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-   -   a simple aq/ak riggedness question (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=363131)

kylma 03-24-2007 02:58 PM

a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
You have AQ or AK 35 times.. You flop top pair 2 times..
How likely is that event?
How long could you go on without thinking that the site is not rigged against you?

Not only that.. You have five flush draws, and hit it once, just to see a rivered boat..

You start playing short stacked, and win only if everyone folds.. You lose 90% of the all ins when you get called.. Including several backdoor flushes.. In almost all of the all in situations, about 20 times, you were a coinflip at worst.. So you lose like 17-18 times when you were a coinflip at worst.. This is IN ADDITION to having AQ/AK 35 times and floppint top pair twice.

When would you simply say, enough is enough, and cashout.

MasterLJ 03-24-2007 03:00 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
To answer the first question: You flop 2 pair like 1 in 20 times IIRC, so 2 times in 35 is ahead of the curve.

To answer the rest: Just give up, online poker is not rigged.

fusting4321 03-24-2007 03:02 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
50/50 it either happens or it doesnt

willw9 03-24-2007 03:03 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
[ QUOTE ]
To answer the rest: Just give up, online poker is not rigged.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pshh, you're so naive

kylma 03-24-2007 03:04 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
[ QUOTE ]
To answer the first question: You flop 2 pair like 1 in 20 times IIRC, so 2 times in 35 is ahead of the curve.

To answer the rest: Just give up, online poker is not rigged.

[/ QUOTE ]

I said top pair, not two pair.. Think about it.. 2 times in 35

kylma 03-24-2007 03:05 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
[ QUOTE ]
50/50 it either happens or it doesnt

[/ QUOTE ]

Please go ahead and toss a coin and report back when you tossed tails 18 times out of 20.. not only that, I was more than a coinflip several times

fusting4321 03-24-2007 03:08 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
50/50 it either happens or it doesnt

[/ QUOTE ]

Please go ahead and toss a coin and report back when you tossed tails 18 times out of 20.. not only that, I was more than a coinflip several times

[/ QUOTE ]

sigh........

LionelHutz00 03-24-2007 03:10 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
Just because something unlikely happens doesn't mean that it's rigged. What are the chances that you'll be dealt 5d 4h on one hand, and then 7s Th on the next hand? 1 in 7,033,103. That's extremely unlikely. But just because you were dealt those two hands back to back doesn't mean that online poker is rigged.

BBV: Serious Business

XCEO 03-24-2007 03:14 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
50/50 it either happens or it doesnt

[/ QUOTE ]

Please go ahead and toss a coin and report back when you tossed tails 18 times out of 20.. not only that, I was more than a coinflip several times

[/ QUOTE ]

18/20 tails isn't very likely because the chance on heads increases with every flip that ends up being tails.. you don't have this problem with cards.

kylma 03-24-2007 03:14 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
[ QUOTE ]
Just because something unlikely happens doesn't mean that it's rigged. What are the chances that you'll be dealt 5d 4h on one hand, and then 7s Th on the next hand? 1 in 7,033,103. That's extremely unlikely. But just because you were dealt those two hands back to back doesn't mean that online poker is rigged.

BBV: Serious Business

[/ QUOTE ]

It is not that "Unlikely".. The point you make is out of the context.. You can take any 2 cards and think it weas unlikely to receive the,, But combine these 3:
1) you get top pair with two cards 2 times in 35
2) You lose 18 out of 20 all ins where you were coinflip at worst
3) you lose 10 sng's in a row (assuming "equal skill" this would be 0.7 to the power of 10

All those probabilities combined, it's just amazing

doubLe a tom 03-24-2007 03:15 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
lol OP, Good sample size. That is very standard, and mild variance.

fusting4321 03-24-2007 03:18 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
[ QUOTE ]



3) you lose 10 sng's in a row (assuming "equal skill" this would be 0.7 to the power of 10



[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe we shouldnt be assuming equal skill, no? Hint Hint

NU Star 03-24-2007 03:22 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
[ QUOTE ]
Just because something unlikely happens doesn't mean that it's rigged. What are the chances that you'll be dealt 5d 4h on one hand, and then 7s Th on the next hand? 1 in 7,033,103. That's extremely unlikely. But just because you were dealt those two hands back to back doesn't mean that online poker is rigged.

BBV: Serious Business

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems wrong...unless it has to be those cards in that specific order.

kylma 03-24-2007 03:23 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]



3) you lose 10 sng's in a row (assuming "equal skill" this would be 0.7 to the power of 10



[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe we shouldnt be assuming equal skill, no? Hint Hint

[/ QUOTE ]

You're correct.. My ROI is 16%. so it's not equal skill. I just made it more simple for the sake of simplification

SneakyFerret 03-24-2007 03:25 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
[ QUOTE ]


I said top top, not two pair..

[/ QUOTE ]

OHFreak 03-24-2007 03:53 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
I SAID TOP TOP M'FER

saucyspade19 03-24-2007 03:55 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I said top top, not two pair..

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

a jamie gold reference in a thread about variance, ha, how appropriate.

pokerchap 03-24-2007 04:00 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
let me guess.. full tilt?

AlwaysWrong 03-24-2007 05:32 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
Here's a better question: What are the chances that if I go back and look at my last 10,000 hands I can find some stat that in isolation looks extremely unlikely? I'd go for nearly certain, if I look hard enough.

This thread is either a joke (and not that funny) or OP should never play poker again.

GrandMelon 03-24-2007 05:37 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
[ QUOTE ]
[x] you might suck

[/ QUOTE ]

wait.. fixed my own post

[x] you do suck

Archon_Wing 03-24-2007 06:24 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
Yawn... at least post some graphs.

Hielko 03-24-2007 07:10 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
Today I got dealt the followin hands in a row:

9c Th
Kh 2s
2d 5h
9c 4s
Ah 8h
Ts Td
7c 9c
Qh 7s
Kh 8d
2s 3s

What are the odds of this happening? I'm pretty sure it's almost zero -> online poker is rigged for sure!

benza13 03-24-2007 07:58 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
[ QUOTE ]
Today I got dealt the followin hands in a row:

9c Th
Kh 2s
2d 5h
9c 4s
Ah 8h
Ts Td
7c 9c
Qh 7s
Kh 8d
2s 3s

What are the odds of this happening? I'm pretty sure it's almost zero -> online poker is rigged for sure!

[/ QUOTE ]

Finally the proof I have been looking for has been revealed, time to go withdraw my mobnies and keep them safe.

Xanta 03-24-2007 08:04 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
So today I say a car with the license plate ABTP 357, what are the chances of that?
-Feynman lecture opener

beckAAfan 03-24-2007 08:09 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
poker is rigged...thats why so many can make a living at it..but ty for thinking its rigged and continuosly reloading ur account tytytytytytytty

hasugopher 03-24-2007 10:41 PM

Re: a simple aq/ak riggedness question
 
[ QUOTE ]
Just because something unlikely happens doesn't mean that it's rigged. What are the chances that you'll be dealt 5d 4h on one hand, and then 7s Th on the next hand? 1 in 7,033,104. That's extremely unlikely. But just because you were dealt those two hands back to back doesn't mean that online poker is rigged.

Internet: Serious Business

[/ QUOTE ]


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