|
Can I fold here?
Villain knows i've been playing relatively tight. Villain is Steve Z.
Full Tilt Poker Pot Limit Omaha Ring game Blinds: $25/$50 8 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: $4499 UTG+1: $3309 MP1: $9930.40 MP2: $3802 CO: $1716.50 Hero: $6210 SB: $850 BB: $2469 Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB checks. Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($350, 7 players) SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $350</font>, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1400</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls. Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($3150, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">UTG is all-in $3049</font>, Hero ??? |
Re: Can I fold here?
Tough spot! You can't expect that villain is betting the flop with 67xx with spades, since you hold the nut spade. If villain has 67, he also has A2 or A3. Otherwise, he can't call from UTG. Aw67 has you in bad shape. I am hard-pressed to think of another hand that he plays this way, but I don't like folding based on fear of a specific 4-card hand.
It seems equally likely that villain is misreading you for NFD and a worse low draw. But villain still needs a reason to bet the flop. Q-hi FD doesn't make any sense, because villain wouldn't like the turn card. Would villain bet with NLD and two-pair or set? It is unlikely, but possible that villain flopped top 2-pair plus backdoor NLD. However, this is also putting him on a specific 4-card hand. I call, based on the fact that UTG shouldn't have 67 and could be misreading your hand. Effen |
Re: Can I fold here?
I would fold since you have no spade or low draw.
|
Re: Can I fold here?
I would not fold there if you held a gun to my head.
|
Re: Can I fold here?
think about how many river cards will give you a scoop.
|
Re: Can I fold here?
Well given that you are holding the Ace of spades, you dont have to call off a big bet on the river, and that it's very unlikey for him to have the made straight, all = call IMO.
|
Re: Can I fold here?
I don't know anything about the villain, but if he's a PLO player then I think you will see bottom set occasionally if you have an agro image, or a wrap if he thinks there is a high probability that you have a set and wanted to wait for a safe turn. If he had flush+wrap (which you are pretty far ahead of here) I'd imagine he'd have shoved the flop. So I would imagine that you are probably better than 50-50 here against his range, and the more likely he is to have a wrap, smaller set, or flush draw, the closer you will be to 60% against his range. The only wrap that hit was JT76 or 765x, both of which are complete trash.
|
Re: Can I fold here?
Are you aware that the hand says PLO but this is the O8 section?
Or does the converter just do it like that? |
Re: Can I fold here?
O8.
|
Re: Can I fold here?
Why aren't you raising your button here?
Well, whatever. The problem with this hand is that you've been playing tight, and on the flop your hand is pretty much face up if you ask me. Combine that w/ your image this is a call. Also, wtf kind of hand can he have that leads this flop, but also contains 6-7? We know he limped UTG, he can't have the nut flush draw, he donked into the field, called a huge re-raise, your playing tight and he knows it, he probably thinks you have a set, and I can't figure out what kind of hand he has here that can limp UTG, donk the field, and still contain 67. Maybe A-2-6s-7s. Maybe. I still don't think he's calling a PSR on the flop w/ that hand given these stacks. In short, call. |
Re: Can I fold here?
Call and scoop, he prolly has middle set. Maybe spades or a low draw to go with it now, but that's irrelevant.
|
Re: Can I fold here?
Maybe spades or a low draw to go with it now, but that's irrelevant.
How is that irrelevant? If he has lower set plus spades and a low draw our equity in the hand is what, like 60%? If we figured that he has the nut str8 here half the time and low draw plus spade flush draw here the other half, it would be -EV to call... whereas if we just give him the lower set half the time then calling makes sense. Anyway, I think I fold. Problem being that much of the time your opponent will have some sort of low draw, so that half of the time you catch him semibluffing he gets away with half the pot anyway. And I think he often will have the straight here, despite the seeming improbability of 67xx hands based on the action so far. |
Re: Can I fold here?
If I didn't have the Ace of spades, I insta-call. Anyone argue with this logic?
|
Re: Can I fold here?
It's a pretty bad flop call on his part with a hand which beats you here. If he's aggressive, easy call. He thinks you missed, and the turn card is safe enough to push with a smaller set.
|
Re: Can I fold here?
[ QUOTE ]
If I didn't have the Ace of spades, I insta-call. Anyone argue with this logic? [/ QUOTE ] I see the logic (meaning could be semi-bluffing a big draw which includes the nut flush draw), but he's gonna make this play the range {big draw, smaller set}. This is standard with a smaller set. And if he's good, I don't think pot odds + implied odds - reverse implied odds are sufficient on the flop for a hand which is beating you right now. Plus what kind of hands does this guy play UTG? I can't imagine something like a267 with a low spade draw is looking that great to call a flop raise OOP. Is he the kind to limp some hand with 88,99 under the gun? Maybe he's got A{2,3}88. Another alternative is something like JTQK with spades. |
Re: Can I fold here?
The more and more I think about it, the fact that you have the As, it's more likely he has a smaller set and he puts you on a draw.
|
Re: Can I fold here?
results?
|
Re: Can I fold here?
No, you can't fold it. You've got some cards to dodge, but you've got redraws to beat anything he could possibly catch.
|
Re: Can I fold here?
The hand history show "Omaha". It doesn't say it's hi/lo.
[ QUOTE ] Full Tilt Poker Pot Limit Omaha Ring game Blinds: $25/$50 8 players [/ QUOTE ] |
Re: Can I fold here?
[ QUOTE ]
If I didn't have the Ace of spades, I insta-call. Anyone argue with this logic? [/ QUOTE ] Because you hold the ace of spades, it makes me think it's even less likely he lead the flop and called a raise with a 76xx type hand. |
Re: Can I fold here?
[ QUOTE ]
The hand history show "Omaha". It doesn't say it's hi/lo. [ QUOTE ] Full Tilt Poker Pot Limit Omaha Ring game Blinds: $25/$50 8 players [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] yeah it's just how the convertor is, can we please stop with this now. |
Re: Can I fold here?
call
i mean lets look @ this hand. So he knows that you are tight and you didnt raise PF and he limped UTG. So he made a psb into this hand w/ only 1 low card. So lets look @ what his hand possibilities are here. You have the As so you can bet that if he does have a FD he has a SD to go with it. Do you know his hand range for limping PF in PLO8? I doubt that if he is a good player that he is limping 99xx or 88xx. Unless they have an A2 tied with them. So then we have you raising (which I do not like btw. If you are not going to raise this PF then raising the flop states what ur hand is and there are too many cards that come on the turn that he can just shove with). So the 5 comes on the turn, so this means that if he doesnt have a lower set it is unlikely that he called with something like JT76ss from UTG. So when he shoves it looks like he either has a the same flush and straight draw he had before or he had one of those unlikely A288 or A299 hands where he picked up a backdoor nut low draw where he thinks he can be good with a 3467 on the river. Therefore, I think that you need to make this call b/c there are too many times that you are ahead. I think the only logical hand that you would be "really" worried about is A288 with 28ss |
Re: Can I fold here?
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe spades or a low draw to go with it now, but that's irrelevant. How is that irrelevant? If he has lower set plus spades and a low draw our equity in the hand is what, like 60%? If we figured that he has the nut str8 here half the time and low draw plus spade flush draw here the other half, it would be -EV to call... whereas if we just give him the lower set half the time then calling makes sense. Anyway, I think I fold. Problem being that much of the time your opponent will have some sort of low draw, so that half of the time you catch him semibluffing he gets away with half the pot anyway. And I think he often will have the straight here, despite the seeming improbability of 67xx hands based on the action so far. [/ QUOTE ] It's irrelevant because even if he did have spades and a low draw we'd have odds to call (getting 2:1). Vs middle set with low draw only: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2584365 pokenum -o8 as kc kd 5h - ad 2s 9d 9c -- 9h 8s ks 5c Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 40 enumerated boards containing Ks 8s 5c 9h cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV As Kc Kd 5h 23 39 1 0 0 0 0 0.775 2s 9c Ad 9d 1 1 39 0 16 0 0 0.225 vs middle set with low and flush draw: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2584367 pokenum -o8 as kc kd 5h - ad 2s 9s 9c -- 9h 8s ks 5c Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 40 enumerated boards containing Ks 8s 5c 9h cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV As Kc Kd 5h 20 32 8 0 0 0 0 0.650 9s 2s 9c Ad 8 8 32 0 16 0 0 0.350 Oh gee, look at that, we are HUGE favorites. And we are getting 2:1. We will need an IRA to protect all those Sklansky bucks from getting taxed by the govmint. Here is our absolute worst fear - A267: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2584369 pokenum -o8 as kc kd 5h - ad 2s 6s 7c -- 9h 8s ks 5c Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 40 enumerated boards containing Ks 8s 5c 9h cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV As Kc Kd 5h 9 9 31 0 0 0 0 0.225 6s 2s 7c Ad 31 31 9 0 19 0 0 0.775 We are only 10% away from having the odds to call this one. Do you realize how rarely we need to be up against one of the first 2 hands to make this an insta-call? [ QUOTE ] Problem being that much of the time your opponent will have some sort of low draw, so that half of the time you catch him semibluffing he gets away with half the pot anyway. [/ QUOTE ] There is zero logic behind this statement. Play Limit if you are going to play this weak. |
Re: Can I fold here?
[ QUOTE ]
Quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If I didn't have the Ace of spades, I insta-call. Anyone argue with this logic? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Because you hold the ace of spades, it makes me think it's even less likely he lead the flop and called a raise with a 76xx type hand. [/ QUOTE ] Please tell me why. I don't understand. You can take villain off the nut flush draw, but that makes his bet even more puzzling to me. By your logic, in order to call OP has to put villian on something like 2 pair or middle set (putting OP way ahead regardless of whether villain is also drawing to an A2), villain has to have put OP on 1 or 2 draws (and not the str8), and villain is re-potting to try to make OP lay down his draws. Or, he's a complete donk maniac on a bluff and he thinks he can get OP (tight image) to lay down anything less than the absolutes. And only a complete action monkey would play 4 middle cards in O8. JT76 or any other 76xx middle connectors can be ruled out. (Right?) Could he have AA76ds? I liked the logic behind not laying down out of fear of one hand only, the A276. I've been reading Mathematics of Poker & digesting the concept of putting your opponent on a distribution of hands instead of one specifically. This is a perfect example, I think, of being able to call the likely distribution of villain's hands. I don't play on this level, so I'm asking in a naive effort to improve myself. This feels like a call to me but its a great question with several high-end answers. Thanks for validating my time in the forum. |
Re: Can I fold here?
Aren't AA67 or AATJ with spades both the kind of hands that could lead this flop UTG? They also seem like limping hands. The AA67 in particular seems like a limping hand on which villain was waiting for someone in LP to pot so that he could repot.
Those make it an easy call IMO. But hey, I'm poor, so what do I know? |
Re: Can I fold here?
There is zero logic behind this statement. Play Limit if you are going to play this weak.
Of course it's possible I'm wrong/weak here. But zero logic, no. Since you're basically calculating the sum of all possible ((chance of opponent holding hand X) * (your equity against this hand)) and seeing whether this is more or less than the threshold you need to call, it does make a difference how far ahead you are when your opponent is behind. And if your opponent has any low draw (or flush draw) it reduces your pot equity in situations when you're ahead. As for the 'absolute worst fear' hand (A267 suited in spades), you glossed over the fact that any 67xx hand has the same or better equity against us - the nut low draw and spade flush draw are irrelevant when opponent is already ahead of us, since any card that helps us will not help his low or flush anyway. Actually 6788/6799 is our worst fear, but I'll grant that it's vanishingly unlikely. My reasoning is that if opponent had a lower set, he would probably have 3-bet the flop. Opponent is unlikely to be betting a flush draw alone this hard, since he can't have the nut flush draw - but it's quite possible that he is suited in spades anyway. AA67, A367, and A267 all seem possible to me. Personally I figure something like 85% opponent has 67xx and 15% he has some holding that you're a 70% favorite (on average) against. (0.85 * 0.225 + 0.15 * 0.7) ~ 0.296, which makes this a fold in my book (and notice that if opponent really had no redraws 15% of the time, it would make a difference). But you do have a point: you only need to bump up the chance of him holding something other than the nut straight to 25% or so in order for this to be a call. I just think lower sets are both likely to 3-bet on the flop, and less likely in general than 67xx. And other holdings don't make a lot of sense based on how the hand played out. |
Re: Can I fold here?
[ QUOTE ]
Personally I figure something like 85% opponent has 67xx [/ QUOTE ] This is the 'weak' part I was talking about. Based on what we've seen so far you can't seriously put him on 67xx that often. Can he have it here? Sure, he could have anything. Problem is, you are not putting him on a valid range of hands. The weak part was mainly referring to your brush off regarding how he could be semibluffing and still suck out a low. Let him do that all day long, if he has a 50% shot to win 50% of the pot. |
Re: Can I fold here?
If you're not willing to go broke here with this hand, then you are playing too high.
|
Re: Can I fold here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If I didn't have the Ace of spades, I insta-call. Anyone argue with this logic? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Because you hold the ace of spades, it makes me think it's even less likely he lead the flop and called a raise with a 76xx type hand. [/ QUOTE ] Please tell me why. I don't understand. You can take villain off the nut flush draw, but that makes his bet even more puzzling to me. By your logic, in order to call OP has to put villian on something like 2 pair or middle set (putting OP way ahead regardless of whether villain is also drawing to an A2), villain has to have put OP on 1 or 2 draws (and not the str8), and villain is re-potting to try to make OP lay down his draws. Or, he's a complete donk maniac on a bluff and he thinks he can get OP (tight image) to lay down anything less than the absolutes. And only a complete action monkey would play 4 middle cards in O8. JT76 or any other 76xx middle connectors can be ruled out. (Right?) Could he have AA76ds? I liked the logic behind not laying down out of fear of one hand only, the A276. I've been reading Mathematics of Poker & digesting the concept of putting your opponent on a distribution of hands instead of one specifically. This is a perfect example, I think, of being able to call the likely distribution of villain's hands. I don't play on this level, so I'm asking in a naive effort to improve myself. This feels like a call to me but its a great question with several high-end answers. Thanks for validating my time in the forum. [/ QUOTE ] If he's going to lead the flop and call a huge raise, he needs more than three nut outs to make that call. He can't have the NFD, so I can't think of any reasonable hand he would semibluff the flop then call a potsized raise with, in a heads-up pot, OOP, that contains 76. |
Re: Can I fold here?
Hi Shabamabam,
First, I want to know what you think villain thinks you have. You've been playing tight and he knows this. Maybe he thinks you're playing A2xx and he has something like A288 or A299 giving him bottom or middle set and thinks you're peddling for the low...not sure. BUT...Let's think in terms of what you have. You've got top set with 3 out of the 13 spades accounted for (one in your hand, two on the board). The 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and case 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are outs for you, so if villain has played something like KQJT with the Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he is drawing to the 3rd best flush and has 6 outs (he doesn't know you have the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]). But he also has an OESD with only 7 outs if he has a Queen in his hand. Currently you're ahead here and you can't back down now. I don't know how tight, straight-forward, or tricky villain is, but KQJT would be your biggest worry since it gives him 13 outs. OTOH, I really believe your only worry should be about villain holding A23x or A2xx and rivering a low card that doesn't counterfeit him, giving him low and splitting the pot. This would be a pretty easy call for me. Without reads on villain, it's hard to say though. That's why I asked earlier, what you think villain thinks you have. If he has bottom or middle set, a shot at low and thinks you're peddling for the low, I can see why he put his entire stack all-in on the turn. He probably thinks his set is good enough to scoop (his best case scenario) and if he rivers a low card he'll quarter you (still a good scenario for him). Everyone...let me know your thoughts. |
Re: Can I fold here?
[ QUOTE ]
The more and more I think about it, the fact that you have the As, it's more likely he has a smaller set and he puts you on a draw. [/ QUOTE ] YES! I agree. A288 or A299 is very likely here. We need to figure out what villain thinks our hero has in relationship to what we believe he (villain) is holding. This is what will make calling the turn an easy decision. Remember, hero has a tight image. |
Re: Can I fold here?
SuperEasy call vs. SteveZ.
I've seen him play around 50% of his hands even up to 7 handed, limp w 79TK in MP, and lead top/bottm pair on a two low, two-flush board in to a big field. He is willing to gamble. He plays enough hands to easily have the straight here, but could easily have twopair+low, flushdraw+low, set+low, set+draw, etc. too. But since you're posting this i'll guess he had A567 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] actually, i think its a call vs. others as well as anyone whose range is wide enough to be able to lead out on that flop w a 76xx in their hand has a wide enough range to include enough other hands you are ahead of. -g |
Re: Can I fold here?
[ QUOTE ]
SuperEasy call vs. SteveZ. I've seen him play around 50% of his hands even up to 7 handed, limp w 79TK in MP, and lead top/bottm pair on a two low, two-flush board in to a big field. He is willing to gamble. He plays enough hands to easily have the straight here, but could easily have twopair+low, flushdraw+low, set+low, set+draw, etc. too. But since you're posting this i'll guess he had A567 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] actually, i think its a call vs. others as well as anyone whose range is wide enough to be able to lead out on that flop w a 76xx in their hand has a wide enough range to include enough other hands you are ahead of. -g [/ QUOTE ] This is what I was really trying to get out. Villain is very complicated. PF, he is liable to limp any 4 within reason of course. Anyways... I was really taken by the push. I thought about it, and the timer ran out and I was forced to fold. After I had some time to think about it, I think it's more of a call. If he had a set, this would be the perfect line to take. Stop, see if a non-spade comes, and then go. |
Re: Can I fold here?
Some general comments:
In a situation like this, I ask myself if I have the best hand, and if I can scoop with a good river. Here, the answers are probably and yes. Those are good answers. In this hand, six players see the flop, whereupon it becomes heads up. If this was a common pattern for this table, a tricky player may do as villian did as a set play. Against two opponents it will get him broke, but heads up it may be a money maker with a lot of cheesey hands. It's possible to make your turn decision on the flop, when you potted it with top set, rather than on the turn. You had the option of considering your top set as a draw and smooth calling, or considering it as something stronger and raising. Here you raised. I'm not criticizing your play, but when I pot it on the flop in this situation, I'm pretty much committed to putting the rest of it in on the turn: seven cards improve me, the rest put a better hand or draw out there, so I pretty much know what's coming. jmo |
Re: Can I fold here?
why not raise preflop, it is hand to head up. if you dont like raise, just fold.
|
| All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:13 PM. |
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.