Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

I've been a winning player NL sh cash for 63k hands, making 3.35 big bets/100 plus rakeback, in various stakes, though mostly NL 100. Before that I was a winning player in limit sh cash, I didn't make more than 1bb/100 plus rakeback over 100k hands, but my skill level was much worse back then as I was just starting.

From then I've started playing in a friends account, and I've only lost and lost, though I know my game has been getting better. In this account I'm now at 107k hands, and I'm -1.71 bb/100. I didn't significantly go up in stakes, even in NL 100 I'm losing a lot (4.11bb/100 over 31k hands)

For quite a while I thought to myself, hey it's just a bad swing, but now I'm starting to doubt it. I know my game has flaws. I often do other stuff while at the tables, sometimes this costs me a pot here and there. Though I've always had that, even more than now also, so it's not like it's new. I can't identify any major flaw or leak that I didn't have before. So maybe the past 63k hands were an upswing, and now I'm seeing that I really suck?

I don't know, many of my friends are high stakes winning players, and though I know my level is beneath them, I more or less break even if I'm facing them in either heads up or in a sh game.

For some reference, my current numbers are 25.53/18.23/2.76. In the past 63k hands they were 29.22/18.26/4.12 (I was calling PF raises with debatable odds, now I tend to fold or rr more often. I was also much more aggressive with marginal hands post flop). If you want more stats just ask.

So, I'm looking for you to tell me if this can be just bad luck, or if I there's no chance I'm a winning player. Or someone tell me to what extent can I adjudicate this to variance and not to better/worse play by me.

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

omg wtf move up ldo!!!!!!

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

this new account must be doomswitched!!!


seriously though, just try tightening up, stats aren't everything. While your stats are what I see people saying is the 'winning players' range, they mean don't mean [censored] if you are leaking away chips by chasing too many draws. I notice you have a big aggro factor, maybe you are trying to push people around a little too much?

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

I don't know. My cbet % is around 60%, and I don't often continue bluffing after that. Sometimes I'll make situational bluffs, especially against super agressive players, but it doesn't seem like that's a major leak. In fact all the opposite, I seem to make a lot of $ off some players who just keep trying to take every pot. I don't know. I see myself outplaying the field big time, but the numbers just aren't showing this. Almost every session I have some bad beats, and rarely if ever do I seem to have any substantial good beats. But that can't be the whole thing after 107k hands, can it?

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

No - losing at $100 NL and lower over 100k hands is not just a downturn.

29.22/18.26/4.12

These are typical 'CR Donk' stats. Great if you are Green Plastic who is a great post-flop players and playing at stakes where folks will lay down. In my experience players with PFR over 15% are big losers in $100 6 max - check your 100k database and you will probably see the sweet spot for PFR is in the 10-15% range. Also you should check your positional stats in PT - they are critical.

If you are one of those guys who always open raises even UTG maybe you could try limping a bit. You need a great edge post-flop to get away with continually escalating a pot OOP with non-premium hands esp in an arena like $100 6 max where respect at the table is tough to come by.

If you are playign full ring then the same comments are even more true.

I think it's clear from your stats that you don't currently have that edge.

Finally the obvious point is that games on US sites have toughened up a lot post-Frist. Whether this toughening up at $100 is worth 5+PTBB I don't know - but it easily could be. If that's the case there is no conundrum - you are playing as well or even a little better than before, it's just that the opposition is a lot tougher and you can't now beat the rake.

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

games are tougher now

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

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In my experience players with PFR over 15% are big losers in $100 6 max


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No. Unless their VPIP is >30

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

I did look at this in my PT DB for 6 max - the 25/10's won much more than the 25/20's - but I will check again..

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

there are some better players now but that long a sample is a lot to be losing at this low level, def reevaluate ur play and post some hands

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

After 100k+ hands of -2ptbb/100 poker it should be fairly obvious that it's in no way a downswing. Games are tougher these days.

Sure, your stats are pretty, who cares though? They only paint a small part of the picture. The fact that you are a losing player but you are playing fairly ideally preflop shows that you, that in all likelihood (as in, pretty much guaranteed), you have glaring leaks and you're passing up major edges post-flop. What those are, I don't know because I've never played with you. My guess is that you're way too nitty and super easy to read.

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

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After 100k+ hands of -2ptbb/100 poker it should be fairly obvious that it's in no way a downswing. Games are tougher these days.

Sure, your stats are pretty, who cares though? They only paint a small part of the picture. The fact that you are a losing player but you are playing fairly ideally preflop shows that you, that in all likelihood (as in, pretty much guaranteed), you have glaring leaks and you're passing up major edges post-flop. What those are, I don't know because I've never played with you. My guess is that you're way too nitty and super easy to read.

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Wow.Seriously,I couldn't have put it better myself. I hate Strategy in BBV but this is some good stuff

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

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In my experience players with PFR over 15% are big losers in $100 6 max

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don't take this the wrong way, but the people opening a lot of hands preflop (certainly more then 15%) that ALSO have real post-flop skill are the ones making the real $ and are playing a lot higher then $.50/$1.00. It should be fairly easy for any competent tagg to rip apart some clueless idiot who thinks he is a lagg b/c he heard on a forum that's the way to go.

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

I am talking average here - I thought I made it clear that 25/20 is great way to play if you have good post-flop skills, but if you don't you will just donate more faster.

The OP most important stat is his PTBB/100. This shows he isn't in the 'good post-flop skills' department - so my point stands.

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

There´s just no way >100k hands is a downswing...

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

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In my experience players with PFR over 15% are big losers in $100 6 max


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No. Unless their VPIP is >30

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pf really is alot less important then post flop. vague statements like this arent true

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

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In my experience players with PFR over 15% are big losers in $100 6 max


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No. Unless their VPIP is >30

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pf really is alot less important then post flop. vague statements like this arent true

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I was just commenting that most players who have a PFR>15 aren't big losers like someone said, now if they have a high VPIP then its likely they are (assuming 4 or more at the table on average).

The comment about post-flop play is a valid one.

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

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now if they have a high VPIP then its likely they are

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that may be the case, but it's not because they have a high vpip, it's because in general players who play this many hands have bad post flop skills.

That's my point really. I hear alot of this stuff on 2+2 about how certain stats mean that you're going to win more or whatever, and I think it's rubbish.

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

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I am talking average here - I thought I made it clear that 25/20 is great way to play if you have good post-flop skills, but if you don't you will just donate more faster.

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I think we are on the same page here, part of my point though was that you aren't going to find a whole lot of good 25/20 type players at NL100, because players of that description are usually playing higher, and winning. I remember a while back I used to play like 13/6 at NL100 FR and nowadays I play right around that 25/20 zone at NL1k 6max, sometimes higher. I usually try to play a bit tighter in tough games and I like loosening up when there are some soft spots, esp in position.

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The OP most important stat is his PTBB/100. This shows he isn't in the 'good post-flop skills' department - so my point stands.

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I don't think I ever disputed this.. he either has to tighten up a bit (and probably practice good game/seat selection), or work on his post-flop play. This seems fairly obvious.

SORRY ABOUT THE STRATEGY IN BBV

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

I have great table/game selection... I put a lot of effort into that. I always know how many winning players I have in my tables, how many losing players, and how many pay stations, I always seek for the very best games only.

Maybe I suck at post flop play... But my play has definitely gotten better over the course of these 110k hands... So the 63k hands sample is just a swing in your opinion?

*also, when I play in any other site or account, I seem to win, win win... I know it's just variation, I'm an extreme skeptic. But still, it gives me more of a sense that the big loss over 110k hands could also be a swing. I'm not saying I should be winning 10bb/100, but maybe 2? How unlikely is it, really?

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

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I have great table/game selection... I put a lot of effort into that. I always know how many winning players I have in my tables, how many losing players, and how many pay stations, I always seek for the very best games only.


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Looks like the "If you cant spot the sucker, its you" phrase didnt take into account that suckers are able to look out for company.

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

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I have great table/game selection... I put a lot of effort into that. I always know how many winning players I have in my tables, how many losing players, and how many pay stations, I always seek for the very best games only.

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You have 107k hands on one of the players at the table and have admitted you don't know if they are a winning player. Are you sure you can identify winning players with much smaller samples?

<font color="white"> Lori </font>

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

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You have 107k hands on one of the players at the table and have admitted you don't know if they are a winning player. Are you sure you can identify winning players with much smaller samples?

<font color="white"> Lori </font>

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Absolutely funking priceless.
Don't change Lori, ever.

Re: Can this ever be a bad swing? 107k hands...
 

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You have 107k hands on one of the players at the table and have admitted you don't know if they are a winning player. Are you sure you can identify winning players with much smaller samples?

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It's a good point. But yeah, if I saw myself playing without looking at stats I'd think I'm a winning player. In any case, I'm looking to get opponents who on average play much worse than me, though you may argue that I'm not good at noticing or understanding that.