Are we calling down too much?
 

Yesterday I made this poll which was probably stupid. Since it generated very little interest.

I went to great lenghts to ask a simple question. What if the reason that we're not crushing these microlimit games is not that fold too much but instead that we call down too much?

I really like Ed Miller's classic post but it was written in the golden era of online poker and the game has become tougher. That combined with the opponent denigrating attitude coming from SSHE could lead to trouble.

During last month I've chosen the calldown line with KK 17 times and I have lost the pot 13 times and only won 4 times. I've won 19BB and lost 26BB. The 4 times that I won I chose the calldown line for no good reason (being the weak-tight nit that I am). I know this is really small sample size and I'm being result oriented here. But I challenge you to look your HHs to find a standard calldown hand (AA,KK,QQ) that you actually won, post it here and prove me wrong.

I think that 95% of the time when we choose to call down with a hand like KK we are drawing to two outs or drawing dead. So we're drawing to something like 1.25 outs and we never have the odds to call. An exception here might be against a big bluffer but I haven't found one during my poker career. I have no experience in 6-max games or higher level games like $1/$2 or $2/$4. Maybe you can find more bluffers there.

Also I'd like to know if there's some metagame value in calling down and that's the reason why we always do it. Will opponents start to play differently against us if we start to fold these hands?

I hope this will generate some discussion. I know I should stop trying to come up with something "significant" because I'm not a good poker player and I'm even worse as a writer. So it's like a son trying to teach his father how to f**k.

Finally, does this look awful to you?:

Hand 2

Villain unknown. Hero has played only 15 hands with him. Probably a somewhat tight player.

Ultimate Bet
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25./$0.5
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 3-bets</font>, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero caps</font>, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (13.4SB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 raises</font>, Button folds, Hero calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8.7BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 bets</font>, Hero folds.


Hand 3

Villain is 21/15/2 60 hands

Ultimate Bet
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.05./$0.1
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises</font>, 4 folds, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 caps</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (13.4SB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9.7BB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, CO folds, Hero folds.


Hand 4

Villain is totally unknown.

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.15/$0.3
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7SB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5BB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises</font>, Hero folds.

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

TJO,

Ed Miller has gone on the record to say that his advice has been taken too far. He wrote it at a time when the people of the forums were itching to find excuses to fold top pair, and where making big folds with big hands was a badge of honor on the forums. His post completely turned the tide. Now, I'd say that as a forum, yes, we call down too much. But only a little bit. Usually.

That said,

Hand 4 is a horrible, horrible fold. Hand 3 is marginal, but I lean call down. Hand 2 looks like a best fold of the bunch.

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

If I remember later, I'll dig up a hand or two where I thought my hand was too good to fold, but I didn't think I was ahead often enough to raise, so I called down and won.

Against some tighter Villains, I have no problem folding KK or another big pair if I know they'll only play back with a hand that beats an overpair. But in general though, folding overpairs at the first sign of resistance isn't going to be profitable forever. You'll eventually find more Villains later who will semi-bluff more or who have weaker hands than yours and think they are value betting and you may end up folding more winners. Also, in your +19BB/-26BB numbers, are the winning numbers from the pots you've won and the losing numbers are the bets you've lost after you decided to call down?

For your posted hands, in Hand 2, I think the fold is fine. Hand 3, I may call down since I'd expect a Q to check/raise. Hand 4, I call down.

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

Donking is the new check-raise, and I'm not joking.

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, in your +19BB/-26BB numbers, are the winning numbers from the pots you've won and the losing numbers are the bets you've lost after you decided to call down?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes losing numbers are from the bets I've lost after I decided to call down. Usually it costs 2BB to call down. So 13 times 2BB.

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

Are we? Yes, I think so. All those cases where QQ/KK flop an Axx board are very often correct folds. Hand 4 is bad, though.

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

What's with the we in this post? My girlfriend doesn't think I spend enough time with her. Does that mean we play too much poker?

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Donking is the new check-raise, and I'm not joking.

[/ QUOTE ]Isn't this largely because your average 2+2er is likely to raise a donk bet in a spot such as this if he/she lead pf and on the flop. This lets the donk-er get in an extra bet in by donk/3betting the turn. The effect is the same as the c/r since the hero will often go c/c mode after the turn 3bet, the only real difference being that the play sacrifices the FE inherent to a c/r, but picks up an extra BB on the turn.

Or do they just do it because they're donks [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img].

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

Hand 4 I agree we are getting odds to call, 8-1 and we are 4.75-1 to improve to a better 2 pair or set (8 outs, 6 non-villain 2-pair cards and 2 K's), discounted b/c villain could have a set or str8 here. Do we call the river UI? I think we should fold, it's a very rare micros villain who is turn-raising a PFR and flop-betting hero with &lt; 2 pair. Maybe 99, but I don't think many .15-.30's make that play. We'd be getting 10-1 but I don't think we are good that often. But I probably call down in the heat of the moment anyway.

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

Everything in poker is situational, there isn't one rule for any hand than can be used in every situation. Big pairs with lots of callers loose their chances of winning.

I also think he still has a decent point, I looked in poker tracker and I have had KK 8 times and won 75 percent with them. I have had KQ offsuit 27 times and won only 25 percent with it. Half the reason for that is I played them like a donk and the other is a bit of bad luck but over time the stats will even out.

I see you point about having a big pocket pair, they can be over taken by hands that improve after the flop, this is why we raise it up as much as possible to chase everyone out. If are raises don't accomplish this then we have to be careful.

I say keep the faith with the cowboys (KK) and they will reward you in the end. I also say if its a board with flushes and straights then its okay to fold em.

I wonder what the statistical difference is on winning with a pair of aces over kings.

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

Few days ago KK finally stopped being a losing hand for me after I won a couple of big pots with it. But had I found a few folds here and there, I it would look even better. And I don't think I'm being result oriented here. There's no point pissing away 2BB when you have a very strong feeling that the opponent has you beat. I think that we (as a forum) might have gone beyond folding too much and started to call down little too much. It's nice to see MrWookie and Fretelöo agreeing with me on this one.

Maybe it was stupid of me to voice this kind of concern. It's probably better to call down a little too much than to fold little too much. Maybe if I had asked "Am I calling down too much?" I would've gotten more answers and more discussion. Who knows? and more importantly who cares? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

All I know is that it will take some time before the ASS brand on my forehead wears off. But I don't mind. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

(And I will not be posting any results on my poll thread because I don't want to bump that crap. I think you'll see the votes by midnight.)

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

This thread is timely for me - there's a balance to be found between pay-off-wizard and fold-monkey but I can't hit it.

I definitely need to have a break and review my game because I'm on borderline tilt. I see so much advice, some conflicting, I need to read and think more, and definitely play less, cos I'm pumping out the hands hoping something will click but it's not happening.

I'm playing a profitable game at 25/50c but I'm spewing like nobody's business at 50/1. I should probably multi at 25/50 but I'm trying to improve not just make bigger tiny monies.

When I think I've made a bad play or failed to see something obvious I can't describe the feeling - maybe you know it already - but it's putting me off playing.

Here's a hand from tonite's session. I think it's correct to call it down but I'm spraying chips all over paradise with this line, over and over again.

No read on villain.

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (5 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

holy crap.....

hand 2 call down.

hand 3 raise turn.

hand 4 3bet turn.

and no, 'we' are still folding way too much.

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm playing a profitable game at 25/50c but I'm spewing like nobody's business at 50/1. I should probably multi at 25/50 but I'm trying to improve not just make bigger tiny monies.

[/ QUOTE ]I have the same problem when moving up in limits. I want to prove myself that I'm not playing scared and that's why I end up betting and raising everything and that leads to tilting.

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

it doesn't really sound like you are appling a range to your opponent's play

folding too often will get you into big trouble against someone who might not be watching (too much) porn while playing

HAND 1

looks like a fold

FWIW ... you just folded to my pocket Eight (it's easy to bluff this against a TAG who caps preflop and will bet fold the flop)

HAND 2

villain's play looks retarded ... totally trying to move you off a hand (the flop also looks like you could be free carding AKs and he doesn't want you to take a free card ... also, this guy could even be bet.fold aces)

I'll say it's 50/50 raise/calldown ... if the guy will fold a worse hand raising isn't a good option (unless he'll fold a better hand)

HAND 5
easy fold if you know the player ... but folding against an unknown in a game full of complete retards is a no-no

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

I appreciate your comments Point Blank. There's lot more metagame stuff happening at little higher limits that I don't know much about. So it looks like it's better that I just keep calling down most of these hands because the higher I move in limits the better the results will be. Because there will be more bluffing etc. Maybe against some predictable players at my limits I can make a few "big laydowns".

Most of these hands were against unknown villains so it was very hard to put them on any kind of range. I try very hard to put opponents on ranges and I have made lots of silly pokerstove calculations to learn what different hand ranges look like and how my hand compares to them. I still can't claim that I'm any good at it. But I'm working hard to improve.

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

This whole call the river/fold the river argument seems to be getting over complicated.

Surely the point of what we do when we analyse each individual river decision is to identify where we made mistakes from an EV perspective.

If you can apply a range to a villain's holdings then you can assess quantifiably whether your call/fold decision is correct.

Give villain a range, calculate the EV based on that range, and then make a decision accordingly. This is all part of the skill we are trying to learn.

As we get better we are able to narrow down villain's range - but the point is apply a range, come up with a number and stick with it.

For instance there was a hand on here earlier where the Hero was faced with a call on the river after one villain had raised and then two other villains called on a very drawy board with a huge pot. A few people suggested calling as the pot was laying like 28:1

Even if you put a genourous range on each of their holdings and think you beat 30% of each villain's range (which I thought was generous anyway) - to beat ALL 3 to take the pot would require 0.3*0.3*0.3 = 3.3% chance we are good. Which is an -ve EV call in that case.

Applying 'rules of thumb' like "Call when the pot is huge" or "Fld when the pot is small" is too simplistic. Every decision should factor in:

The size of the pot AND
The likely range of the villain.

If the number you come up with is +EV - Call if not then fold.

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

THinking about this thread while playing last night, I noted two hands where the Donk bet, and I knew with near metaphysical certitude that he had what he was representing..I knew beyond all doubt that I was beaten, called, and of course, lost.

I know that the Sklansky theory is that the biggest mistake you can make is to fold incorrectly on the river, since it costs so much when you fold wrong, and you save so little when you call wrong.

But still, when does this become a leak, if ever?

Todd


Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 4 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4SB, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2BB, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, SB calls.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5BB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>...Hero?


---------------

The table was VERY tight, with almost every PFR being folded around. In response, I loosened up my PFR requirements a bit.

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4.5SB, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3.25BB, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, Hero?

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

Hand One: You need to be good 17% of the time to call profitably and I think that for an unknown with no read at least some percentage of the time this is a bluff/A9/9x. What percentage depends on your reads

Hand Two: Same again.

My point about the range issue and the 'rules' about calling for one bet is - say you could tell with near perfect certainty that in a 50BB pot that you were beat (~99.9%) would you call the monster pot?

Obv as we get better at applying ranges we can narrow holdings and get a more robust estimate of the EV of the call, but the decision should be based on our reads, the action and the pot size rather thsan a rule that you have to call for one bet.

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This whole call the river/fold the river argument seems to be getting over complicated.

[/ QUOTE ]Nice post seano but you've misundestood the situation a little. I'm wasn't talking about river calls/folds. I was talking about taking the calldown line from the flop or turn onwards that usually costs us 2BB. Maybe it's also known as the WA/WB line.

[ QUOTE ]
Surely the point of what we do when we analyse each individual river decision is to identify where we made mistakes from an EV perspective.

[/ QUOTE ]That's a good point. My approach was "I couldn't find any damn winning hands on my PT so why the [censored] am I calling all these hands down?". So it was a n00bish results oriented approach.

[ QUOTE ]
If you can apply a range to a villain's holdings then you can assess quantifiably whether your call/fold decision is correct.

Give villain a range, calculate the EV based on that range, and then make a decision accordingly. This is all part of the skill we are trying to learn.

[/ QUOTE ]This is hard to do against an unknown. Of course against a known tight/passive player it is easier to find a fold than against a maniac.

[ QUOTE ]
Applying 'rules of thumb' like "Call when the pot is huge" or "Fld when the pot is small" is too simplistic. Every decision should factor in:

The size of the pot AND
The likely range of the villain.

If the number you come up with is +EV - Call if not then fold.

[/ QUOTE ]That's just the problem. I think some of us (including me) are not looking enough at these factors and are not trying hard enough to put the villain on any kind of range. In a tough spot when we find ourselves lost facing a sudden donk/raise and we choose the easy path and just call down. It hurts to fold a hand but it also hurts to think that you've just folded to a bluff.

I don't want to become the official spokesman for weak/tight play and I think there's some metagame value in calling down. But at lower levels this metagame value is not very big. We're usually playing ABC123 poker and our opponents are not doing any fancy plays either. So there's also one more factor that we have to consider: our table image. If we are known to c-bet our whiffed overcards all the way to showdown all the time, some of our opponents will pick up on that and might raise us when they hit a pair of deuces on the turn. If we start to fold always when we're facing sudden aggression, our opponents will pick up on that too and they'll start to bluff more against us.

My guess is that ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S bluffs quite a lot and plays very aggressively and that way he induces more bluffs from his opponents which makes calling down profitable for him. That's probably true with Point Blank also. I on the other hand play more weak/tight (16.8/8.4/1.3) so when I'm betting I usually have a hand. So maybe if I start to play more aggressively the "problem" will partly correct itself and calling down becomes more profitable.

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I on the other hand play more weak/tight (16.8/8.4/1.3) so when I'm betting I usually have a hand. So maybe if I start to play more aggressively the "problem" will partly correct itself and calling down becomes more profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, because no one at 25c/50c notices how you play. You call down because there's a multitude of really bad players out there who DO try to bluff you or wo severely overplay TP or who do all sorts of other screwy plays that try to get you to fold.

That doesn't mean that there aren't cases where your OP is clearly no good and you can fold - even on the flop.

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If we start to fold always when we're facing sudden aggression, our opponents will pick up on that too and they'll start to bluff more against us.

[/ QUOTE ]

I appreciate there is a metagame argument to be made for calling those big pots even if you are 'sure' that it is the incorrect decision.

To play devils advocate though you could take the line of thinking that if by making those folds you open yourself up to bluff attacks from other players then that is additional information that then enters in to your decision making for future hands and allows you to make more calls.

At the end of the day this is an informational strategy and I for certain do not have the ability to make these calculations off the top of my head in the heat of battle (yet [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]) but ideally I would like to be in that situation where I am making these decisions - and thinking through hands like this helps us to do that.

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

the best piece of advice i have been given so far is " dont bluff". Yes, bet out if u have 2 overcards, yes bet if you have Ace high, but have a flush draw, these are semi bluffs, but trying to knock 1, 2 or more ppl off their hand by betting with 72o is pointless. Another piece of advice i have been given is, " at micro limits, ppl bluff a lot less than you think". I think this is very true and something to keep in your mind. Yes, you may come across the odd player who likes to bluff on scare cards, or a maniac who will bet all the way with nothing, but in general if someone donks, or bets, they have the best hand ( or thinks they have the best hand, which i guess isnt quite the same thing). If someone check/calls the flop, and then raises the turn on a safe card, then quite often, he has a monster hand

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
the best piece of advice i have been given so far is " dont bluff". Yes, bet out if u have 2 overcards, yes bet if you have Ace high, but have a flush draw, these are semi bluffs, but trying to knock 1, 2 or more ppl off their hand by betting with 72o is pointless. Another piece of advice i have been given is, " at micro limits, ppl bluff a lot less than you think". I think this is very true and something to keep in your mind. Yes, you may come across the odd player who likes to bluff on scare cards, or a maniac who will bet all the way with nothing, but in general if someone donks, or bets, they have the best hand ( or thinks they have the best hand, which i guess isnt quite the same thing). If someone check/calls the flop, and then raises the turn on a safe card, then quite often, he has a monster hand

[/ QUOTE ]That's exactly my point for calling down less.

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You call down because there's a multitude of really bad players out there who DO try to bluff you or wo severely overplay TP or who do all sorts of other screwy plays that try to get you to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]This is what I thought but then I couldn't find any hands to back this up. So I wanted to know if you guys had any hands to back up this "theory". I started to think that it's a myth that there is this "multitude of bad players". (I have to admit that I've only looked into very tiny sample size).

Re: Are we calling down too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the best piece of advice i have been given so far is " dont bluff". Yes, bet out if u have 2 overcards, yes bet if you have Ace high, but have a flush draw, these are semi bluffs, but trying to knock 1, 2 or more ppl off their hand by betting with 72o is pointless. Another piece of advice i have been given is, " at micro limits, ppl bluff a lot less than you think". I think this is very true and something to keep in your mind. Yes, you may come across the odd player who likes to bluff on scare cards, or a maniac who will bet all the way with nothing, but in general if someone donks, or bets, they have the best hand ( or thinks they have the best hand, which i guess isnt quite the same thing). If someone check/calls the flop, and then raises the turn on a safe card, then quite often, he has a monster hand

[/ QUOTE ]That's exactly my point for calling down less.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that is the case then use that information to determine your options. If you have a strong read on the villain the use it and factor it in to your decision - dont say, "oh he donked 'quite often'- he has a monster, I fold" or "he's probably bluffing, I call".

Your decision should be based on your read and the available information - if you make an incorrect decision than so be it - just so long as you make an informed decision and stick by it.

Your ability to make a BETTER informed decision will improve with experience and thus your earnings will too