\'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

Everyone's hot topic at the moment..As referenced by the Wicks string interest on the sitgo boards. Not to dismiss the sincere interest in that board, but I want to discuss poker careers where we're looking to net 250K+ per year...not micro grinding.

I was on the fence of making the plunge. Now I can't sleep until I committ to it and will regret it if I dont. If the complexity of my situation wasnt just that, I'd have made the move in a nano-second already. Without getting into uneccessary detail, I'd be leaving a successful job that has a fair amount of security but not 100% security if that makes any sense. I have a family, a rocky marriage (a wife that is not supportive of the career change..mind you that I am the breadwinner and have 18 month old) For the better part of the last 6 months, Ive balanced the career with about 20+ hours of week playing online, 20+hrs a week of reading, discussing poker. I've had about 10 live poker trips within that span(dozens more spanning the last few years), including some wsopcircuit events and the wpt events in my area. In short, I've gone from being slightly profitable to being a consistent winner (pace based on hourly profit is 33% more than salary)and with a higher level of passion for the game than I ever thought possible (and not just because the ROI has improved thru hard work) My breakthrough can be traced back to when a good friend of mine was a circuit event a few months ago for 90k. Being part of that convinced me 100% that this is what I want to do, full stop!

Enough about that..Questions for those kind enough to start a dialogue with me on this..
-Thoughts on the percentage of 2+2'ers that are professional poker players?
-Thoughts on the percentage of players that 'go-pro' and successfully maintain the neccessary ROI given their own goals?
-Anyone with personal commentary on how the poker experience changed when it went from supplemental income to main source of income..

FWIW my game consists of an equal mix of cash, sitgos, MTT all--both live and online..mostly NLHE but I will play the other games with a slight profit..I do not play limit.

My bankroll situation is that I have about 1 1/2 years of comfortable living expenses saved up..however my poker bankroll is mixed in with that..so i could argue that I am funded for 9 months of living expenses and a separate 9 month bankroll given the stakes I play...

serious discussion only please...terrible decision to go pro or reasonable given the circumstances?

i will be playing the wsop events in vegas and there is not an urgency to make the decision one way or another other than the fact that I am consumed with making an immediate decision..

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

You didn't really give much info about the limits you play.

Also, in my opinion, the relevant equation is:

job + poker > poker only

Let's say you make 100k/year playing poker 20 hours/week and you make 100k/year working 40 hours/week. Of this, you manage to save 80k/year directly into your bankroll. What I predict will happen is the following:

When you go poker only, you'll play 50 hours/week. You'll make $150,000/year*. But you'll have to pay your own health insurance, won't have a 401k, may have to file taxes as a professional poker player. So, you'll end up saving about $20k/year to your poker bankroll after all this. Based on this, it's usually better for your life and your poker if you keep your job.

* Why only $150,000/year when you're tripling the amount of poker you're playing? Lots of reasons. First, you currently plying mostly on the weekends. The games are easier on the weekends. You won't be able to maintain your winrates during the week. Also, it's rare that you can maintain your A game for 50 hours. It just gets too draining. And on and on.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

Limits..I play anything from the $10rebuys on Stars to $1500 MTT live tourneys..Have had success across a wide range..Have also negative variance runs at both ranges..
Sitgos $25-$500.
NL Cash games. I typically play NL $2/$5 $500 buy-in, and a wide range of buyins online NL.25/.50 up to NL$5/10.

Insurance/401k variables all factored into my 33% number. I've run the numbers probably 10 times.

The triple playing time vs expected ROI is the conversation I have..I get that the weekend play is more profitable, but arent I losing some equity when I play after a hard week when I'm probably not well rested..And when I play at night after working during the day, am I playing my most optimal game..Am I making bad end game decisions knowing I have to get up in 4 hours for work..Am I missing a great game because I have work etc etc..

I've found that my game has improved as Ive played more hours..Could be a coincidence because Im more versed aka better player than when I was playing 15hrs. Just wonder to your point if there is a point of a diminishing returns..50hrs good 55th hour-optimal play falls off..
Anyone else with real life experiences regarding this?

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

My main concern would pertain to your family. You said you have an 18 month year old correct? And you said your wife is not very fond of this idea. Let me put it to you the way I believe. Family has gotta be at the top of your considerations. An 18 month kid is going to require a lot of time, not to mention the fact that you dont want to miss out on alot of his/her life. I dont know what your schedule consists of now, but I would imagine you would go from working during the day at your job to working at night? As of right now that may not be a problem, but what about when your kid starts school? He/she will be gone all day and you may be gone all night.

This is all speculation because I dont know about your family and the situation, but remember this is a long term commitment. Just because things work with your family now, doesnt neccessarily mean it will work in 4 years.

Also, your wife. I would say once (if) you convince yourself that this is a good decision, you will then have to convince her before you think of making a move. Your part of a team, and you dont wanna risk losing your contract with that team by making a selfish decision. Sorry for the lame comparison, but my point is, family first. Plan, discuss, plan, discuss, and repeat about 10000000 times. It to me would have to be one of the most important aspects of the decision.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

Thanks PJ. Providing for family is priority. In terms of wife, we are separating for a variety of issues sooner than later..while poker is certainly a piece of the puzzle, its not the main issue. with regard to my amazing son, as it is now, i see him for 2 hours every night, thats it. with poker and a flexible schedule, i would be on the road more, but I would have more quality days where I could spend all day with him..this certainly comes into play as a positive IMO.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

I think you should stick with your job and playing poker at the same time a little while longer. Playing for only 6 months really isn't very long as you could be on the good side of variance. Right now you have the security of your job so you can take more risks playing poker but if your deriving all your income from poker stress will become more of an issue especially if/when you go on a downswing.

Yes there is a diminishing return. Right now your playing poker for "the fun of it". So the few hours you play is more of a relaxing time as a opposed to work. But if your grinding it out 5-6 days a week for 8-12 hours, it's a lot different. Obviously the more you play the better your probably going to be which would account for you improvement.

Also if your turning pro, you can't mix your savings with your bankroll. Your bankroll is your bankroll. Same as if you had your own business. What you invest into your business stays there for operational purposes. You pay yourself a salary essentially. The money outside should be in case your business goes under. So you should have at least 6 months of savings. Better if it's a year.

Also you must respect the decisions of your family. Family comes first. Try keeping your job a tad longer...say another half year. That way you'll have at least a full year's worth of playing time to convince her. Your the sole income earner so you have to understand her point of view. After that, try taking a leave of absence(sp?) or vacation for a couple of months (or more if you can) and try it out full time to see how well you do (ie your how much you make at the table can actually replace your income) and if you do really like it. Since you didn't say whether this will be online or live, spending one day at the casino is a lot different than spending 5-6 days there and/or spending months on the road at tournaments. You'd also have to consider all the pitfalls that staying in a casino will entail.

Hope this helps.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

Dude, if you are heading towards a divorce, it would be a very, very bad idea for you to start a gambling career. If you go on a downswing during this period, her lawyer will come after you for dissipation of the marital estate because the court will not hear the words "poker pro" but rather "degenerate gambler". Whatever loses you post will come out of your half of the property.

Your problems in this area are further compounded because if you wait until after your possible divorce to change careers, in some states "voluntary" changes in circumstances aren't looked upon favorably by the courts. The court doesn't want some guy making decent coin quiting his job to work at McDonalds to spite the ex-wife and reduce his child support payments.

So you are in a difficult position.

You need to realize that the stress that your rocky marriage relationship is causing you is probably clouding your judgment. Make sure that your numbers are right. Make sure that you want to put this nail in the coffin of your relationship.

Think really hard about this decision. If you want to go forward, speak with a divorce attorney regarding the possible consequences of your actions. If you live in a conservative area, the judiciary may not look favorably on your decision.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

I'm all for anybody following their dreams. One hundred percent. However, after you have kids, that has to be your number one. I'm not saying it is not yours btw. Stable job would be the much more responsible thing to do. I agree with central, keep a steady job while working on your poker game. There should not be a huge rush. Maybe build up your br a little more and get things more stable, for your family's sake. Sorry to hear about the marital issues and I wish you the very best of luck in whatever you chose to do. Anyway you could just cut hours at work? pt or something?

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

The first thing you need to do is completely separate your poker bankroll from the money you live on. Manage them independently. With an 18-month-old depending on you, this is the single most important decision you could possibly make.

If I were you, I'd find a new job where I could work part-time, and spend the next six months concentrating on moving up online. You'll make more money playing poker, and be able to spend time around your family too. Good luck!

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

You should definitely read these two articles from the last 2 issues of the 2+2 Internet magazine:

Winners Make Good Trade-offs, Parts 1 & 2

http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/i...maker0307.html
http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/c...maker0407.html

Going through the execercise in the first part may help you identify your motivation, the trade offs you're willing to make to acheive your goals and thus help you make the best decision.

One question about your being profitable - do you have some large tourney money figured in you being a winning player over the last year, or is it cash game profits you're talking about? I'm curious about that after reading the articles as the differences between cash and tourneys are mentioned there.

You might also want to have a look at "The Flop" article in the Spring 2007 Poker Life magazine about John D'Agostino and what he has to say about tournaments vs cash games.

What affect would the ceasation of being able to play online (or at least the ability to access money you have online) have on your income? Despite what anyone wants to admit, that is a possibility - soon.

I don't have kids but I did go through a divorce and it was difficult. I cannot imagine having a child, going through a divorce AND changing to a career with less security all at once but thats just me, YMMV.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

Other than what others have pointed out, BR, etc...

[ QUOTE ]
serious discussion only please...terrible decision to go pro or reasonable given the circumstances?


[/ QUOTE ]

If you don't see that your personal circumstances suck for going pro, you may have bigger problems later on. No mention of your monthly nut that you'd need. Including child support and possible ex-spousal care should that be a possibility in the future.

[ QUOTE ]
there is not an urgency to make the decision one way or another other than the fact that I am consumed with making an immediate decision..

[/ QUOTE ]

Given all that's happening, this is not the time to be consumed with making an immediate decision. Going pro isn't an 'immediate' decision. Unless you're a desperate gambler. You have other, more immediate concerns that should be taking precedent.

[ QUOTE ]
My breakthrough can be traced back to when a good friend of mine was a circuit event a few months ago for 90k. Being part of that convinced me 100% that this is what I want to do, full stop!

[/ QUOTE ]

Looked real easy, didn't it?

It's not.

In fact you may really hate it when that first real bad swing hits and lasts for a few months.

If you've only been playing 6 months, you have a bit to learn before you go pro.

b

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks PJ. Providing for family is priority. In terms of wife, we are separating for a variety of issues sooner than later..while poker is certainly a piece of the puzzle, its not the main issue. with regard to my amazing son, as it is now, i see him for 2 hours every night, thats it. with poker and a flexible schedule, i would be on the road more, but I would have more quality days where I could spend all day with him..this certainly comes into play as a positive IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]Grain of salt, as I have no kids, but while son around during the day is undoubtedly and massively +LifeEV, it's probably -PokerEV.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

Also, Poker going from "profitable hobby" to "sole source of income" might affect your game psyche for the worse. The summer after school before I started working I definitely felt this way - less fun = more tilt = long losing/breakeven stretches. This was so much so that I quit playing, cold-turkey, for 18 months - burnout sucks.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

thanks for the responses guys..a few of you missed my intended point of starting the dialogue and distorted a few facts..i have not played for just 6 months..i've thought about poker as a career for 6 months and as such, have taken it 1000x more seriously than ever b4. i've played seriously for 5years, and played my whole life. i'm 33.

not looking for a judgement call given my family scenario--..moreso, commentaries on the questions i posted in the first post of the string...

cash flow and family security are vital but not at risk here.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

[ QUOTE ]
The first thing you need to do is completely separate your poker bankroll from the money you live on. Manage them independently.



[/ QUOTE ]

And if you're not worried about the financial security or the situation you're in, then why post?

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

[ QUOTE ]
not looking for a judgement call given my family scenario--..moreso, commentaries on the questions i posted in the first post of the string...cash flow and family security are vital but not at risk here.



[/ QUOTE ]

Then why bring them up in the OP?

Those factors are still(or should be) relevant to thinking of going pro as it could very easily affect your psyche of the game.

b

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

If you don't do it you will be unhappy.

DO IT.

If you fail, get a job.

Easy decision confused by marriage. It's not fashionable or even socially acceptable to say it, but for a man, work is and always should be more important than family. Your work defines you.

Flame on ... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

matt, bernie- thanks. brought up basics of the situation just so folks understand why its not a cut/dry decision. if i was single etc etc, it would be a no-brainer move. wanted to clarify that Im not a college kid and do in fact have a 9-5 job, actually 6am-7pm when you build in commute etc.. obviously i wouldnt make the move if I thought it would put anyone in my family in jeopardy. I'm in an industry where I could most likely get a job within 2 months of actively searching..and in addition to the poker I'm also working on a few other sources of income..a book, small consulting gigs etc so the financial side of things has been evaluated quite a bit..i am completely aware of what can happen..i have friends that have gone pro..I've seen both sides of what can happen..for the good and bad.

Just wanted answers to these questions to expand my sample size of commentaries..
-Thoughts on the percentage of 2+2'ers that are professional poker players?
-Thoughts on the percentage of players that 'go-pro' and successfully maintain the neccessary ROI given their own goals?
-Anyone with personal commentary on how the poker experience changed when it went from supplemental income to main source of income..

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

OP,

Based on how much you've played and that you seem to have a reasonable job, I think that if you were single etc. etc. then it would not be a cut/dry decision. Given that you are a new father facing a failing relationship and likely divorce in the near future makes NOT going pro a no-brainer.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

Tough spot. Obviously you want to take the plunge. Obviously you have stuff holding you back.

I moved to Vegas four months ago. Made a few deals with my wife. I get to play poker all day. It has become a job. Just like everything else.

I think most people play better poker with the security of a job behind them. It makes the results not matter so much. When I have a week of salary on the table and someone pushes all in sometimes I have to fold what might be the best hand. Because I have to win. I can't lose. I can't afford to gamble. This isn't like poker was when I did it part time.

Not to piss on your parade here but the way you go pro is when you have too much money coming in from poker for this debate to even occur. You'll know it. For now I'd be proud of not being a pro.

Also keep taking those shots at the bigger events. They are sweet to cash in. Although the irony I've found is once you go pro you won't be as excited to spend your hard earned money on them.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

[ QUOTE ]
-Thoughts on the percentage of 2+2'ers that are professional poker players?


[/ QUOTE ]

Many more say they are but probably really aren't. At least not in the independent sort of way.

[ QUOTE ]
-Thoughts on the percentage of players that 'go-pro' and successfully maintain the neccessary ROI given their own goals?


[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on their monthly nut. You want that minimized as much as possible.

[ QUOTE ]
-Anyone with personal commentary on how the poker experience changed when it went from supplemental income to main source of income..

[/ QUOTE ]

Not as fun as semi-pro. It becomes like another job. Except you get to deal with more petty/miserable/degenerate/whiny people on a regular basis.
Which can wear on you. It sure has me.

b

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

Sounds like you've almost made up your mind and just looking for some numbers to confirm your decisions. Hate to say it, but the numbers really don't matter. I can say that 5% are highly successful and another 15% are moderately to break even. Does that really mean anything, a little but not a whole lot. The numbers you should be looking at are how much per hour am I making, how much per week or per month. How many hands I've seen, how long have I been a winning player. I'm not talking about just after 6 months when you hit a big score. I'm talking about what you've done in the past 2-3 (or more) years or more. Winning for short time means you could just be on the good side of variance as well.

I've known some decent players who have had big scores only to find themselves down on there luck. End up playing other casino games games (blackjack, baccarat, etc) just to pay for living expenses. Your a bit ahead of the game since you've got some money saved and the ability to find another job plus side things going. As I said before, try taking time off from work (vacation, leave of absence or whatever) and try it out.

Also you NEED to take into consideration your personal life. If your in a poor mood, your just going to be giving away your money at the table since you aren't concentrating fully on your game.

Hope this helps.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

thanks homedog- you say you play all day. do you set aside a few days a week to do a night shift..realizing that the tourists are on vaca and play day and night..as opposed to atlantic city where there is more of a night clientele of locals that just got off work..i still find on my vegas trips that the night cash games are jucier than day...

'having to win' should never be a situation that occurs..i would like to think that I would never put myself in such a spot...i could see myself taking a shot in a MTT that might be slightly outside ideal given my bankroll but im not going to put myself in a position where losing is going to hurt me to the point that Im not playing the right way..

In terms of too much money coming in..it's hard to quantify that. I dont think there is such thing as too much coming in...I like to think I am smart when it comes to investing so excess is just put to proper use. I dont see myself jumping to a 'big game' where I could lose months of hard work just because I have the extra dough..I have realistic goals and intend to stick with them..If anything, a big win would just make it easier to take a few extra days on that vacation or a nice gift for someone..

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

I basically play weekends and weeknights. I tried a few all nighters when I first moved out to Vegas. The poker table really crosses over to the Twilight Zone once you get past 4 am. Sometimes it was a goldmine. But other times you're sitting there at 8 in morning watching someone suck out on you and as you walk into the daylight you can help but wonder what the hell you're doing with your life.

I don't do the all nighters anymore unless a game is too good to leave. All nighters were usually profitable but just made the next day too painful and because of family I didn't want to be on a vampire schedule.

I mainly go down to the Strip anytime after 7pm during the week and play as long as the game seems good. On weekends anytime is usually good. It's nice to be able to go home whenever I want. Not to feel I have to get my gambling in.

When I wrote about "having to win" what I was saying is that it changed the way I played. I have much less gamble in me. Yes I still bluff. But I'm much less likely to call big bets with nothing invested in the pot.

In other words I'm laying down pocket kings to big bets on under card boards. I'm laying down baby flushes to all in's. Hands I'd never fold when I wasn't playing professionally. If I knew for certain I was ahead then of course I'd call. But now I see those folds as the cost of doing business. Reducing variance. I make enough money from the big hands I get in when I know I'm ahead.

This was a big change to my game. I used to win and lose a lot more money in each session when I wasn't doing this for a living. Now I'm much more consistent. Because it's a job. That's what I meant by "having to win." It's not that I can't afford to lose my buy in. It's that it's not worth the risk. It's how I stay in business.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

I hear ya. Sounds like you are where you need to be with your game. And it's that discipline that separates the limited percent that can win long term. gamblers or tourists are taking every flush to showdown and most draws to the river..and overpairs to the board always re-raising. hey, we all lose in these situations sometimes but to the gambler, they can never get off these hands, ever.

hey at the end of the day, its a unique profession that many outsiders look down on. I've done the desk job for 10 years and KNOW that its not what I want to do forever..and some would say I'm crazy, as I work in the fantasy sports industry. but sometimes you just know..and after obsessing over all the negatives the last six months, i still lean towards being comfortable making the move..

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

A few important considerations:

-How will you handle a major downswing?
-How much do you REALLY know about the game?
-Are you capable of REALLY judging a table, and how your abilities compare to your opponents?
-Do you have enough self awareness to know when to leave a game?

If you want to go pro, realize that big money is an exception, not a rule, even for great players. Most succesful pros are actually happy to pay the monthly nut, and perhaps have a few bucks left over for fun.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

[ QUOTE ]
A few important considerations:

-How will you handle a major downswing?
-How much do you REALLY know about the game?
-Are you capable of REALLY judging a table, and how your abilities compare to your opponents?
-Do you have enough self awareness to know when to leave a game?

If you want to go pro, realize that big money is an exception, not a rule, even for great players. Most succesful pros are actually happy to pay the monthly nut, and perhaps have a few bucks left over for fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Yawk. I can confidently answer the above questions the right way. I handle bad beats and variance well now. In live games, my reads, and my perceived image are definitely strong suits..Online, I'm still tweaking multi-tabling analysis. I feel I lose a little edge when I go to 6 tables, but 5 I handle well. I feel with 6, my reads are off a bit...Leaving the game at the right time is just something that you should know..

Big money is all relative. I truly enjoy the lifestyle, so if I'm doing marginally better on the income, its worth it for me.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

Congrats for wanting to go pro. I've though about it too at times but for the time being I want to play more hands, learn the game more, make mistakes, build a bankroll and learn more about myself.

Once I have played 100k-1M hands, am confident with my play, show a nice win, learn from my mistakes, build a appropraite roll for the limit I am playing and understand how playing for a living will affect my emotional, psychological and financial state when I run bad, I may think about playing for a living.

This is one of QTip's great posts:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...&PHPSESSID=

In case it does not show the title is "To the New, Aspiring Player" post #3812872. The post is in the Limit HE Micro Stakes but is still relevant to all limits and all forms of poker.

In your case, my advice would be to keep playing, practicing, studying and weigh the advantages and disadvantages of making the move with the fact that you should keep family as a #1!

GL,

Google

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

Skimmed the GTip string..that was from quite a long time ago but still relevant. I agree that family is #1 but just to clarify, we are splitting for a variety of reasons, so the traditional family will not exist here. I love my son more than anything and he will always have everything he needs including more time with me. Having a flexible schedule will allow me to work around his schedule rather than the other way around.

The game is ever changing. Each table you play at brings new variables so you always need to be learning and in the moment. No 2 hands are exactly alike. I would argue that the brain power put to use far exceeds most desk jobs. You are always 'working' if you take this seriously as a profession. One of the issues I am looking to explore is for how long can you 'work'. Since you are at such a high level, whats the proper mix of days off before you refuel. Multi day tourneys dont allow such a break but nobody is going to be play MTT's 365 days a yr.

Running bad genuinely does not bother me. It certainly used to but now I view it as something that is not controllable. Everyday is just part of one long continuous game so as long as you are making EV+ moves, it'll all work out.

I will say that as part of my record keeping, I keep track of bad beats (80/20 w/1card to go, poor plays and suck outs (20/80 w/1card to go. My sessions are generally consistent in terms of this data..Results are obviously carrying a high degree of variance.

I'm pretty close to making the move..If the bankroll is in even better shape after the WSOP, I'm going to do this. There is no inherent rush so I'm just going to continue to add a few hrs each week..until its practically full time anyway.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

Very true. I have not had Variance effect me that much, but it does suck.

Over the last three weeks, I have had so many bad sessions that it is laughable. I figured I had a few beers and messed up. When I looked at the logs the next day, I played it near perfect.

A lot of these new "pros" became pros because they were doing very well. You made an intelligent observation about how someone earning all of their money from Poker would handle such a down swing.

For the original poster, if he has a record like that 2+2er of amassing 1.6 Million dollars in 18 months, I would say go for it.

If you have only won a few grand, do what these guys are saying and seriously take a mental inventory.

Lion out.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

it sucks to play for 10 hours a day. your back really starts hurting, and your neck. you don't really meet people who can form friendships with either at work.

it's not as great as you may imagine, and the money isn't that great as well. probably no better than another job.

an excellent player could make a good $20 to $40 an hour in the middle limits, but if you work in any kind of job and devote the same work into it as it takes to become a poker expert, you'll probably end up making at least $30/hr eventually, plus benefits.

it's playing poker... for a living. not for fun, but for groceries, for rent, for everything.

it would be cool to be like doyle brunson and cash in million dollar days and such, that would be a rush. but the average professional is just a cardplayer.

good luck.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

Hi all,
very interesting conversation.
One point that has not been discussed so far:
Being 33 years old You really making a strategic decision to become a pro. So, how do You see the future of poker business, especially Your competition?
I live in Germany and played Chess (on a rather high level) for 10 years and play poker for two years.
I see two trends in Poker:
Short-term: Large flow of inexperienced new player that feed the game (on all levels) and will eventually loose interest.
Mid-term: New generation of (young) poker players (mainly with scientific background) from all over the world especially (eastern) Europe, Asia attracted by fast money.
Compare it with chess: As a professional chess player You probably have to be in the top 100 in the world to make Your living (and not a rich one). It was my favorite hobby I had a couple of 100 books written on chess and spend several hours training a day when I went to school. On a good day I was able to beat someone in the top 1000 in the world.
In these days You still see some poker players who may have read two or three books, think they are good players and play for money.
In chess no one would play against professionals they constantly loose against.
Have You read “The Mathematics of Poker”?
One simple example: SB vers. BB confrontations in NLHE tournaments, especially endgames.
You will not win a penny against me, if I act according to the “Jam or Fold strategy” presented there. So this part of the game is dead. I learned the matrix. How many players do know the numbers (M + jamming range) now, how many will know them in the future?
I am sure there will be literature/research devoted to single topics like:
“How to play AKoff on the flop for dummies”.
“How to play flush draws on the flop”.
“Randomizing Your preflop play with suited connectors.”
and so on with mixed strategies based on computational results for all shape of flops. Reading and learning them will reduce the game between experts to the factor of luck with a negative win rate being equal to the rake. Such literature/research exists in Chess already for 50 years…
So I expect that in 5 to 10 Years Your win rate will decrease dramatically.
My personal approach: I am still satisfied with my couple of hundred dollars I make each month by playing NLHE tourneys (with micro entries like 5-20$) after work.
At some point I will online-qualify for a main poker event. (It was already very close several times). But I would not quit my 100k+€ job for an uncertain future.
This might look too pessimistic to You but I think some people do not see that there is a poker hype and money always attracts good people.

Re: \'Going Pro\'- a serious conversation
 

I think your family is overly relevant to this topic. I also think youve continously replied in this thread to covinence yourself that you should go pro. If you should (and you should) why not wait? Work on your wife situation a little bit and if its bound for divorce, wait til the dust clears. Wait until you figure out child support and alimony expenses and youve already had custody hearings...

Being profitable isnt the only big decsion here, plus you seem to be mixing personal funds with bankroll and running it less like a business than it should be if u run pro...

I strongly vote for a period of waiting, maybe a year plus, and in the meantime, run high consistent limits and log a balance sheet for your game...