The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

Villain plays straight poker and runs by the stats of 16/8/1.5 over 200 hands.


Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises</font>, 7 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4.5SB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 re-raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5.25BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>

Any good?

I figure that Villain has announced his hand quite clearly on the flop. He's no one to open-raise A9s from UTG+1, and he prolly wouldn't 3bet AKs on a board like this. Leaves a PP.
I expect to get a fold here very often if villain doesn't happen to have AA.

Any good?

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

Very creative. I'm not sure I like it, and not sure I don't like it. I would do the math to see the break even point, but I'm drinking on a wednesday afternoon and don't feel like it. I agree with your assesment of his probable hand as an overpair, but I'm assuming you can let this go if he treys the turn (AA, dur.) I guess my final analysis would be that I don't like it in a vacuum, but don't mind it against the right opponant in the right spot.

-J

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

Way to play some poker!!!!

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

Given villan's stats and your read, fold pf. Raising the flop is spew. The turn is good if you think he's able to fold TT-KK. I'd like to see a WTSD on the guy, tho.

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

Boz, assuming he raises slightly less than his "full" 8% from EP (let's say 6%), I'm a 2:1 dog, getting 3:1 odds... ?

His wsd is 30% and I agree, flop raise is the one action in the hand I'm very unsure of...

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

this call pf is standard for me.

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Boz, assuming he raises slightly less than his "full" 8% from EP (let's say 6%), I'm a 2:1 dog, getting 3:1 odds... ?

His wsd is 30% and I agree, flop raise is the one action in the hand I'm very unsure of...

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh. Preflop isn't about equity. Making this call preflop is predicated on your being able to avoid spewing postflop, and therefore shouldn't be "standard" or "easy".

Part of my concern about the flop raise is that it mutes the power of your turn bluff considerably, unless your villan is so MUBSy that he'll put you on A9 vs. his AK-one-heart or something.

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

A straight-forward player's flop 3-bet means he has an overpair. The 16/8/1.5 stats indicate that he probably calls more often than he should (looking at the 1.5 AF). I don't like it.

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

Easy fold PF. If there were others it may be a call.

The semi bluff on turn may just about be positive EV, but only because of the heavy price you've already paid.

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Boz, assuming he raises slightly less than his "full" 8% from EP (let's say 6%), I'm a 2:1 dog, getting 3:1 odds... ?

[/ QUOTE ]

...out of position, facing reverse implied odds unless you make a straight...

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

It's a fold for me pre.

[ QUOTE ]
Villain plays straight poker

[/ QUOTE ]

What have you been playing? If you've been aggro any at at all and he's got TT+ i think your getting looked up.

Looks like a train.wreck to me.

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

IMO ... villain is too weak to pull this stuff (going by AF)

1.5 means he tends to call ...

if opponent was like a 19/15/3.1 ... then go for it.

if I'm that villain though ... I'm looking at the board - after you check raise and call a three bet I'm thinking you have
1/ pocket pair 55-88
2/ top pair ... A9, J9, T9, 98

also the turn bring a flush draw now + a scare card ... you may be doing this with a 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img](8, T, J) [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

so it's kind of looking like you'll get a BS call down ...

not a bad spot IMO ... but it's against the wrong guy

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

I like it if he folded.

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

i sense spew on the turn CR. Calling J9s is fine, hitting top pair is fine, villain 3betting my raise had me the most worried. we're oop and have heavy fire coming our way from a somewhat passive postflop player. me no likey this bluff.

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

[ QUOTE ]
i sense spew on the turn CR. Calling J9s is fine, hitting top pair is fine, villain 3betting my raise had me the most worried. we're oop and have heavy fire coming our way from a somewhat passive postflop player. me no likey this bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Put yourself in villain's shoes. (You have KK.)

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i sense spew on the turn CR. Calling J9s is fine, hitting top pair is fine, villain 3betting my raise had me the most worried. we're oop and have heavy fire coming our way from a somewhat passive postflop player. me no likey this bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Put yourself in villain's shoes. (You have KK.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I call down because I don't think hero has an ace here very often. I'm more worried about seeing a set or two pair.

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

This is a terrible place to bluff imo. Villian putting that many bets in is simply going to call down from that raise. If he were weak-tight he woulda check/folded on the turn.

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Boz, assuming he raises slightly less than his "full" 8% from EP (let's say 6%), I'm a 2:1 dog, getting 3:1 odds... ?

[/ QUOTE ]

...out of position, facing reverse implied odds unless you make a straight...

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, here's what I'm wondering... Would you call from the BB with JTs? I guess you would. How about T9s? I would assume you do.

The only difference between my hand and those is that JT and T9 make one more str8. (And curiously enough, 'stove gives me a higher equity with J9s than with T9s)

Then about RIO: Isn't that more of an issue if it were multiway and/or draw-heavy board? If I don'T flop a good draw or a good pair, I get out. Otherwise, I have a reasonable hand.

This flop is fairly dry - I have little to fear in terms of FD or SD etc. If villains range is the above mentioned 6%, with me flopping TP, I'm pretty much 50:50 vs his range.

I don't think just folding getting 5:1 can be standard?

But the question presents itself: What is the right play then? I assume c/call, c/call b/f (given turn and river don't look too scary)?

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

I'm not huge on it. I just fold if he's playing back at me this heavily on the flop.

You represented your hand as a strong made flop hand -- this means the only hands you check/raise turn with are flopped sets/2pairs, and A9. He's probably picked up enough about you that there's no way you have any type of 2pair hand as you'd fold preflop, and that you would 3bet any bigger pair preflop (as you play straightforward). There is also no semibluff draw on the flop.

You've turned your hand face up on the flop, as 9+WK, or unlikely flopped 99/22/44 which are sorta, meh. I don't think the Ace changes anything on the turn. If he's weak enough to fold there, then wow. Otherwise, I think you get called down way more often.

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Boz, assuming he raises slightly less than his "full" 8% from EP (let's say 6%), I'm a 2:1 dog, getting 3:1 odds... ?

[/ QUOTE ]

...out of position, facing reverse implied odds unless you make a straight...

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, here's what I'm wondering... Would you call from the BB with JTs? I guess you would. How about T9s? I would assume you do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against this opponent I wouldn't. I'd seriously consider folding KJo here.

(NOTE: My fullring preflop stats when I played most heavily were something like 19/13)

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Villain plays straight poker and runs by the stats of 16/8/1.5 over 200 hands.


Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises</font>, 7 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4.5SB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 re-raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5.25BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>

Any good?

I figure that Villain has announced his hand quite clearly on the flop. He's no one to open-raise A9s from UTG+1, and he prolly wouldn't 3bet AKs on a board like this. Leaves a PP.
I expect to get a fold here very often if villain doesn't happen to have AA.

Any good?

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually won't try to bluff someone I put on a big pocket pair. Most players would just call it down. I also think oop bluffs are the toughest to rep.

The problem with this bluff, is that although your opponent's hand is defined to you, your hand is not defined well enough for him. What do you think he's putting you on? What do you want him to put you on?

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

[ QUOTE ]
assuming he raises slightly less than his "full" 8% from EP (let's say 6%), I'm a 2:1 dog, getting 3:1 odds

[/ QUOTE ]

How did you figure out that you're 2:1?

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

[ QUOTE ]
The only difference between my hand and those is that JT and T9 make one more str8. (And curiously enough, 'stove gives me a higher equity with J9s than with T9s)

[/ QUOTE ]
No kidding? Amazing how the better hand has the higher equity.

I would be lying if I told you I haven't done something like this before, but I need a really good read that Villain gets weak-tight with scare cards.

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only difference between my hand and those is that JT and T9 make one more str8. (And curiously enough, 'stove gives me a higher equity with J9s than with T9s)

[/ QUOTE ]No kidding? Amazing how the better hand has the higher equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, the point I didn't get around to clarifying is that a large percentage of your equity with all these hands comes from pairs (56s has just as much straight and flush value as T9s against a tight PFR range*, so if you call one but not the other you're doing it because of pair value). The problem is that you stand to lose more against an overpair than you stand to win against whiffed overcards, especially being OOP.


*OK, barring situations when the board is something like 789TJ but seriously