Jazz v Warriors Game 1
 

I really like laying 4 at home with the Jazz tomorrow. I'm not sure the Warriors give the Jazz as many problems as they did the Mavericks. I also like the Jazz at -140 for the series. Thoughts?

Re: Jazz v Warriors Game 1
 

Warriors line being pounded down, tough one for sure

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The warriors are on fire now. I think they have a great shot at the series also. I've already placed a bet on the warriors at +4.

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I think a lot of the public is on the Warriors. If you watch ESPN it seems like they are the only team in the playoffs.

Re: Jazz v Warriors Game 1
 

Don't underestimate a teams confidence & psyche, they can compensate for some shortcomings.

The Warriors are the hottest team right now, and brimming with confidence.

If Sir Barron is 100%, or very, very close to it this series is up for grabs and I give the slight edge to the Warriors. If Barron is about 75% or less, Utah dominates the series in 5 or 6 games.
It's going to interesting to see how Davis looks at the start of tomorrows game. I haven't read much about his injury since the end of game 6 so I guess that's a good sign that's it's not to serious.

For tomorrow's game, I think Utah will win and cover the spread and the Warriors will be a bit rusty after 4 full days off.
I think the Warriors will take game two though.

Re: Jazz v Warriors Game 1
 

Any size advantage Davis had is negated with Fisher and Williams.

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Davis has shown he can play hurt but how that will affect him throught the course of an entire series is still yet to be seen. The coaching/strategy that the warriors showed durring their first series impressed me enough to take them in the series

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i also took the over at 13.5 in total threes in the game

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I really like the Warriors but we all know the Jazz are mentally tough and wont be abused as bad. You know the Warriors are going to get it from the moorman crowd up in Utah so it all depends on how they handle themselves. Is there anywhere I can bet whether Jackson gets thrown out in any game? CAuse he probably will! I like the Warriors tonight at +4 and I like em in the series.

Re: Jazz v Warriors Game 1
 

Line is solid at -4, I'm taking the Jazz ML (-170).

The corresponding moneyline for a -4 favourite should be -180. High scoring game + undervalued favourite + fading public = good bet

Re: Jazz v Warriors Game 1
 

someone talk to me about the total in this game. under looks solid to me. i am sure it moves up by tipoff especially at stupid books. the total is right where gs-dallas totals were, and that series was 4-2 under. i wish i had nba pacing ratings, but utah seems like a totally half court team. they will probably guard golden state much better on the three ball since they aren't skinny wimps like dallas who i think played zone at times. don't see how the warriors keep up their hot shooting in a new gym. under seems so obvious it has to be wrong.

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I agree with all of your points except for using "high scoring game" as a reason to back the Jazz - wouldn't a high scoring game be coupled with a Warriors win?

Re: Jazz v Warriors Game 1
 

Utah ML -165 SIA. U must be kidding me. Also good for the arb thread, but I don't arb.

Re: Jazz v Warriors Game 1
 

Series line for the Jazz is now down to -130 at Bodog. I definitely think there is some value there.

Re: Jazz v Warriors Game 1
 

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i also took the over at 13.5 in total threes in the game

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I hit this too, good start so far

Re: Jazz v Warriors Game 1
 

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I agree with all of your points except for using "high scoring game" as a reason to back the Jazz - wouldn't a high scoring game be coupled with a Warriors win?

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There is a reason why I think a high scoring game will benefit the better team. Think about this, if a random guy was to play against Jordan 1v1 for 1 basket, the random guy may win if he gets lucky, but if they play for 10 baskets, the effect of luck is minimized & it is more likely for Jordan to win. In a game with less offense, it is easier for a bad team to keep it close, thereby increasing their chance to win, that's the way I understand why underdogs win more often with the under and vice versa.

As for GS- they always play a fast game, but are they really the better team offensively? I use offensive rating to evaluate this, the numbers are 111.76 for Utah and 109.34 for GS, which suggests that Utah is the better team offensively.

That said, Utah is down by 3 at half time.

Re: Jazz v Warriors Game 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
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I agree with all of your points except for using "high scoring game" as a reason to back the Jazz - wouldn't a high scoring game be coupled with a Warriors win?

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There is a reason why I think a high scoring game will benefit the better team. Think about this, if a random guy was to play against Jordan 1v1 for 1 basket, the random guy may win if he gets lucky, but if they play for 10 baskets, the effect of luck is minimized & it is more likely for Jordan to win. In a game with less offense, it is easier for a bad team to keep it close, thereby increasing their chance to win, that's the way I understand why underdogs win more often with the under and vice versa.

As for GS- they always play a fast game, but are they really the better team offensively? I use offensive rating to evaluate this, the numbers are 111.76 for Utah and 109.34 for GS, which suggests that Utah is the better team offensively.

That said, Utah is down by 3 at half time.

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Nice analogy

Re: Jazz v Warriors Game 1
 

If you asked Don Nelson if his team had a better chance beating the Jazz in a high scoring game vs. a low scoring game he would take the high scoring game. If you asked Jerry Sloan, he would chose the low scoring game against the Warriors. In fact I would venture to guess that each coach's gameplan against the other team is designed to achieve these very things. The Jazz want to grind it out against a Warriors team who lives off of emotion, scoring, 3 pointers, and fast break points. So if the Warriors' gameplan goes as planned and Jerry Sloan's fails, don't the Warriors have a better chance of winning the game? These are two HOF coaches, should Nelly be trying to slow the game down because his team is the worst team of the two and he wants to keep the score down so they have a better chance of winning?

I don't think this issue is a matter of sample size, that analogy does not work here. If this were the case then why would the Jazz not try to run the Warriors out of the building? And to say that when there are more points scored the better team wins is kind of circular logic or defining a word using the word.

Re: Jazz v Warriors Game 1
 

indeed, that logic might work for a game of horse (or poker) but when you're playing a time limit game where the effectiveness of both your offense and defense is heavily dependent on the pace you play at you can't just take the 55%^n etc.

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Does anyone know if Fisher will be back by game 2? Has anyone heard what his "personal problem" is?

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something to do with one of his kids.

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He had some problems with his kids.
Salt Lake Tribune - Derek Fisher Update

I don't expect him to play, nor do I want him to if his mind is not into it (I have Utah -3).

Nothing like a $700 push on GS +4 in game 1 because GS can't make a meaningless shot in the final seconds. Oh well.