Final Four
 

Thoughts?

tOSU vs. Town
Opened at tOSU -1 at some, now GTown -1.
Opened at 126.5, now 130 and rising.

Gators opened 3, 3 or 3.5 now. Total solid at 130 or so.


I admit to not understanding the Florida line. Help explain to my ignorant self. UCLA catching 2.5 vs. Kansas on a pseudo home court that had to be worth a point and a half. Call it 4 on a truly neutral court.

Now they travel 3 time zones to Atlanta, and with Carolina out, it should be a pretty big Florida fan base. Pseudo home game. And the spread is sitting at 3? How is it lower. I'm guessing FLA would've been favored by a point or two vs. KU.

I don't understand why it's not at 4.5 or 5. Naj, MT2R, thoughts?

BTW, I think UCLA is pretty dang good and could win, this is just trying to understand why the line is where it is.

Re: Final Four
 

I definitely like the Buckeyes at +1. It will likely grind to a stalemate inside and since Oden's better on the defensive end and G'Town's bigs are counted on more for scoring, that will work in OSU's favor. If it comes down to a 3-point contest when neither team can penetrate or score inside, OSU's definitely got the better shooters

Also, I agree on the Florida game. I think the Gators should be favored by 4 or 4.5 in Atlanta. A couple things to note though are that the location was underadjusted for last week and the UCLA/Kansas line was off more than this one, that so many fans/rich executives travel for the Final Four that the pseudo-home advantage won't mean as much there, and that UCLA's probably getting a lot of square supporters since their win against Kansas was more impressive than Florida's win over Oregon.

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UCLA is coming together at the right time, after really struggling through the month of February, and the conference tournament. I've played and watched a lot of college hoops in my time and I have NEVER seen more impressive inside defense than UCLA put on Kansas. They flat out took away the paint, and they did it to a really good team; in fact a team I believe is as good as Florida or maybe better. UCLA had KU scouted to a tee, and knew everything they were going to do. This is superior coaching not only by Howlett but by his assistants. No way I'd take the Gators in this matchup. And understand, I am NOT a UCLA fan.

The OSU-GT game is tighter than tight. But I give GT a little edge. I think a lot of this is coaching. JTIII has put in a solid system that reflects his background under Petey Carril. His team plays a lot smarter than the more athletic OSU, who I think will have problems handling the backdoors, etc that the Hoyas will throw at them. While not a "fan" of anybody, I'll admit I have GT on top in my bracket, and continue to believe they can take the whole thing.

So I make it UCLA-GT in the final. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Just my $.02 worth...

bc

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Hoyas settling in as 1pt fav. Total down to 129.

UCLA money pushing back down to FLA -3. Total still steady at 130ish.

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Any idea if UCLA will get back to 3.5 again?

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Hoyas settling in as 1pt fav. Total down to 129.

UCLA money pushing back down to FLA -3. Total still steady at 130ish.

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I took GTown at +1 when it opened. Fla should be about 3.5, that sounds good to me. Lee Humphrey ain't gonna make 7 3s a half every game, Oregon gave them a hell of a battle with their PG going from 33 to 2 pts or whatever. 'Revenge' game for UCLA as well gives them a touch extra motivation, and Collison at PG > Farmar.

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Does revenge actually matter in the Final Four, or any playoff game in any sport for that matter? Does that mean tOSU has a revenge angle?

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Almost all of the totals for playoff games have risen a decent amount from their openings. I can't put this information to good use, but maybe someone else can.

Re: Final Four
 

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Almost all of the totals for playoff games have risen a decent amount from their openings. I can't put this information to good use, but maybe someone else can.

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I got in decent sized bets over 126.5 and 127.5 in the GTown-tOSU game. Yay.

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The only place that I see that had that was Cris and ABC? They opened at 126 and 127 respectively and just about everyone else opened at 128.5. The lowest I saw was 129.5 on FLA and its only at 129. Anyways, OSU total moved so much because 94% of people are on the over, and 74% on the FLA over.

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The only place that I see that had that was Cris and ABC? They opened at 126 and 127 respectively and just about everyone else opened at 128.5. The lowest I saw was 129.5 on FLA and its only at 129. Anyways, OSU total moved so much because 94% of people are on the over, and 74% on the FLA over.

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1.5 dimes at CRIS at 127.5. Dime at Wynn at 26.5 and another dime at Wynn at 27.5.

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Nice, I need to move to vegas.

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Been amazed at how much variance there's been on lines in town the whole tournament.

For the Florida/Oregon game, got over 141.5 at the Venetian the night before when it was solid 143 everywhere else and closed at 144.5.

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Does revenge actually matter in the Final Four, or any playoff game in any sport for that matter?

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Sure, depending on the team and how many important players are back. It's just another way to express desire. Desire is an important component of competition.

Do you really think 100% of players on court are giving 100% on each play in 100% of all games during 100% of their entire [playoff or not] career?

Do you ever think some players/teams are overconfident?
Do some teams seem to always want to cover the spread, for whatever reason, not letting up, or not subbing, or scoring rather than run out clock, etc? [or Total, etc]

It's just one of many important factors.

Re: Final Four
 

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Nice, I need to move to vegas.

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Why not just call CRIS like everyone else?

Re: Final Four
 

This is more of a general question. How much of a factor should the possibility of overtime play when betting the over/under?

Re: Final Four
 

I don't know Najdorf, I usually put more stock into motivation than the average person, but I honestly don't think it matters at all when you're in the Final Four. I think that yes, every player playing in the Final Four this weekend will be putting in 100% effort on every play. Florida's faced way too many close calls to get overconfident against a team as good as UCLA, and after all they've done to try to get back-to-back titles (foregoing millions in the case of Noah), there's no way they'd be lacking motivation.

If you're just using the hypothetical of "any playoff game" to say that an NBA team up 2-0 in a 1/8 series might not be fully motivated or that it was a factor in whether Kansas covered the spread against Niagara, I'd totally agree with you, but discussing it in a Final Four game where the spread is < 5 seems utterly meaningless to me.

Re: Final Four
 

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Nice, I need to move to vegas.

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Why not just call CRIS like everyone else?

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That is what I do, but the numbers seem to last longer on the land casinos. People have been saying that some of the vegas casinos have totals that have been 3 points lower at gametime than the offshore books.

Re: Final Four
 

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This is more of a general question. How much of a factor should the possibility of overtime play when betting the over/under?

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bump?

Re: Final Four
 

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I admit to not understanding the Florida line. Help explain to my ignorant self. UCLA catching 2.5 vs. Kansas on a pseudo home court that had to be worth a point and a half. Call it 4 on a truly neutral court.

Now they travel 3 time zones to Atlanta, and with Carolina out, it should be a pretty big Florida fan base. Pseudo home game. And the spread is sitting at 3? How is it lower. I'm guessing FLA would've been favored by a point or two vs. KU.

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You have to take into account that UCLA's team value went up by beating KU.

Re: Final Four
 

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This is more of a general question. How much of a factor should the possibility of overtime play when betting the over/under?

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bump?

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It's pretty important, but it is also well reflected in the lines (like everything else). You will not find an edge by trying to look for "over-weighted" or "under-weighted" likelihoods for overtime. It is frustrating when you have under and it shoulda won but goes over due to OT. Equally, it is major suckout when OVER comes in for you for same reason. Just one of the many reasons why variance is so wide in sportsbetting. These markets are extremely efficient and you will simply not find significantly good/bad value in the lines, especially on big games. Period.

But by all means if you have a "hunch" that OT is relatively likely for whatever reason, go ahead and take a flier on the over. But don't expect the OT factor to be a very big reason why your bet may win.......

Re: Final Four
 

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I admit to not understanding the Florida line. Help explain to my ignorant self. UCLA catching 2.5 vs. Kansas on a pseudo home court that had to be worth a point and a half. Call it 4 on a truly neutral court.

Now they travel 3 time zones to Atlanta, and with Carolina out, it should be a pretty big Florida fan base. Pseudo home game. And the spread is sitting at 3? How is it lower. I'm guessing FLA would've been favored by a point or two vs. KU.

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You have to take into account that UCLA's team value went up by beating KU.

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Exactly. This accounts for 100% of what confused OP. That performance was very significant.

BUT - is it being given just a little bit TOO much respect?? That's really the question....

Re: Final Four
 

Random thoughts - caveat that I'm a Gator.

This squad of starters is 9-0 in the Georgia Dome over the past 3 years in single elim tourney games. The most recent coming 3 weeks ago where the average margin of victory was just under 20ppg.

Additionally, it's worth noting that Humphrey and Green have shot just under 49% from long range in the Dome during those 9 games (shooters are known for sometimes struggling to adjust to the backdrops of large Domes - the Georgia Dome is for football and the court is set in one of the endzones).

Many talk about UCLA's defense and Florida's offense but make no mistake that Florida's success and consistency also comes from their defense. They run a faster tempo than UCLA and thus allow more ppg but they are holding opponents to a lower fg%.

FG%-FGA%
UF = 52.7% - 40.6% = 12.1%
UCLA = 48.0% - 42.6% = 5.4%

3FG%-3FGA%
UF = 40.5% - 20.1% = 20.4% (Wow!!!)
UCLA = 37.9% -35.4% = 2.5%

Of course UCLA has had a tougher SoS and if you go to KenPom you'll see he has UCLA as having a tougher adjD but it's something to consider. That 3fga% is pretty staggering and no anomaly as Coach Donovan stresses that the big men flash out to the perimeter and get a hand in the faces of the opposing teams shooters.

I read an article which noted that the "smart" early money moved the line slightly in favor of UCLA.

A comment was made regarding fan base. As a Florida fan living in Atlanta, I still would predict UF has the smallest representation, even as defending champs. I hope I'm wrong though. The school just doesn't travel for hoops like they do for football yet - even when it's only a short trip up from Gainesville.

Re: Final Four
 

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I admit to not understanding the Florida line. Help explain to my ignorant self. UCLA catching 2.5 vs. Kansas on a pseudo home court that had to be worth a point and a half. Call it 4 on a truly neutral court.

Now they travel 3 time zones to Atlanta, and with Carolina out, it should be a pretty big Florida fan base. Pseudo home game. And the spread is sitting at 3? How is it lower. I'm guessing FLA would've been favored by a point or two vs. KU.

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You have to take into account that UCLA's team value went up by beating KU.

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Exactly. This accounts for 100% of what confused OP. That performance was very significant.

BUT - is it being given just a little bit TOO much respect?? That's really the question....

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What was significant about it, the 3-4 total prayer 3pters that went in, or the 5-10 layups that KU missed?

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At the last minute, I realized that today is Friday, not Thursday, and as such the Final Four games will be tomorrow. Anyway, here are my bets. (All on Bodog, so I probably could have done better by line-shopping. Whatever.)

Georgetown/Ohio State under 131 (Risk 5.75u to win 5u)
Georgetown vs. Ohio State +1 (Risk 4.4u to win 4u)
UCLA vs. Florida -3.5 (Risk 3u to win 2.85u)
Donk parlay: OSU +1, G'T/OSU under 131, Florida -3.5, UF/UCLA over 130 (Risk 1u to win 12.03u)

Re: Final Four
 

I bet Georgetown at +1 when it opened. Georgetown can run a lot of big bodies at Oden and if he gets in foul trouble (which he is prone too) they will have a lot of difficulty competing. If the line steams to around Ohio St +3 I would consider buying back though.

For the UCLA Florida game I think a the side and total are highly correlated. The line seems solid so I bet UCLA and the under just because I hate Florida and everything about them including the song their band plays. If you like Florida parlay them with the over. If UCLA wins or covers a low scoring game played at their tempo is more likely. A higher scoring game is more likely if Florida covers the spread.

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Town/tOSU total is rising after having settled in at 129.5 for a while. Up to 130.5 and seems to be rising.

Re: Final Four
 

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At the last minute, I realized that today is Friday, not Thursday, and as such the Final Four games will be tomorrow. Anyway, here are my bets. (All on Bodog, so I probably could have done better by line-shopping. Whatever.)

Georgetown/Ohio State under 131 (Risk 5.75u to win 5u)
Georgetown vs. Ohio State +1 (Risk 4.4u to win 4u)
UCLA vs. Florida -3.5 (Risk 3u to win 2.85u)
Donk parlay: OSU +1, G'T/OSU under 131, Florida -3.5, UF/UCLA over 130 (Risk 1u to win 12.03u)

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What was your thinking behind the under in that game. You must be rather confident given that you're betting 5 units. I personally don't see an edge on that bet either way. I can see it I think 66-65 is a very probable score and that, if anything, it may go over if the OSU guards heat up from the perimeter. However, I also see the under hitting if Oden dominates the paint and G'Town can't find a good way to score thus slowing the pace of the game down. So I dunno, I couldn't think of a good bet either way.

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I think the squares that have only watched tournament games (maybe even only watched the G'Town/UNC game) are driving this number way, way higher than it should be. If this was a regular season game, I can't believe it would go off higher than 127 and even at 125, I'd still take the under on it. Here's the heart of my analysis, X-posted from the OSU/G'Town thread:

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The average total for Georgetown over the entire season is 125.8. Ohio State, even with an offense that's slightly better than their defense is a below-average team for overall scoring, due to their slow place. That means that the total will likely be 125 or under. Factor in that Georgetown and OSU both get a lot of points from exploiting mismatches in the low post, and that those mismatches won't be present on Saturday, and I think you have a recipe for a game that's likely to be really low-scoring. If I were to make a prediction for the game, it would be Ohio State 62-58.

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Re: Final Four
 

why the under on Ohio State/G'Town

KenPom predicts 127...enough said

ok, don't blindly follow the stat crunchers and goto the actual match-ups. G'Town plays a hybrid of the Princeton ol' school back door cuts and more modern individual play-making. They are extremely deliberate (last in pace in the entire country...328 out of 328), but very effective. They don't take bad shots. More importantly, they don't rush up and down the court unless it is wide open. If they shoot within the first 15 seconds, it is either a gimme or they failed to execute their sets. So, the Hoyas will look for easy cuts. Those usually aren't very forthcoming from a big11ten defense, especially so in this individual case. With Oden, the perimeter/wing athletes, Hunter, and the 2-3 zone that stymies quick strikes and clogs the middle, these early back cuts will not be open. When they cannot get their cuts, the Hoyas rely on getting the ball to their individually talented studs, Hibbert and Green. Those guys will have a tougher time than normal as there are very few defensive presences like Greg Oden. The guy is a beast. However, if the Hoya guards nail their 3s as Tennessee did or penetrate all over Conley and Co as they abused Lawson in the second half, the Hoyas can put up the points. However, when weighting possible outcomes, I see those scenarios as less likely.

On the other end, tOSU is also quite deliberate. I've thought they've been deliberate to a fault this year, but I was wrong: 15-1 Big11Ten champs, BTT champs, and a final four pretty much respond to any criticism I have of Matta slowing down the offense. tOSU does like to take its time, but presents a wide variety of offensive options. First and foremost, get the ball to Oden. The beauty is that Hibbert's size and talent (haha Dorsey) is something that will bother Oden a little. G'Town is one of the best teams in the country at blocking and altering shots. Second, tOSU can have Conley penetrate and either shoot or kick. G'Town has been awesome all year at both stopping penetration and having a hand in the face of 3 point shooters. The Hoyas hold opponents to 30.3% 3FG%. That is among the top10 in the country. G'Town did beat such 3-point bombing teams as West Virginia (53 pts), Notre Dame (82 pts), and Vandy (65 pts), while losing to Oregon (57 pts). The third option for the Buckeyes is to use some one-on-one talent to create shots, such as Daequan Cook. G'Town's shot blockers and athleticism really make this hard.

Then, we get to the point that neither defense is particularly strong at creating turnovers. Ohio State has also been quite stingy about giving the ball away. This means that you will not see many fast break, open court dunks. This won't be your half-ass rec league type of ball. This should likely be a half court beautiful chess match. I personally cannot wait as that is just the style that midwesterners crave.

Re: Final Four
 

FYI - WSEX is back to PK (-110) on OSU/GT
if anyone's interested

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Anyone like UCLA+3?

Just noticed its OSU+1.5, maybe it will go to 2??

Re: Final Four
 

Take UCLA+3

Florida will lose to UCLA today

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I like Ohio State just because almost no one on ESPN does. I think the Florida-UCLA line is about right.

OSU +1.5 (-115)
OSU-GU u131 (-115)

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Everyone whos likes UCLA. I like UCLA and I know a lot of "sharps" are on that side. My reason for liking UCLA is because Fla. is the laziest team in the NCAA (IMHO), they are a quase-NBA team and really do the bare minimum because they are so freaking nasty. I feel like that mentality catches them here. Anyways, has anyone seen a reall good writeup as to why ucla is the play? My logic isnt really the best.

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I can't imagine them doing the 'bare minimum' in the final-four.
But it sure looked like they were on coast-control a little bit in some of the earlier round games so who knows.

I still like FLA.
Me = The ultimate square

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I took GT -1 & UF -3. I have both of these teams in the finals on my sheets. After watching all of the tourney games w/these teams, I'm not backing off those picks now.

GT should be favored by 2-2.5. UF should have home court adv, despite their horrible fan support to this point, and I've got that line at 5.5.

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i'm on OSU +1 and the over parlayed but i'm a total square so i'll likely go 0-2

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Im on GT +1.5 (bought some points)

My free loot from sportsbook.com for the superbowl is still in play. If I win $6 more dollars I can cash out $50.

If this pick doesn't come through Im going to chase my losses with a larger bet on the 2nd game.

Busto or robusto here I come. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

2nd game Im looking at Fla+0 with the extra points.

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I'm on Georgetown -0.5 (Skybook free 1/2 point).

Oden already has 2 fouls in 2 minutes. Go Hoyas!