100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t12000 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP (t58567)
Button (t69457)
Hero (t49896)
BB (t705604)
UTG (t195976)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to t57967</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero ?


Payouts:

1st: 22.5k
2nd: 14.3k
3rd: 9.5k
4th: 6.5k
5th: 4.9k

Pusher in the hand is THEROBBOB20. I haven't played with him a lot, but I believe he is a solid winner.

edit: If this is a fold, what can I call with?

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

pretty sure this is a fold

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
pretty sure this is a fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. You are only 55% against ATC. Make his range only slightly tighter, and also factor the BB yet to act, I think this is a fold.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.845% 53.86% 01.99% 1129654161 41726804.50 { Ac3d }
Hand 1: 44.155% 42.17% 01.99% 884464630 41726804.50 { random }

Although I'm way over my head here(not played 100r before), I would say A8+, A6s+, 66+, KQ. Too tight?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.128% 68.38% 00.75% 146298326584 1601627328.00 { 66+, A6s+, KQs, KQo }
Hand 1: 30.872% 30.12% 00.75% 64450803560 1601627328.00 { random }

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

this is really close. if he is pushing like 25% of hands it is about breakeven, but then again the huge stack bb has yet to act. he should actually be pushing a lot more than this but i don't know how he plays. if i didn't have a good read on the guy i think i would fold

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

It's definitely close. My calling range is something like 55+/A7s+/KQ, so I fold.

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pretty sure this is a fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. You are only 55% against ATC. Make his range only slightly tighter, and also factor the BB yet to act, I think this is a fold.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.845% 53.86% 01.99% 1129654161 41726804.50 { Ac3d }
Hand 1: 44.155% 42.17% 01.99% 884464630 41726804.50 { random }

Although I'm way over my head here(not played 100r before), I would say A8+, A6s+, 66+, KQ. Too tight?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.128% 68.38% 00.75% 146298326584 1601627328.00 { 66+, A6s+, KQs, KQo }
Hand 1: 30.872% 30.12% 00.75% 64450803560 1601627328.00 { random }

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if you think he is pushing any 2 cards then this is a very easy call. you are getting like 1.5:1 or so on the call. obviously you have to factor in the bb yet to act, but that is not enough to merit a fold if mp is pushing top 50% to 100% of his hands. but like i said, without a solid read i would probably fold.

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

I think this is a call, because you can launch yourself into a top-3 spot if you win, and you're probably a small favorite

that pushing range posted is insanely tight, if I ever open fold 55 or KJ or even 98s 5 handed with 5x BB in my stack, it's time to put me out to stud

I should note that this becomes a fold if you think BB will call ATC here whether or not you call

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

Shouldn't he be pushing ATC pretty much? You're ahead of that range obvi... I say call, you move up at least 1 spot where you should have an edge going to flop, and it really puts you in a good spot for top 3 at the very least.

You're so short (and so is pusher) that you have to take a stand at some point

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

The call is cEV+, as you have significant pot odds. Due to final table payouts and your having a very favorable play of pushing yourself with 5xBB, I think I would pass.

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pretty sure this is a fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. You are only 55% against ATC. Make his range only slightly tighter, and also factor the BB yet to act, I think this is a fold.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.845% 53.86% 01.99% 1129654161 41726804.50 { Ac3d }
Hand 1: 44.155% 42.17% 01.99% 884464630 41726804.50 { random }

Although I'm way over my head here(not played 100r before), I would say A8+, A6s+, 66+, KQ. Too tight?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.128% 68.38% 00.75% 146298326584 1601627328.00 { 66+, A6s+, KQs, KQo }
Hand 1: 30.872% 30.12% 00.75% 64450803560 1601627328.00 { random }

[/ QUOTE ]

in the 2nd pokerstove you replaced A3 w/ the range, when you should have replaced Random w/ it.

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as for the hand, i think it's pretty close but it's a call. obviously if this guy has been a big nit then its a fold, we dont want to get it in as a huge dog, but most people are shoving a bunch of hands here. We have very little shot at first since theres a guy with a massive chiplead, and he's on our immediate right, so we're not gonna get easy blinds.
If we move up one spot we make $1600, if we move up two, we make $4600.

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
The call is cEV+, as you have significant pot odds. Due to final table payouts and your having a very favorable play of pushing yourself with 5xBB, I think I would pass.

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betgo, I agree it's an easy fold if I had 5bb after posting. Unfortunately I don't have 5bb, I have 3.5.

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
The call is cEV+, as you have significant pot odds. Due to final table payouts and your having a very favorable play of pushing yourself with 5xBB, I think I would pass.

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True betgo, but winning this hand essentially moves him up a spot and gives him a much much better shot of moving up more. If he folds this, one of the other short stacks gains a lot of chips (yes BB could still knock him out), and you may not even have a good opportunity to steal in the next orbit (when you need to). I think this is a call, although I can see arguments for folding.

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

People ignoring BB's calling range are making a huge mistake.

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
People ignoring BB's calling range are making a huge mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's true, I completely mis-read his chip stack with so many digits. With him being soooooo big he should be calling reeeaaaaally wide here, where you're either a huge dog or at best a slight edge.

This might make it a fold. I'm not positive though because you still aren't guaranteed a chance to steal, and if you don't get one in the next orbit you have no FE.

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

I fold here because BB is getting a good price to knock people out and at 100r the BB is prob calling way too wide and we often have 3 outs when against 2 random hands.

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
I fold here because BB is getting a good price to knock people out and at 100r the BB is prob calling way too wide and we often have 3 outs when against 2 random hands.

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shaun, against two random hands, we have a [censored] Ace. for all the Aces that have us drawing to three-outs, we have all the 3's, drawing to three-outs. Obviously, not all the 3's are calling, but the point is, if you start making BB's range really wide, it doesnt [censored] us up that much, cause our equity is enough to compensate.

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

I don't have pokerstove on my here but A3o vs 2 random hands prob has really bad equity. I think you prob will endup with better equity with a lot of hands you would be surprised by and I think MP is not shoving any 2 here due to the fact that BB can and will call him really wide here.

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

[ QUOTE ]

Payouts:

1st: 22.5k
2nd: 14.3k
3rd: 9.5k
4th: 6.5k
5th: 4.9k


[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be ecstatic that he's pushing with BB left to act, and try to double up another hand.

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

28.961% 25.48% 03.48% 113052822 15420338.33 { A3o }

35.453% 33.25% 02.20% 147491193 9779268.83 { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }

35.586% 33.04% 02.54% 146583892 11278788.83 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q6s+, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A2o+, K4o+, Q7o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

Yeh, has anyone here heard of pot odds? I calculate you are calling 44K to win 71K, assuming BB folds. So you are getting 1.73-1 putting in 38% of the money. If BB calls, it may not be that big a disaster. When you consider you are about 50% versus the raiser's range, this is probably cEV+ enough to be a call.

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

ok so did the icm calcs

at the start of the hand
MP: $8454.6
Button: $8988.1
Grafyx: $7993.5
BB: $191914.7
UTG: $13069.1

since it's the only one that matters, i'm just going to list grafyx's value for the follow different situations.

We fold, MP steals: $7551.8 (~ <font color="red"> $440 </font> )
We fold, MP doubles: $7268.8 (~ <font color="red"> $730 </font> )
We fold, MP busts: $8865.2 (~ <font color="green"> $900 </font> )
We call and win vs just MP: $11009.4 (~ <font color="green"> $3100 </font> )
We call and win vs both, BB wins sidepot: $11894.2 (~ <font color="green"> $4000 </font> )
We call and win vs both, MP wins sidepot: $12137.6 (~ <font color="green"> $4200 </font> )
We call and lose: $4900 (~ <font color="red"> $3000 </font> )

ok i got this far, and i feel like taking a break. i'll come back and weight the different outcomes some in a bit, but i'll post it now incase someone else feels like playing with it.

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

According to the ICM calculation done by SnG Analyzer, this is probably a fold. $EV call &gt;= $EV fold for any shoving range looser than 22+,A2+,K8+,Q7s+,Q8o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s, and is a clear fold for any range tighter than 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs.

Edit: I screwed up the blinds the first time around.

Edit: This also assumes that BB always folds, which is definitely a bad assumption given the stack sizes. As a rough estimate, I'd be calling with: 44+,A9o+,A8s+

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

calllcallcalllcallcalllcallcalllcallcalllcall

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
According to the ICM calculation done by SnG Analyzer, this is probably a fold. $EV call &gt;= $EV fold for any shoving range looser than 22+,A2+,K8+,Q7s+,Q8o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s, and is a clear fold for any range tighter than 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs.

Edit: I screwed up the blinds the first time around.

Edit: This also assumes that BB always folds, which is definitely a bad assumption given the stack sizes. As a rough estimate, I'd be calling with: 44+,A9o+,A8s+



[/ QUOTE ]

How do you enter the final table payout into SNGPT? Through the structure file?

Re: 100r: Short stacked final table hand
 

[censored] all of these numbers. I'm calling.