KTo on A high flop
 

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5.4SB, 5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls, 2 folds.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4.2BB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7.2BB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises</font>, Hero folds, UTG+2 calls.

Results:
Final pot: 11.2BB


Looking back the hand I think I should fold the turn.
Do you think the flop call is bad? A raise or fold would be better?

Re: KTo on A high flop
 

Flop call is thin, especially since you really can't count the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]/T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as full outs. I'm not sure you can make up the deficit on the turn if you hit, so I would fold the flop. As played, def fold the turn.

-J

Re: KTo on A high flop
 

i'm more excited about the flop call than jaran is, but agree that you can fold the turn.

Re: KTo on A high flop
 

Weird play from UTG+1 on the turn, but this is an easy turn fold. I probably wouldn't get involed on the flop with second pair and a drawy board.

Re: KTo on A high flop
 

its all fine

Re: KTo on A high flop
 

I would 3 bet the flop and hope for isolation and call down if its HU otherwise fold to any further aggression.

Re: KTo on A high flop
 

I fold the flop. I don't even think its that close.

Re: KTo on A high flop
 

Small pot = fold flop.

Re: KTo on A high flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would 3 bet the flop and hope for isolation and call down if its HU otherwise fold to any further aggression.

[/ QUOTE ]

SSSSSSSSSPPPPEEEEEEEEEWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!!!!

There's already a caller between you and the bettor. How often do you actually isolate?

[ QUOTE ]
I fold the flop. I don't even think its that close.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Small pot = fold flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

NNNNNNNNNIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTTTTTTTTSSSSSSSSS!! !!!!!!! (Okay, folding here isn't nearly as bad as raising the flop, and it isn't a terrible fold.)

You're getting 7.5:1 immediate and the two players left to act in this pot have already checked. *MAYBE* you get check-raised here, but it's very likely they are calling or folding. I'd give hero 4-4.5 outs here, which means that he needs about 10:1 or 11:1. With two players in the pot, this means collecting either 1 bet from both players or collecting two bets from one player. Since hero has position on two players, he is very likely going to be able to get it, and very possibly more. A peel here is just fine.

Re: KTo on A high flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
NNNNNNNNNIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTTTTTTTTSSSSSSSSS!! !!!!!!! (Okay, folding here isn't nearly as bad as raising the flop, and it isn't a terrible fold.)

[/ QUOTE ]

You're over-counting your outs.

Re: KTo on A high flop
 

Calling the flop is OK, folding is OK, too (with a possible flush draw and 4 opponents I tend more towards folding). Fold turn 100%.

I have no idea how anyone can ever raise this flop unless he hates money.

I don't know how we can 3-bet the flop, given that nobody raised so far.

Re: KTo on A high flop
 

[ QUOTE ]

You're over-counting your outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I first read this hand I was thinking about 3 outs.

That was just a guess figuring K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] are bad much of the time, the remaining T good most of the time, and the other K's maybe half the time (behind QJ or any Ax two pair).

Does anyone really quantify these estimates with any more accuracy than this?

For instance, we could figure out statistically the chance that one of the four opponents (with random starting hands) has a heart draw and discount accordingly.

Come to think of it, maybe it'd be a good idea for a post to set up a "count your outs..." quiz of some kind. I might put some scenerios together where I get into trouble.

Re: KTo on A high flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
NNNNNNNNNIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTTTTTTTTSSSSSSSSS!! !!!!!!! (Okay, folding here isn't nearly as bad as raising the flop, and it isn't a terrible fold.)

[/ QUOTE ]

You're over-counting your outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many outs do you see?

Re: KTo on A high flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
NNNNNNNNNIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTTTTTTTTSSSSSSSSS!! !!!!!!! (Okay, folding here isn't nearly as bad as raising the flop, and it isn't a terrible fold.)

[/ QUOTE ]

You're over-counting your outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many outs do you see?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd call it 2.5-3. Beyond just the flush draw, a king puts 3 to a straight on the board, and QJ is an easy limping hand at this sort of table. This is a huge rio-red-flag hand for me.

Re: KTo on A high flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call it 2.5-3. Beyond just the flush draw, a king puts 3 to a straight on the board, and QJ is an easy limping hand at this sort of table. This is a huge rio-red-flag hand for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd call that overly conservative. It's also true that QT, JT, and KJ (and possibly KQ) are limping hands, and those hands will pay two bets to see the river with their pair plus gutshot combos, plus they'll (sometimes) pay off on the river, and this increases your implied odds. I think the balance comes out pretty close to even, so that the only necessary discount is the flush draw.

Edit: Added parthetical comments