A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

I've been playing very TAG. Open/raiser has been betting light with garbage somewhat frequently. CO knows this. SB knows this and is getting desperate. He could easily have an under pair here, but based on reads, his most likely holding is a big Ace, probably AK. ONE shove and then a slightly larger isolation shove, I felt would eliminate the first 2 players espeically since I have been playing tight. A lot of dead money in the pot and most likely a 60/40. Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (8 handed) handconverter.com

SB (t1717)
Hero (t2675)
UTG (t1565)
UTG+1 (t4770)
MP1 (t5685)
MP2 (t1545)
CO (t6740)
Button (t4015)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t300</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls t300, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t1717</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t2675</font>...


Final Pot: t4992

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

This play is -EV and unnecessary

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

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This play is -EV and unnecessary

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agreed

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

Okay assuming we feel confident the first 2 players will fold, and you know SB's range is rather wide, what then?

Forgot to mention, blinds going up to 100/200 in about 4 hands too. This is a 180/4 also.

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

at best 60/40 to be left with 900 chips...not for me

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

2,467 in the pot. I effectively have to put in 1567 in the pot. Just did the math. It's about 63/37. Just pokerstoved also.

657,524,736 games 0.005 secs 131,504,947,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.962% 63.67% 00.29% 418650216 1913280.00 { 66+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 36.038% 35.75% 00.29% 235047960 1913280.00 { T9s }

Just barely -EV, unless you worsen his range with 5% bluffs or SC's etc... Add to that the first 2 players have to fold. It's only close if the first 2 fold (they did BTW).

Just curious. With having to react pretty quickly and doing some slight math in my head at the time, it seemed more +EV. Definitely closer than I thought.

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

i dont understand the point of playing this hand

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

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i dont understand the point of playing this hand

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LOL. I was looking for +EV edges and as I said in my prevsious post, all the dead money in the pot, this seemed +EV. I will happily take a 60/40. If the pot is offering me 70/30 etc...

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

the chips u have in this situation arent enough to make a play here...+EV or not...on a side note i hope UTG+1 has 910hh and calls for +EV :-P

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

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the chips u have in this situation arent enough to make a play here...+EV or not...

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WHAT?

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

u should have never gotten involved in this hand

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

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u should have never gotten involved in this hand

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Justification? or are you just basing that on opinion? Back-up? Math?

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

you are playing a 4/180? players in this are so weak/loose its amazing at what will call u...instead of getting most of your chips in with worse hand here with possible two callers and at least 1 u are creating a situation that didnt need to be created

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
you are playing a 4/180? players in this are so weak/loose its amazing at what will call u...instead of getting most of your chips in with worse hand here with possible two callers and at least 1 u are creating a situation that didnt need to be created

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Again! Justification? If you are going to derail every thread in the MTT forum, then at least give some mathematical justification. Not just, it doesn't look right because you have T high dude.

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

Okay for math justification here...u already said heads up you are probably 40/60 here...what if UTG1 calls that lowers it even more...if its 3 way EV becomes?

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

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Okay for math justification here...u already said heads up you are probably 40/60 here...what if UTG1 calls that lowers it even more...if its 3 way EV becomes?

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Do the math! If CO comes along, then add his assigned range &amp; those chips to the calclations.

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

if UTG1 comes along as u described as weak/light betting with junk he now has a pretty good price to call with his junky hands which has now directly made your odds to win this hand worse...while you are obv at best 40/60 with SB here when UTG1 comes along with something like J10hh u are 21% to beat out AKdd and J10hh with 910ss

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

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if UTG1 comes along as u described as weak/light betting with junk he now has a pretty good price to call with his junky hands which has now directly made your odds to win this hand worse...while you are obv at best 40/60 with SB here when UTG1 comes along with something like J10hh u are 21% to beat out AKdd and J10hh with 910ss

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First of all, utg+1 could literally have anything, but less likely a premium. He was raising solid with big hands and minraising with Q5s, K2s &amp; K6o to name 3 hands. JTs is actually more than I'm willing to give him credit for. He hasn't switched gears the whole time we've been at the table together, raising big with the goods to 4/5bb's or minraising with garbage. It is still a math problem and as I said utg+1 was not likely to call, CO on the other hand could have had a small pocket or something that he considered worth calling, but he was calling because utg+1 was raising trash. He was probably 85% to fold to 2 shoves regardless of EV or ranges.

Math?

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

no math to back up what i am saying as i dont know how to calculate it...my bottom line is u are 40/60 headsup with raiser and worse if UTG1 calls even if it is Q5s hes still favorite over u to win..and being a 4$/180 i would not want to let UTG1 have a chance to think he can knock 2 ppl out with q4...he just mite try

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

dude if this is a 4/180 there are way better spots to get your money in then this.

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

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dude if this is a 4/180 there are way better spots to get your money in then this.

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thank u

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

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no math to back up what i am saying as i dont know how to calculate it...my bottom line is u are 40/60 headsup with raiser and worse if UTG1 calls even if it is Q5s hes still favorite over u to win..and being a 4$/180 i would not want to let UTG1 have a chance to think he can knock 2 ppl out with q4...he just mite try

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Please learn what EV is. If you know your opponent (short stack) has exactly AA (he accidentally flipped his cards over) and you have 32o in the BB and the pot is offering you 10:1 odds from the BB, do you call?

YES. you are about 7.3:1 dog, but still +EV. Now I'm using an extreme example for this purpose, but it will do.

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Please learn what EV is. If you know your opponent (short stack) has exactly AA (he accidentally flipped his cards over) and you have 32o in the BB and the pot is offering you 10:1 odds from the BB, do you call?

YES. you are about 7.3:1 dog, but still +EV. Now I'm using an extreme example for this purpose, but it will do.

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if u are playing for your tournment life u dont call

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Please learn what EV is. If you know your opponent (short stack) has exactly AA (he accidentally flipped his cards over) and you have 32o in the BB and the pot is offering you 10:1 odds from the BB, do you call?

YES. you are about 7.3:1 dog, but still +EV. Now I'm using an extreme example for this purpose, but it will do.

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if u are playing for your tournment life u dont call

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What? Dude...

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

its +EV yes...but comeon man why would u call with tournament life just bcause u are getting 10:1 on money? this is ridiculous

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

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its +EV yes...but comeon man why would u call with tournament life just bcause u are getting 10:1 on money? this is ridiculous

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Sigh...

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

okay rockin maybe this worked for you - if your reads are as spot on as you seem to think maybe its marginally +EV. The problem is if you take this opportunity you might be burning chips that could be used for stronger +EV situations later.

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

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okay rockin maybe this worked for you - if your reads are as spot on as you seem to think maybe its marginally +EV. The problem is if you take this opportunity you might be burning chips that could be used for stronger +EV situations later.

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Yeah, this was definitely questionable, but being as how I am usually about 15/10 or so (sometimes higher) VPIP/PFR and this tourny I was at 9/2 due to the action, I started even more so looking for +EV edges and doing quick math at the table it seemed a little more +EV than it actually was. Definitely questionable.

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

Results in white below:


<font color="white"> utg+1 &amp; CO folded. T9s vs AKo. River a 9 to beat AK. </font>

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

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its +EV yes...but comeon man why would u call with tournament life just bcause u are getting 10:1 on money? this is ridiculous

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Sigh...

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lol...

love some "tournament life"

As for the hand I do similar sorts of things from time to time- usually as you described, been card dead trying to take a 60/40 with overlay. But as you've come to already this is likely too thin, more specifically all of your reads have to be on for it to be +ev.

Always love the reaction from AK though when you're right and what did happen does. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

ignoring the retarded part of this thread: rockin I think you're being results oriented, and your assumptions are just not accurate enough of the time for this to be +EV

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
ignoring the retarded part of this thread: rockin I think you're being results oriented, and your assumptions are just not accurate enough of the time for this to be +EV

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I agree with that. Largely sure utg+1 would fold (he had folded to quite a few reraises except when he opened for larger bets). CO questionable, but he had been trying to get involved in pots that utg+1 had been opening. SB's range is pretty accurate. CO is the only factor possibly swinging this to the negative. Thanks for the response. I was pretty much more concerned with finding +EV spots and my quick math made for a questionable move. Not worried about the results (even if a loss). Felt pretty confident in my reads.

Afterwards, doing the math, I couldn't believe how close to neutal EV this was (excluding the CO from the equation). CO definitely makes this -EV. Thanks.

Re: A play I usually don\'t make!!!
 

I wish the squeeze play was never written about in hoh, it would have saved me an awful lot of money at the stakes i play at.

I kind of like having a chance of winning a showdown when i try something like this. Ax can kill kq nicely, or even a low pair.

Playing with 10 high just doesnt seem to work, unless you get FE.

Also, one problem is kind of over thinking what ppl can have.

ie 'he raised on button, so didnt have much, the sb rr, knowing that he didnt have much. I have crud in the bb, so if i raise they will both fold', before running into 10 10 and ak

Just my 2c