... and here comes the next... (Playalong)
 

Ok, it's my first. I'd say there are some at least remotely interesting spots in it and. At any rate: Go easy on me...

The table had filled up just like 3 orbits ago or so and was currently in the process of tightening down to the usual Crypto standard of 20/9 or so.

The cast: Loose-passive in different shades of grey...

SB: 33/17.5/0.7 Though he appeared somewhat passive, he didn't stand out for calling down a lot of trash hands. No calling station by any standard, just passive postflop with the accomanying plays that are typical for this brand (donks instead of c/r etc.) His wtsd was 28% (not that I look at this during play time, but just to back up my read of him not being a calling station by some figures... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])
For the small sample of hands I had on him, he has an Attmpt-to-steal of 75% and a Fold-BB-to-steal of 0%.

BB: Similar stats of 33/8/0.5 In a previous hand where I opened in UTG+2, he coldcalled in MP2 and called down with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on a K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] board (I bet each street and took it with KQs).
He's more of a calling station and running pretty hot. No idea how aggressively he defends his blinds.

UTG: Total fish. Runs by the stats of 76/4/0.5 and has a Wtsd of 70%+. For the last few orbits I've been on this table, he's just gotten hammered by BB who seemingly hits every board against him and takes him down time and again. He's not steaming though (at least from what I can tell) - he just keeps calling.

Btn: Short guest appearance. I don't know how he survives at this level (or how he endures the boredom), but he's playing a 12/2/0.8 style.


Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 5 folds, Hero ???

Re: ... and here comes the next... (Playalong)
 

33/17 seems pretty laggy to me

i think raise to iso is better here than limp. it's a better multiway than hu hand but we want to get hu with the bad player with a better-than-average hand and if nothing else we might take it down with a cbet if we both miss the flop. limping and letting the blinds come in with j4, q7, k3 or a2 or whatever, that have some outs against us, can't be right. also this way we can buy the button.

cliffs notes: isoraise in position and ship the dead money in the pot.

Re: ... and here comes the next... (Playalong)
 

[ QUOTE ]
33/17 seems pretty laggy to me

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, agree, and it might be that with more hands, his AF changes significantly. At playing time however, I found his .8 AF to be the most noteworthy of his stats. Also, there definitely IS this sort of player who have some decent pre stats and play quite weakish post. That's my take on him at this point, anyway.

Re: ... and here comes the next... (Playalong)
 

I'm a nit at heart, so my default would be to just fold here. Although, I raise JTs, so I guess it's close. Even with SB being rather likely to cold call, I still prefer a raise over a call to buy the button and perhaps see a free turn if needed.

Re: ... and here comes the next... (Playalong)
 

folds

Re: ... and here comes the next... (Playalong)
 

Calls with a good multiway hand which is not strong enough to isolate given the somewhat loose blinds.

Tighter blinds + fit or fold fish = Raise!

Re: ... and here comes the next... (Playalong)
 

Raising is pretty bad here, guys. Sure, you want to play w/ a bad player and take his money. However, your hand his a dog to his range. Your implied odds are good, though, esp. if the blinds come, too. You don't want them to fold, because there presence will turn your equity deficit into an equity edge.

Raise hands that have showdown value, but not this hand. I'd raise K9o here, maybe Q9o and K7o if the blinds were tighter. You don't have enough high card strength/showdown value here to warrant isolation.

Re: ... and here comes the next... (Playalong)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a nit at heart, so my default would be to just fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

(using Monte Carlo)

SB folds

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.963% 34.48% 01.48% 17494597 750198.83 { T9s }
Hand 1: 29.537% 28.20% 01.34% 14306596 678352.83 { random }
Hand 2: 34.500% 32.96% 01.54% 16721714 780653.33 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }

SB calls

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.969% 26.61% 01.36% 13523905 692694.08 { T9s }
Hand 1: 24.326% 23.12% 01.20% 11753101 611766.08 { 77-22, A9s-A2s, KTs-K2s, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, KJo-KTo, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 21.964% 20.78% 01.19% 10559955 604311.08 { random }
Hand 3: 25.741% 24.43% 01.31% 12419884 664186.75 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }

Btn calls, SB calls

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.296% 20.32% 00.98% 10305320 494623.40 { T9s }
Hand 1: 26.838% 25.88% 00.96% 13125933 484628.73 { TT-77, A9s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 2: 18.108% 17.21% 00.89% 8729639 453731.48 { 77-22, A9s-A2s, KTs-K2s, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, KJo-KTo, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 15.949% 15.04% 00.91% 7628388 459764.40 { random }
Hand 4: 17.808% 16.76% 01.05% 8498511 532649.98 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }

Re: ... and here comes the next... (Playalong)
 

Does that imply that you're limping Wookie or are you folding?

Re: ... and here comes the next... (Playalong)
 

[ QUOTE ]
33/17 seems pretty laggy to me

i think raise to iso is better here than limp. it's a better multiway than hu hand but we want to get hu with the bad player with a better-than-average hand and if nothing else we might take it down with a cbet if we both miss the flop. limping and letting the blinds come in with j4, q7, k3 or a2 or whatever, that have some outs against us, can't be right. also this way we can buy the button.

cliffs notes: isoraise in position and ship the dead money in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG is a fish that plays any two cards. Button's a bot. SB is a lag that never folds during a blind steal, and BB is a loose-passive-calling station, who's bound to call when he sees at least 3 other people in the hand, and its only one bet to him. I can't see how raising can be +EV here. You're almost never ahead of their collective holdings.

I guess if you really want to play this hand you can call. Personally I'd wait for a better hand.

The thing is, whenever I see lags, or loosy-goosy calling stations sitting in the SB and BB, my first reaction is to tighten up my stealing range. Its mostly the tight ones you can take advantage of.

I don't think its reasonable for us to expect T9s to come out on top when trying to steal the blinds, take position, AND isolate a bad ep limper.

Just my 1 bb (at 1c/2c limits)...

Re: ... and here comes the next... (Playalong)
 

Frito,

Do the same calc HU w/ UTG.

Re: ... and here comes the next... (Playalong)
 

pf: call, raise, fold.

edit: oops i read that as fold and 5 calls.

im fine folding this hand.

Re: ... and here comes the next... (Playalong)
 

[ QUOTE ]
You don't have enough high card strength/showdown value here to warrant isolation.

[/ QUOTE ]

In particular,

[ QUOTE ]
UTG: Total fish. Runs by the stats of 76/4/0.5 and has a Wtsd of 70%+

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: ... and here comes the next... (Playalong)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Frito,

Do the same calc HU w/ UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I did. You're losing (a bit). That's likely offset by the dead money in the pot, but I don't think it maxes out our EV:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

6,362,921,664 games 0.005 secs 1,272,584,332,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.470% 47.93% 01.54% 3049915324 97834022.00 { T9s }
Hand 1: 50.530% 48.99% 01.54% 3117338296 97834022.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 83s+, 73s+, 63s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J4o+, T6o+, 96o+, 85o+, 75o+, 65o }


(disclaimer: forgot to exclude the premiums for UTG in my first calcs, so I left them in here as well)

So that prolly means I'm breaking even or maybe even a very slight fav. (because of the premiums I included). Still, what the calcs show, I guess, is that limping is better as (a) I have a bigger edge to begin with (clearly profitable vs. barely or only-because-of-the-blind-money profitable) (b) I will have a clearly defined hand that's very easy to play postflop (often...)

So, anyway, I called...

Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 5 folds, Hero calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4SB, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero ???

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

Top pair, backdoor flush possibility and not too many players in the pot and two of them having just about any two cards- I would raise this. I think there is enough of an equity edge to raise now rather than wait until the turn.

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

flop

raise raise raise.

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

this play-along already sucks.. but please raise this flop!

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

Well, as long as we're breaking out the stove, I put SB on a huge range, UTG on a pretty wide calling range, and saw what happens to our equity if we assume BB has us dominated. Basically, the question is, "Is it worth trying to fold SB even if we're a dog in the hand?" The answer is a resounding no, since even if he's correct to call with 2 overcards in this spot, BB inherits virtually all of the equity of him folding.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

21,121,560 games 0.282 secs 74,899,148 games/sec

Board: 3d 4h Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.689% 15.27% 01.41% 3226172 298858.00 { Th9h }
Hand 1: 45.760% 44.16% 01.60% 9326240 338974.00 { JTo }
Hand 2: 18.738% 18.21% 00.53% 3846377 111286.00 { TT-22, AJs, A9s-A2s, KJs+, Kc9c, Kd9d, Kh9h, Kc8c, Kd8d, Kh8h, Kc7c, Kd7d, Kh7h, Kc6c, Kd6d, Kh6h, Kc5c, Kd5d, Kh5h, K4s-K3s, QJs, Qc9c, Qd9d, Qh9h, Qc8c, Qd8d, Qh8h, Q7s, Q4s-Q3s, J9s+, Jc8c, Jd8d, Jh8h, Jc7c, Jd7d, Jh7h, J4s-J3s, T6s+, 98s, 9c7c, 9d7d, 9h7h, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, AJo, A9o-A3o, KJo+, K4o-K3o, QJo, Q4o-Q3o, J9o+, J4o, T7o+, 98o, 75o+, 65o, 54o, 43o }
Hand 3: 18.813% 18.60% 00.21% 3928635 45018.00 { KQo }


---

2,104,893 games 0.032 secs 65,777,906 games/sec

Board: 3d 4h Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 17.958% 14.90% 03.06% 313667 64323.50 { Th9h }
Hand 1: 61.707% 58.40% 03.31% 1229234 69636.50 { JTo }
Hand 2: 20.335% 19.91% 00.42% 419097 8935.00 { TT-22, AJs, A9s-A2s, KJs+, Kc9c, Kd9d, Kh9h, Kc8c, Kd8d, Kh8h, Kc7c, Kd7d, Kh7h, Kc6c, Kd6d, Kh6h, Kc5c, Kd5d, Kh5h, K4s-K3s, QJs, Qc9c, Qd9d, Qh9h, Qc8c, Qd8d, Qh8h, Q7s, Q4s-Q3s, J9s+, Jc8c, Jd8d, Jh8h, Jc7c, Jd7d, Jh7h, J4s-J3s, T6s+, 98s, 9c7c, 9d7d, 9h7h, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, AJo, A9o-A3o, KJo+, K4o-K3o, QJo, Q4o-Q3o, J9o+, J4o, T7o+, 98o, 75o+, 65o, 54o, 43o }


---

909,374,260 games 12.610 secs 72,115,325 games/sec

Board: 3d 4h Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.264% 13.85% 02.41% 125968344 21930262.00 { Th9h }
Hand 1: 49.796% 47.05% 02.74% 427894831 24938598.00 { JTo }
Hand 2: 18.595% 18.07% 00.52% 164334495 4759540.17 { TT-22, AJs, A9s-A2s, KJs+, Kc9c, Kd9d, Kh9h, Kc8c, Kd8d, Kh8h, Kc7c, Kd7d, Kh7h, Kc6c, Kd6d, Kh6h, Kc5c, Kd5d, Kh5h, K4s-K3s, QJs, Qc9c, Qd9d, Qh9h, Qc8c, Qd8d, Qh8h, Q7s, Q4s-Q3s, J9s+, Jc8c, Jd8d, Jh8h, Jc7c, Jd7d, Jh7h, J4s-J3s, T6s+, 98s, 9c7c, 9d7d, 9h7h, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, AJo, A9o-A3o, KJo+, K4o-K3o, QJo, Q4o-Q3o, J9o+, J4o, T7o+, 98o, 75o+, 65o, 54o, 43o }
Hand 3: 15.346% 14.89% 00.46% 135405534 4142655.83 { 88-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AJo-A2o, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }

If we want to advocate raising here, we need to put BB on a good number of hands we beat. I'm not saying that's bad, but I want to offer this as a pre-buttal to anyone who might say that we have to raise to force out SB regardless of BB's range.

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

[ QUOTE ]
BB inherits virtually all of the equity of him folding

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure I understand. Please explain this...

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

bravos, awesome and useful post

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

BB could have any ten here since he didn't have to make any VPIP contribution. He could have a smaller pocket pair, a piece of the flop less than a ten or maybe he fancies trying to steal the pot on a relatively unco-ordinated board. He could even be betting a straight draw. I would have thought that a raise was for value here. If the SB folds, that is an added bonus.

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BB inherits virtually all of the equity of him folding

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure I understand. Please explain this...

[/ QUOTE ]

If the folding player's hand has 18% equity, when we cause him to fold like .5% of that equity goes to the donator with nothing, another 1% goes to Hero, and the remaining 16.5% goes to BB who has Hero dominated JTo vs. T9s.

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

but how do we determine this bro? In other words, How did you achieve this observation? Reads, experience or a stove exercise?

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

Look at my stove calcs.

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

Ok, I see what you did. Thanks guys.

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

As a an aside, I like my made up word "pre-buttal," and I think I'll incorporate it into my vocabulary.

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

[ QUOTE ]
As a an aside, I like my made up word "pre-buttal," and I think I'll incorporate it into my vocabulary.

[/ QUOTE ]

I liked that as well. Good conversational metagame, too, as it will make your listener stop and wonder for a sec.

Re: ... and here comes the next... (Playalong)
 

[ QUOTE ]

Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 5 folds, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

any option is good ...

I tend to raise T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] more than [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ... hearts just seem so wimpy (the spade or the club ... that's the way to go!)

reason to raise ...
against this guy T9s probably has equity (and probably has marginal equity against some of the crap SB and BB will call with in their positions) ...
also, raising now will most likely get us a free card onthe flop if we want it (and same if we bet the flop) ...
of course will have to be cautiously on the flop, depending

reasons not to raise ...
we mostly likely don't ISO UTG and have to play just short of a mw pot

reasons to just call ...
BTN is not likely to come along anyways ... and even if he does (he's not raising), and SB and BB are likely to come too so we have a chance to potentially play a bigger pot post flop with all these calls stations

reasons to fold
to not get into trouble ... but how much fun is that [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

[ QUOTE ]
Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 5 folds, Hero calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4SB, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm probably raising this is the game ... especially with UTG who is calling with pretty much anything

I imagine BB has a Ten here and we are about 50/50 against the range of Tens ... I would feel a lot better about raising if this guy knew what a 'steal flop' is - or if he would be betting pocket pairs too

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

[ QUOTE ]
I imagine BB has a Ten here and we are about 50/50 against the range of Tens ...

[/ QUOTE ]

The only T we beat in his range is T8. He could also have 33, 44.

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I imagine BB has a Ten here and we are about 50/50 against the range of Tens ...

[/ QUOTE ]

The only T we beat in his range is T8. He could also have 33, 44.

[/ QUOTE ]

BB can have any ten ...

E: 33, 44, 43 ... this is why I would feel better if this guy would bet 99-77 here

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

Yes you're right, I forgot he checked in for a free play. However, I think the point still stands, in that he's not betting a worse T than ours. Come to think of it, I'm not so sure he's betting a T at all.....but if he is, its usually got us beat.

Also, we're ahead of T2, T5, T6, T7, T8, and behind T3, T4, T5, TT, TJ, TQ, TK, TA. I'm assuming he'd raise AT and TT pf, but if he didn't, he'd probably bet the flop with them.

Re: Flop: 3d, 4h, Tc
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes you're right, I forgot he checked in for a free play. However, I think the point still stands, in that he's not betting a worse T than ours. Come to think of it, I'm not so sure he's betting a T at all.....but if he is, its usually got us beat.

Also, we're ahead of T2, T5, T6, T7, T8, and behind T3, T4, T5, TT, TJ, TQ, TK, TA. I'm assuming he'd raise AT and TT pf, but if he didn't, he'd probably bet the flop with them.

[/ QUOTE ]

just because villain has a low AF doesn't mean he doesn't bet - it means he tends to call instead of raise

and I see no reason to conclude villain only bets Tens better than ours ...

note: I doubt he raises AT when given a chance to check (TT could go either way)

remember - villain sucks ...
of course he could be betting 33, 44, 43 ... but he could also be betting, any Ten (some better than ours, some worse), maybe pockets lower than 99, maybe crap like 4x too ...
the thing is ... we'll be getting called down with a lot of crap (and some hands that beat us) and only raised with 'the king [censored]'

Turn: 8d
 

[ QUOTE ]
BB could have any ten here since he didn't have to make any VPIP contribution. He could have a smaller pocket pair, a piece of the flop less than a ten or maybe he fancies trying to steal the pot on a relatively unco-ordinated board. He could even be betting a straight draw. I would have thought that a raise was for value here. If the SB folds, that is an added bonus.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree. UTG is no real concern and SB checked. So, since we also have position, might want to take a free card if our draw improves, have a reasonable chance of being ahead anyhow, I decided to raise...

Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 5 folds, Hero calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4SB, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

They all call and we build ourselves a nice pot.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6BB, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero ???

... but what now? What hands do we put villains on, what do we do, based on that?

Re: Turn: 8d
 

[ QUOTE ]
Agree. UTG is no real concern and SB checked. So, since we also have position, might want to take a free card if our draw improves, have a reasonable chance of being ahead anyhow, I decided to raise...

[/ QUOTE ]

I can think of zero turns where I would check behind if checked to.

Actual turn: lol. So SB has 88, 8+some part of the board, or maybe just an 8. I don't think we're quite good enough to raise here but there's enough dead money around to call down.

Re: Turn: 8d
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Agree. UTG is no real concern and SB checked. So, since we also have position, might want to take a free card if our draw improves, have a reasonable chance of being ahead anyhow, I decided to raise...

[/ QUOTE ]

I can think of zero turns where I would check behind if checked to.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about something like Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?

I'd assume something like this would hit someones range pretty hard...

Re: Turn: 8d
 

I think the raise on the flop is thin, but probably best. I call on the turn.

Re: Turn: 8d
 

*grunch*

At 9:1 with TPWK, it's call down for me, although this is possibly one of those hands that push my W$SD down [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Edit: I won't call down if an overcard falls and/or things heat up on the river. I'll heat up things myself if my ten falls on the river.

Re: Turn: 8d
 

[ QUOTE ]
*grunch*

At 9:1 with TPWK, it's call down for me, although this is possibly one of those hands that push my W$SD down [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you assume SB coldcalls the flop and donks the turn with?