crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

i'm known here mainly as a futures bettor, but i'm working on expanding my system to incorporate single-game bets. at the very least, i'm only paying 2.2% juice, so i can't get killed too badly, right?

to prove how well this transformation went, i'll follow up this post with...a long list of props and futures i endorse, and if i feel bored enough, writeups.

stay tuned.

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

Waiting for your post. I bought the cubs on the over at 82 wins any thoughts?

Chicago

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Waiting for your post. I bought the cubs on the over at 82 wins any thoughts?

Chicago

[/ QUOTE ]

-110? I likey.

props
 

some 2007 props i like and have bet heavily:

White Sox under (insert number) W
Diamondbacks over 78.5 W
Dodgers under 88.5 W
Blue Jays under 87.5 W

these all pass my two main criteria for betting:

1. the projection test

Baseball Prospectus projected standings
RLYW Projection Blowout

Hardball Times projections

Dayn Perry's MLB power rankings

etc. etc.

as nate silver pointed out in a recent BP chat, some of the projection systems are down on the DBacks because they don't do minor league translations well. the better ones, like PECOTA and the new hardball times projections, are more optimistic towards arizona's chances.

the projections are basically unanimous on most of these teams.

2. the 'why is the line set here' test

White Sox: 189 wins the past two years, plenty of players who have established unreasonable expectations for 2007 (dye, erstad, garland, thome, lots more)

Arizona: underperformed their pythagorean wins last year, lots of great rookies coming up, solid but underrated offseason trades, underrated because they have no media stars.

Dodgers: a flurry of offseason activity covered for the fact that they lost (drew, maddux, lugo, lofton, gagne) or benched (kemp, loney, laroche) more talent than they added.

Blue Jays: benefited from breakout/fluke seasons last year (JOHNSON, rios, ryan, WELLS, overbay). decline from these guys will more than offset frank thomas' impact, but the public refuses to accept that.

as a side note, bodog and the greek, and maybe others, have a LAD-ARI season series line where the Diamondbacks are dogs even though they have a better team this year. i recently saw Arizona at +155 on bodog.

Re: props
 

now THIS looks like an awesome thread that I will love to read even well beyond 4/7. pls keep them coming crockpot

player props
 

edited to credit Card08 for pointing a lot of these out to me.

player props:

Joe Blanton under 15.5 W
Ervin Santana under 15 W
Jon Garland under 16.5 W
Gary Matthews Jr. under .302 BA
Bobby Jenks under 38 Sv
Francisco Rodriguez over 1.90 ERA
Justin Morneau under 127 RBI
Mike Piazza over 59.5 RBI
Takashi Saito under 35.5 Sv
Ben Sheets over 170 K
Huston Street over 2.24 ERA
Justin Verlander under 15.5 W
Barry Zito under 16 W

most of these are at bodog.

with a few exceptions (verlander and the closers), these props require a minimum of 140 games or 25 starts (pitchers) for action. this explains why i bet the sheets and piazza overs, as they are very likely to beat those totals anytime they stay healthy, but it does hurt the win total unders since an injury is no longer an automatic victory.

still, i don't know how anyone, even hawk harrelson or ozzie, can think jon garland will win 17 games this year. you'll notice several common links between the starters i chose:

- not the best starter on his own team
- fluky high win totals in past years
- team will win fewer games in 2007 than in 2006

as for the others, saito and jenks both are at the risk of being replaced after early ineffectiveness, pitch for teams that will win fewer games than projected, and come with inherent risk (saito's mediocre japanese numbers and jenks' control, injury, and poor spring). morneau, street, and k-rod have established levels of performance that they cannot keep up.

matthews...if you think he has a chance in hell of batting .302 in a full season, there's a for sale sign on my bridge.

Field to win AL Cy Young 10-1
Field to win NL Cy Young 10-1
Tie for ML lead in pitcher wins 5-1

the tie looks like it happens roughly one year in three. i have no idea why the line was ever this good, but i think it's been bet down now by anyone who can check baseball-reference.

as for the field bets, first, it's important to keep in mind that the league leader in wins is the favorite, so this award is prone to a luckbox winner like colon in '05. here are some names that are part of the field, among many others with an outside shot:

AL:
Lackey
Haren
Escobar
Mussina

NL:
Peavy
Harang
Garcia
Hamels

yes, that would be jake peavy, probably the first person i draft if i'm in a pool to name this year's cy winner.

both of these are still 10-1 on bodog.

AL team futures
 

AL team futures

refer to the earlier post for links to projections.

Cleveland Indians
to win division 4-1
to win AL 14-1
to win WS 25-1

the projections love them, and why not? they had 90-win talent last year but wasted it by winning a lot of slaughter rule games and blowing the close ones. i had to double-check to make sure that fausto carmona actually failed to convert a single save last year, even though he is a good pitcher.

assuming eric wedge deploys his troops well, the indians should be even better, because they have a ton of platoon players (nixon, michaels, dellucci) who will perform better in limited roles.

i'd estimate their true odds at 2.3-1 to win division, 9-1 to win league, 15-1 to win WS.

Minnesota Twins
to win division 4-1
to win AL 14-1
to win WS 25-1

the AL/WS lines peaked at 15/1 and 30/1 (actually, the indians ones did too), but have been bet down by some sharps who realize, hey, maybe this team is pretty good.

even without liriano, the twins return a very solid core of top talent in mauer, morneau, santana, and nathan. the bullpen is absolutely sick and will remain so even with some regression. just look at their domination in pitching rate stats despite playing in the much stronger league last year.

the twins should do well in the playoffs as a team built around a core of power pitching and defense, and one that could conceivably be much better in october than april just by promoting garza and slowey from within--and maybe even bringing liriano back for relief in the playoffs.

estimated true odds: 1.7-1, 6.5-1, 11-1.

Other bets
Orioles to win division 100-1
Mariners to win division 14-1

i don't think either of these teams are particularly better than the public does, but i do think the public underestimates the chances of an unlikely division champ. the tigers, after all, opened at 30-1 to win their division and 100-1 to win the AL last year.

Re: AL team futures
 

NL team futures

refer to earlier post for projection links

Arizona Diamondbacks
to win division 6-1
to win NL 25-1
to win WS 60-1

my favorite play of the year. i'm just quoting widely available lines here, but i got as high as 9-1, 35-1, and 100-1. kyleb says he got even better on the NL.

teams that are ready to shock the world are always good futures bets because the sportsbook underestimates not only their chances of advancing to the next stage but also of winning future rounds. who would have guessed at any point in 2006 that the tigers would open as a 2-1 favorite in the WS?

Arizona is another pitching-and-defense team, but unlike the top-heavy Twins, they have a balanced lineup with no real weak spots, plus a very deep and talented bench. except for Webb, no possible single injury can cripple them given their surplus of dependable replacements.

estimated true odds: 2.3-1, 8-1, 20-1

Colorado Rockies
to win division 15-1
to win NL 50-1

the rockies should have near-.500 talent this year, and between the inherent variance in baseball and an NL with zero dominant teams, they should have a far better chance than these lines indicate. they also have a young lineup with reasonable breakout potential.

as we all know, betting sports isn't about having a crystal ball, it's about finding value. if you choose to pass on these longshots, i can't blame you, but i would much rather take a bet with an estimated ROI of around 100% than a 6-team parlay.

estimated true odds: 7-1, 25-1

Milwaukee Brewers
to win division 7-1
to win NL 25-1

everyone's favorite surprise team from last year. Joe Sheehan writes each year about "post-hype sleepers" in fantasy, the guys who still own all the skills that projected a breakout last year, but their images have soured in the mind of fantasy managers.

in a way, the brewers are this year's post-hype sleeper team. they were supposed to ride to the playoffs last year on the backs of players who got hurt (sheets, weeks, hardy), were ineffective (davis) or traded (lee).

this year's team has just as many breakout candidates: sheets and weeks again (if they stay healthy), fielder, dave bush, ryan braun, corey hart. if bill hall can handle center, the team should get above-average offense from five positions, with third base the only real weak spot, assuming braun doesn't come save the day by magically learning to field. the rotation includes the NL's best pitcher--if healthy--and a well above average 2-5.

i don't think the brewers are much more than an 83- or 84-win team, but in the 2007 NL Central, that's good enough.

estimated true odds: 4-1, 15-1

other bets
Pirates to win division 50-1
Braves to win division 8-1
Phillies to win division 4-1
Padres to win NL 14-1

these lines appear to have all bitten the dust, but they were solid when available.

really, the NL is so weak this year that the most important thing is to fade the favorites and hope you get lucky.

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

Hey Crock,

Thanks for the credit on the prop finds. I've got one more that could be of value.

I like Bob Melvin for NL manager of the year at 15-1. If the Dbacks show a marked improvement over last year's bad team (which they are likely to do even if they don't make the playoffs), Melvin has to be better than a randomly selected 1/16 shot. Thoughts?

Card

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

BP's 2007 postseason odds report is out.

though it confirms good bets on most of my picks, that's not the point. there are a couple of important things to take away from the report, both dealing with randomness.

first, the postseason chances for some of the teams might surprise you, but BP (correctly) adds in a random variable to account for the naturally imperfect ability to project a team's true level of talent during the season.

if you look at the RLYW projections, you notice that despite using a fine simulation software in diamond mind, for most teams they come up with intervals of 12 to 14 wins between (-1 SD) to (+1 SD), so a 6 to 7 win standard deviation. this compares favorably to the standard deviation of 6.3 wins you get with absolutely perfect information. (i highly recommend that anyone who bets futures reads this article, which is sort of like a "fooled by randomness" for projecting team standings.)

second, you may also find it shocking that although no individual NL team projection is over 88 wins, the three division champs average 99 wins apiece, and the wild card averages 95. again, this should not be too surprising, though i do think these numbers look too high by a game or two. remember that these projections are inexact, so there's a reasonable chance one or two teams actually start the year with 90-win talent. add in the natural variance in baseball, and you're going to see a lot of dispersion from "expected" results.

imagine sending 16 breakeven poker players to play 162 hands apiece, or 10000 for that matter. do you expect their results to stay close to even, ignoring rake? i would suggest you're more likely to see a few who run well and a few who run poorly, just like in baseball.

not to trivialize the 2006 seasons of the tigers and cubs, but they fit this model well. you can look all day without finding a single viable source who had the tigers down for over 90 wins or the cubs for fewer than 70.

at any rate, projecting the standings with a SD of 6.3 games is impossible, and we should expect a true SD of around 9 games to account for injuries, playing time adjustments, trades, midseason callups, etc. IN ADDITION to the inherent coin-flipping variance.

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Crock,

Thanks for the credit on the prop finds. I've got one more that could be of value.

I like Bob Melvin for NL manager of the year at 15-1. If the Dbacks show a marked improvement over last year's bad team (which they are likely to do even if they don't make the playoffs), Melvin has to be better than a randomly selected 1/16 shot. Thoughts?

Card

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not sure this is as good a bet as the NL pennant prop, but i think it's +EV on its own.

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

another point on variance. if a team like the devil rays breaks out and wins 15-20 games more than projected, the unbalanced schedule makes it likely that three or four of these wins will be against the red sox and yankees, which is a built-in advantage for the underdog to reach the playoffs.

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

ty for your work as always
[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

while many baseball bettors like to wait a month and see how things are going to shake out, it's my opinion that the most inefficient market is on opening day. thus you may see me take the counterintuitive position of betting more in april than later on.

i'm starting out with a 1-4 unit scale, BR of 200 units.

4/1: no plays
4/2: milwaukee -110 (4 units)

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

I did this about 2 days ago, found like 50 really good looking bets on Bodog, but then thought :

I need to be so right about these for this to be good for me to make money off of this. Most of the bets are at -115, so even if I make 10k of bets, the absolute best return I could make is ~8k, and that's basically impossible when you factor in the many likely no actions. The baseball season is over 6 months, that's a long time, and there are probably better things to be doing with your money.

Thoughts?

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

[ QUOTE ]
while many baseball bettors like to wait a month and see how things are going to shake out, it's my opinion that the most inefficient market is on opening day. thus you may see me take the counterintuitive position of betting more in april than later on.

[/ QUOTE ]

The first month of the baseball season is the greatest thing ever.

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I did this about 2 days ago, found like 50 really good looking bets on Bodog, but then thought :

I need to be so right about these for this to be good for me to make money off of this. Most of the bets are at -115, so even if I make 10k of bets, the absolute best return I could make is ~8k, and that's basically impossible when you factor in the many likely no actions. The baseball season is over 6 months, that's a long time, and there are probably better things to be doing with your money.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad a lot of people think this.

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I did this about 2 days ago, found like 50 really good looking bets on Bodog, but then thought :

I need to be so right about these for this to be good for me to make money off of this. Most of the bets are at -115, so even if I make 10k of bets, the absolute best return I could make is ~8k, and that's basically impossible when you factor in the many likely no actions. The baseball season is over 6 months, that's a long time, and there are probably better things to be doing with your money.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

i wouldn't put my whole bankroll down on these bets, if that's what you mean. i have 5k sitting around that i may not use at all, and in six months i now expect it to be 7k. that's good enough for me, but it may not be for you.

i've already had bets on wang and rogers no-actioned for starting the season on the DL, so i do see your point.

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

Also, Bodog has confirmed to me that if you make an over bet, and it hits, if the player doesn't still play 140 games(or whatever) it is a no action.

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I did this about 2 days ago, found like 50 really good looking bets on Bodog, but then thought :

I need to be so right about these for this to be good for me to make money off of this. Most of the bets are at -115, so even if I make 10k of bets, the absolute best return I could make is ~8k, and that's basically impossible when you factor in the many likely no actions. The baseball season is over 6 months, that's a long time, and there are probably better things to be doing with your money.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad a lot of people think this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain?

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

Not really.

You either have better things to do with your money or you don't. It seems you haven't really done any sort of in depth thought on this, which is good for people who bet sports to win money.

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

Why is that good for people who bet sports to win money?

All i'm saying is that you have to be much more confident in these types of bets compared to your normal game day bet, and I think the difference in confidence needs to be significant considering the time value of money of nearly 7 months.

Not to mention the small chance of Bodog(or sites like them) changing their stance on U.S. gaming over this time period.

These kinds of bets are perfect for credit based books, where you just pay when you lose, but that doesn't exist legally or online.(At least I don't think)

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

If you had already worked the numbers out, what are you asking?

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why is that good for people who bet sports to win money?

All i'm saying is that you have to be much more confident in these types of bets compared to your normal game day bet, and I think the difference in confidence needs to be significant considering the time value of money of nearly 7 months.

Not to mention the small chance of Bodog(or sites like them) changing their stance on U.S. gaming over this time period.

These kinds of bets are perfect for credit based books, where you just pay when you lose, but that doesn't exist legally or online.(At least I don't think)

[/ QUOTE ]

they exist. don't ask me how to use them (b/c I don't know).

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I did this about 2 days ago, found like 50 really good looking bets on Bodog, but then thought :

I need to be so right about these for this to be good for me to make money off of this. Most of the bets are at -115, so even if I make 10k of bets, the absolute best return I could make is ~8k, and that's basically impossible when you factor in the many likely no actions. The baseball season is over 6 months, that's a long time, and there are probably better things to be doing with your money.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

most of these guys barely even play poker. they have nothing better to do with their money on bodog than let it sit in mlb futures for the entire spring, summer, and fall.

(only responding because i thought about whether i should put money into what i'm sure are +ev bets here, and at least for this year, don't think it's worth the hassle)

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

crockpot- I bet the over on Ryan Howard having more than 134 hits(-120). He had 182 last year.

I understand that teams are going to be more careful pitching to him. However Utley and Victorino should be on base a lot.

I feel extremely confident about this bet, am I missing something?

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I feel extremely confident about this bet, am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am no crockpot. But injury concerns and various other stipulations can reduce EV. However, some of the stipulations that Bodog makes creates bets that are almost locks, requiring like a 3-4SD performance in one direction to whiff for you.

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

Ryan Howard's Under of .305 BA is a much better bet to me than his hits. No way he can keep up that BABIP this year.

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

[ QUOTE ]
crockpot- I bet the over on Ryan Howard having more than 134 hits(-120). He had 182 last year.

I understand that teams are going to be more careful pitching to him. However Utley and Victorino should be on base a lot.

I feel extremely confident about this bet, am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

like it a lot with the 140 game minimum. he probably won't bat .313 again, but everything in his minor league numbers indicates .290 is well within reach. he'll get walked more this year but also won't bat fifth or sixth, which is worth maybe an extra 15-20 PA. plus you have built in injury insurance.

line is a lot worse now.

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

To expand on my earlier point -

Piazza O/U (min 140 games) RBI 59.5(-140)

Despite the juice this is a layup bet, I mean it's nearly impossible for Piazza to play 140 games and not get 60 RBI, right?

Well, that's not even the most important thing to consider in this bet. The most important thing to consider is how likely Piazza won't play 140 games, and then the potential money you lose by having it locked up for 6+ months.


I'm sure my original post sounded rather noobish(and maybe this one as well), but I guess I was just trying to explain to the masses who may just think "ooh wow, this is a good bet" that there is more to making a future bet than just the actual bet and it's +EVness in a vacuum.

Re: AL team futures
 

[ QUOTE ]
NL team futures

refer to earlier post for projection links

Arizona Diamondbacks
to win division 6-1
to win NL 25-1
to win WS 60-1

my favorite play of the year. i'm just quoting widely available lines here, but i got as high as 9-1, 35-1, and 100-1. kyleb says he got even better on the NL.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if I told you I got it at 50-1?

Re: AL team futures
 

you might get death threats and your account hacked?

Re: AL team futures
 

[ QUOTE ]
you might get death threats and your account hacked?

[/ QUOTE ]

I got it at the Venetian prior to the trades :P

Re: AL team futures
 

[ QUOTE ]
What if I told you I got it at 50-1?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, i saw the post. mild jealousy here, but i'll take my volume over your higher ROI.

the arizona WS share price and volume are making big jumps (relatively speaking) on tradesports recently. interesting.

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

[ QUOTE ]
The most important thing to consider is how likely Piazza won't play 140 games, and then the potential money you lose by having it locked up for 6+ months.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't Piazza DHing? Why wouldn't he play 140 games?

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

He's a 37 year old former catcher, and he's gotten 140 games in 5 of the last 15 years or so?

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

He played 126 games last season (not to mention 68 RBIs) as a catcher. This season, he will be playing a much less physically demanding position (i.e. sitting on the bench). I don't think squeezing out an extra 14 games is too unrealistic. The RBIs will not be an issue.

And even if you think he might not hit 140 games and the bet will be graded as no action - just don't bet a lot on it? If you bet a unit or two on the other props, bet .5 or 1 unit on this one. It's really not a big deal.

Re: AL team futures
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What if I told you I got it at 50-1?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, i saw the post. mild jealousy here, but i'll take my volume over your higher ROI.

the arizona WS share price and volume are making big jumps (relatively speaking) on tradesports recently. interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously your volume kills my ROI, I'm just in it for the rooting shares.

I like all of your bets, but don't like the reasoning on the Takashi Saito bet. That assumes that the Dodgers' management actually pays attention to anything, which has not held true in recent history. That being said, I still like the under.

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The most important thing to consider is how likely Piazza won't play 140 games, and then the potential money you lose by having it locked up for 6+ months.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't Piazza DHing? Why wouldn't he play 140 games?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's still a possibility that he could sit in favor of people like Durazo or others as the season goes down the stretch.

Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
 

what do you think of Derrek Lee over .284 BA at -130? He hit .335 in 05 and .286 in 06 playing hurt a lot of that time.