I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

They were wrong when they said it never kills people and that hurt them a lot. But cops tell me that those things aren't going anywhere. What do they care about a few dead people? There would be even more without the gizmo. I have 10,000 shares.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

This post is +EV. Nice job.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

Just bought 10K shares too. Thanks David.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

I cant see where they expect sales to be generated from. I have only done a really quick look-over, but who do you envision will order massive amounts of tasers who hasnt already. Just seems overvalued to me and I cant see where growth is expected to come from.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

Overseas? In any case when the stock was much higher the market envisioned a certain amount of sales. Lawsuits temporarily derailed that. So if they are back on track the stock figures to go up.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

I think tasers have one major problem:

In jurisdictions where the populace either doesn't care, or has no say, re: the police killing people they're trying to subdue, there's no reason to bother with a taser. The cops just use guns because they're safer for the cop.

In places with a more sensitive populace and/or more public oversight of the police & government, the taser's reputation for killing will hurt its adoption regardless of the facts of the matter.

Expect some new low-lethality weapon to appear to get around this (possibly irrational) sensitivity. It's unlikely taser will be the company behind it as their name is now associated with the deaths.

The US military, of course, has learned their lessons in Iraq, and would rather just have a dead villain than one that has to be put in jail where they can cause continued trouble. It's likely most foreign armies have already learned that lesson, or learned it by proxy from us.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/5y/t/tasr

5 year chart ftw. Seems like they really need to find some new planets to sell to if they ever plan on getting back to their old levels.

seems like I missed alot. I figured it was around for a few years, it must have been past its early growth stages but it clearly isnt. Trading at 21 times next years earnings, could be interesting.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

David, you are the way, the truth, and the life.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

The percentage play here is to set a buy stop near 9 and protect yourself immediately (if filled above $9) with a close stop. If it runs, great, otherwise your money is not dead in the meantime-- or at considerable risk.

Players who bought at the recent high ($9.27 on Feb 21) have egg on their faces @ $7.85-- unless they bailed quick on a close stop.

This stock is the kind of stock that tells you the news via the current price. The actual news manifests weeks later.

The chart is in a long downtrend but may be starting to forming a base. A narrowing range ultimately resolves to range expansion; the question is which way-- up or down. It looks 50-50 below $9 to me.

It hit $9+ on 2/21 so maybe all the miserable people above $9 (who are looking to sell) are gone. Maybe not. Likely not.

I like the Sony/teledildonics play mentioned earlier alot better, to tell you the truth. Now there's a 'growth' market.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

Technically speaking this stock could have a one day pop but it's not going past 9.00 too soon without some kind of fundamental product change. ie: like aapl did with ipod.

Good luck with it David. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

DAVE, WHAT ABOUT ESLT? REMOTE CONTROLLED HUNT AND KILL GIZMO?
 

Elbit, Inc. (ESLT) an Israeli provider of defense product products rolled out a prototype last week.

This robot has a cannon, a grenade launcher and machine guns. It can climb stairs and be controlled remotely by a an operator using a video camera. The Israelis plan to use it against Hamas and Hezbollah to reduce the hand to hand combat losses.

I figure the US dept of defense will order ten thousand dozen of these babies, not to mention local police departments around the civilized world.

Re: DAVE, WHAT ABOUT ESLT? REMOTE CONTROLLED HUNT AND KILL GIZMO?
 

Isn't there a legislator in Texas trying to make new laws about the ability to carry Taser products? This is going to be a trend across the US I'm sure and a lot of the big city areas already can not use them for concealed carry but only self defense in ones home. This to me says buy a gun and make sure anyone who breaks into your home is shot to death and not tasered so that he becomes agitated. Being on the streets of Chicago these products would be great for business men and women but a large majority of criminals would probably carry them or a Gun if they thought someone would be armed with one. I love the idea of Taser products and wanted one for myself but the things you have to go through to get one you might as well buy a gun. I agree the cops will have them but isn't that a limited market?

I don't know it's an interesting stock and at an affordable price but I would like to see more support for these products instead of all the negative press they get.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

It has to bust out over $9

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

[ QUOTE ]
It has to bust out over $9

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish poker was that easy. I'm in the wrong business.

Re: DAVE, WHAT ABOUT ESLT? REMOTE CONTROLLED HUNT AND KILL GIZMO?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Elbit, Inc. (ESLT) an Israeli provider of defense product products rolled out a prototype last week.

This robot has a cannon, a grenade launcher and machine guns. It can climb stairs and be controlled remotely by a an operator using a video camera. The Israelis plan to use it against Hamas and Hezbollah to reduce the hand to hand combat losses.

I figure the US dept of defense will order ten thousand dozen of these babies, not to mention local police departments around the civilized world.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often do you see local police in the civilized world with granade launchers and machine guns?

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

In for 2000 shares @ $7.90

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

Tried to tell you guys this wasn't going anywere soon.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

I think that any cop that wants to use a TASR should have to test it out on himself first.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

guys, buying shares just based of one tip is really dangerous. If you want to fine, but it should be because of the tip, and then your own research, which indicated the company was undervalued. If you dont do your research its tough to know when to get out and what news will affect the company.

found link to discussion on why doing your own research is important. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...e=3#Post9523531

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

After 9-11 I put all my money into shares of finger nail clippers. This is how I made my 5 mil.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

a question for david:

david- tasers are widely used by police and state security agencies to torture people throughout the world. as an intelligent man you no doubt know this (at least i sincerely hope you do). does this not bother you?

FWIW: a quick amnesty international search unveiled the following. these are about the USA. Suffice to say, they are used much much more widely in the 2nd and 3rd world

http://web.amnesty.org/wire/November2004/Tasers

http://web.amnesty.org/wire/July2005/Tasers

http://web.amnesty.org/library/Index/ENGAMR510792006

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

Sorry about my last post David.

TASR seems good. I have a few other related stocks to throw into this thread...

EML is one. GEO is another one. CXW, AH, and UUU are three others that I would look into. I own none of them but I think you all will be pleased when you take a look.

I have an idea for a thread you could post, Mr. Sklansky. My sister and I watched you on TV playing No-Limit Hold 'em.

We started watching when you were one of the last three players left. I can't remember which Tourney it was as I am not the biggest TV Poker fan. I think Johnny Chan was one of the players. The other one was well-known also. I am thinking Phil Ivey but that doesn't sound right.

So my sister called me up and said "Dan, your man Sklansky is on TV playing a Tournament and he's one of the last three players."

I tuned in and it was quite a show. I know it is edited for entertainment value but it was a great game. They busted you out but they were teaming up against you. My sister was complaining that they were being mean to you, LOL! I said that it is a common practice near the end of tournaments and it was not collusion in a technical sense.

She said it was wrong and I disagreed. I told her that it meant they were scared of you, LOL! When it ended, I was stunned and I got the cell phone beep from my sister saying "OH MY GOD! Did YOU @$%#^&* SEE THAT!!!" I did and since I can;t remember what it was I would like to hear you post some info about the Tournaments you have done.

I would like to add that you reacted with extraordinary class, shaking their hands after something like that and just watching offstage in a calm manner. Classic.

Could you start a thread on something like that?

Fierce Lion7 out.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It has to bust out over $9

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish poker was that easy. I'm in the wrong business.

[/ QUOTE ]

David, I love you and appreciate the depth of thought you constantly bring to poker discussions. But you really should not own any individual stocks. I haven't seen anything from you that indicates an understanding of how stocks are valued. As an investor you are akin to a newbie poker player who thinks the key to poker is a pattern mapper.

When I wanted to learn how to play poker well, I read everything Sklansky wrote. He taught me the essential theorem of poker, from which everything else followed.

When I wanted to learn how to be a good investor, I read everything that Buffett and his mentor Ben Graham wrote. They taught me the essential theory of value, from which everything else followed.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It has to bust out over $9

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish poker was that easy. I'm in the wrong business.

[/ QUOTE ]

David, I love you and appreciate the depth of thought you constantly bring to poker discussions. But you really should not own any individual stocks. I haven't seen anything from you that indicates an understanding of how stocks are valued. As an investor you are akin to a newbie poker player who thinks the key to poker is a pattern mapper.

When I wanted to learn how to play poker well, I read everything Sklansky wrote. He taught me the essential theorem of poker, from which everything else followed.

When I wanted to learn how to be a good investor, I read everything that Buffett and his mentor Ben Graham wrote. They taught me the essential theory of value, from which everything else followed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then why are you talking about investing based on price movements?

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

[ QUOTE ]
david- tasers are widely used by police and state security agencies to torture people throughout the world. as an intelligent man you no doubt know this (at least i sincerely hope you do). does this not bother you?

[/ QUOTE ]

What does this have to do with making money off the stock?

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

[ QUOTE ]
david- tasers are widely used by police and state security agencies to torture people throughout the world.
....a quick amnesty international ...

[/ QUOTE ]
OK what’ the point you are trying to make? Amnesty International has lost all credibility with the comparison of Guantanamo Bay to a Gulag. They are a crack head org.
I’ll invest in TASR, thanks for helping me decide!

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

[ QUOTE ]


Then why are you talking about investing based on price movements?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not. Why are you investing in a company with shady management?

Actually, my reply is a little snippy, let me apologize and start over.

You should invest in a company because you think the price you are paying today is substantially less than it's eventual value. From your original post I don't see the case you are trying to make here. Unpopular companies can either be bargains or disasters, do you have enough information about TASR to make you confident it's a bargain?

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

I have a much better set of ideas than buying any stock, the analogy of stock picking resembling raked bingo poker comes to mind.

I have been brainstorming this week partly attributed to inspiration extracted from this 2+2 forum (thanks, David et al).

The conclusion I've come to is that not only is the internet in its infancy, but what is overlooked are a slew of concepts that could overthrow the current paradigm(s)--I am purposely leaving out the details for now.

Yes, it sounds like I'm a tease, but I sincerely state that I've come up with about 20-30 ideas recently (48-72 hours) that I don't see implemented anywhere on the net today.

They are not technical innovations, just conceptual ones.
They co-opt grey matter, not software...

My latest question today while planning my first internet startup is:

Are pokersites and/or cash intermediaries allowed to offer interest or other forms of incentive such as 'points' or equity as a function of accrued credit/time?

This would create a float for the corporation, is it somehow prohibited by some Bank Act(s) in North America?
What about other jurisdictions such as Antigua for US citizens?

Also, the first person I'd want to do business with is Barry Greenstein. What a mensch he is--what a great role model!

Hi Barry!

I would also strive to emulate Buffett and Gates.
Do you see why the velocity of money is important to our civilization?

P.S. I don't really need financing, and I wouldn't need to approach the super rich relatives I've alluded to earlier.

I believe other startups and smaller parties are more suitable partners. Personality and fit count. Also there are legal practicalities.

I composed this message in the hopes of inspiring you all, and to express my genuine gratitude.

Thank you.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

[ QUOTE ]
You should invest in a company because you think the price you are paying today is substantially less than it's eventual value.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Unpopular companies can either be bargains or disasters

[/ QUOTE ]

What brilliant revelations! A guy like Sklansky shouldn't dare dabble in the market with sharks like you out there. He's gonna get eaten for breakfast.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

[ QUOTE ]


Then why are you talking about investing based on price movements?

[/ QUOTE ]

An excellent [censored] question.

The idea that a stock is good, but can't be purchased until the price is almost 20% higher is very irrational.

The question here is what kind of future prospects TASR has. I don't like them personally, but there's no way in hell I'd give up 20% if I did.

That said, TASR is a company with a 400m market cap, 12m of net assets, that lost 4m last year and made 1m the year before. Even if you go back 2 years to the big earnings year, the company is priced at 20x those earnings, which I would rate as "highly speculative" even if those were today's earnings. Managment is, uh, unpopular with the shareholders. Insider ownership is low. The only positive sign I see is that insiders are aquiring shares rather than dumping them.

What is it the kids say these days? Oh yeah. Meh.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

DC is a value investor, and probably a much much more astutue investor than yourself, so you really shouldnt be mocking him.

Anyone (David) have a chance to go over the latest annual report yet? Heres the brief version. That lawsuit settlement of 17 million put them in the red for the year by 4 million

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think that any cop that wants to use a TASR should have to test it out on himself first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats already a fairly standard practice in most agencies, at least here in Florida.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

not really ethical shares.

But you don't care, right?
or don't understand why?

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

[ QUOTE ]
guys, buying shares just based of one tip is really dangerous. If you want to fine, but it should be because of the tip, and then your own research, which indicated the company was undervalued. If you dont do your research its tough to know when to get out and what news will affect the company.

found link to discussion on why doing your own research is important. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...e=3#Post9523531

[/ QUOTE ]

Does it change your opinion of the situation if I said I didn't think of it as betting on the stock, but that I was betting on David? I think it's clear that David is +EV in his stock picks. So as long as I'm confident that he's telling the truth on these boards about his picks (which I am) and that there isn't some sort of mechanism at work in his psyche biasing him to favor posting his -EV picks how is betting on David a bad bet? The latter bias is possible I suppose, but I think unlikely given that this type of cognitive would in a sense be making accurate market predictions (how great would that be if you were his psychiatrist!).

Just curious, I'm not really that well versed in stock trading, but what's wrong with shadowing the moves of someone that you're certain is much better than you?

--- gah, didn't read your post carefully until the view before submit. I guess David doesn't come post to tell you to get out does he? Well, I'm still curious about the general question I'm asking so I'll leave it.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

I just bought 10,000 shares of Enron stock.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's clear that David is +EV in his stock picks. ...
Just curious, I'm not really that well versed in stock trading, but what's wrong with shadowing the moves of someone that you're certain is much better than you?


[/ QUOTE ]

What makes you think David is +EV in the stock market? He's the worlds leading poker authority, not stock market authority. Warren Buffett is a very smart guy, would you take poker advice from him?

Shadowing better investors has it's problems. Typically you don't know their full portfolio, and what picks they are speculative minor investments, and which ones are big, important bets they feel very strongly about. You are unlikely to get real time updates when they realize they've made a mistake. Lastly, you may think someone is +EV without having any real data to back it up, they might actually be -EV.

If you can't evaluate how smart their picks through a rational process, you are just guessing. You should be a passive investor and own only mutual funds.

I often read public filings of great investors (guys with 20 year plus track records of beating the market) to get ideas. Guys like Seth Klarman, Buffett, etc. But I individually evaluate each of their positions in detail (read their SEC filings, etc). If I can't get it, I don't buy it. I have missed out on some good ideas I couldn't understand, but I also missed many stinkers. If you want to be an active investor you have to understand what you are investing in.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should invest in a company because you think the price you are paying today is substantially less than it's eventual value.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Unpopular companies can either be bargains or disasters

[/ QUOTE ]

What brilliant revelations! A guy like Sklansky shouldn't dare dabble in the market with sharks like you out there. He's gonna get eaten for breakfast.

[/ QUOTE ]

If David Sklansky told you to raised 23o UTG every time in a tough limit game without explanation, would you just accept it? Or would you demand some logical explanation for why this is a +EV play in those games?

David has not give any indication he understands TASR's true value, essentially he's buying because he thinks it's out of favor. Since you quoted it, you understand that buying unpopularity alone is a poor strategy, but does David?

No-one on this thread has posted any logical analysis on what TASR's true value is. And then there is the fact that TASR's management has fudged their financials before, while selling huge amounts of stock before the stock price collapsed. I.e if TASR was a poker player, you'd be a fool to stake it. If you don't know it's real value, and you can't trust it's management, why would you recommend it?

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

LOL @ anybody taking stock advice from David Sklansky.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

"David has not give any indication he understands TASR's true value, essentially he's buying because he thinks it's out of favor. Since you quoted it, you understand that buying unpopularity alone is a poor strategy, but does David?"

Huh? My post didn't claim that TASR might be a good buy because it was out of favor, but rather because the REASON it appeared to be out of favor (it kills people) was not as relevant, in my opinion (partly based on converstions with cops), as most people thought. All other aspects of the company, I assumed to be properly evaluated by the market.

This general method of picking stocks is more art than science but it firmly applies my Fundamental Theorem of Investing (Before you buy or sell you should be able to explain why people are willing to take the other side and why you think they are wrong) in conjunction with the Efficient Market Hypothesis (thus allowing you to be ignorant of all the other factors, though it would be better if you weren't.)

I understand that picking stocks this way bugs those who have studied the subject for years in the same way that some successful sports bettors who couldn't tell you the name of one player bug sports fanatics who can't beat their bookie. On the other hand there are plenty of pro stock picker who acknowledge that at least some of their picks use similar methods and are thus quick to ask their daughter the name of the new shoe company she is raving about.

Re: I Think It Might Be Time To Buy TASR
 

[ QUOTE ]
As an investor you are akin to a newbie poker player who thinks the key to poker is a pattern mapper.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf i thought it was about pattern mapping.