WSEX Last Longer Lines are Up!
 

MELINDA DOOLITTLE -200
LAKISHA JONES +150


CHRIS SLIGH -115
CHRIS RICHARDSON -115

BLAKE LEWIS -130
JORDIN SPARKS EVEN

STEPHANIE EDWARDS -150
GINA GLOCKSEN +115

BRANDON ROGERS -130
HALEY SCARNATO EVEN

PHIL STACEY -110
SANJAYA MALAKAR -120


Does anyone see any overwhelming value in any of these? I haven't really analyized them yet, but i figured it could start a good discussion.

Re: WSEX Last Longer Lines are Up!
 

I don't see any giant value. If I had to pick sides:

I'd bet on:

1. Sligh
2. Lewis
3. Glockson
4. Rogers
5. Sanjaya

But I don't see anything totally out of whack. Brandon is probably the best bet, Haley is a sitting duck.

Re: WSEX Last Longer Lines are Up!
 

I won't put my money where my mouth is, but I like the Sligh prop because of his background and the chance that this becomes political, like I said in the other thread.

Re: WSEX Last Longer Lines are Up!
 

My picks:

DOOLITTLE

SLIGH

BLAKE

STEPHANIE

BRANDON

STACY

BOOK IT!

Re: WSEX Last Longer Lines are Up!
 

Gina looks like the best value in that list of props.

Re: WSEX Last Longer Lines are Up!
 

Doolittle is no good at -200. I think the fair odds are probably -160ish. I'd rather take her to win at +138 (which is also a bad bet).

Here are my plays:

Brandon - 1.3u to win 1u
Phil - 1.1u to win 1u

I like Sligh and Glocksen, but I'm holding off on those for now.

Re: WSEX Last Longer Lines are Up!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Gina looks like the best value in that list of props.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gina was the 3rd highest vote getter overall this week so there is a little value there and I like sligh over richardson

Re: WSEX Last Longer Lines are Up!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Gina looks like the best value in that list of props.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gina was the 3rd highest vote getter overall this week so there is a little value there and I like sligh over richardson

[/ QUOTE ]

Did they say this last night, or are you just assuming DI was THAT accurate?

Re: WSEX Last Longer Lines are Up!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Gina looks like the best value in that list of props.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gina was the 3rd highest vote getter overall this week so there is a little value there and I like sligh over richardson

[/ QUOTE ]

Did they say this last night, or are you just assuming DI was THAT accurate?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think they said that, but Gina was a <u>solid</u> 3rd on DI most of the night. She is also alone in her field. Stephanie will probably be eaten alive by Lakisha and Melissa. I don't see how Stephanie could possibly do better than she already has (she has done really really well singing but hasn't gotten out of the big girls' shadow).

Re: WSEX Last Longer Lines are Up!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Gina looks like the best value in that list of props.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gina was the 3rd highest vote getter overall this week so there is a little value there and I like sligh over richardson

[/ QUOTE ]

Did they say this last night, or are you just assuming DI was THAT accurate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ive found 2 places where "official" results are posted they differ slightly every week so I dont know if either can be trusted but they both had melinda lakisha gina.

Re: WSEX Last Longer Lines are Up!
 

[ QUOTE ]

Ive found 2 places where "official" results are posted they differ slightly every week so I dont know if either can be trusted but they both had melinda lakisha gina.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to share these sources?

Re: WSEX Last Longer Lines are Up!
 

Blake over Jordin looks like some good value. I think Stephanie and Jordin are going to be early casualties of the Melinda/Lakisha juggernaut that will suck up a lot of the female/black vote.

Re: WSEX Last Longer Lines are Up!
 

Betcris/Bookmaker has some other good match ups too.

Lakisha -220
Blake +180

Blake -140
Sligh +110

Jordin Sparks Ev
Chris R -130

Stacey -130
Makakar Ev

Sligh -175
Richardson +120

Edwards -120
Jordin -110

Also they got who will be eliminated next and they have Sanjaya at 4.5 -1 which is pretty good odds

Re: WSEX Last Longer Lines are Up!
 

[ QUOTE ]
STEPHANIE EDWARDS -150
GINA GLOCKSEN +115

[/ QUOTE ]

i LOVE gina @ +115

is there a max on these props? (not that i have any more funds there, but could probably get some there if it is worth the time). i won't do it for $50

Re: WSEX Last Longer Lines are Up!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Gina looks like the best value in that list of props.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gina was the 3rd highest vote getter overall this week so there is a little value there and I like sligh over richardson

[/ QUOTE ]

Did they say this last night, or are you just assuming DI was THAT accurate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ive found 2 places where "official" results are posted they differ slightly every week so I dont know if either can be trusted but they both had melinda lakisha gina.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the higher up you go the more accurate DI probably is. i.e Doolittle recieved most votes followed by Lakisa. Toword the bottom it is anyones guess.

It sshould continue to get more accurate a the season progresess, much as it did last year. There are however a couple of contetants it never seems to accurately get a picture of their votes. Last year it always seemed to have Elliot and Kat listed with less votes than they probably actually were getting. This was do to the fact that they were probably recieving a lot of votes from the west coast. DI users seems to be heavily skewed to thee south and east. This year it seems like DI may be rating Jordan and Phil lower than they actually are.

Re: WSEX Last Longer Lines are Up!
 

DI was 75% accurate, and it could be argued 100% within the MOE.

DI will be an awesome tool at T10 and onward. for now, it is mostly good for predicting who is safe and who for SURE is gone. i.e. extremes.

Re: WSEX Last Longer Lines are Up!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
STEPHANIE EDWARDS -150
GINA GLOCKSEN +115

[/ QUOTE ]

i LOVE gina @ +115

is there a max on these props? (not that i have any more funds there, but could probably get some there if it is worth the time). i won't do it for $50

[/ QUOTE ]

I just bet on Gina and the max bet it listed was $300.