Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

Three somewhat common occurrences. I love making these quizzes and its been a little while since my last one. I'm going to sleep in a little bit so if this attracts any attention I'll post my thoughts. I'm sure when I have a date established with my book being published these types of (self congratulatory/promotionary) posts will increase in frequency. That said, feel free to argue with any play up to the decision but understand that the hand is played largely how I would've played it. Obviously I am not egotistical to assume that is the "only" way the hand can be played, or the optimal way, but just be content knowing that I play it that way. Since this is SSNL, we'll assume the game is NL200 6max.

#1. We're in the CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], we (200, unknown image) raise to 8 pf. BB (245, you have a few notes/stats but just a typical player with somewhat loose TAG stats) defends his blind. Flop (~17 minus rake) comes A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], checked to us, we bet 12, BB check raises to 32 total. We call. Turn (80) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] villain bets 40. What do we do?

#2. We are UTG and pick up AQo, suits irrelevant. We (200, unknown to these players) make it 8, button ("defends his button religiously" but a tag/lag with 245) calls.
Sub Q: If this player 3bets to 25 total, what's our standard play?
Any case, flop (~19) comes T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], we bet 12, villain calls. Turn (43) comes a blank, 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. What's our play? If we check, villain bets 25. What's our play then?

#3. A bad player (140, very loose passive) limps UTG, and we (240) isolate raise 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the button to 10 total. BB cold calls, as does the limper. (BB has 383 and is a nit where this cold call is AQ-AT, JJ-22, possibly a little wider range given UTG's presence, but not looser then that). Flop (~30) comes 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and they check to us. We timebank a little bit contemplating a cbet (validity in checking) but opt to fire away with 23. BB calls, and UTG folds. Ok, lost the bad player, got the good player, terrific. Turn (~76) comes the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and BB bets 44. What do we do?

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

im on a hurry so just reading it fast:
#1 meh, i just typed 'fold' but honestly, i like pushing here. the 2d just opened up some draws for him, and we still can represent our ace quite well. also we have outs.

#2 id like some stats on how he reacts to contibets, however, the 3 did not change the board. yeah, some backdoors and stuff, but we still cant represent anymore than we did on the flop. if he likes floating/calling draws i 2nd barrel here, if he doesnt, i c/f.
subq: if he repops from the button, once again, its up to stats, if hes like 27/24 type i like to call and stack off on almost any Ahi or Qhi flops, if hes more reasonable, i fold cause AQo is too marginal a hand to play it oop against a tag - at least for me.

#3 I fold. A nit is not going to represent something he hasnt got. He has the king/something even stronger almost always and im drawing to 6 cards that probably wont kill my/the action. im never getting odds for this, also, i suspect his WTS is reasonable, hes not going to pay us off unless he has a set here.


oh, im always folding. this cant be good.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

[ QUOTE ]

oh, im always folding. this cant be good.

[/ QUOTE ]
it could be very good, but you may want to consider stacks, odds, and hand ranges for why you're folding. also:

[ QUOTE ]
subq: if he repops from the button, once again, its up to stats, if hes like 27/24 type

[/ QUOTE ]
Id label a tag/lag as something like 24/20 or so, vpip higher then 22 for sure and pfr close to vpip.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

1 - Folding/shoving are both ok. Although an arguement can be made for calling if we plan bruffing diamond rivers (although I wouldn't usually, people never believe backdoored-hands, hence their inherent value).

3:1 on the call, we have like ~20% equity (9 outs once) - how much more would we need to win on the river for the turn call to be +EV?

2 - c/f and cr both have merit. The 3s is a relatively [censored] card to 2nd barrel on.

When he bets it's 43:25 = 1.72:1 to us. We have 4 nut outs which is around 15% equity (the trouble I am having here is assessing our overcad outs - assigning 6 more pure outs to our AQ here seems rather over-zealous).

3 - I like a flop check, seeing as though we didn't... I think a fold is good here; with two of our outs tainted I don't think we have as high implied odds if we hit to stack him.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

#1: Usually fold. In order to call a $40 bet with our odds of about 19% we need to win over $200 when we hit, which means we need at least another $40 from the villain on the river. He may call an $40 bet when the club hits if he has a set or a striaght, but a lot of Aces are possible as well which will likely fold a club river.

#2: I think in general a high card is much better for firing a second barrel, but in this case "we have a gutshot" and likely overcards and i like a bet/fold to a big reraise. I'd consider a semibluff CRAI although I need to know the villain can fold TP in this situation. I think c/f is the best option besides b/f.

#3: fold. This is a nit with a clear set and we are drawing to a very non-obvious straight, but the spades will scare him away [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. So we have only 6 outs = 12% equity which means we need a pot of $366 to call this bet. That's $202 on the river and our stack only has $163 left in it. We need him to call a shove (or at least a bet of about $120) when the 5 or T of spades hits to make this call

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

#1: Fold - we need to win too much on average on the river if we hit, and we only have seven clean outs. Too much of his range folds to our ~$45 bet on the river if we do hit a clean out, and if we hit a board pairing club, we could end up losing instead.

#2: Check Fold - We don't know if our A or Q is good if we hit, and we certainly don't have odds to draw to the K. The 3 didn't change anything so I don't like a second barrel here.

#3: Fold - We are assuming BB is an OK player? If so, BB only called flop because he wanted the bad player along. He didn't get it and now he wants to stop us getting a free card. This is because he has a set or small overpair. If we call the turn and hit, even if we stack him every time we lose money with this play.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

#1. We're getting 3:1 to call, and make a flush 4:1. We need to make $40 on average when we hit to make a call break even. I think, coupled with the times that we are actually ahead and we win, a call is just about ok here. Any more than 1/2 pot I think you have to fold.

#2. If he 3 bets I usually fold with AQo, you can get into trouble with reverse implied odds here I reckon. Depends if he's been 3 betting me a lot.

I check fold that turn, but that's probably getting severely outplayed. Maybe I would double barrel a more favourable turn card.

#3. Fold to the bet, we probably only have 6 good outs usually as we either dont get value on the 5s or Ts, or get pwnd by the flush.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

I need to work on this, so thanks for the post.

1. We are ~4-1 to hit, he is offering us 3-1, so if we can expect to make $40 on the river then a call is +ev. I definately think we can and so folding is out. Hopefully the following math is correct in figuring out how often he needs to fold for a push to be +ev.

** I started to type up some stuff, but then realised something: If we are going to be at least calling the 40, then effectively the pot is already 160, right? so...

120 in the pot, 40 to call which i already will. So the pot is basically 160, i have 20% of that. So that means if he folds i win the 80% that wasn't mine, or $128. If he calls me then i get 20% of my push, + 20% of his call. Which is like losing 60% of the 'sidepot'. So...

(x*128) + (1-x)(0.6*-240)
= 128x +(1-x)(-144)
= 128x - 144 + 144x
144 = 272x
x = 0.52

So if he folds 52% of the time then a push is +ev compared to calling :s. I am really unsure if this is correct. If it is, there has to be a better way right?

that took too long, #2 later...

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

Actually, I am coming round to the idea of calling the turn in #1. He has a hand he wants to play, as evidenced by his flop check/raise. We may well only have seven outs though, but taken to an extreme, if we check/fold a board pairing club but bet 2/3 pot when we hit one of our seven outs, we will probably average enough to win with our play.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

1) I call. We're getting 3/1 on what is a 4/1 shot, and figure to make at least $40 on river if we hit. If he has a set and we only have 7 outs, that at least guarantees we get paid off if we hit on river I think. I don't like pushing because I don't think even a strong ace folds here often enough.

2) If I c-bet this flop I make it 16, not 12. C/f turn. These kind of players just don't give up enough with top pair or a draw IMO and we don't know that we have any more than 4 clean outs. If this player 3-bets PF, standard play is to fold and wait for a better spot. Occasionally 4-bet.

3) Fold. We're getting less than 3/1 on our draw. Against a nit there is no fold equity here I think so pushing is out of the question. Also, it may look to him like we're drawing to spades, so if we complete our draw with a spade we may not get paid anyway. OTOH, if this is true then it gives us 7 more outs to bluff with on the river, but the combined possibilities of either not getting paid off or a big bluff failing to work still makes this a turn fold for me.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, I am coming round to the idea of calling the turn in #1. He has a hand he wants to play, as evidenced by his flop check/raise. We may well only have seven outs though, but taken to an extreme, if we check/fold a board pairing club but bet 2/3 pot when we hit one of our seven outs, we will probably average enough to win with our play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we only have seven outs, we need to make 125 on the river when we hit, which means that we basically have to shove (we have $140 left on the river). And he has to call us every time. He will not have a set every time and he will not call a shove with it every time, so the plan of check/folding the dirty outs and betting the clean outs heavy doesn't work IMO.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

warning: uNL player.

using only 'at the table maths' I would

1. fold. i don't think we can count on the implied odds if we hit a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] river if we just call, and I'm not sure we have enough fold equity given the checkraise.*


2. I would normally want to fold AQo OOP to a 3b, but I could see a call here if willing to stack off with TPTK.*

I don't like the 2barrel on that turn card.

In this hand either our overs are good and we have low implied odds, or we are drawing to a K only and we have decent implied odds. If we're drawing to 10 outs we need 4:1 pot odds and we're getting 3:1. I think we might be able to extract ~$20 on the river if we hit, so case a is a thin call for me.

If we're drawing to 4 outs I think we'd need to average getting a PSB out of him on the river. That seems a bit steep, but achievable, so another thin call.

I think raising would be a bad idea since we'll be drawing mega thin if we get called and we might get shoved on a lot which would be annoying.


3. Villain could have a nut flush draw here as much as a set, no? If we think he'll fold a set to our represented flush on the river I think we can call, but if he won't we probably have to fold since it will be difficult to win the pot if we both miss our draws (he could check to induce a bluff with the missed FD with a set too much).


Thanks for the post, I'm really bad at estimating the implied odds I need at the table - what's the quickest way?



*I guess people checkraise lighter at 200nl so maybe we do have enough FE, idk. Obviously the 3b could be light given our and his position/image, but it's still not a great spot.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the post, I'm really bad at estimating the implied odds I need at the table - what's the quickest way?

[/ QUOTE ]
If the pot is $40 and the bet is $20 to you but you have a 1/6 shot of winning - if you call, the pot is $80, which is four times the bet to you. You therefore need to make $40 on the river on average.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

[ QUOTE ]



[ QUOTE ]
subq: if he repops from the button, once again, its up to stats, if hes like 27/24 type

[/ QUOTE ]
Id label a tag/lag as something like 24/20 or so, vpip higher then 22 for sure and pfr close to vpip.

[/ QUOTE ]
i feel this is incorrect, tho its just about the terminology. i guess general consensus is roughly:
nit<15/13>tag<24/20>lag

edit: oh, i should read more carefuly. as for a "lag/tag", saying something in between, your stats seem good.

However, the more I think the more I believe that we cant really fold #1. Calling seems bad, so I push. I guess its really calling<folding<pushing or smth.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

Great post BF. uNL donk here saying...

1. Meh. We don't have the direct odds, but I'd probably base the decision on game conditions/image/recent history, as the odds aren't a million miles off and maybe our IO's are ok in certain spots. In a complete vacuum, fold.


2. Sub question 1: Fold to 3b. Ok, he "defends his cbets religiously", but AQ OOP is just too nasty a hand to proceed with.

Main question: 34. I am awful at judging second barrell spots, but here I'd say our read on LagTag who "defends his cbets religiously" makes this a bet. Also, offering this player the opportunity to float is bread-and-butter to him.

Sub question 2: Fold. If we don't fire again, I think we've given up the right to call. Again, we don't have direct odds to call to 6 outer, and we don't even know if all those are clean winners.


3. This is a bit like 1. as we don't quite have the direct odds but this is closer IMO as our outs are more hidden than in 1. That said, I think I fold as a spade on river is either going to kill us or our action. Yeah, actually I go with fold.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

1) fold

2) if we check, the best play is to fold to his 25. Betting the turn is good, but if called, i think we'll be firing just about any river

3) looks like a spade draw or a pp 99-QQ. Best standard play with given info is to call turn,

-check behind a 7 or a 9 river,
-maybe call a bet on a 7 or 9 river given a specific read based in part on the bet size,
-raise a bet on a non spade T or a 5,
-call a bet on spade T or a 5,
-raise a bet on any other non spade river.

folding turn doesn't sound bad either but the above is probably more +EV, and much better in meta-game value

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

hand 1- It's between calling and pushing for me. I'm leaning towards calling because the c/r looks strong and his turn bet doesn't really narrow his range that much, i think. if I do hit on the river- My image will determine how much to bet.

hand 2- A player who defends his button religiously is usually a very capable floater- so this situation sucks. he could have sets/TP/MP/a draw/ complete air. The trickier he is the more likely I am willing to c/f. If he's a super insanely floater time I might even c/r (ok probably not- I am a lag fish). We also have 4 pure outs and it sucks to get raised. I think i pitch it.

3- Push. I'm surprised more people haven't advocated this. That king is a good card for us. Most nits will bet more on that drawy turn to protect there sets. I think usually he has like 99-JJ here and is just trying to find out where he stands. I think he has a K next to never.
He'll fold his FDs here and other hands like A8 and PPs most of the time, too.

I think he only calls us with sets and pair + combo draws, and even then we have outs.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

push sounds good in the 2nd hand actually.. it's about 160 more, and there's no way he can call with a draw, 99-QQ, or even a K

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

[ QUOTE ]

#3. A bad player (140, very loose passive) limps UTG, and we (240) isolate raise 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the button to 10 total. BB cold calls, as does the limper. (BB has 383 and is a nit where this cold call is AQ-AT, JJ-22, possibly a little wider range given UTG's presence, but not looser then that). Flop (~30) comes 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and they check to us. We timebank a little bit contemplating a cbet (validity in checking) but opt to fire away with 23. BB calls, and UTG folds. Ok, lost the bad player, got the good player, terrific. Turn (~76) comes the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and BB bets 44. What do we do?

[/ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't try to isolate this villain based only on your description here. If he's bad because he's too loose (i.e., he calls to much), I want to have a hand that's ahead of his range hot-and-cold. If he tends to call preflop liberally and then fold a lot after the flop, then it's fine.

I'm having trouble parsing your description of the BB's range. Possibly wider but not looser? Are you're saying that the range listed represented a looser than normal range for him? At any rate, I'd think a range that includes ATo would also include KQs, which is one sort of hand that I put the BB on after this action.

I think the right play is to call here and bet a lot of rivers. If he checks a spade, then I think we have a good chance of stealing it. If we hit our straight on a non-spade, then we're getting paid.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Three somewhat common occurrences. I love making these quizzes and its been a little while since my last one. I'm going to sleep in a little bit so if this attracts any attention I'll post my thoughts. I'm sure when I have a date established with my book being published these types of (self congratulatory/promotionary) posts will increase in frequency. That said, feel free to argue with any play up to the decision but understand that the hand is played largely how I would've played it. Obviously I am not egotistical to assume that is the "only" way the hand can be played, or the optimal way, but just be content knowing that I play it that way. Since this is SSNL, we'll assume the game is NL200 6max.

#1. We're in the CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], we (200, unknown image) raise to 8 pf. BB (245, you have a few notes/stats but just a typical player with somewhat loose TAG stats) defends his blind. Flop (~17 minus rake) comes A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], checked to us, we bet 12, BB check raises to 32 total. We call. Turn (80) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] villain bets 40. What do we do?


[/ QUOTE ]
If you can't spot the nit in your first half hour at the table, then you are the nit.

Call for implied odds. If it turns out we're wrong and he won't pay off on the river, we're losing only $8 in EV by making this call.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Three somewhat common occurrences. I love making these quizzes and its been a little while since my last one. I'm going to sleep in a little bit so if this attracts any attention I'll post my thoughts. I'm sure when I have a date established with my book being published these types of (self congratulatory/promotionary) posts will increase in frequency. That said, feel free to argue with any play up to the decision but understand that the hand is played largely how I would've played it. Obviously I am not egotistical to assume that is the "only" way the hand can be played, or the optimal way, but just be content knowing that I play it that way. Since this is SSNL, we'll assume the game is NL200 6max.

#1. We're in the CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], we (200, unknown image) raise to 8 pf. BB (245, you have a few notes/stats but just a typical player with somewhat loose TAG stats) defends his blind. Flop (~17 minus rake) comes A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], checked to us, we bet 12, BB check raises to 32 total. We call. Turn (80) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] villain bets 40. What do we do?


[/ QUOTE ]
If you can't spot the nit in your first half hour at the table, then you are the nit.

Call for implied odds. If it turns out we're wrong and he won't pay off on the river, we're losing only $8 in EV by making this call.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, we're losing $44. 4.1:1 to hit, 40:120 to call, we need 40:164 for the call to be neutral EV, if we assume 0 implied odds and that we have 9 clean outs.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

In hand #1, how often would we guess that we're up against Ax [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and drawing dead? 2-4%? Is that enough to lean our decision?

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

1. I might 3 bet the flop vs some players. On the turn I like pushing or folding. He could be c/r the flop with anything. I don't like calling, seems pretty neutral at best? might as well get some FE too.

2. I would c/c the turn.

3. I may opt NOT to cbet here...but idk. As played I would probably just dump this.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

[ QUOTE ]
In hand #1, how often would we guess that we're up against Ax [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and drawing dead? 2-4%? Is that enough to lean our decision?

[/ QUOTE ]
This is one of the reasons I like a fold best here. Suited aces add all sorts of 2pr and pr+fd hands to his range. And 45 just got there so I don't think a semibluff (my first instinct) folds out enough hands vs a TAG (who isn't likely to have AT,AJ,AQ here).

Hand 2 I usually bomb the turn. If we check, usually c/f sometimes c/r. I'd fold to the 3b the first time.

3- shove, maybe fold I'll have to look it over once more.
yeah, shove looks good.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

[ QUOTE ]

No, we're losing $44.


[/ QUOTE ]
Nope.
[ QUOTE ]

4.1:1 to hit, 40:120 to call, we need 40:164 for the call to be neutral EV, if we assume 0 implied odds and that we have 9 clean outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
This part is true, but for some reason you're not giving us any equity in the extra pot size.

There's 160 in the pot after we call. We win 20% of the time. We have $32 in pot equity. We paid $40 for this equity, so we lost $8 in EV.

If we were getting 120 : 30, then we would be break-even. We're overpaying $10. But we still win 20% of the overpayment pot, so we don't lose all of that.

Try this thought experiment. There's 0 in the pot. We're a dog at 49.9% to win the pot. Our opponent bets a billion. We're wrong to call anything here, but we certainly don't lose a billion dollars by making this call.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

1) I'm folding, RIO at its finest. Are you really folding to a push if the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls?

2) If he 3-bets, I'm folding.
I'm normally firing again on the turn with 2 overcards and a gutshot, but that may be a leak because the turn didn't change anything. As played, I'm folding...again, RIO because we have no idea if our Q/A outs are live.

3) Again, RIO- we aren't sure all our straight outs are live with the FD.

I hate draws- I never hit- FTP sucks.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

1 - Call.

2 - Check/fold.

3 - Shove.

That's how I'd play it anyways.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

Also, hand 2 I wouldn't bet the flop. Is that bad?

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

1) Call and pray for a spade... I'd most likely put him on Ax, so even if a K hits on the river, were toast. If he led more than 1/2 pot, I'd probably fold. (He did CR the flop,,,may put him on a set of 6's?)

2)Sub Q: I don't like AQo OOP... If he 3 bet, I'm 50/50 folding...
Lead for 30. He should know that if we play anything UTG, we have a hand... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] If called, try to get to a cheap showdown on river if possible. (We have wopping 4 outs to da str8! + any A or Q may be goot enough here??? Gotta watch thte str8's)
Call the 25...

3) Were most likely behind here to Kx here. We have ~17% chance to pike our OESD on river. I'd fold here... (Don't be a fish!) [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, hand 2 I wouldn't bet the flop. Is that bad?

[/ QUOTE ]WE HAVE A GUTSHOT.

Really though, I'd bet it (but I c-bet too much prob), but more like 14-15.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

No, we're losing $44.


[/ QUOTE ]
Nope.
[ QUOTE ]

4.1:1 to hit, 40:120 to call, we need 40:164 for the call to be neutral EV, if we assume 0 implied odds and that we have 9 clean outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
This part is true, but for some reason you're not giving us any equity in the extra pot size.

There's 160 in the pot after we call. We win 20% of the time. We have $32 in pot equity. We paid $40 for this equity, so we lost $8 in EV.

If we were getting 120 : 30, then we would be break-even. We're overpaying $10. But we still win 20% of the overpayment pot, so we don't lose all of that.

Try this thought experiment. There's 0 in the pot. We're a dog at 49.9% to win the pot. Our opponent bets a billion. We're wrong to call anything here, but we certainly don't lose a billion dollars by making this call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Bah, I suck at teh maths and you're right.
But.. it's very misleading to say we're losing "only" $8. $8 is 2PTBB and if we keep making this type of call it would really cut into our winrate.

We need to be confident that we have a fair amount of implied odds, and that we're not getting ourselves in trouble with dirty outs or even drawing dead.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

Dubbel barrel AQ ftw, and maybe fire the river if he only calls the turn. What is up with all the nittinesh?

Last hand is a push since his line looks like a blocker. Its possible he just called the flop with a set or whatever to get the lagtard to stay in, but i doubt it. Also of course this could be something like KQss.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, hand 2 I wouldn't bet the flop. Is that bad?

[/ QUOTE ]
WE HAVE A GUTSHOT.

Really though, I'd bet it (but I c-bet too much prob), but more like 14-15.

[/ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't cbet on a board like this normally... But yeh, we have a gutshot, I would cbet this hand. I think that having that extra equity makes it worthwhile.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

1) we are getting 80-40 on our draw, or 2-1, the flush is to hit slightly less than 4-1. However, we can fold on the river UI, so if we think we can our opponent to call a bet over $80+ on the river, making our turn call 40 to win 160+, then our call is correct, if we think he will fold too often to this bet when we hit then it is correct to fold on the turn, so it is player dependent

2) a little more complex, we might only be drawing dead to the straight as our hole cards may make the villain 2 pair so we need to consider reverse implied odds, if villain bets we must call 25 to win 68, these odds are not good considering the implied odds

i see too many people just saying fold or something without good explanations, if it is checked to us here we need to consider how often we think the bet will take the pot down, if we bet 30 then we are laying 30 to win 43 so this has to work 30/73 times to be successful, we need to think of the bet sizes here and how often they will work. Then we need to consider our river line if he calls, do we fire again and if so will both bluffs be successful enough to make a profit given our odds on the pot, if we fired 30 on turn and need to fire another 80 on the river, 110 to win 43+30 that is in pot from flop and villain, then our play needs to work 110/183 to be successful, plus we need to factor in the 10% chance if we hit and get paid off. This is complex and many different scenarios can be divulged in deeper

3)I am probably folding hand, we need to call 44 to win 76+44=120, so we are gettin 120-44 on our odds, we are 4-1 to hit the straight about, a little more like 16% plus 2 spades may not be good so I will subtract an out here and give us 7, so we are a 39-7 dog here. He is nitty so I don't think we can push him off his bet here and I don't think we can make up enough ground on the river if we hit to make this profitable


Okay, so where is my prize?

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the post, I'm really bad at estimating the implied odds I need at the table - what's the quickest way?

[/ QUOTE ]
If the pot is $40 and the bet is $20 to you but you have a 1/6 shot of winning - if you call, the pot is $80, which is four times the bet to you. You therefore need to make $40 on the river on average.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is incorrect sciolist, this is going to hurt ur bottom line if u dont do this math

making 40 on the river makes us 120 to the 20 we put in on the turn but 20 of that money is ours already so we can count that, we need to make 60 on the river, 120-20 here to make it correct or slightly more. You cannot count the money you put in on the turn again because you committed it and not villain.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

I like a 2nd barrel in hand 2 because nothing really changed on the turn.

Hands that will likely fold to good sized bet (thought 1st two hands are questionable): 8 AQ hands, 16 KQ hands, 9 AT hands, 12 QT hands, 16 98 hands and allocate about 15 combos (weighted) for stubborn pocket pairs like 99-55.

Hands that will call raise 9 AJ hands, 6 JJ, 6 TT, 6 44 hands, and 9 JT hands. I 'm assuming he doesn't trap pre with AA-QQ.

So, 76 combos he will fold versus 36 he will call/raise. Even if he calls more often on turn with drawy hands (KQ/AQ), it's still a good double barrel.

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

*GRUNCH*

1: We probably have 9 outs, maybe less if he has a set which is possible considering he c/r the flop which isn't all that dry (maybe to charge draws). So there is 120 in the pot and we need to call 40 so were getting 3 : 1. We are 9/37 to make our hand or 4.1 : 1. We are calling 40 so need to win 165 on average to make it breakeven which means on the river we need to win 45. The pot will be 160 with 120 effective stacks. IMO we will be able to win more than 45 on average making it a +EV call.

2: I think villains range is pretty wide on the flop here because the board is pretty dry, he also seems like the kind of player that likes to float. I would probably c/r the turn here sometimes as I think he folds quite a lot, and c/c it sometimes too. This may be off though....

3: We have 8 outs so are 4.9 : 1 to make our hand. We have to call 44 so need to win 215 to make it +EV. There is 120 in the pot so we need to win 95 on the river. The pot will be 164 and the effective stacks 163. IMO villain isn't bluffing here very often and I don't think he has a draw either, unless he had something like KQss. So considering we need only to win just over a 1/2 psb on the river I think that given his range we should be able to do this, therefore I call.

Thoughts??

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

[ QUOTE ]
1) we are getting 80-40 on our draw, or 2-1, the flush is to hit slightly less than 4-1. However, we can fold on the river UI, so if we think we can our opponent to call a bet over $80+ on the river, making our turn call 40 to win 160+, then our call is correct, if we think he will fold too often to this bet when we hit then it is correct to fold on the turn, so it is player dependent


[/ QUOTE ]

Johnnyrocket: We are getting calling $40 for a $120 pot = 3:1 not 2:1

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

[ QUOTE ]
1) we are getting 80-40 on our draw, or 2-1, the flush is to hit slightly less than 4-1.

[/ QUOTE ]
The pot is laying us (80 + 40) : 40 = 120:40 = 3:1

Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
 

[ QUOTE ]

this is incorrect sciolist, this is going to hurt ur bottom line if u dont do this math

making 40 on the river makes us 120 to the 20 we put in on the turn but 20 of that money is ours already so we can count that, we need to make 60 on the river, 120-20 here to make it correct or slightly more. You cannot count the money you put in on the turn again because you committed it and not villain.

[/ QUOTE ]
sciolist is using fractions of the total pots, not the ratio of losses to wins. He's correct to include the hero's call when comparing to 1/6 rather than 6:1.