Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

Villain is mostly unknown, but has taggish stats (mostly datamined). He's been fairly aggressive post flop, and I've seen him raise donk bets in the past. This is the first time I have ever donked into him, or anyone at this table for that matter. From his stats, he appears to be a decent winner.

I am most likely unknown to him.

I doubled up by playing AA hard on a low flop, and stacking UTGs QQ. I have been fairly quiet, otherwise.

He has been picking up a fair amount of small pots without showdown.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $600
UTG+1: $547.50
CO: $954
Button: $594
SB: $410.65
Hero: $1145.50

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $21</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($45, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $35</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $111</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $255</font>

I plan on giving up on the turn, unless I improve my draw such that I have to shove.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

you aren't really folding any made hands,

for legitimate hands J7s (2), 33(3) and 77(3) which I think given stack sizes you would just c/r bet bet with.

Given that you have been pretty tight I think he is less likely to try and raise this flop against you as a bluff especially as it's the first time you have done it. I think villain will almost always call here and leave you in a terrible spot on the turn without an 8 rolling out or perhaps the Q or K of clubs.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

Maybe I should incorporate donking into my play but I usually c/r my gutter in situations like this. You think donking is better?

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

[ QUOTE ]
leave you in a terrible spot on the turn

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I'm pretty sure it's impossible for me to ever be in a terrible spot, in this hand.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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leave you in a terrible spot on the turn

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I'm pretty sure it's impossible for me to ever be in a terrible spot, in this hand.

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how so?

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

Also, in case I wasn't clear, I've only been at the table for like 3 orbits. Haven't done anything noteworthy, yet, aside from the AA hand, which was more or less standard.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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leave you in a terrible spot on the turn

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I'm pretty sure it's impossible for me to ever be in a terrible spot, in this hand.

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how so?

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What terrible spot are you envisioning?

If I get called, I just check/fold, if I hit a blank.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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leave you in a terrible spot on the turn

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I'm pretty sure it's impossible for me to ever be in a terrible spot, in this hand.

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how so?

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What terrible spot are you envisioning?

If I get called, I just check/fold, if I hit a blank.

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given your depth I think that a turn bet is strong against some people if they just call the turn, especially since the bet/3-bet alone looks pretty weak.

Also when a club comes you have a pretty strong hand. To be honest I think checking the turn is best because we will often get a free card.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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leave you in a terrible spot on the turn

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I'm pretty sure it's impossible for me to ever be in a terrible spot, in this hand.

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how so?

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pretty sure ten high is no good here

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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especially since the bet/3-bet alone looks pretty weak.

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lol, ok

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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especially since the bet/3-bet alone looks pretty weak.

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lol, ok

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you think most people take this line with a set? Do you take this line with a set?

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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leave you in a terrible spot on the turn

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I'm pretty sure it's impossible for me to ever be in a terrible spot, in this hand.

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how so?

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pretty sure ten high is no good here

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it's not often good preflop either, may aswell just fold there too then under this assumption?

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

wtf does that have to do with terrible turn spots?

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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given your depth I think that a turn bet is strong against some people if they just call the [flop]

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I think checking the turn is best because we will often get a free card.

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I'd rather take the pot, than a free card.

While I may get a free card, I hate having to c/c the all in here, and a river bluff looks a bit iffy.

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you think most people take this line with a set?

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Sometimes... I mean..this is Super System 101.

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Do you take this line with a set?

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Sometimes, but not with the metagame in place in this hand.

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it's not often good preflop either, may aswell just fold there too then under this assumption?

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lol wtf

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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Maybe I should incorporate donking into my play but I usually c/r my gutter in situations like this. You think donking is better?

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I mix it up between the two.

Both can be good plays, IMO.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

Looks good to me, the thread of the rest of your stack will seem him fold a lot. I think he folds QJ type stuff which is the idea.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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given your depth I think that a turn bet is strong against some people if they just call the [flop]

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I think checking the turn is best because we will often get a free card.

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I'd rather take the pot, than a free card.

While I may get a free card, I hate having to c/c the all in here, and a river bluff looks a bit iffy.

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you think most people take this line with a set?

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Sometimes... I mean..this is Super System 101.

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Do you take this line with a set?

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Sometimes, but not with the metagame in place in this hand.

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it's not often good preflop either, may aswell just fold there too then under this assumption?

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lol wtf

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he said "we aren't in a terrible spot on the turn because we have T high and it's probable not good". It still leaves you completely in the dark about his range, and how often he folds each.

For instance, he may not raise AJ on the flop, he may raise/call AJ. On the turn he may have a set, he may have AJ he may have TT, and we don't often know his frequencies for calling any of these or folding them.......... which leaves us in a tough spot when deciding whether or not to bet again (as a bluff because T high is obviously no good)

Sometimes we hit a second draw and his range may just be sets, in which case we are getting it in bad by bet/calling 700 into 550 pot.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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Looks good to me, the thread of the rest of your stack will seem him fold a lot. I think he folds QJ type stuff which is the idea.

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I don't think many players raise QJ here but I agree with stack sizes being threatening when taking strong lines. In my opinion bet/3-betting a dry board is not that threatening unless you are really incompetent.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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which leaves us in a tough spot when deciding whether or not to bet again

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But I already made my decision, when I made my 3bet.

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Sometimes we hit a second draw and his range may just be sets, in which case we are getting it in bad by bet/calling 700 into 550 pot.

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Gamble gamble.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

what exactly is your definition of a terrible spot?

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

Pretty interesting and imaginative line, IMO. I think it is fine, given that:

1) His previous raises versus donk-bets appeared to be of the type that are trying to get weak hands to fold.
2) You think he knows nothing about you, and you could well be a donk.

Given this, which appears to be this case, he is raising your flop donk with a wide range of hands, possibly any 2 cards. I think you have a ton of FE and your 3-bet should be profitable.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

It feels like every time I do this, I get shoved on. The weak reraise seems to induce shoves from all kind of hands and therefore works very well with sets. To many players who haven't seen much of your play it will look like a decent hand testing the water, but not willing to put much of your stack on the line.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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what exactly is your definition of a terrible spot?

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a spot where a decision could be very profitable or very bad but lack of information harbous a tough choice.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

and since we have no hand at all, how do we have a tough choice?

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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It feels like every time I do this, I get shoved on. The weak reraise seems to induce shoves from all kind of hands and therefore works very well with sets. To many players who haven't seen much of your play it will look like a decent hand testing the water, but not willing to put much of your stack on the line.

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yeh, unless I have seen villain take this line with a set before I often wouldn't give them very much credit here and come over the top as a bluff or call with a wide range as I stated earlier.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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what exactly is your definition of a terrible spot?

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a spot where a decision could be very profitable or very bad but lack of information harbous a tough choice.

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When we have a decision like this, what do you think of using game theory to randomize?

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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and since we have no hand at all, how do we have a tough choice?

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bluffing in poker, is where you make a bet with what you perceive to be the worst hand in order to induce a fold from your opponent who you suspect is holding a better hand.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

pushing when you pick up more outs seems like the perfect way to randomize if you feel it's a close decision

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

good god, I'm just gonna put you on ignore

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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what exactly is your definition of a terrible spot?

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a spot where a decision could be very profitable or very bad but lack of information harbous a tough choice.

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When we have a decision like this, what do you think of using game theory to randomize?

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well, I guess you can do this, but I am not sure what his range is, he may be the type to raise/call with JQ, but may also be the type to only raise and call with a set.

I guess we can start to put a range together. JT+. QQ+. 33 77 JJ. Maybe some more hands like TT etc.

Then we have to give probabilities to raise/calling each and folding on the turn or calling on the turn. If you think he is a person who has a huge raising range on this flop then in my opinion he probably calls them all which gives you a tough decision on the turn.

Lets say he folds all of them but sets and AA/KK then betting is profitable by a large margin I believe.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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good god, I'm just gonna put you on ignore

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alright, thanks, but remember we only have ten high....

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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he is raising your flop donk with a wide range of hands, possibly any 2 cards.

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That's what I thought, too.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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he is raising your flop donk with a wide range of hands, possibly any 2 cards.

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That's what I thought, too.

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If you think that, then this is fine. My qualm with it is that he is going to be less likely to raise a person who has only shown down AA and is playing tights flop donk.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

That range is way too tight. Guys like these raise total [censored] here all the time, their impulsive and sometimes stupid. But they know when they're beat.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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a tough decision

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I don't understand why you keep coming back to this.

I'm going to bet when clubs hit, and c/f when they don't. I already made my decision.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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That range is way too tight. Guys like these raise total [censored] here all the time, their impulsive and sometimes stupid. But they know when they're beat.

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You think their raise/calling range is wider than that? His raising range might be, but I don't think his raise/calling range is.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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a tough decision

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I don't understand why you keep coming back to this.

I'm going to bet when clubs hit, and c/f when they don't. I already made my decision.

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Thinking about your opponents range is more important....

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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a tough decision

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I don't understand why you keep coming back to this.

I'm going to bet when clubs hit, and c/f when they don't. I already made my decision.

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Thinking about your opponents range is more important....

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But I don't know my opponent...

I CAN'T make a BIG mistake on a club turn (unless it pairs the board, I guess). At worst, I can make a marginal mistake.

Surely you think I'm up against an opponent who can fold to a big turn bet on an apparent blank 25% of the time?

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

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a tough decision

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I don't understand why you keep coming back to this.

I'm going to bet when clubs hit, and c/f when they don't. I already made my decision.

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Thinking about your opponents range is more important....

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But I don't know my opponent...

I CAN'T make a BIG mistake on a club turn (unless it pairs the board, I guess). At worst, I can make a marginal mistake.

Surely you think I'm up against an opponent who can fold to a big turn bet on an apparent blank 25% of the time?

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Well, I think most of the time he will call the flop light given your line but fold to a turn bet a lot.

Re: Semi-Bluff on a Dry Board: $3/$6
 

If my straight draw gets better, I suppose I could make a mistake with that, but I'll probably move with that, as well, giving me 8 non-pairing clubs + 6 open ender/double gutter outs + 4 nut straights to work with.

Perhaps it might be better to try for a freebie, with some of the straight draws?

*Note: The 25% number was thinking only clubs.

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Well, I think most of the time he will call the flop light given your line but fold to a turn bet a lot.

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What do you suggest? Larger flop re-raise? Move on more turns? Fold PF?