3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

Hey,

Villain is ex noose (noose on 2+2 I believe). He is a good TAG. He knows I respect his play (I sit out when we're HU). I remember a hand long time ago at 1020 where he stacked me with like a pair of 6s on a board with 3-4 overcards and 3 to a straight/flush.

Im assuming he views me as a semi-LAG and decent [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] and I believe that I 3bet him more than most in these games allthough this fullring thing kinda puts a stopper to that (even though wasnt filled up when this hand came)...


Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 5: ex_Noose ( $ 12,500.47 USD ) <---
Seat 7: Dylan_McKay_ ( $ 9,235 USD ) <---
Seat 10: UAreAPunk ( $ 10,262.50 USD )
Seat 1: gusost ( $ 5,950 USD )
Seat 9: b2bullets ( $ 4,925 USD )
Seat 4: mahmouda ( $ 1,295 USD )

UAreAPunk posts small blind [$ 25 USD].
gusost posts big blind [$ 50 USD].

Dealt to Dylan_McKay_ 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

mahmouda folds.
ex_Noose raises to $175 USD
Dylan_McKay_ raises to $600 USD
b2bullets folds.
UAreAPunk folds.
gusost folds.
ex_Noose calls $425 USD

Flop 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
ex_Noose checks.
Dylan_McKay_ bets $850 USD
ex_Noose calls $ 850 USD

Turn 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
ex_Noose checks.
Dylan_McKay_ bets $2,450 USD
ex_Noose calls $2,450 USD

River A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
ex_Noose checks.
Dylan_McKay_ is all-In.

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

i like this if you haven't showed him you are capable of it. (like if he hasn't gone into trap mode on you because you were too aggressive earlier)

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

I think I like it as long as you paused for 10 seconds.

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

I think he likes to do the trap-thing like flatcalling Aces and stuff, but we're too deep for him to have that here (and with that river, that's highly unlikely).

So he COULD be trapping on the flop and turn, but not many hands like that river card.

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

I honestly can't remember. I almost never act instantly, but I wasnt close at timing out either... Im guessing I took 7 secs [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

And maybe I should've checked behind on the turn, but I had a gut feeling that I might be able to get him off on the turn a lot of the times plus I assumed I had a relatively high folding equity on a lot of river cards.

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

Is he raising Ax clubs 100% on one of flop/turn or because you are deepish would he sometimes just call?

I am assuming you would push any Ax on the river also so I do like it but he just makes the sickest plays sometimes. I remember someone on here saying before that you should just do the opposite of whatever you think you should go when faced with a decision like this againt Noose.

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

Dunno if these hands might help:

Dealt to Dylan_McKay_ [ 2d 2s ]
ex_Noose raises [$ 175 USD]
Dylan_McKay_ calls [$ 175 USD]
BTBTBTBTBTBT folds.
gusost folds.

Dealing Flop [ 7d, Qs, 2c ]
ex_Noose bets [$ 250 USD]
Dylan_McKay_ raises [$ 750 USD]
ex_Noose calls [$ 500 USD]

Turn [ 6h ]
ex_Noose checks.
Dylan_McKay_ checks.

River [ Qc ]
ex_Noose checks.
Dylan_McKay_ bets [$ 1,700 USD]
ex_Noose raises [$ 4,850 USD]
Dylan_McKay_ raises [$ 6,300 USD]
ex_Noose is all-In.

ex_Noose shows [ 7c, 7s ]a full house, Sevens full of Queens.


Dealt to Dylan_McKay_ [ Ah 9s ]
MaybeHot folds.
DorAemon25 folds.
Oban23 folds.
Dylan_McKay_ raises [$ 170 USD]
Friisen78 folds.
ex_Noose raises [$ 450 USD]
Dylan_McKay_ calls [$ 330 USD]

Flop [ 2c, 4d, 3d ]
ex_Noose bets [$ 750 USD]
Dylan_McKay_ is all-In.
ex_Noose calls [$ 3,820 USD]

** Dealing Turn ** [ Jd ]
** Dealing River ** [ 4c ]
ex_Noose shows [ Kh, Kc ]two pairs, Kings and Fours.


Dealt to Dylan_McKay_ [ Qh As ]
zequiche folds.
queenkris folds.
ex_Noose raises [$ 175 USD]
M4ximillion folds.
Smartguy177 calls [$ 175 USD]
Dylan_McKay_ raises [$ 775 USD]
benzidebuc folds.
ex_Noose calls [$ 625 USD]
Smartguy177 is all-In.
Dylan_McKay_ calls [$ 167.50 USD]
ex_Noose calls [$ 167.50 USD]

Flop [ Th, Ac, Qs ]
Dylan_McKay_ bets [$ 1,000 USD]
ex_Noose is all-In.
Dylan_McKay_ calls [$ 3,032.50 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Tc ]
** Dealing River ** [ 4d ]
ex_Noose shows [ Ah, Ad ]a full house, Aces full of Tens.


Dealt to Dylan_McKay_ [ 8h 8c ]
CARAMALE calls [$50]
DRAGONF1SH calls [$50]
MaybeHot folds.
tauran11 calls [$50]
Dulcinea_ folds.
sirena23 folds.
Dylan_McKay_ raises [$350]
esto_gana_no folds.
LE4T_ folds.
ex_Noose calls [$300]
CARAMALE folds.
DRAGONF1SH folds.
tauran11 folds.

Flop ** [ 8s, 8d, 7h ]
ex_Noose checks.
Dylan_McKay_ bets [$550]
ex_Noose raises [$1250]
Dylan_McKay_ calls [$700]

Turn ** [ 4s ]
ex_Noose bets [$2750]
Dylan_McKay_ is all-In.
ex_Noose calls [$650]

** Dealing River ** [ 2d ]
ex_Noose shows [ 6c, 6s ]two pairs, Eights and Sixes.

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is he raising Ax clubs 100% on one of flop/turn or because you are deepish would he sometimes just call?
(...)
I am assuming you would push any Ax on the river also

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt he is raising it 100% of the time on the flop (he'll prob cr some turns ai to let me hang myslef in a 2nd barrel since im never folding a high pp on the flop), but A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] has a ton of equity vs my range and he knows that (probably more than 50%) so he should be raising it at least a decent amount.

I think I will push all As on the river, yeah.

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

HMMMM I CANT PUT U ON A AHND BIT ACES OR SEVENSZ SO I PROB WILL CALL U DOWN AND ME AND EX NSOSOSOE PLA T THE SAME

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

Dealt to Dylan_McKay_ [ Qh As ]
zequiche folds.
queenkris folds.
ex_Noose raises [$ 175 USD]
M4ximillion folds.
Smartguy177 calls [$ 175 USD]
Dylan_McKay_ raises [$ 775 USD]
benzidebuc folds.
ex_Noose calls [$ 625 USD]
Smartguy177 is all-In.
Dylan_McKay_ calls [$ 167.50 USD]
ex_Noose calls [$ 167.50 USD]

Flop [ Th, Ac, Qs ]
Dylan_McKay_ bets [$ 1,000 USD]
ex_Noose is all-In.
Dylan_McKay_ calls [$ 3,032.50 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Tc ]
** Dealing River ** [ 4d ]
ex_Noose shows [ Ah, Ad ]a full house, Aces full of Tens.

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

I don't like the river push. He probably can guess your hand and will call ahead and fold behind.

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the river push. He probably can guess your hand and will call ahead and fold behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold behind? I am pretty sure he is trying to fold hands ahead of him so I hope that is a given.

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

[ QUOTE ]
HMMMM I CANT PUT U ON A AHND BIT ACES OR SEVENSZ SO I PROB WILL CALL U DOWN AND ME AND EX NSOSOSOE PLA T THE SAME

[/ QUOTE ]

Turn off caps lock, are you shouting or something? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I really doubt that he has an A the vast majority of the time, so I might value push Kings and Queens, maybe even Jacks (and Tens) allthough that's pretty thin.

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dealt to Dylan_McKay_ [ Qh As ]
zequiche folds.
queenkris folds.
ex_Noose raises [$ 175 USD]
M4ximillion folds.
Smartguy177 calls [$ 175 USD]
Dylan_McKay_ raises [$ 775 USD]
benzidebuc folds.
ex_Noose calls [$ 625 USD]
Smartguy177 is all-In.
Dylan_McKay_ calls [$ 167.50 USD]
ex_Noose calls [$ 167.50 USD]

Flop [ Th, Ac, Qs ]
Dylan_McKay_ bets [$ 1,000 USD]
ex_Noose is all-In.
Dylan_McKay_ calls [$ 3,032.50 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Tc ]
** Dealing River ** [ 4d ]
ex_Noose shows [ Ah, Ad ]a full house, Aces full of Tens.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you implying?

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the river push. He probably can guess your hand and will call ahead and fold behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really doubt he is ever behind here. That would have to be some sort of sc with clubs and no 7... Which he highly doubtfully calls turn with.

What's he putting me on, since he'll call? A hand that tried to rep strength early on and then *should* be scared of the Ace which it isn't and therefore doesnt come out as any hand at all...? (that seems to me, to be the only way theres some sort of logic in your response).

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the river push. He probably can guess your hand and will call ahead and fold behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold behind? I am pretty sure he is trying to fold hands ahead of him so I hope that is a given.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought that was obvious [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

I haven't played with noose in a long time but from what I hear he's pretty good. If he thinks you're over aggro I can definitely see a good player calling you here with like TT. I guess it all comes down to how he views you and that's hard to guess on a forum

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

Sometimes this can work, like when you have a good table image.

However when I try these moves when I'm losing or have no image I seem to get looked up all the time.

I think the mind set of your opponent and your image dictates if its going to be a profitable play at the time.

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

i think you get called here often since you said you 3 bet him preflop a lot. postflop most semi-good players ranges dont change much on this board. bet turn to sometimes fold lower overpairs or to fire again on the river, then ace hits the river and they are firing again, so had your 3 bet range preflop been tight you're more likely to get away with this.

it also helps if he views you as super sick who'll value bet shove KK here.

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

[ QUOTE ]

it also helps if he views you as super sick who'll value bet shove KK here.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does the river change the strenght between Hero and Villain's hands, if we assume the chance of Villain having A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]c[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is really low?

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

i dont like it, and i think hes never laying down TT+ here. the ace is just a very good card to bluff and he knows that you know that. Especially with all that history, maybe you should try to have it a little more often in big pots [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

it also helps if he views you as super sick who'll value bet shove KK here.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does the river change the strenght between Hero and Villain's hands, if we assume the chance of Villain having A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]c[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is really low?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I should have written:

How does the river change the strenght between teh range Hero is representing and Villain's range, if we assume the chance of Villain having A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]c[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is really low?

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

[ QUOTE ]
i dont like it, and i think hes never laying down TT+ here. the ace is just a very good card to bluff and he knows that you know that. Especially with all that history, maybe you should try to have it a little more often in big pots [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe, that would be the key - to just have it everytime..!

The Ace is a "good" card to bluff, but what will Villain put Hero on? Consider that it is a rr pot, which bends Hero's range towards good hands.

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

Dylan: do you value-push KK/QQ here? Just curious..

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

[ QUOTE ]

Hehe, that would be the key - to just have it everytime..!

The Ace is a "good" card to bluff, but what will Villain put Hero on? Consider that it is a rr pot, which bends Hero's range towards good hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

if your image is very agressive, you are getting called very light, especially if the pot is big already.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?863401
this is a very similar hand and it helps to actually have the hand the other guy thinks you are representing if you know what i mean [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

I think it's a very good push on the river. Regardless of what I did after Hardgrove's shove.

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dylan: do you value-push KK/QQ here? Just curious..

[/ QUOTE ]

I think so, yes. KK/QQ will prob be ahead of Villain a ton on the river but I dont know if he'll pay off though (which should make the bluff work [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]). On the other hand, there's also some value in not showing the hand etc.. (even though he knows now; but he didn't in the heat of the session).

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

I feel like betting KK/QQ for value contradicts your justification for bluffing this river. If you think he might call with JJ-99 when you push KK/QQ what makes you think he folds those hands when you have 44? If you're pushing KK/QQ on the river and also making this bluff with 44, I think both of those plays are bluffs. Either that, or you DON'T make this bluff, and you push KK/QQ for value. You can't do both.. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

It's all about frequencies... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

I honestly don't get your logic here Lefort, on the other hand I don't get Hardgroves either. In my mind valuebeting KK/QQ AND bluffing 44 makes way more sense than anything else if you really want to bluff here. If he however BLUFFS with KK/QQ on river then bluffing 44 here seems really, really bad (as does bluffing with KK/QQ altogether though as a concept)

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

[ QUOTE ]
I honestly don't get your logic here Lefort, on the other hand I don't get Hardgroves either. In my mind valuebeting KK/QQ AND bluffing 44 makes way more sense than anything else if you really want to bluff here. If he however BLUFFS with KK/QQ on river then bluffing 44 here seems really, really bad (as does bluffing with KK/QQ altogether though as a concept)

[/ QUOTE ]

Who said anything about bluffing with KK/QQ? If I bet them, it's a value bet.

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

[ QUOTE ]
I feel like betting KK/QQ for value contradicts your justification for bluffing this river.

[/ QUOTE ]

The bluff only has to work 37.5% of the time to be +EV.

Even if you assume Noose has better than KK/QQ 25% of the time (high imo), then the bluff needs to fold > 50% of the hands between 44 and QQ that he could be holding.

If he folds, say 55%-60% of the hands between 44-QQ, the bluff is good, but he's still calling 40-45% of the time he holds those hands, which when compared with the (probably high estimate) 25% hands that call and beat KK, makes this a good value bet with KK. (Technically this assumes he never calls the turn with worse than 44, but this would only really matter if the ratio (Hands between 44-QQ:hands > KK) were dramatically affected, and it wouldn't be; clearly that ratio is something like 3-4:1.)

Isn't this a fairly standard concept for HSNL?

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

I simply didn't think this was a situation where frequencies were of great importance. My perception of the situation was that villain's hand is fairly face-up as a mid-high PP and it was a matter of whether he folds to that river bet almost all of the time, or almost never of the time, without much in between. So with that logic its either a good bluff with 44 because he's folding mostly, or he's calling mostly and thus bluffing 44 is bad but value betting KK/QQ is good.

Clearly, I'm wrong. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

Clearly you're right that if he folds 80% or calls 80% than it's either a good bluff with 44 or a good vbet with QQ and not both.

Just pointing out mathematically that there's a middle range of opponent call frequency where it's both. And although I don't know what the call frequency is, it seems reasonable that it may be in that middle range. In fact, I think OP being capable of vbetting the upper range of pocket pairs makes it more likely that Noose's calling frequency is in the middle range that makes both a bluff and a vbet profitable. That is, if Noose is "naturally" inclined to call a lot, the fact that OP can value bet KK-TT will force him to call less, and if he calls too little, then vice versa. And the key to the situation is that the pre-river action has put OP in a position where much of his range (QQ+, bluffs) is able to make a profitable bet because Noose is stuck with a transparent range in a big pot. If OP takes proper advantage of the situation, Noose basically is in a no win position, overall.

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

Nice posts

Re: 3barrel bluff vs ex noose, Party2550
 

Yup very well said. I think you're probably right that it's in the middle range in this situation because your justifications are quite valid, but I also think that people quite often assume too many river decisions are in that middle range when really they are quite more polarized..

Re: Turn?
 

Why are noone commenting one the turn?

I personally think, it's a quite poor bet, unless hero hits a miracle A/K to bluff or a 4 to fill up. Especially given the fact that ExNoose doesn't, as far as I know, do much in check-calling flop i rr pots for then to c/f a random turn.

- AB

Re: Turn?
 

Wouldn't that mean to give up the pot? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Turn?
 

Can't win'em all, can you?! ;-)