My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

I've realised that I'm calling down too many weak hands - I'm rarely over 50 % W@SD. This is a typically tough spot. Inside straight draw with one overcard on the turn. Pot offers 5:1.

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, CO (poster) checks, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG+2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7SB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+2 bets</font>, CO calls, Hero...?

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

Getting 7:1, you need 6 outs. I guess you have those. Closing the action, I call.

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

call the turn. We have 4 outs to the nuts &amp; 1 overcard. If we hit an ace on the river it gets interesting.

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

plus closing ya

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

Hmm, thanks guys. I folded here. And the river was a J - of course.

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

6 outs? I don't count 2 for our overcard given how close together the board is. I'd have folded.

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

With only 4 outs to the nuts plus a small pot i'd fold here

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

ev neutral.

i call.

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

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ev neutral.


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How is this ev neutral?

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

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6 outs? I don't count 2 for our overcard given how close together the board is. I'd have folded.

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That's likely offset by your implieds if you river the nuts.

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

as in, we are getting roughly the exact correct odds to call the turn bet, after factoring in our potential outs, implied odds, chance of being ahead, etc etc.

basically im saying it matters very little if we call or fold this turn.

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

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as in, we are getting roughly the exact correct odds to call the turn bet, after factoring in our potential outs, implied odds, chance of being ahead, etc etc.

basically im saying it matters very little if we call or fold this turn.

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If it's that close to 0 EV, and the number of Outs is relatively low- is it not better (swing-wise)to fold?

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

variance should be completely irrelevant in a limit game.

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

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as in, we are getting roughly the exact correct odds to call the turn bet, after factoring in our potential outs, implied odds, chance of being ahead, etc etc.

basically im saying it matters very little if we call or fold this turn.

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If it's that close to 0 EV, and the number of Outs is relatively low- is it not better (swing-wise)to fold?

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Meh. In that case you should always CALL because you never know if villains cat doesn't happen to choose this exact moment to bite in his big toe, making his finger jerk, resulting in an "raise" click at that lovely J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the river... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

actually i factored in the 'villains cat misclick' already

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

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as in, we are getting roughly the exact correct odds to call the turn bet, after factoring in our potential outs, implied odds, chance of being ahead, etc etc.

basically im saying it matters very little if we call or fold this turn.

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If it's that close to 0 EV, and the number of Outs is relatively low- is it not better (swing-wise)to fold?

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If it's EV 0 then you might as well call, because calling is more enjoyable than folding. If you fold you're sure to lose the hand, but if you call you might win. If it's EV 0 then it's "free" to call so call because winning hands is more enjoyable than losing.

I'm not extending this to the fish mentality of chasing regardless of pot odds because they enjoy winning hands, just in an EV 0 situation I'd think the game is more enjoyable staying in the hand.

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

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variance should be completely irrelevant in a limit game.

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This is not true if it has a psychological effect on your future playing abilities. If it is 0 EV then perhaps it is better to fold. I think this is slightly +EV tho [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

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If it's EV 0 then you might as well call, because calling is more enjoyable than folding. If you fold you're sure to lose the hand, but if you call you might win. If it's EV 0 then it's "free" to call so call because winning hands is more enjoyable than losing.

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OK so if EVERY hand you play, you have 1 out on the turn to win the hand. So you are a 45:1 dog to win. The pot lays you 46:1- so you have an "edge". You're calling every time right?

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

Right. But check you remembered to include in your calc any extra bets you might win if your miracle happens.

If there are enough players in to make a 45 to 1 pot after the turn your probly going to get called in a few spots.

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

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Right. But check you remembered to include in your calc any extra bets you might win if your miracle happens.

If there are enough players in to make a 45 to 1 pot after the turn your probly going to get called in a few spots.

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With all respect it was a totally hyperthetical question- the pots never going to lay you 45:1. The ppoint of the question is:

What is the point of chasing a 2.2% chance of winning- just to "just about" break-even??? The long run suddenly just got a lot longer- for virtually no profit. And rememberL Only when you hit the 2.2% chance do you get the pay back for the other losses- right back to where you started!

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

I wasn't all together serious.

Just pointing out that pot odds aren't the whole picture.

Rephrase your question - would you like to win an extra 2.2%?

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

Assuming we can agree that this is EV=0, or at least very close to it, there is also value to calling (and if you get to showdown) just so someone can say "What a donkey, he called with just a gutshot draw!!!" Then maybe you get a big donkey note from that guy and maybe he value bets you thin from now on.

Plus, I wholeheartedly think that "...because it's more fun to see the hand through" is a great reason to call these spots.

On an EV scale, it could mean that having fun lets me extend my sessions 10% longer than I'd otherwise play. That 10% of lost time is likely not going to greatly interrupt the rest of my life, but I've effectively made 9.9% more money (assuming these kinds of 'mistakes' add up to 0.1% net loss overall).

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

You never have to justify the gamboool. Just understand when you are on the gamboool and when you aren't. It's not such a slippery slop to get from calling EV =0 situations just for fun and calling -EV situations just for fun. No judgements, just a warning.

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

I agree, but FWIW, I doubt I have the capacity to truly spot a 0 EV situation with a whole lot of accuracy.

My goal I suppose is for the sum total of "meh, it's close..." decisions to cancel each other out.

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've realised that I'm calling down too many weak hands - I'm rarely over 50 % W@SD. This is a typically tough spot. Inside straight draw with one overcard on the turn. Pot offers 5:1.

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, CO (poster) checks, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG+2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7SB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+2 bets</font>, CO calls, Hero...?

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Fold turn. You don't have IO to play your hand even with 4 outs. I don't think we can count more than 3.5 outs here.

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
as in, we are getting roughly the exact correct odds to call the turn bet, after factoring in our potential outs, implied odds, chance of being ahead, etc etc.

basically im saying it matters very little if we call or fold this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're giving yourself 5 outs E?

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

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6 outs? I don't count 2 for our overcard given how close together the board is. I'd have folded.

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That's likely offset by your implieds if you river the nuts.

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If we value our hand at five outs you don't even break even if your opponent always bet/calls when you hit your straight. And I think five outs is generous.

Re: My struggle against my inner calling station, part 2
 

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If it's EV 0 then you might as well call, because calling is more enjoyable than folding. If you fold you're sure to lose the hand, but if you call you might win. If it's EV 0 then it's "free" to call so call because winning hands is more enjoyable than losing.

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OK so if EVERY hand you play, you have 1 out on the turn to win the hand. So you are a 45:1 dog to win. The pot lays you 46:1- so you have an "edge". You're calling every time right?

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w.... t.... f....

of course i am. why wouldnt you?