Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

I am just curious to know, of those of you that still have a bet on someone to win Idol, who do you have?
I have Melinda.

Re: Who did you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

I have positions on all 3 of the remaining contestants...and I'll basically profit equally regardless of who wins, if I don't sell off anyone.

Re: Who did you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

Melinda and one on Blake. And Thing quit 3-betting my blind steals kthx.

Re: Who did you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

I have cashed out all positions (for a wee profit [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) and am FR'ing on the one contract I have lef on Blake.

Re: Who did you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

Jordin.

Re: Who did you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Melinda and one on Blake. And Thing quit 3-betting my blind steals kthx.

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Who are you on Stars? Sorry, btw.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

Had mostly Jordin and Melinda since the top 12. Sold the Melinda's at $51 to guarantee profit. Been freerolling with Jordin ever since. I did sell a few Jordins at $57 though but will let the rest ride. Can't lose now.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

I'm riding Jordin and Melinda. I'm not gonna make as much as I would've hoped before the season due to bad timing of bet purchaes and some poor pre-season handicapping, but as long as one of them wins I'm up a few thousand. I lose around $20k if that singing vagina Blake wins. But I'm not worried about it.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

I am in a [censored] position this year killed me.

I invested $1500.

I have 10 Blake and 15 Melinda and a possible +$120 if Blake LL than Jordin.

What happens with this LL and remaining shares is how much i am going to cash out of this thing. Any ideas on what you guys would do in my position.

I need a Blake Melinda final, but I am scared that Jordin is going to spoil everything for me.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

Chances of a Blake and Melinda final are probably as good as Sanjaya coming back. I would recommend picking up some Jordin or at least invest in some Blake and/or Melinda elimination props.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

If we're all so clever, why didn't any of us bet all the money we had in the world on Lakisha *not* winning after the top-24 show? At that point, Simon said the other contestants might as well go home, but with a little foresight we could have seen she was very unlikely to win. It'd have been a good bet - I wonder what the odds would have been?

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

jordin is at +825 on bookmaker to go home this week. while i agree that it's very unlikely she will, anything can happen. i like the bet. i just threw away more money im sure though.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If we're all so clever, why didn't any of us bet all the money we had in the world on Lakisha *not* winning after the top-24 show? At that point, Simon said the other contestants might as well go home, but with a little foresight we could have seen she was very unlikely to win. It'd have been a good bet - I wonder what the odds would have been?

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It's so easy to say this in hindsight. I also remember when people were touting Sundance and saying that Blake's gimmick wouldn't get him far. At T24, Lakisha was a favorite - shorting her would be a gamble. Why didn't we short Melinda when she was a favorite priced at 54? I'm sure some of us did, but there was a point where she was miles ahead of everyone, a lock for the top 2, and now look - she's vulnerable this week.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

i have 32 blake contracts at wsex, and $50 @4-1 on jordin with bodog.

i've decided to hold my blake's and pray for the other 2 to die, thus allowing me a chance to turn a small profit for the year.

i was considering selling some of them, but i'd rather go for it than simply get a couple of hundred back.

if he makes it to T2, i may reconsider.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

I cleared $5600 on LL and elimination bets and will win an extra 555 if blake wins 1116 Jordin and 1471 if melinda wins

same situation I was in last year not much gamble in me

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If we're all so clever, why didn't any of us bet all the money we had in the world on Lakisha *not* winning after the top-24 show? At that point, Simon said the other contestants might as well go home, but with a little foresight we could have seen she was very unlikely to win. It'd have been a good bet - I wonder what the odds would have been?

[/ QUOTE ]

Didnt bet all the money I had in the world but I shorted 35 Lakishas at an average price of 19.8

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am in a [censored] position this year killed me.

I invested $1500.

I have 10 Blake and 15 Melinda and a possible +$120 if Blake LL than Jordin.

What happens with this LL and remaining shares is how much i am going to cash out of this thing. Any ideas on what you guys would do in my position.

I need a Blake Melinda final, but I am scared that Jordin is going to spoil everything for me.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a very bad mindset for a winning gambler to have. The $1500 is gone and you should forget about it. As poker players say, money in the pot doesn't belong to you anymore. Simply maximize your EV from here on out.

1. The only question with the 10 Blake and the 15 Melinda should be whether holding or selling has higher EV.

2. Unless you have some way to unwind the $120 LL bet there is nothing to think about. Wait and see what the result is.

3. Look around for any new +EV betting opportunities that are within your bankroll.

This forum is no different from the poker forums. Winning gambling is about making good +EV decisions, minding your bankroll, and then letting the results take care of themselves. Managing for results is for fish.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If we're all so clever, why didn't any of us bet all the money we had in the world on Lakisha *not* winning after the top-24 show? At that point, Simon said the other contestants might as well go home, but with a little foresight we could have seen she was very unlikely to win. It'd have been a good bet - I wonder what the odds would have been?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's funny because back then her odds were so low that Iwouldn't touch her. In fact I was considering shorting her.
Then she came crashing back down to earth and her odds started to skyrocket and then I started to bet everthing I could on her.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

[ QUOTE ]
jordin is at +825 on bookmaker to go home this week. while i agree that it's very unlikely she will, anything can happen. i like the bet. i just threw away more money im sure though.

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If I was playing there I would make a limit bet on that. I don't think she is going home this week but with the apparent blind support Blake gets along with a potential great week by Melinda it's not out of the question that Jordin leave. GREAT BET!!!

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If we're all so clever, why didn't any of us bet all the money we had in the world on Lakisha *not* winning after the top-24 show? At that point, Simon said the other contestants might as well go home, but with a little foresight we could have seen she was very unlikely to win. It'd have been a good bet - I wonder what the odds would have been?

[/ QUOTE ]

iirc, some of us were definitely saying that Lakisha was way overpriced when she was at like 25.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am in a [censored] position this year killed me.

I invested $1500.

I have 10 Blake and 15 Melinda and a possible +$120 if Blake LL than Jordin.

What happens with this LL and remaining shares is how much i am going to cash out of this thing. Any ideas on what you guys would do in my position.

I need a Blake Melinda final, but I am scared that Jordin is going to spoil everything for me.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a very bad mindset for a winning gambler to have. The $1500 is gone and you should forget about it. As poker players say, money in the pot doesn't belong to you anymore. Simply maximize your EV from here on out.

1. The only question with the 10 Blake and the 15 Melinda should be whether holding or selling has higher EV.

2. Unless you have some way to unwind the $120 LL bet there is nothing to think about. Wait and see what the result is.

3. Look around for any new +EV betting opportunities that are within your bankroll.

This forum is no different from the poker forums. Winning gambling is about making good +EV decisions, minding your bankroll, and then letting the results take care of themselves. Managing for results is for fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great post/advice. I couldn't agree more.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am in a [censored] position this year killed me.

I invested $1500.

I have 10 Blake and 15 Melinda and a possible +$120 if Blake LL than Jordin.

What happens with this LL and remaining shares is how much i am going to cash out of this thing. Any ideas on what you guys would do in my position.

I need a Blake Melinda final, but I am scared that Jordin is going to spoil everything for me.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a very bad mindset for a winning gambler to have. The $1500 is gone and you should forget about it. As poker players say, money in the pot doesn't belong to you anymore. Simply maximize your EV from here on out.

1. The only question with the 10 Blake and the 15 Melinda should be whether holding or selling has higher EV.

2. Unless you have some way to unwind the $120 LL bet there is nothing to think about. Wait and see what the result is.

3. Look around for any new +EV betting opportunities that are within your bankroll.

This forum is no different from the poker forums. Winning gambling is about making good +EV decisions, minding your bankroll, and then letting the results take care of themselves. Managing for results is for fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great post/advice. I couldn't agree more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes AMEN to that JPT III. StellarWind comes up with some more excellent advice and/or analysis.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If we're all so clever, why didn't any of us bet all the money we had in the world on Lakisha *not* winning after the top-24 show? At that point, Simon said the other contestants might as well go home, but with a little foresight we could have seen she was very unlikely to win. It'd have been a good bet - I wonder what the odds would have been?

[/ QUOTE ]

Um... right after Lakisha's "And I Am Telling You" I shorted her at -300. She was the odds-on fav. I posted about it on this forum. I also had Blake LL Lakisha and Jordin LL Lakisha.

At this point I've cashed out Melinda stock and am riding on Jordin, tho I will break even if she doesn't win because I have a bet on an o23.5 year old winner at VIP (got it at -120).

I also have a nice sized bet on at least 1 male in the final 2 at +150, so I'm really hoping Melinda goes this week.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

I still have 100 contract of Jordin (ave price $7.10).

$1100 on Jordin to last longer than Blake

and I'm short a whomping 10 contract on Blake.

The other position have either been cashed out or voted off.

Re: Who did you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

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Jordin.

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Just wanted to add that I got Melinda to go home this week at +253 on Pinny.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

I added a couple bets. I bet at two places for Jordin to go home. I took 8-1. I don't think I'll win but I think it's a very good bet. Suzy brought this to my attention because I forgot to even look at the elimination odds.
Win or lose: Thanks Suzy!

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

I just put in an offer on Blake +325. I don't like his voice but I like the support he gets from the voters and I think based on previous voting it can go either way. I can't believe I am about to say this but GO Blake!!!

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

Hey someone picked up my offer of +325. Was it anyone here? I'd hate to take anyone's money here but at the same time I would be happy, as long as I am losing, to give it to someone here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] GO BLAKE!!!! I figure if Taylor can win then.....

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

All I have left is one contract on Blake and an old LL on him vs. Jordin
So, Vegan...we be rootin' in da same camp!!
GOOOO BLAKE!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

well, i wasnt strong enough to quit AI betting. looks like we're in this one together too, vegan. i had blake +330 to outlast jordin on wsex from a couple weeks ago, and now i just put a bunch more on blake at +315. we'll probably lose, but you never know on that stupid show.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

Well I am glad you're both in it with me. I don't like our horse but the fans do. If he actually performs well, which would shock me, I think he will win.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

Geesh....
You two are bumming me out with the negativity. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
Come on kids, let the good karma flow and the chips land where they may! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

If you bring back the beautiful kitty I will be optimistic. I love your kitty. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

http://i160.photobucket.com/albums/t...owetta/hug.jpg

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

I have a prop bet on Jordin that I can't wait to collect (it's from a non-believer). But I was sad to see Melinda voted off.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

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I have a prop bet on Jordin that I can't wait to collect (it's from a non-believer). But I was sad to see Melinda voted off.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was sad to see Melinda go too.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

Alright Shrug three for the price of one!! But I love the avatar kitty best. Welcome back my feline friend!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Ok so even though Blake doesn't have the strongest voice in the competition he is definitely a talented guy and his performances, sometimes, can be quite good. I think he can put all together and beat out Jordin in the finals. Plus he has plenty of fans and he seems to be a genuinely nice guy.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

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Plus he has plenty of fans and he seems to be a genuinely nice guy.

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This year's top 12 seem to be about the nicest group of people around.

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hey someone picked up my offer of +325. Was it anyone here? I'd hate to take anyone's money here but at the same time I would be happy, as long as I am losing, to give it to someone here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] GO BLAKE!!!! I figure if Taylor can win then.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah it was me. Hedging again [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Who do you have a bet on to win Idol?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hey someone picked up my offer of +325. Was it anyone here? I'd hate to take anyone's money here but at the same time I would be happy, as long as I am losing, to give it to someone here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] GO BLAKE!!!! I figure if Taylor can win then.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah it was me. Hedging again [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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How did you flip your position so that shorting blake is a hedge? you just posted a few days ago if blake won youd be down 20k