KK in NL cash
 

Assuming healthy stacks of about the normal max buy in or more, and stakes of $1/2 live or .50/1 or 1/2 online, I'm questioning the wisdom of getting it all in with kings. Basically everything I've read says you should be willing to get all your chips in with KK. But checking my results, I see that every time I've gotten it in with kings I've seen aces. (Note, as I said earlier this is "healthy" stacks. Short stacks, like $40 in a $200 game don't count.) Are players just too tight nowadays? Is a third or fourth raise just a dead giveaway now?

When I've gotten it all in with AA, I've only gotten called by KK or AA. One time live I went all in against a really bad player with QQ, but he had KK. Another time live, I put in the fourth raise all in with AA and got called by KK. The player to my left said loud enough for me to hear "I would have folded KK so fast there..." These are $1/2 players who are otherwise not that good. It just seems they are super sensitive to this sort of preflop aggression now.

Online I have many more results - 11 occurrences with KK and each time (I was called) I've run into AA. The hands have played out "normally" - large raise, large reraise, then either one more reraise followed by all in, or straight to all in.

Playing the hand differently (waiting to the flop) won't change much I don't think. Assuming a large percentage of your stack was in preflop (at least 25%) and assuming no ace flops, theoretically you should still be able to push the flop and even if called by a set, the set will be unprofitable in the long run. But in this case you will virtually always be called by aces if you push the flop, because aces should be safe from sets by the same reasoning.

So my question, have times changed? Or are my results just variance, and are other players seeing radically different results? Are you getting called by AK or QQ/JJ enough to make up for AA? In my sample, KK is hugely -EV so far (when getting all in preflop).

Re: KK in NL cash
 

NOW LET ME JUST TELL YOU. I AM PROBABLY GOING TO BE THE ONLY PERSON THAT REPLYS TO THIS STUPID POST. HOW ARE YOU NOT GOING TO GET ALL YOUR MONEY IN WITH KK PREFLOP EVERYTIME. IF YOU ARE -EV WITH KK THEN YOU SHOULD STOP PLAYING POKER ALL TOGETHER. YOU HAVE TO HAVE AN EXTREMELY GOOD READ ON A PLAYER OR A SIXTH SENSE.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
So my question, have times changed?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, KK is still a very large favorite, unless you're playing the wrong form of poker.

[ QUOTE ]
In my sample

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is? Let me guess, pretty small.

[ QUOTE ]
NOW LET ME JUST TELL YOU. I AM PROBABLY GOING TO BE THE ONLY PERSON THAT REPLYS TO THIS STUPID POST. HOW ARE YOU NOT GOING TO GET ALL YOUR MONEY IN WITH KK PREFLOP EVERYTIME. IF YOU ARE -EV WITH KK THEN YOU SHOULD STOP PLAYING POKER ALL TOGETHER. YOU HAVE TO HAVE AN EXTREMELY GOOD READ ON A PLAYER OR A SIXTH SENSE.

[/ QUOTE ]

In English, you have a small sample size and need to play more. Stop being results-oriented.

The deck doesn't care what hand you just had or what hand your opponent just had. Online poker isn't rigged and neither is live poker. Running into AA with KK is just variance, and I doubt it has been every time. If it has been, well, that's just crazy and extremely bad luck for you. If you think that KK is a bad hand, you should stop playing poker.

One time I was playing in a live poker room with my friend sitting across from me. I find QQ. I do my thing, he calls. Flop comes KxQ. We throw some chips around, I feel like I have him beat. We flip over the cards, he has KK! What the hell are the chances!? That's poker, bad luck for me, good luck for him, bad variance for me. I wasn't folding unless I had a huge read on him, which my read was that he would do that with AK, or just top pair. Oh well. I still won over the course of that session because I am a better player than he is.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
NOW LET ME JUST TELL YOU. I AM PROBABLY GOING TO BE THE ONLY PERSON THAT REPLYS TO THIS STUPID POST. HOW ARE YOU NOT GOING TO GET ALL YOUR MONEY IN WITH KK PREFLOP EVERYTIME. IF YOU ARE -EV WITH KK THEN YOU SHOULD STOP PLAYING POKER ALL TOGETHER.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, the shift key is right below the caps lock.

Am I speaking to morons? What is it with you guys who get kicks out of looking for something to flame? "How are you not going to get all your money in with KK?" That's your big well reasoned reply? Wow, thanks a lot.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
No, KK is still a very large favorite, unless you're playing the wrong form of poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Says who? Based on what? Obviously it's a huge favorite against random hands, but after the third raise you are not playing random hands. I've read what you've wrote, I already told you that. I'm asking for some modern evidence, not regurgitation.

[ QUOTE ]
In my sample Which is? [ QUOTE ]
Let me guess, pretty small.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

My "sample size" is bigger than you think, and my impression includes more than sample size. That's because my "sample size" includes watching all the other all ins at the tables.

But here's the thing. Your sample size must be small too. So how did you come to your conclusion? Results oriented? Or just listening to conventional wisdom?

[ QUOTE ]
In English, you have a small sample size and need to play more. Stop being results-oriented.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

[ QUOTE ]
Running into AA with KK is just variance, and I doubt it has been every time. If it has been, well, that's just crazy and extremely bad luck for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would you know that? Based on your sample?

[ QUOTE ]
If you think that KK is a bad hand, you should stop playing poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's it. I think KK is a bad hand, nice work Sherlock. Tell you what, if you can't form logical conclusions from English statements, maybe you should stop replying in poker forums.

Times change and attitudes change. Online games are tighter than they used to be. Players gain experience and play differently than they used to. People play way more aggressively in tournaments nowadays than conventional wisdom says they should. etc.

And it seems to me, players are starting to become much more leery of putting all their chips in with JJ or AK. When I hold AA, I'm no longer seeing those hands like I was 2 years ago. I'm asking for other experiences and trends, not more results-oriented attacks from people who can't figure out my question, not idiotic knee-jerk reaction to someone hitting one of your little buttons.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

jeffnc,

why did you even post a question? ItalianFX had a well thought out, non-flame remark, and you go off in such a bad tone.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
why did you even post a question?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I want to know the answer? Why do you think I posted it?

[ QUOTE ]
ItalianFX had a well thought out, non-flame remark, and you go off in such a bad tone.

[/ QUOTE ]

"If you think that KK is a bad hand, you should stop playing poker"

That smart-ass part you mean?

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why did you even post a question?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I want to know the answer? Why do you think I posted it?

[ QUOTE ]
ItalianFX had a well thought out, non-flame remark, and you go off in such a bad tone.

[/ QUOTE ]

"If you think that KK is a bad hand, you should stop playing poker"

That smart-ass part you mean?

[/ QUOTE ]You are going to make a lot of friends on the interweb.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

jeffnc,

Ok, so you're saying when you push KK, Aces will call. Yes, if someone is holding AA, they will call anything you do whether you minraise, potraise, limp, call, push, limp-reraise, check-raise, steal, resteal, stop and go, go and go, I can't think of anymore. You should probably being doing the same with KK.

I'm not that great of a player, but I've come to understand the bad luck of poker and the variance that it can have.

I don't understand why you are getting so defensive. You tell me to stop replying poker forums, yet you can't keep your cool when you get some feedback.

Maybe more players are getting better? After all, the poker boom has been around long enough that the more serious players are getting "better," while the bad players are getting "better" also.

My sample size is small. I definitely don't play the volume of poker that the majority of 2+2 plays, but that is because I have become very discouraged from poker that I feel like I am just throwing away money. Only recently have I really decided to get to work and learn this game. However, it doesn't take Dick Tracey to realize that KK running into AA is just variance. Maybe you need to reevaluate your game. It's like an investing/trading strategy. When more and more people do it, it becomes ineffective. Maybe I'm wrong there, but you get the idea.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
You are going to make a lot of friends on the interweb.

[/ QUOTE ]

What can I say Wilco? I recognize a smart ass answer when I see one. In my opinion my question was perfectly valid. Why would someone rather waste time with a flame if they have no interest in pursuing the topic? Your opinion is noted, but frankly I'm not sure why you bothered if you have no interest in the actual topic at hand either. I'm well aware of how to make friends. I didn't ask about the value of moving all in with kings so I could find new friends. But if someone wants to get smart ass with me, I'll play along. I have a feeling you would too.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are going to make a lot of friends on the interweb.

[/ QUOTE ]

What can I say Wilco? I recognize a smart ass answer when I see one. In my opinion my question was perfectly valid. Why would someone rather waste time with a flame if they have no interest in pursuing the topic? Your opinion is noted, but frankly I'm not sure why you bothered if you have no interest in the actual topic at hand either. I'm well aware of how to make friends. I didn't ask about the value of moving all in with kings so I could find new friends. But if someone wants to get smart ass with me, I'll play along. I have a feeling you would too.

[/ QUOTE ]People take time to answers your question. Sometimes in a slightly sarcastic way, but usually with some useful info, and sometimes a bit of both. If you react so defensively to these answers, people might stop answering your questions completely.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why you are getting so defensive. You tell me to stop replying poker forums, yet you can't keep your cool when you get some feedback.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can keep my cool just fine. Now let's get one thing perfectly clear. I didn't tell you to stop replying to poker forums. I made an analogy to the statement you made. If I were to state it plainly I'd say "Don't post non sequiturs."

"If you think that KK is a bad hand, you should stop playing poker"

Did I say KK is a bad hand? No, so why the smart ass remark?

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so you're saying when you push KK, Aces will call. Yes, if someone is holding AA, they will call

[/ QUOTE ]

No, that's not evenly remotely close to what I said. I appreciate any input you have, but please don't put words in my mouth, like I think KK is a bad hand.

I am not complaining that AA calls when I push KK. (Actually I'm not complaining about anything at all.) I'm stating that when I push or call a push with KK, AA is all I'm seeing. I'm asking for feedback and experience if other players are starting to see more of this these days. Similar to how internet cash play in general has gotten tighter and tight these days.

[ QUOTE ]
However, it doesn't take Dick Tracey to realize that KK running into AA is just variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? You admit you have little real experience (I think only 400 hands in cash games recently? !!) So based on what do you make the claim that KK running into AA is just variance? Having read it elsewhere?

Well I've read the same thing too. And I keep reading people such as yourself regurgitating that same thing. However I have thousands and thousands of hands more than you, and I'm seeing something quite different from what we've read (i.e. conventional wisdom).

Another example. We've all read how great it is to call raises with pocket pairs so we can stack the guy holding AA when we flop a set. However I'm just not seeing it often. All decent players are just not going to go broke holding 1 pair. My conclusion is that there are many more "decent players". The days you can felt people at will every time they have AA/KK and you have 2 pair or better are over, IME.

Another conclusion that I'm starting to form is that the hands that are willing to get it all in preflop are stronger than they used to be. Is it possible it's variance? Absolutely it's very possible. I've played hundreds of thousands of cash Holdem, I know very well about variance. It's also possible my evidence is indicating that it's more than mere variance.

This is significant even if there is a lot of variance in my sample. If all my hands show AA and KK being shown down, then it can be variance and at the same time point to KK being -EV when all in simply because the pendulum is swinging the range too far toward AA vs AK/QQ/JJ whatever. In fact even if QQ/JJ went down and AK went up in the mix it could still be bad as long as AA was high enough.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
People take time to answers your question. Sometimes in a slightly sarcastic way, but usually with some useful info, and sometimes a bit of both.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's very irritating to read the same old knee jerk reactions. It's like living in the dark ages.

ItalianFX says "KK is still a very large favorite".

According to him he has played 400 hands of cash NL (see his other post). No offense to anyone, but that's just not useful info. It's rather frustrating to ask a legitimate question and see 20 pages of flames and not one useful piece of info. I'm quite aware of how the internet works, I've been getting and giving good info on dozens of forums for years.

If you have any, let's hear it.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
No, that's not evenly remotely close to what I said. I appreciate any input you have, but please don't put words in my mouth, like I think KK is a bad hand.

I am not complaining that AA calls when I push KK. (Actually I'm not complaining about anything at all.) I'm stating that when I push or call a push with KK, AA is all I'm seeing. I'm asking for feedback and experience if other players are starting to see more of this these days. Similar to how internet cash play in general has gotten tighter and tight these days.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what are you saying?

[ QUOTE ]
You admit you have little real experience (I think only 400 hands in cash games recently? !!) So based on what do you make the claim that KK running into AA is just variance? Having read it elsewhere?

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been playing poker for over a year now, but just started grinding NL Cash. I've played MTT, STT, Limit, some NL.

You do realize that there are like 1300 some starting hands and the probability of running into AA every time is very small? I'm not a statistics guru, but I think a 5-year old could figure that out.

[ QUOTE ]
Well I've read the same thing too. And I keep reading people such as yourself regurgitating that same thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what's the problem? Is everyone wrong except for you?

I think what I am getting is that the tables are getting tougher and that you can't extract value out of your bigger holdings, but when you do have those big hands and someone plays back, they are holding a big hand too. Am I right?

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]


ItalianFX says "KK is still a very large favorite".

According to him he has played 400 hands of cash NL (see his other post). No offense to anyone, but that's just not useful info. It's rather frustrating to ask a legitimate question and see 20 pages of flames and not one useful piece of info. I'm quite aware of how the internet works, I've been getting and giving good info on dozens of forums for years.


[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, it's not like I just woke up today and said, "It's cold outside, maybe I'll see what this poker thing is all about."

Maybe you didn't read my other post very carefully, but maybe you'll understand now.

If I had to estimate, I'd say I have played around 50,000 hands of some form of Texas Hold 'Em - maybe even more than that.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, it's not like I just woke up today and said, "It's cold outside, maybe I'll see what this poker thing is all about."

Maybe you didn't read my other post very carefully, but maybe you'll understand now.

If I had to estimate, I'd say I have played around 50,000 hands of some form of Texas Hold 'Em - maybe even more than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I read your other post very carefully. You wrote "I've just started to get into the grind of NL cash games. Right now I play 10NL and am very slightly up. I am very TAG, and my VPIP/PFR shows it...but I have a very small sample size right now (like 400 hands). I used to play tournaments alot and hung out in MTT/MTTC alot, and STT for a brief while.

Opposed to tournaments, in cash games, you can just stay TAG the whole time and wait for the big hands. In tournaments, you must react to the changing dynamics, steal, resteal, push/fold, etc."

I understand you've played a good bit of Holdem. Most of it has been in tournaments. I specifically said in this thread I'm talking about cash games. Getting it all in is very different in tournaments than in cash games, and if anything my experience this past 6 months suggests the difference is if anything more so. I have experience in both and in tournaments getting it all in will be done with far weaker hands on average. I play on FullTilt and you can check out results on thepokerdb.com and sharkscope.com for jeffnc. Not claiming to be an expert, but I'm a winning tournament player and winning cash player. And since you are transitioning to cash play, be aware that pushes in tournaments are much lighter than in well-stacked cash play, in general.

Also, the stakes I mentioned are higher than the stakes you're playing. You are going to see weaker hands calling you all in at NL10 than NL200. You will see bad hands in NL200 in the sense that people will occasionally bluff all in, but you're not going to see all in calls with nearly as many weak hands as in NL10.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

jeff, I know most people disagree with you, but I do think there are spots to fold KK pre. I don't see how when that tight player makes that 3rd or 4th raise against you (assuming you're playing pretty tight as well) that you're up against AK or QQ/JJ enough. I do feel there are times where calling AI with KK is -EV, as sacrilegious as that sounds.

Keep in mind that being willing to fold KK pre can be exploited by your opponent, though.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
You do realize that there are like 1300 some starting hands and the probability of running into AA every time is very small? I'm not a statistics guru, but I think a 5-year old could figure that out.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you are still not getting it. Obviously the odds of running into AA when you have KK is very very small. That goes without saying.

What I am saying is that I am seeing a tighter range than conventional wisdom states in the following case:
- a raising war starts preflop
- a 4th raise (usually) is made

In this case, for calling the 4th raise (or making the 4th raise all in) while holding KK, you will see AA some percentage of the time. You have huge negative expectation in that case. To be +EV with KK, you have to see hands other than AA a large enough amount of time to more than make up for the times you see AA. You have to see QQ/JJ/AK etc enough. If you see AA 50% of the time and some combination of those other hands 50% of the time, you will lose money. (you will beat AA as often as you lose to QQ/JJ, but AK is less of an underdog to KK than QQ/JJ).

So, when you hold KK and call an all in, or are called when you push, then I am asking if others are seeing AA too often nowadays, like I am. The odds of someone holding AA when you hold KK are not relevant. The relevant odds are what they hold those times they are willing to put all their chips in the middle.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
jeff, I know most people disagree with you, but I do think there are spots to fold KK pre. I don't see how when that tight player makes that 3rd or 4th raise against you (assuming you're playing pretty tight as well) that you're up against AK or QQ/JJ enough. I do feel there are times where calling AI with KK is -EV, as sacrilegious as that sounds.

Keep in mind that being willing to fold KK pre can be exploited by your opponent, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

A breath of fresh air! TY. Now, how can folding KK be exploited if they don't know what you had? Frankly, since conventional wisdom is what it is, I doubt anyone would ever suspect you just folded kings. They would have to assume you just folded a bluff, or AQ, or JJ or something. And this scenario would be rare enough they probably could never get any useful info on you.

To be willing to fold, another thing to keep in mind is the pot odds of your final fold. You obviously can't get in $150 of your $200 stack, then fold to the final all in raise.

In fact that's part of the difficulty. To get to a point where you're convinced your opponent has a high chance of holding AA, it would require a good amount of money in the pot, increasing your pot odds for a call.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

Lol Jeff just tell the guy to re-read the initial post. I'm not sure I've noticed the same thing as you to be honest. It's certainly true however that people have really tightened up regarding PF all-in. It seems standard to only push/call QQ+. I've recently found myself folding Queens much more frequently...knowing that my oponnent just would'nt push with JJ from two raises.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
So, when you hold KK and call an all in, or are called when you push, then I am asking if others are seeing AA too often nowadays, like I am. The odds of someone holding AA when you hold KK are not relevant. The relevant odds are what they hold those times they are willing to put all their chips in the middle.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think multiple raises (the raising war) would signify AA more often than if someone immediately goes all-in. Calling your KK pushes is also pretty hard to justify because if people are watching you, they will probably call based on how they see you. If you are an extreme TAG, then most people won't be calling you unless they have AA or KK. If you are very loose, people will be more willing to call with QQ/JJ, AK, and maybe AQ.

This is all where reading hands comes into play.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

What do you want to hear? Always fold KK to the fourth reraise it's always AA. There you go.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
jeff, I know most people disagree with you, but I do think there are spots to fold KK pre. I don't see how when that tight player makes that 3rd or 4th raise against you (assuming you're playing pretty tight as well) that you're up against AK or QQ/JJ enough. I do feel there are times where calling AI with KK is -EV, as sacrilegious as that sounds.

Keep in mind that being willing to fold KK pre can be exploited by your opponent, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

A breath of fresh air! TY. Now, how can folding KK be exploited if they don't know what you had? Frankly, since conventional wisdom is what it is, I doubt anyone would ever suspect you just folded kings. They would have to assume you just folded a bluff, or AQ, or JJ or something. And this scenario would be rare enough they probably could never get any useful info on you.

To be willing to fold, another thing to keep in mind is the pot odds of your final fold. You obviously can't get in $150 of your $200 stack, then fold to the final all in raise.

In fact that's part of the difficulty. To get to a point where you're convinced your opponent has a high chance of holding AA, it would require a good amount of money in the pot, increasing your pot odds for a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I totally see what you're saying. It's not sac religious to even discuss the remote possibility of folding KK preflop.

I play lower than you (NL100), but even at Stars, checking over my Pokertracker, a large% of the times I've gotten someone to stick their stack in preflop (when I had KK), they've had AA. However, there are still a decent percent of the time where they have QQ,JJ,AK, etc.

I sleep better at night when I don't fold KK preflop.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

kinda pissed, i just wrote a whole long reply and deleted it while posting a HH to it GRRRR.

cliff notes of my original post -

you are playing a cash game so your decision is based on whether you are ahead of the range of hands he would do this with. If he will felt more than AA its +EV to felt your KK.

the amount of money required to see if someone has AA commits you, deeper than 100BB you can fold it, not deeper you cannot.

By folding KK PF, every single time you are wrong the amount of BB this cost you is very high, you net -20BB or -30BB or whatever instead of +100BB, you will come out even felting it since you have AA v KK as often as you have KK v AA so giving up that amount of +EV is terrible.

the raising with KK will also make it harder to exploit you and play back at you, if you stop felting it you turn into a nit PF.

maybe one thing that is skewing your view is that you dont get to see it, if someone pushes all in with AK or QQ and i have QQ myself i wont be calling(the first times hehe) and you wont see either hand.

100BB deep you can fold KK PF vs a very small amount of players but they do exist, the point is that vs unkowns you cant it you would have to play quite a few hands with someone and see them felt nothing but AA.

if your PF play is aggressive enough, people will felt all sorts of trash, take this hand for example.(not indicative by any stretch just an example of a non AA felt)

Full Tilt Poker
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
5 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
CO: $48.50
BTN: $91.05
SB: $53.95
Hero (BB): $76.45
UTG: $110.25

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($0.75, 5 players)
UTG folds, CO folds, BTN folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $1.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6.50</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $19.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all in to $76.95</font>, SB calls all in for $34.70
Uncalled bet of $22.75 returned to Hero

<font color="black">Flop:</font> J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($108.4, 2 players)
No action

<font color="black">Turn:</font> J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] ($108.4, 2 players)
No action

<font color="black">River:</font> J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] ($108.4, 2 players)
No action

<font color="black">Results:</font>
SB had A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a pair of Jacks)
Hero had K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (two pair, Kings and Jacks) and won $105.40
Final Pot: $105.40 ($3.00 rake)

ok thats all i got, sorry that the more detailed post got deleted but i tried to at least touch on all the points i hit in more depth in that post.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
What do you want to hear? Always fold KK to the fourth reraise it's always AA. There you go.

[/ QUOTE ]

For crissakes, you guys always come out of the woodwork for this stuff. Nice math analysis.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
if your PF play is aggressive enough, people will felt all sorts of trash, take this hand for example

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, see, I'm just not seeing that. Perhaps the reason is that I don't 2 or 3 bet often enough with other hands. Actually, I've been 2 betting a lot more lately with light hands and get folds probably more than 80% of the time. But 3 betting - no, not without AA/KK.

Having said that, I multi table and so do a lot of other players I face, so I'm not sure how much individual tendencies get noticed.

But maybe I'm not seeing it as much precisely for the reason you said. However, I'm also watching other 4-bet/all-in plays at the tables and I'm not seeing AJ ever (not with healhty stack sizes). I have seen AK or QQ a few times.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

OK we haven't distinguished the cases where you're pushing or calling a push, or how many bets there have been.

Let's do some math. Assume this particular case. You raise, get reraised, you 3-bet, and your opponent pushes. Let's say the hands you face are AA/QQ/AK. Now like I said I've been seeing 100% AA - I have to believe that's just variance but what are good players really pushing there? Give it

AA - 70%
QQ - 20%
AK - 10%

Against that range KK is only 36% equity. Change it to
AA - 60%
QQ - 15%
AK - 15%
semi-random - 10%

And you get up to 40% equity (I'm not seeing a situation that good, I don't know if you guys are).

For 36% we need 1.78:1 pot odds to be profitable. So with $200 stacks, raise to $6, get reraised to $18, reraise to $55, opponent goes all in, there is $255 in the pot and $145 to call which is 1.76:1. So I think it's pretty damn close in this case, and not necessarily +EV by any means if that range is about right. You're going to lose $55 here whether you fold or call.

But what if the range were
AA - 80%
QQ - 8%
AK - 8%
semi-random - 4%

Then we've got 29% equity and need 2.45:1. Now folding loses you $55 and calling loses you $85.

It really doesn't seem unreasonable to me to see AA here 4 times out of 5, but others might think differently.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
Calling your KK pushes is also pretty hard to justify because if people are watching you, they will probably call based on how they see you. If you are an extreme TAG, then most people won't be calling you unless they have AA or KK. If you are very loose, people will be more willing to call with QQ/JJ, AK, and maybe AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

This could be an important part of it. But it can't just be looseness. It has to be specifically looseness with 3-betting.

I mentioned in one post making what I think was a big mistake in a live game in Vegas. One of the players at the table was really bad. He raised with utter trash and cold called raises with utter trash. He was a real donator. Finally I got QQ and I was prepared to reem him if he would just stay in the hand. I raised, he reraised. Bingo! I went all in, he called and showed KK.

My mistake? In 4 hours of raising and cold calling, he had not reraised a single time at the table, until my hand. To a lot of players, 3 betting just really means something.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Calling your KK pushes is also pretty hard to justify because if people are watching you, they will probably call based on how they see you. If you are an extreme TAG, then most people won't be calling you unless they have AA or KK. If you are very loose, people will be more willing to call with QQ/JJ, AK, and maybe AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

This could be an important part of it. But it can't just be looseness. It has to be specifically looseness with 3-betting.

I mentioned in one post making what I think was a big mistake in a live game in Vegas. One of the players at the table was really bad. He raised with utter trash and cold called raises with utter trash. He was a real donator. Finally I got QQ and I was prepared to reem him if he would just stay in the hand. I raised, he reraised. Bingo! I went all in, he called and showed KK.

My mistake? In 4 hours of raising and cold calling, he had not reraised a single time at the table, until my hand. To a lot of players, 3 betting just really means something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then that QQ vs KK situation comes down to the abnormal playing of your opponent. If they do something that you aren't expecting, you can almost read their hand perfectly. It's just like in a tournament, heads-up, someone raises, pushes, raises, raises...etc, and then one hand they limp. That should set off warning bells.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($0.75, 5 players)
UTG folds, CO folds, BTN folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $1.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6.50</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $19.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all in to $76.95</font>, SB calls all in for $34.70
<font color="black">Results:</font>
SB had A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a pair of Jacks)
Hero had K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (two pair, Kings and Jacks) and won $105.40

[/ QUOTE ]
That hand was blind versus blind, and the player with KK pushed rather than calling all-in. It takes much less strength to raise blind versus blind, so there is much less room to find out that KK might be behind enough to fold.

It can easily be right to fold KK preflop, particularly in NL $100 and NL $200 online games where the players are not very aggressive and not very imaginative. E.g., UTG at a full table raises, you reraise in middle position, UTG pushes giving you lousy odds. In a similar sample to the OP's, I found only AA when I called all-in with KK. Being willing to fold KK is not exploitable if you will often use the same betting pattern with AA, and of course you will call with AA. Nevertheless, you will find plenty of unthinking reactions from people who think folding KK is heresy, or who assume that the same folks who believe AT is a great hand at NL $25 are playing NL $100. (Some are, but they aren't as common.) Folding KK preflop is not necessarily wrong; it's just unpopular.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

i play 100NL, the players are plenty aggressive there. the hand i posted was 50NL not 25NL, calling an all in takes a stronger hand than pushing all in. folding KK is indeed wrong without some very very strong reads from a nice sample with that player.

Full Tilt Poker
$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
CO: $61.05
BTN: $70.95
SB: $149.65
BB: $193
Hero (UTG): $105.85
MP: $100

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($1.5, 6 players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $4</font>, MP folds, CO calls $4, BTN calls $4, <font color="red">SB raises to $18</font>, BB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises all in to $105.85</font>, CO folds, BTN folds, SB calls $87.85

<font color="black">Flop:</font> A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($220.7, 2 players)
No action

<font color="black">Turn:</font> A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] ($220.7, 2 players)
No action

<font color="black">River:</font> A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($220.7, 2 players)
No action

<font color="black">Results:</font>
SB had T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a pair of Tens)
Hero had K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Kings) and won $217.70
Final Pot: $217.70 ($3.00 rake)

Re: KK in NL cash
 

My sample size includes people calling my PF AI'S with pocket 44, T8s, AK, AQ, 88, and all kinds of trash.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
i play 100NL, the players are plenty aggressive there.

[/ QUOTE ]
On average, they aren't. Play some NL 600, and see if you say typical NL 100 players are aggressive. I don't fold KK preflop to a 4-bet push in an aggressive game because I know people raise frequently and 3-bet frequently, they don't respect my 3-bets, they more frequently limp-reraise with AA, and so the raise/push represents a much wider range of hands than at NL 100. Of course, at NL 25, the push can mean the player thinks 88 is a great hand because it is a favorable coinflip against AK.

[ QUOTE ]
calling an all in takes a stronger hand than pushing all in.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you get that idea from theorizing what you should do, or from watching what your opponents do on average?

By the way, the player who called all-in with AT in the blind-versus-blind hand was getting better than 2:1. Do you still want to say he needed a better hand to call than to push, so calling all-in meant he would have pushed with AT? That you posted two hands where people pushed with KK in a discussion of whether to call pushes with KK makes me wonder. Why didn't you find plenty of good results at NL 100 from calling pushes with KK? Is it because your database looks like mine and the OP's?

People are typically passive and call too much at NL 100. That you can find hands where people called all-in with weak hands does not mean they are pushing with weak hands often enough to make calling a good gamble.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
Then that QQ vs KK situation comes down to the abnormal playing of your opponent. If they do something that you aren't expecting, you can almost read their hand perfectly. It's just like in a tournament, heads-up, someone raises, pushes, raises, raises...etc, and then one hand they limp. That should set off warning bells.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess that's essentially what I'm saying with this post in general. 3-betting and 4-betting are "abnormal behavior" by my opponents, and set off warning bells. From pretty much anyone. I've seen plenty of maniacs who 2 bet like crazy. I'm seeing plenty of bluff raises from aggressive players post flop. I'm not seeing preflop 4 bet maniacs.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
People are typically passive and call too much at NL 100. That you can find hands where people called all-in with weak hands does not mean they are pushing with weak hands often enough to make calling a good gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK so are you saying that pushing with KK is virtually always going to be a good idea? I'm trying to figure out the difference between pushing and calling a push with KK. You have some fold equity going for you with KK because the 3rd bet could have been light. But then again do you really want that fold equity?

Let's say you are up against AQ, he raises to $3, you raise to $9, he reraises to $27 and you push your last $91 with $100 stacks. There's $54 in the pot and $73 for him to call which is certainly foldable for him because his odds are poor. You make $27 if he folds and $40 (I think) if he calls, so you really don't want any fold equity here. Against JJ you want him to call even more. So folding equity actually seems to hurt you (obviously you have 0 folding equity against AA.)

Pushing with KK must always be profitable assuming there are some light 3-betters (but that doesn't happen much at the less aggressive lower limits.)

Maybe this boils down to general lower level of aggression in the smaller games (as opposed to idiotic passivity of calling all-in bets with weak hands at the micro limits), which leads to 3-betting and 4-betting definitely signifying premium hands more often. Perhaps the conventional wisdom is geared more toward more aggressive games, and calling with KK in smaller stakes games is not always a no brainer.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

This is an interesting question actually. I looked at my PT stats yesterday for the first time in a while and found that, unsurprisingly, KK has won for me 79% of the times I played it (AA winning 91% of the time). If you are practicing good bankroll management, you are going to make money on KK over the long-term, IMO.

On a side note I have found that whenever I get dealt a pocket pair, someone else does also. Statistically, that would be slightly more likely to happen.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
People are typically passive and call too much at NL 100. That you can find hands where people called all-in with weak hands does not mean they are pushing with weak hands often enough to make calling a good gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK so are you saying that pushing with KK is virtually always going to be a good idea?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, I said

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] The examples of hands people had when they called all-in are not good for determining their pushing hands. Pushing is different from calling all-in. The people calling all-in may have gotten good pot-odds on the last call, or they might have a tendency to call too much. This doesn't mean they will push with AQ or JJ.

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] In some circumstances, it is right to fold KK preflop without a history against a player. The combination of the position, the betting pattern, and the typical behavior of players in a passive game means it can be a bad gamble to call all-in with KK.

I didn't talk about the decision of whether to push with KK.

[ QUOTE ]

Maybe this boils down to general lower level of aggression in the smaller games (as opposed to idiotic passivity of calling all-in bets with weak hands at the micro limits), which leads to 3-betting and 4-betting definitely signifying premium hands more often. Perhaps the conventional wisdom is geared more toward more aggressive games, and calling with KK in smaller stakes games is not always a no brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]
Right. When a maniac pushes, you give the maniac less credit for a strong hand than when a normal player pushes. When a passive player pushes, you should give him credit for a tighter range.

People too often ask, "What is the right play?" Instead, estimate how right it is to make one play versus another. Your estimates should depend on the information you have including the type of game you are in. If you are asked to put $80 in the pot, and you estimate that on average, you are only going to get $60 back, you should fold.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

like i said, these people called my push with those hands, its much easier to push with them than call a push because you have FE, so if they would call the push, they would push it also in some circumstances but the range is definitely wider than only AA. The guy who had A10 definitely was pushing lighter than AA from the PF battle we were having.

you comment that the guy with A10 was pot committed, but you dont think KK is pot committed by the time you realize they probably have AA? KK is 20% to win against AA and a favorite against all other hands, im pretty sure its pot committed too unless you want to just give up equity.

I definitely have other instances of calling AI with KK and being ahead its just that i didnt feel like sifting through PT for them, i just posted hands from last night.

this thread has dragged on imo, if you want to fold KK be my guest i obv cant convince you guys, but you are giving away money.

Re: KK in NL cash
 

Jeffnc.

I had the same problem once. Anytime I would get a player all in preflop with KK - they held either KK or AA. You ask if players are becoming so tight now, that the KK vs AA situation is the only one you will see when you put your fourth reraise in preflop (or third - or whatever).

Now, here's something to think about. Maybe it is a dead give away....because it's you? Maybe the other players haven't gotten insanely good but just realise very fast that YOU are very very tight, and the only reason for you to make these moves are that you have AA or KK - and thus, they will only call you with AA or KK.
When I had this situation I loosened up my game a lot...and in my case I had gotten too tight.

Well as I said...you can think about it...maybe it is you rather than them who has gotten too tight?

Omahakiller

Re: KK in NL cash
 

When pushing KK pre-flop I've been called a number of times by AA, but I've also been called by silly hands like 22, and lost to them. It's just variance.

Remember, somebody just won a mega lottery with 176 million to 1 odds. With lots of people playing poker odds that seem very unlikely actually occur all the time.

People still play stupid hands, and we remember the KK vs AA beats better than we remember the donkey call that we win.