15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

I'm at work so I apologize for no HH.

$11 buy-in $15K gtd. on stars last night.
~195 people left. 180 is ITM.
Blinds are 300/600 with a 25(?) ante. Average stack is ~13000.
My stack is ~4,000 after I post the BB.
MP1 makes it 1800 and is called by MP2. Folds to me and I look down at 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. My friend and I disagreed about this one. Any thoughts?

Both opponents have slightly more than the average.

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

I would fold and look to push any two into next unopened pot.

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

I push this and look to triple up heading into the money or go home trying

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

Is a call out of the question here? If my stack is not going to do any damage anyway, Can I set-mine and fold if I miss? I'm pretty sure that I'd back into the money but wouldn't be able to make a serious run with my stack as low as it was (The next pay level was ~140 IIRC).

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

Pushing creates difficult decisions for the other two parties.

If the MP1 calls then MP2 can push over top ... so he needs to make a tough choice. MP2 didn't reraise so was likely wanting to see a flop.

You are likely ahead of a lot that call you here.

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

I'd fold here.

Well...maybe I wouldn't. You are more desperate than I originally thought. This may be a push.

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is a call out of the question here? If my stack is not going to do any damage anyway, Can I set-mine and fold if I miss? I'm pretty sure that I'd back into the money but wouldn't be able to make a serious run with my stack as low as it was (The next pay level was ~140 IIRC).

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A call is out of the question. You don't have the stack size to get enough implied odds on a set. Furthermore, your stack isn't deep enough to stop'n'go. Folding here is probably not wrong. If you push, they will get sweet odds to call, so don't think they'll ever fold. I fold this!

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is a call out of the question here? If my stack is not going to do any damage anyway, Can I set-mine and fold if I miss? I'm pretty sure that I'd back into the money but wouldn't be able to make a serious run with my stack as low as it was (The next pay level was ~140 IIRC).

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Calling 1/3 of your stack then folding is very bad.
As I said I would probably fold, but pushing to try to get it heads up with some overlay is an option.

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is a call out of the question here? If my stack is not going to do any damage anyway, Can I set-mine and fold if I miss? I'm pretty sure that I'd back into the money but wouldn't be able to make a serious run with my stack as low as it was (The next pay level was ~140 IIRC).

[/ QUOTE ]

A call is out of the question. You don't have the stack size to get enough implied odds on a set. Furthermore, your stack isn't deep enough to stop'n'go. Folding here is probably not wrong. If you push, they will get sweet odds to call, so don't think they'll ever fold. I fold this!

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I don't think a stop and go is that bad here. Hero's remaining stack is large enough that it puts OR in a very difficult spot on the flop, with a big stack flat-caller behind.

All the options are pretty grim but I would guess that the EV of pushing pre-flop and pushing any flop are more or less the same.

Calling pre-flop and then folding is the only really bad option.

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

Actually, I take that back. We're left with 2200 to push, not 2800, so we'll need some really bad opponents for this to ever work.

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

i'd call and close my eyes, then shove any flop.

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

Thanks for the replies, all. Registrar, After calling the raise to t1800 after posting t600, I'd have t2800. Does this change anything?

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

Yes, I think so. If you were up agaisnt one player, with a 11k behind stack, the pot is 4k odd and you push 2800 into that, closing the action, he's goining to call unless he was raising really light and has missed the board by a million miles. If it's two players, the pot is 6k or so, the first player is going to have a hard time calling with overcards, for example, or an underpair to the board, because he's not closing the action. The second player should call with anything if player one folds but people make mistakes and he might not, you might have the best hand etc.

I think it's easier for OR to flatcall your flop push of 2200 into 6000 than it is to call a flop push of 2800 into 6000.

(all figures are approx.)

Basically, if you decide to play this hand, you have to be willing to go broke and be a dog but as you are short that is a chance that you may have to take. I'm not sure, it's tricky. However, what you need to decide is which line is most =EV. Calling to fold the flop is definitely bad.

I'm not sure what I'd do but I think I'd call and push the flop because people fold here a lot more than they should.

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

Thanks again for the thoughts. The debate I was having with my buddy was whether or not set-mining was ok here and that losing t1200 would not really decrease my EV ($$-wise, not t$-wise) given the structure of the tourney. At this stage we were looking at about 1 more orbit for the tiny stacks to drop and we're ITM (meaning folding preflop or postflop makes us $15). If we hit the set, we're almost at the average chipstack and ready to play poker again. However, if we push we're up against at least one caller in at best a race.

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

Couple points:
1) I mean no offense, but playing set minded here is absolutely the wrong way to think about the situation. Your implied odds are not even close. You will hit your set 1/8 times on the flop. At this stage in the tournament, sets are not important unless two big stacks are dueling.
2) A stop and go does not work unless you are in earlier position and will act first postflop, which could allow you to make 7s-9s fold or possibly 10s. Raymer made an interesting post about such a play, but this situation does not fit the bill.
3) When it gets close to the money, with relatively large blinds, and a mp raises and someone calls, it is significant. Your stack is not large enough to get them to fold at all, and I think you should try to open raise on another hand.

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

Thanks, I folded and busted out somewhere in the 160s. I think that this is best here, although I wanted to see if other options were out there.

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

Yeah I would fold too. Too optomistic to think we can bulkly any out here (maybe caller). Even then the OR must have raised again and would have 66 crushed.

Fold and begin to push in next few hands.

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

What would we do if OR had no callers?

Do we still fold or push?

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

umistboy, that's interesting. I think the read on the particular person would come more into play in such a scenario.

Re: 15K Gtd. Stars. Bubble decision vs. 2 opps
 

fold I would rather open push 23o on the button, that +EV is higher.
Cheers!
John