A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

6-handed Full Tilt $.5/1. I'm recording a video for a new project of mine, The Road to Robusto (let's hope the name ends up being appropriate). It's a great game and I'm playing A+ poker at this point. Most hands involving me haven't featured a showdown.

Reads: MP is loose and fairly aggressive. The BB is overaggressive and seems to be overapplying some basic 6-max concepts; he plays a lot like I did when I didn't really understand basic poker concepts but was trying to play shorthanded anyway. From what I've seen his raising range isn't horrible (he has raised T8s after a limper and has 3bet JTs vs a somewhat tight raiser in the SB, and bet out on a 234 flop). In the T8s hand he checked it down but bet when he hit a pair of 8's on a JKxx8 board, and his hand was good (the action went limp-call; check-check; check-check; check-bet-call). The limper he isolated was loose and passive and bad (he was the same player he 3bet with JTs later). I've seen him (BB in this hand) put in 3-4 bets preflop a number of times and either fold before showdown or win without a showdown on a fair variety of boards, but I wouldn't call him maniacal. Just somewhat loose and definitely aggressive.

So yeah. Back to the hand. MP limps. I complete in the SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. BB raises. MP calls. I call. If anyone wants to discuss any aspect of preflop play bring it up here, because I generally don't include preflop in playalong hands since it makes the whole thing take a week to develop. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The flop is J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. We're first to act and it's 3-ways to the flop for 6SB. I . . . with the intention of . . . if . . .

Fill in the blanks. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Rob

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

i fold with the intention of going to make a sandwich while i wait for the nxt hand :P

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

i check with the intention of folding to a bet, if checked around I reevaluate on the turn, leaning toward folding if any of the zillion scare cards come out.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

I (personally) check with the intention of folding if it's one back to me.

I tried to put villains on a range of hands, given your reads. I put it into PS:

Board: Js 9d 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
BB: 52.557% 52.14% 00.42% 12793101 102521.00 { 77+, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, KTo+, QJo }
MP: 29.298% 28.88% 00.42% 7086138 102521.00 { 77-55, A7s-A2s, K8s-K5s, Q7s+, J8s, T8s, 98s, ATo-A7o, KTo-K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o }
You: 18.146% 18.15% 00.00% 4452356 0.00 { 4d4h }

So I guess over this range, we have an 18.15% chance (~4.5:1) of either retaining the best hand or improving to the best hand by the river. What this is supposed to tell me I don't know. I just act like I know what I'm talking about sometimes.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

[ QUOTE ]
I (personally) check with the intention of folding if it's one back to me.

I tried to put villains on a range of hands, given your reads. I put it into PS:

Board: Js 9d 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
BB: 52.557% 52.14% 00.42% 12793101 102521.00 { 77+, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, KTo+, QJo }
MP: 29.298% 28.88% 00.42% 7086138 102521.00 { 77-55, A7s-A2s, K8s-K5s, Q7s+, J8s, T8s, 98s, ATo-A7o, KTo-K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o }
You: 18.146% 18.15% 00.00% 4452356 0.00 { 4d4h }

So I guess over this range, we have an 18.15% chance (~4.5:1) of either retaining the best hand or improving to the best hand by the river. What this is supposed to tell me I don't know. I just act like I know what I'm talking about sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there a "famous post" out there that explains how to work equity into your evaluations postflop? I have done well using pot odds and implied odds, but equity remains a mystery for me.

Is this a HEFAP topic? I have that book but haven't really read it yet.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

[ QUOTE ]
I (personally) check with the intention of folding if it's one back to me.

I tried to put villains on a range of hands, given your reads. I put it into PS:

Board: Js 9d 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
BB: 52.557% 52.14% 00.42% 12793101 102521.00 { 77+, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, KTo+, QJo }
MP: 29.298% 28.88% 00.42% 7086138 102521.00 { 77-55, A7s-A2s, K8s-K5s, Q7s+, J8s, T8s, 98s, ATo-A7o, KTo-K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o }
You: 18.146% 18.15% 00.00% 4452356 0.00 { 4d4h }

So I guess over this range, we have an 18.15% chance (~4.5:1) of either retaining the best hand or improving to the best hand by the river. What this is supposed to tell me I don't know. I just act like I know what I'm talking about sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just for general reference, it's important to note that my equity is only that poor when MP's range is actually that narrowly definable. When his handrange is that narrow, he's almost always calling or raising that flop, but when he folds this flop, his handrange is unimportant in equity calculations. Just a thought. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Rob

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

Interesting. It appears that you're in a good position to bet your hand and let BB protect it for you, but your read seems to say that he's not going to raise unless you're behind. You also don't appear to be in a position to get a fold from BB if you c/r a bet from MP.

Open-fold. I'm with the guy that says you should go make a sandwich.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

I check/fold, putting in 3 BB to see river isn't worthwhile. Versus some opponents I would check with the intention of calling if MP folded and check the turn with the hope he checks behind.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

You check obviously to see what the action is behind you. I'm more worried about MP than the BB because this board hits a lot of limping hands and you're in a reverse implied odds situation. If BB makes a continuation bet and MP folds I would peel one and reevaluate on the turn.

p.s. Thinly veiled advertisement is meh.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I (personally) check with the intention of folding if it's one back to me.

I tried to put villains on a range of hands, given your reads. I put it into PS:

Board: Js 9d 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
BB: 52.557% 52.14% 00.42% 12793101 102521.00 { 77+, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, KTo+, QJo }
MP: 29.298% 28.88% 00.42% 7086138 102521.00 { 77-55, A7s-A2s, K8s-K5s, Q7s+, J8s, T8s, 98s, ATo-A7o, KTo-K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o }
You: 18.146% 18.15% 00.00% 4452356 0.00 { 4d4h }

So I guess over this range, we have an 18.15% chance (~4.5:1) of either retaining the best hand or improving to the best hand by the river. What this is supposed to tell me I don't know. I just act like I know what I'm talking about sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there a "famous post" out there that explains how to work equity into your evaluations postflop? I have done well using pot odds and implied odds, but equity remains a mystery for me.

Is this a HEFAP topic? I have that book but haven't really read it yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

here you go

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

[ QUOTE ]
You check obviously to see what the action is behind you. I'm more worried about MP than the BB because this board hits a lot of limping hands and you're in a reverse implied odds situation. If BB makes a continuation bet and MP folds I would peel one and reevaluate on the turn.

p.s. Thinly veiled advertisement is meh.

[/ QUOTE ]

I included the link to Roadtorobusto because I'm going to blog about the entire hand and my thoughts there, so people who want to read ahead can go ahead and do that. Your thoughts are pretty good here WRT the hand, though.

Rob

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

I . . . with the intention of . . . if . . .

check/folding/anyone bets

That board could've hit the limper's hand and the raiser could have us in bad shape with an overpair. Even if the raiser just has overcards, but has a draw of some sort to go with it, it's still only a coinflip with us not controlling the action OOP.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

i think we're ready for the turn, entity.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

I checked, BB bet, MP folded, and I called.

Here’s the reasoning behind my call:

BB is betting with 100% of his hands here. If MP calls, the parlay of MP and BB both having draws that miss will be way too tough for my hand here and I’d muck instantly. Just classic reverse implied odds. However, at this point I’m getting 7:1 with what will be the best hand often vs. a very aggressive player. The board isn’t such that my hand has a whole lot of value — even the weakest hands he’ll hold usually have around 6.5-7 outs and will put me to some sort of test so I don’t want to be building a big pot yet. This is what I consider a defensive check-and-call, and it leaves me option to lots of options on the turn. Depending on the turn, I may bet, I may check-call, I may check-raise, and obviously I may check-fold (I do this more than anything else). Basically, I’m check-calling this flop because I don’t feel that my opponent is going to bet the turn nearly 100% of the time, so often I’ll see a river for 1SB and will get paid off by his Ace and sometimes King-high hands when he misses. Additionally, a good portion of the time I’ll check-call the turn intending to check-fold the river (more about this later), to snap off his Ace high hands.

While I’m not a favorite vs his full range of hands (generally I think I’ve got about 45% equity here head’s up), I’ve got enough equity to see a turn card as long as a) I’m not fully committed to showing down 100% of the time, and b) I feel like he’ll give up often enough on the turn that a showdown will only cost betwen 1 and 3SB rather than 5SB.

The turn is the T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

I'm guessing we'll see a lot of the same as we saw on the flop but who knows, so I'll leave it up as playalong.

Rob

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

[ QUOTE ]


The turn is the T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].



[/ QUOTE ]

Easy bet-fold vs this guy. Do you really want to showdown 2nd worst pair vs his any two? There are better hands out there. I dont like checking because a check makes him bluff with air and we dont want to pay more to chase 2 outs. The only way you get value out of the hand with with a bet.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

[ QUOTE ]
so I'll leave it up as playalong.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://media.movieweb.com/galleries/.../thumbs/p6.jpg

"I'm not happy, Bob. Not happy at all."

No point in betting. Check/call with the intention of bet/folding the river.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

Why would we bet? He either has air, then he'll likly fold, or he has us beat. I doubt he'll call with A2. This is the third overcard to our pair - not the right time to get aggro. OTOH, given the read that he's pretty aggro, I could see him semi-bluff raise here with an oesd. I'm fine with check and MAYBE calling a bet. But I doubt it. C/f is my line.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why would we bet? He either has air, then he'll likly fold, or he has us beat. I doubt he'll call with A2. This is the third overcard to our pair - not the right time to get aggro. OTOH, given the read that he's pretty aggro, I could see him semi-bluff raise here with an oesd. I'm fine with check and MAYBE calling a bet. But I doubt it. C/f is my line.

[/ QUOTE ]


My first response to the turn was to check-fold, but I think betting out here helps us more than hurts us. I would rather be bluffing at the straight or a 10 rather than making another tough choice about my weak pair here. Let him make the choices. This is one of those times where you're playing the player IMO. We don't really like our hand here so ultimately we WANT him to fold. I don't think we want to show down and I don't think this guy ever checks behind unless he's already drawing in which case it will be to 4x more outs than we are.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

I still like the idea of folding the turn, although now that you're heads up against the overagro guy, I suppose our hand has a little more value.

I'm not sure if I like your read that you stand a chance of getting a free card on the turn though. While it would be nice, and most likely let you know you're ahead, I'm not sure if it happens. Going on the read you gave, I'm thinking BB will bet again most of the hands that he bet the flop with. You say he's aggressive and say one time that he didn't bet, he was sitting on ten high, and has taken down a lot of other hands without a showdown. He may value bet ace high (incorrectly here), semi-bluff Qx or diamonds, or potentially bet a smaller pocket pair which is still ahead of 44. Other than possibly Kxs where x is small or smaller suited connectors, 76s/65s, I don't know if we get a free card.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

K, so I checked the turn with the intention of folding. His range that he bets with (I'm not sure if he he bets gutshot+ace high hands like AK, AQ, A8, etc) is pretty far ahead of mine here and I don't think I've got sufficient odds to call the turn given that I'll rarely see him check behind on the river if we make it this far. I'm pretty sure but not positive he'd bet all pairs on the turn. He didn't seem very good and he was playing very aggressively overall so I can't say 100% that he'd bet all paired hands on the turn here but I'd give it a reasonable chance.

So I checked. And he checked.

The river was the 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] giving a 3-flush, 4-straight, and 4 overcards. Board J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Now normally I would valuebet the river when he checks behind on the turn because everyone pays off with Ace high way too often. But here I was puzzled and sat for a bit before making a decision. What do you do?

Rob

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

check/call to give him a chance to bluff at the pot and a free showdown if he's ahead and checks behind.

please comment on Comma's turn suggestions. I found myself agreeing w/him and I would like to hear your thoughts. thanks, bob.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

I would still value bet this, but not expect to get paid that often. He seems like the type that is aggressive when he is actually holding a, albeit sometimes marignal, real hand or draw. I think you can trust a raise means you're beat on this board and if you check he will be too scared to bet anything except a hand that beats you.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

[ QUOTE ]
K, so I checked the turn with the intention of folding. His range that he bets with (I'm not sure if he he bets gutshot+ace high hands like AK, AQ, A8, etc) is pretty far ahead of mine here and I don't think I've got sufficient odds to call the turn given that I'll rarely see him check behind on the river if we make it this far. I'm pretty sure but not positive he'd bet all pairs on the turn. He didn't seem very good and he was playing very aggressively overall so I can't say 100% that he'd bet all paired hands on the turn here but I'd give it a reasonable chance.

So I checked. And he checked.

The river was the 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] giving a 3-flush, 4-straight, and 4 overcards. Board J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Now normally I would valuebet the river when he checks behind on the turn because everyone pays off with Ace high way too often. But here I was puzzled and sat for a bit before making a decision. What do you do?

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the key here is your read. We know he's going to bet with any pair, but also that he didn't like the turn enough to play it when you checked it to him.

Hands like AK, Axs etc. are definitely within his range and he's not likely to fold his pair, so bet-fold is a bad choice (you're not making him fold usually and the range of hands you beat that he'll call or bluff with is small).

Bet-call is out for the same reason. If he's raising you, you're sunk.

The pot is now 4BB. If you check-call you're not winning 1/5th of the time, so check-fold is the play.

Is it really valuebetting when you fire into such a small pot with such a weak hand? 1 bet to get 5 with low pair? No thanks.

I still disagree with the flop call, btw.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

[ QUOTE ]


The pot is now 4BB. If you check-call you're not winning 1/5th of the time, so check-fold is the play.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I check-call I'm getting 5:1 so I need to be good 17% of the time to turn a profit. Given how oddly he played his hand, what do you think checks behind on the turn and bets the river?

Rob

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would still value bet this, but not expect to get paid that often. He seems like the type that is aggressive when he is actually holding a, albeit sometimes marignal, real hand or draw. I think you can trust a raise means you're beat on this board and if you check he will be too scared to bet anything except a hand that beats you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to be ahead 55% of the time I'm called for a bet to have any value. I also have to be confident that I'll never be bluffraised. It's a weird spot because I'm more of a favorite if I bet than if I check-call, but betting here seems like it shows less expectation than check-calling due to my semilimited reads.

Rob

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

I think I'd just call. He'll think his A-high is good often enough. if BB is as aggro as you say, I doubt he'd check a 9 on the turn. He'd bet again hoping you fold your 77 or whatever. Same with a T. He's got K-high.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd just call. He'll think his A-high is good often enough. if BB is as aggro as you say, I doubt he'd check a 9 on the turn. He'd bet again hoping you fold your 77 or whatever. Same with a T. He's got K-high.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a lot more afraid of hands he has with a King than hands he has with an Ace. KQ, KJ, KT, K9, K8, K7 all beat me here. :P

Rob

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

I don't think an "overaggressive" villain who once bet an 8 on a KJxxwhatwasit board would check through any reasonable pair here. Likewise, I don't really assume him to check the turn with a good draw. He might, but I doubt it. If he's rivered the GS, fine, good for him. Villain has Ax though. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

I kinda like betting and calling down vs a raise but folding if MP gets at all involved.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

[ QUOTE ]


The turn is the T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].



[/ QUOTE ]

I like the c/c, c/f line now.

Interesting about the c/c on the flop, though. Is there any hand that you would consider bet/folding vs mp and bet/calling vs BB?

Just curious about that.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

lol bet the river for meta? I don't know, I like check/calling the river.

edit: Yeah, I guess c/f river is ok, I hadn't realized that KQ was a straight, I just saw the low end. I think it's time for bed. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyways, the betting for meta thing was just to avoid letting this guy realize that you called him on the turn with 44. I think that would probably slow him down a bit, which is something that's going to be a little tough to adjust to.

I guess I don't see a reason for him to bet something that you have beat here. The interesting thing is that all lines here are -EV as check/fold will SOMETIMES result in you losing to a bluff. Kinda neat.

Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
 

I hadn't considered that the turned T would make him avoid firing on the turn rather than just avoiding firing the river. I might shoot one more if I were him with AK/AQ in hopes of getting to showdown vs a flush draw or something like that, because checking and folding the river would suck. But... I guess you're assuming he won't fire those hands on the turn. If that's the case, then I like c/f the turn, although, it depends on how much of his range is AK/AQ, etc.

If it's biggish, then bet/folding the turn becomes preferable.

But I guess C/F.

Regardless, thanks for the thread.

RESULTS
 

Making the final board 7d9dTsJc2d. Now there’s very few Ace high hands he can call with and, at the same time, not a whole lot of hands I can put him on. On the turn, I thought AK and AQ were likely since he picked up a gutshot; A8 is possible as well but I’m positive he bets any pair and most diamond draws on the turn, so while the diamond isn’t a scarecard for me he might think it is.

After pausing for a while, I figured he just wouldn’t pay off with AK or AQ often enough for me to bet. So I checked. He paused an equally long time and bet. I paused, thought for a while, and decided that he might have decided to bet Ace high as a bluff on the river…and eventually called. He showed Ad6x and I dragged.

Re: RESULTS
 

You sell yourself short, you paused awhile to check but you insta called his bet. I thought it was pretty hot.

-DeathDonkey