10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

both opponents are solid and know i can make moves, however this doesn't seem like a situation where i would ever be bluffing (i guess?). maybe people that have played with me can chime in.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $20 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($510)
UTG ($5086)
MP ($3503)
CO ($3596)
Button ($1990)
Hero ($3732)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $60</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $240</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $230, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $180.

Flop: ($740) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks.

Turn: ($740) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $600</font>, MP folds, CO calls $600.

River: ($1940) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1640</font>

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

I like it assuming ur putting the CO on JJ or something like that

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

I'm not a huge fan. Many villains are going to check QQ on that board figuring that their opponents are drawing slim to dead. The CO is showing up with QQ or a notch or 2 down, JJ or TT a majority of the time here. He could get stubborn with the middle pairs there (definte -EV) but I just can't really see this play working often enough to be profitable.

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

preflop sucks, no?

i like your river bet

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

I like this bluff. I think the CO has a weak hand here a lot and you are convincingly representing a stronger hand..

I think CO bets AA/KK on flop. QQ is fairly unlikely, so that leaves JJ-99 which are probably going to fold to this bet.

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

I like as long as you haven't been playing over aggro this session.

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

i do this all the time with good results; i have a lot more hands at 5-10 but it works all the time there, i really can't imagine it not working here

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

Given the preflop action and that you're OOP, your hand is often a mid-high pair like 77-TT - hands that have value here and are usually easy to play OOP since you hit a set or you don't. You are very effectively repping a set here. Since that's the case and he's still calling, I'd be a little worried. That being said, your river bet should fold all other hands that beat you unless he was playing AA or KK really weirdly and refused to believe that you have a set here.

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

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preflop sucks, no?

i like your river bet

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would u call with 10's there?

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

btw i also like 500-550 more on the turn bc of dryness and set up slightly bigger river shove

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

i'd rather check and call the river

i think you get looked up too often here, especially YOU, and it will go check/check a lot the times you would get looked up, and the times he bets you will gain some nasty value

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'd rather check and call the river

i think you get looked up too often here, especially YOU, and it will go check/check a lot the times you would get looked up, and the times he bets you will gain some nasty value

[/ QUOTE ]

haha man are you serious? you're so crazy.

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

Seems fine

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

this looks good. people almost never fold the turn with 99-JJ but they fold to this river bet wayyy more than half the time.

it's real tough for him to put you on any type of hand he beats

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'd rather check and call the river

i think you get looked up too often here, especially YOU, and it will go check/check a lot the times you would get looked up, and the times he bets you will gain some nasty value

[/ QUOTE ]

this seems mildly absurd... i dont think we have any showdown value.

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

i don't know why everyone is saying 99-JJ here. I think this really looks like KQ/AQ or KK even that was scared of hero's cold call out of the blinds and thus didn't want to go too crazy on the flop (and could play it safe due to the dry board). i think that is his range a very large portion of the time... and given that and the way he played it (well, apparently), i don't think he's planning on folding this river.

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'd rather check and call the river

i think you get looked up too often here, especially YOU, and it will go check/check a lot the times you would get looked up, and the times he bets you will gain some nasty value

[/ QUOTE ]

this seems mildly absurd... i dont think we have any showdown value.

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mildly?

i love krantz's crazy ways, but i think he jumped off the deep end with this one.

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

yea if i check river plan would be to fold or raise

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

i like the bet. jay is on drugs. i'm jealous.

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

i am on drugs but whatever, everyone always assumes gabe is bluffing, esp with missed hearts that turned, so nobody folds those mid pairs

nobody bets them either, which is why when there is a river bet 33 will be good

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

i dont mind preflop

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

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I like as long as you haven't been playing over aggro this session.

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Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

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i dont mind preflop

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are you doing this most of the time with any pair or only occasionally? are you also coldcalling aa and kk more than you're 4betting? you don't have odds to play for a set so you'd better have huge bluff equity to call 33 oop here. and you can't have huge bluff equity against competent opponents if your range is full of small pairs.

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

ike did u see stack sizes

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

For some reason, I think people are less likely to call with their hand here that beats nothing but a bluff less often when you push this river instead of betting what you did. I like the hand generally tho.

-Jason

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

[ QUOTE ]
For some reason, I think people are less likely to call with their hand here that beats nothing but a bluff less often when you push this river instead of betting what you did. I like the hand generally tho.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

i was actually going to say this... i agree with the first half but not the second half. i like a push (2x pot i think it is?) on the river but i don't like the pot bet. i actually don't like the hand as played but i guess i'm the only one... i really think you get looked up by a queen or better a lot. but i think a push is a good play in this spot.

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

i actually pushed the slider all the way to the edge, then for some reason moved it back

but that kinda pschological part is interesting

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

[ QUOTE ]
i actually pushed the slider all the way to the edge, then for some reason moved it back

but that kinda pschological part is interesting

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm actually interested in the results of this one since my read on villain's hand was so different from everyone else...

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

Duck, do you think there is a difference between 88 and KQ here? IMO, the only difference is that some people feel AQ/KQ bets the flop a good % of the time, other than that, g-p is hardly ever leading TT or even KQ here imo, so if villian is a thinkin player, he's prob not going to see much of a difference in the two- except in their absolute value, where top pair looks better than second pair.

I don't believe g-p leads this river for value though even with AQ more than like 10% of the time .. and that's assuming he cc with AQ(suited maybe) in this situation.

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

agree with fslexduck here. He plans on calling this river a lot of the time. He could have 99-JJ I guess but if so I hate his play, and he still might call the river some of the time.

Something that no one has really discussed is the comment you made about this being a spot where you're rarely bluffing. I haven't played with you that I know of, but I think he thinks you can be bluffing here probably. He knows his hand looks somewhat weak because of the flop check, but I think a lot of the time he has AA KK AQ, and is trying to get to showdown, scared of a set or a higher pair. It looks like he called the turn with the intention of calling the river, and I think he can talk himself into a call here with those hands because his hand is under repped. I think a shove is a lot less likely to be called than your bet, but your bet is def better than like 1/2-3/4 pot which is getting snap called prob.

I think it's pretty close but I doubt your bet is +ev here. It's pretty good for metagame I think though, but you may not need that since it sounds like you're pretty bluffy. It sucks because if I'm betting the turn with your hand I really really want to follow through on the river but I dunno.

One final thing, what are you value betting here or what does he think you'd value bet here. It could be a big deal whether or not you vb AQ here.

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i actually pushed the slider all the way to the edge, then for some reason moved it back

but that kinda pschological part is interesting

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm actually interested in the results of this one since my read on villain's hand was so different from everyone else...

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umm me too c/c river all the way

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

he thought for a while and called with KQ

Re: 10/20 stars kinda big bulff
 

[ QUOTE ]
Duck, do you think there is a difference between 88 and KQ here? IMO, the only difference is that some people feel AQ/KQ bets the flop a good % of the time, other than that, g-p is hardly ever leading TT or even KQ here imo, so if villian is a thinkin player, he's prob not going to see much of a difference in the two- except in their absolute value, where top pair looks better than second pair.

I don't believe g-p leads this river for value though even with AQ more than like 10% of the time .. and that's assuming he cc with AQ(suited maybe) in this situation.

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i agree with you that they should be the same given g-p's river bet size but i don't think he folds as often as maybe he should (or should he?) because in his mind with KQ or better he played such a strong hand so deceptively that he has induced enough for him to call. whether or not that is true in the long run i don't know, but i think he thinks it is enough to make the call. plus top pair is prettier than 2nd pair.