantom32 (2,580)
Seat 4: z32fanatic (1,480)
Seat 6: ktd2005 (1,680)
Seat 8: ComputerhandQ7 (7,760)
ktd2005 posts the small blind of 250
ComputerhandQ7 posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to z32fanatic [Kc Qd]
titantom32 folds
z32fanatic raises to 1,000
ktd2005 raises to 1,680, and is all in
ComputerhandQ7 has 15 seconds left to act
ComputerhandQ7 calls 1,180
z32fanatic folds


So yeah, let me know what you think of this play.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

With the ranges you give them how often is SB winning the hand effectivley making you bubble almost every time anyway? If this is more often than it would be if you call then I think you need to be calling.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

With the ranges I gave BB beats the SB ~55% of the time. Way less than I thought at the time.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

You get ITM (3rd) about 20% more often by folding, and I don't think having 5k chips 1/3 of the time makes up for the extra times you bubble by calling. If someone wants to calculate this though that would be great because I could be wrong.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

I'm probably going to answer my own question here, but I'm going give approximate finish distributions if I win the hand and if I fold.

When I call, I'll say I get 1st 40% of the time, 2nd 45% of the time, and 3rd 15% of the time. Given this distro, my equity when I win the hand is ~$1084.

When I fold it's not looking good if I get ITM. I'd say I get 1st 5% of the time (probably generous), 2nd 20% of the time, and 3rd 75%. Approximate equity when I fold and get ITM is $698.

Also let's say I still get ITM 5% of the time when I fold and the SB wins, with the same finish distro as me getting ITM when the SB folds. Approximate equity when I fold, SB wins is $35 (holla).

.32x1084= $347 calling
.52x698 + .48x35= $379 when I fold

Tell me if I miscalculated anywhere there, I'm pretty tired.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

slick move sir, very nice

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

Velocity just brought it to my attention that I could even open fold preflop, which I hadn't really considered. I think it's a push just because I hit the blinds first, but I guess I'll put open folding as an option as well.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

I never thought of baiting people into this kind of thing. Nice!

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

after thinking about it for a while and doing some math, i like the minraise, and its definitely a fold once the other 2 are all in.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

Hi Z.

I think it's a fold once the other 2 are all in.

However, I'm going to go against everyone and say that I don't like the min. raise UNLESS you think it gives you more fold equity from the BB than a push does. I think having more fold equity is really what you want more than anything here. The chances that SB and BB are both going to play are pretty low so fold equity should be your main concern.

Ryan

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm probably going to answer my own question here, but I'm going give approximate finish distributions if I win the hand and if I fold.

When I call, I'll say I get 1st 40% of the time, 2nd 45% of the time, and 3rd 15% of the time. Given this distro, my equity when I win the hand is ~$1084.

When I fold it's not looking good if I get ITM. I'd say I get 1st 5% of the time (probably generous), 2nd 20% of the time, and 3rd 75%. Approximate equity when I fold and get ITM is $698.

Also let's say I still get ITM 5% of the time when I fold and the SB wins, with the same finish distro as me getting ITM when the SB folds. Approximate equity when I fold, SB wins is $35 (holla).

.32x1084= $347 calling
.52x698 + .48x35= $379 when I fold

Tell me if I miscalculated anywhere there, I'm pretty tired.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well according to your own analysis, the play was bad in retrospect since open-folding would've given you better equity.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

If you're gonna minraise, why not limp? I don't see either SB or BB playing a minraise that differently than a limp.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you're gonna minraise, why not limp? I don't see either SB or BB playing a minraise that differently than a limp.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a good idea since it would have the same effect z32 intended, at a significantly lower price. Still open folding or open pushing might be better, dependent on BB.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm probably going to answer my own question here, but I'm going give approximate finish distributions if I win the hand and if I fold.

When I call, I'll say I get 1st 40% of the time, 2nd 45% of the time, and 3rd 15% of the time. Given this distro, my equity when I win the hand is ~$1084.

When I fold it's not looking good if I get ITM. I'd say I get 1st 5% of the time (probably generous), 2nd 20% of the time, and 3rd 75%. Approximate equity when I fold and get ITM is $698.

Also let's say I still get ITM 5% of the time when I fold and the SB wins, with the same finish distro as me getting ITM when the SB folds. Approximate equity when I fold, SB wins is $35 (holla).

.32x1084= $347 calling
.52x698 + .48x35= $379 when I fold

Tell me if I miscalculated anywhere there, I'm pretty tired.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no way you only get 3rd 15% of the time when you win. The other guy just isn't short enough. The whole minraise to make SB make a mistake is better when you have a lot less chips than 3rd place. Say you have 1300 chips and SB has 2500 or so.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

I have never miniraised in this situation. I would most often just push here. But the more I think about the more I like it. It puts SB in a really awkward position. I think his best choice is probably to call if he wants to play his hand.

If BB pushes over he can call if you call and fold if you fold. (Since you will get hit by the blind first)

Once you have raised and both of them are all in I would guess that your best move is to fold. I haven't done any math but being the shortest stack in a 3-way all-in usually always suck.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

[ QUOTE ]

However, I'm going to go against everyone and say that I don't like the min. raise UNLESS you think it gives you more fold equity from the BB than a push does. I think having more fold equity is really what you want more than anything here. The chances that SB and BB are both going to play are pretty low so fold equity should be your main concern.

Ryan

[/ QUOTE ]

The minraise is better IMO than a regular shove because shoving has no advantages that I can see over minraising. If you shove, the BB is going to see "call 900" and hit call to knock you out. If you minraise, he's going to have a difficult time re-minraising with hands like T4o just because it will be harder for him to figure out that he should do it with any 2 (just like he should call any 2). I guess I'm saying I think it gives you more FE. I just don't see what advantages shoving has over minraising when you have no FE.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

lol sngs

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

CHIP!!! Wus up hoomey, hadnt talked to u in a while, also hadnt posted strat in a while, so heres my 2 cents....

Never rly was a fan of min raising PF. I like it better in STT than Cash FWIW. If youre all in PF, theres always gonna b more FE IMO, therefore in this spot I like shove.

Folding should NOT be an option, KQ is way too gooot on button.

As played, with the minraise, I dunno, I guess call, meh fold. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

If SB is a regular, it makes the MR/fold a better play. It actually can give you better FE against him, esp. if he vibes BB has no qualms about over-calling in a 3-way pot with a wie range. I mean, he can flat call 1/2 his remaining stack, but with 3 short stacks vs. two, it's a worse play than normal for him, b/c if you both fold now 3rd SS has a huge 2nd place lead.

Of course, you start doing it all the time, some people get pissed at your fancy-pants-MR-[censored] and then they may be more inclined to call you. It depends largely on what you think of BB, and what you think BB thinks of you, how he manages "his" bubble, etc. People do fold their BB's getting better than 2:1 sometimes, especially if it keeps their pwnage in tact.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

TF,

You are too busy winning donkaments and WSOP seats to respond to my IMs.



Gramps,

In typical fashion you have explained everything without giving an actual answer! What do you do!!!!!11

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

I kinda think I like a limp.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you're gonna minraise, why not limp? I don't see either SB or BB playing a minraise that differently than a limp.

[/ QUOTE ]

bb never folds letting us pick up the blinds if we limp...

goggles/suzzer/other pro-limp people, how often does bb c/f the flop after we limp? also, how often do sb/bb shove over our limp?

basically, can i get an explanation of why you like limping cause it seems like throwing away 500 chips needlessly cause we win without showdown a lot less with a limp than we do with a minraise or shove.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

Well, in this case if our main goal as stated is to induce SB to shove and BB to call so we can fold, limping saves us 500 chips. IF SB is planning to shove over a minraise I don't think those 500 chips are going to induce him to play a lot different. And IF BB is going to call I don't think those 500 chips are going to matter to him in that decision.

If either BB or SB shoves, but not both, then we call. So the hand plays the same there with a limp or minraise.

If SB just completes, I think it's unlikely he's going to call a BB shove after we call, so not a big concern there. Also we get 250 more chips in the pot.

Soooo - obviously the biggest concern is SB completing and BB checking. Well in this case, 1/3 of the time we're going to flop a pair - and we don't care if there's an ace. And we have overs if one of them does flop a pair and they both check to us - where we are probably shoving most flops I would think. We also have the option of folding if SB and BB both bet.

Yes it would suck if one of them pairs up his trash hand and would have folded pre. But I don't feel like that one possibility is enough to outweigh all the other scenarios.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm probably going to answer my own question here, but I'm going give approximate finish distributions if I win the hand and if I fold.

When I call, I'll say I get 1st 40% of the time, 2nd 45% of the time, and 3rd 15% of the time. Given this distro, my equity when I win the hand is ~$1084.

When I fold it's not looking good if I get ITM. I'd say I get 1st 5% of the time (probably generous), 2nd 20% of the time, and 3rd 75%. Approximate equity when I fold and get ITM is $698.

Also let's say I still get ITM 5% of the time when I fold and the SB wins, with the same finish distro as me getting ITM when the SB folds. Approximate equity when I fold, SB wins is $35 (holla).

.32x1084= $347 calling
.52x698 + .48x35= $379 when I fold

Tell me if I miscalculated anywhere there, I'm pretty tired.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for this post, I enjoyed reading this thread. I know this wasnt the 'point' of your thread per se. But what is your equity if you open shove, sb folds, bb calls? Or open shove, sb calls, bb folds? Etc? Is it better or worse than these situations?

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Gramps,

In typical fashion you have explained everything without giving an actual answer! What do you do!!!!!11

[/ QUOTE ]

That's b/c I dont' know if there is an "answer," it's all so situational dependent, as I'm sure you know...

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

I guess that one thing to consider is that normally we'd have like 25 seconds to make a decision like this [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

Yeah, which is why I'm probably just shoving unless I'm down to one or two tables. But my point is if we're going to put the thought in to get all fancy-pants like OP, I think a limp is worth considering as well.

Re: FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...
 

[ QUOTE ]

Well, in this case if our main goal as stated is to induce SB to shove and BB to call so we can fold,

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont think thats the main goal, its just an added benefit of minraising instead of pushin