Stud variance :(
 

Today I had my worst session of hell this year.
Despite playing vs total predicatable pay-stations and other donkeys, I lost EVERY god damn pot I built up. If I had a straight donkeys caught a flush, I have a flush they fill up for a boat. If I have trips I never fill up and you gessed it, I lose to a straight or flush. I lost monster after monster and here I am just cringing since my opponents were playing as foolish as can be.

Over a month's work of hard scraping of $$$ all shot down the tubes in one single day to RETARDS! Since early this morning when this pattern started I kept telling myself this will change, things will turn around. NOPE! All day the card Gods laugh as I take one beat after another. No other profession seems to be so cruel I think.

Someone say something before I go kill myself for being such a total failure?

Re: Stud variance :(
 

After a while you just have to walk away. When I am in the middle of a bad session, I convince myself to stay and keep playing. Even tho you you think you are playing well, you will still be playing with a little bit of tilt and anger. I find myself calling down some hands I shouldnt be. This just adds to the frustration. Just walk away, walk away.

Re: Stud variance :(
 

Same here. Baaad downswing. Lost approximately 80% of bankroll in last month.

Re: Stud variance :(
 

[ QUOTE ]
Same here. Baaad downswing. Lost approximately 80% of bankroll in last month.

[/ QUOTE ]

that is pretty bad. you need to move down in limits before this happens!

Downswings happen. I bet there is not a single player who hasn't had a rough couple months...if they tell you so, they just haven't played enough hands. Bankroll management is very important as there is a lot of variance inherent in the game....review your stats and make sure you are plugging all your leaks as well as possible.

only thing that sucks is when that variance comes from all your money being tied up in neteller with no way to deposit though [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Re: Stud variance :(
 

Not saying this is your problem, but....

A whole month of winnings gone in one session? Likely you are quitting with very small wins, 'locking it up' for the day. While this may ensure you a decent nights sleep, it might, I say might, give you a false sense of how you are really doing overall.

The fact you win (for example, say) 85% of the time is meaningless. BB/100 over time will tell you the truth.

I personally find myself playing poorly while getting shown gut shot after gut shot after rolled down 3's, though I usually take a break and pump myself back up. It is easy while losing to say, just 1 more street, after all, whats one more sb at this point.

All those bets add up though.

As Sklansky points out, playing in this fashion means you are theoretically quitting while playing well and/or in a good game, while putting in longer sessions while playing not as well in a (usually) tougher game.

Even while losing in a wild game, it's easy to find excuses to play extra hands. "I'm going to play these pocket 6's because if I hit I'm going to win a big pot." Good bye 2 or 3 more bets.

Now you might say, "None of that applies to me, I played really well, and they just sucked out."

If thats true, great, just keep playing solid poker and things will even out.

Just food for thought.

Re: Stud variance :(
 

"that is pretty bad. you need to move down in limits before this happens!"

Please don't

Re: Stud variance :(
 

Stud has variance. Feel better?

Re: Stud variance :(
 

Although I suppose this entire thread ought to be in the BBV forum, I can understand why you would post it here inasmuch as it is only this relatively small community of stud players that is going to have any real sense of what you (and I and others) are going through when the inevitable massive stud variance downswing occurs.

I'm not going to pretend that I have any sure-fire solutions or profound advice that is going to reverse your slump. The suggestions that have already been provided by others in this thread all have merit. What I can offer you is some reassurance that you are not alone. Here is my testemonial.

In the wake of the UIGEA, I was forced to find a new poker site to play at. I previously had played predominantly at two Cryptologic sites for the previous 14 months and had been consistently successful at both, registering winning months 10 out of 14 at one of the sites and 12 out of 14 at the other. But with the UIGEA being enacted, I began playing at FullTilt Poker on October 10th. About 80% of my play since then has been in stud games either double-tabling 1/2, or single-tabling 3/6 or 5/10. For the 21 days in October I played, I won a little over $500. In Novemeber, I won a little over $600. In December, I won just under $1000. During the first 28 days of January, I won about $650. Then the marathon of bad-beats, suckouts, etc. by all of those fish, donkeys, maniacs and morons who I had been pummeling for four months began. Between January 29th and February 10th I lost about $800. Since then, I seem to have stopped hemorrhaging chips and have had a couple of small winning sessions.

My point is that even poker players who have a consistently winning track-record experience slumps. You can't avoid them. The hard part is minimizing them, i.e., being able to exercise enough self-control that you keep from losing even more. In other words, when things are going bad in a session figure out a way to be satisfied that you only lost half of a buy-in instead of losing two or three. Believe me, this is easier said than done, as I'm still trying to instill this amount of discipline in my own game.

Good luck with surviving your slump.

Re: Stud variance :(
 

I find that i struggle setting losS limits. This is something you might want to consider. its not the same as setting win limits, which is horrible, because when im losing it makes me play worse, so after awhile it isn't just variance anymore. Dont quit winners just to lock up a + for the day either. And we all know how crappy you feel. it will pass. Stud is BRUTAL.

Re: Stud variance :(
 

argggh. Well yesterday I couldn't take anymore. I shut everything down, went and Played Civ IV all night and tried to get my mind off all those beats. Today I woke up, decided it's a new day, and I can start new & fresh. I decided to wipe out all superstitions of card gods screwing me and play my best ( as always).

Nope... Again this morning my bad streak just continued at my tables. I got sucked out and sucked out over & over again. By the same retards. That is Capital R for RETARD. I don't think Donkey is a term I want to use at this point. I have AAK for example with A showing. I raise first to act. And the 100% vpip donkey of course calls. I pair my ace... TRIP ACES! I'm raising again. Donkey who starts with 27Q rainbow of course calls all the way without so much as a pair or flush draw and backdoors some crazy low straight. Over and over this morning I just could do absolutely NO RIGHT!!!

I don't play on tilt, but I sure am feeling certain effects trying to come through. Just for the reccord, I have read Chip's stud chapter for years and know it by heart, I also have read and re-read Ray Zee's ADVANCED stud over & over again. I still don't claim to be an expert, but I do know a fair well I think? At least far more than these... 'RETARDS'

Again I am puzzled, at how can I possibly ever move up the limits in this rediculous variance game when RETARDS are just kicking my a$$ left and right.

I was hoping today to reply to this thread and report some different news.. how really playing well does turn around and add +ev, unfortuntaly I've just dug myself a bigger hole.

I'm taking a break now to hide my head back under the rock I was hiding under yesterday. Just MAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYBE later on today I'll try another stab at this downswing. I don't know but I definitely need another break.

Re: Stud variance :(
 

I don't know what limits you are playing, but keep in mind that some people will play 80%-100% of their dealt hands regardless of their starting cards (especially at the lower limits). They have no strategy, no starting hand requirements, no hand reading ability, just dumb plain luck. Their motto is "you can't win the hand if you're not in the hand". These are the people you want to play!!!!

Hang in there. The variance will swing back.

Re: Stud variance :(
 

If you are playing a guy that is calling with Queen high and you have paired your door card Ace, dont leave that game.....EVER! You are in a very +EV game, dont leave and the tide will change.

Re: Stud variance :(
 

The thing we learn most about during downswings is our selves and our weaknesses. During my latest slump I have (and still am) dropped down levels to where I can feel comfortable with losing sessions. All the while I question myself about every play, even the ones that I seemed to make on autopilot (especially the autopilot plays). For example, where I would aggressively play a small edge with a vulnerable hand in an early street I now wait for a later street to make the most out of winners while losing the least. Too many of our mistakes are made without thinking; they became part of our game when we were winning that kept us from winning more. I think this is the time we learn the most about playing the game profitably.

Re: Stud variance :(
 

Brad-

What makes your statement so funny and true is that there was that player sitting in between you and me at FTP's 3/6 stud table last night who was playing exactly as you describe...and somehow was managing to win, albeit not very much.

When I see players like this actually fold on 3rd street it makes me wonder how bad their hand has to be before they will fold. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Stud variance :(
 

[ QUOTE ]
Brad-

What makes your statement so funny and true is that there was that player sitting in between you and me at FTP's 3/6 stud table last night who was playing exactly as you describe...and somehow was managing to win, albeit not very much.

When I see players like this actually fold on 3rd street it makes me wonder how bad their hand has to be before they will fold. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I know. I made one really crappy 6th street call with pair of Q's, gutshot str8 draw, & flush draw into his Aces full. Didn't improve & had to fold. If that is the same guy....couldn't put him on a hand for nothing.

I have been seeing alot of play like that recently but I have not been getting any cards to fight back with. I'll get 1 middle pair per hour & when I do, the other 2 outs are someone else's door card. I basically have no hand & no draw when it has been raised, reraised, & cold called twice and I'm card dead. Go figure!

But, knock on wood, I have had a couple of small winning sessions & a couple of breakevens, so maybe the tide is turning for me.

Re: Stud variance :(
 

LOL

Re: Stud variance :(
 

Update. Came back and played 2 more hours trying to prove 2+2 philosophy is right. And I just lost almost another 100 big bets to the worst players ever.

???

I'm starting to shake now. And theories of a site's doom switch is now coming to realization.

Re: Stud variance :(
 

wow that's a pretty bad downswing.

you might want to re evaluate your overall play.

what's your general stud philosophy?

Re: Stud variance :(
 

Take a break. Try a different site. Go to a live casino if you are playing online.

Sorry for your bad luck.

Re: Stud variance :(
 

Once a session gets to a point where I feel like I am going to lose a hand even when I know I am way ahead, I just call it a night. It is hard to come out winner when you feel like you are going to lose no matter what happens. Like others have said, you might feel like you are still playing your best, but you probably aren't.

Re: Stud variance :(
 

[ QUOTE ]
Update. Came back and played 2 more hours trying to prove 2+2 philosophy is right. And I just lost almost another 100 big bets to the worst players ever.

???

I'm starting to shake now. And theories of a site's doom switch is now coming to realization.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am going through a massive downswing myself. I have all the classic downswing tales to tell but you have already experienced them so I will desist.

You cannot escape the downswings just as you cannot escape the upswings. If you can beat the game you are sitting in and it sounds that you can then stay there. Do not play lower unless you have less than 300bb for the game you are in. Do not play something else. Do not switch site. You cannot escape the downswing. If a roulette player is to lose five consecutive bets then it does not matter if he makes all five bets during one lazy afternoon or if he places one bet a year for five years. You will just have to grin and bear it, just like you do during an upswing.

Here is to hoping our fortunes improve...

Important Exception
 

Important exception to my 'don't move tables' advice: if you find a softer game then play it...

Re: Important Exception
 

Ok, after shutting everything down, again, then spending a fair bit today re-reading Advanced Stud7 etc, to see if I'm doing anyting possibly wrong (aside from not slowplaying my rolled up hands), I decided to get back into the game.

I LOST ANOTHER HUNDRED BIG BETS AGAIN!!!

This to the same donkey who has 100% vpip and even re-raises my re-raise with a pair of deuces when I have a paired door card and obvious trip kings.

If I am playing this wrong, please, someone explain to me what I am supposed to do. I THINK I'm following the Ray Zee system right. I just can't understand what is going on the last few days.

I'm at the point where I am feeling too scared to even raise with rolled-ups, after losing just about all of them this week. I think if I lose another grand the next few days I'm going to retire for good. I just can't handle these ludicrous swings which have no end in sight.

Re: Important Exception
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, after shutting everything down, again, then spending a fair bit today re-reading Advanced Stud7 etc, to see if I'm doing anyting possibly wrong (aside from not slowplaying my rolled up hands), I decided to get back into the game.

I LOST ANOTHER HUNDRED BIG BETS AGAIN!!!

This to the same donkey who has 100% vpip and even re-raises my re-raise with a pair of deuces when I have a paired door card and obvious trip kings.

If I am playing this wrong, please, someone explain to me what I am supposed to do. I THINK I'm following the Ray Zee system right. I just can't understand what is going on the last few days.

I'm at the point where I am feeling too scared to even raise with rolled-ups, after losing just about all of them this week. I think if I lose another grand the next few days I'm going to retire for good. I just can't handle these ludicrous swings which have no end in sight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I found an even softer game and had a winning session, the first in a long time. However, unless you find a softer game you are just going to have to play through it. Variance cannot be escaped from. This is why the pros write books as the income derived from the books makes them less vulnerable to variance. Keep playing. I started a thread called 'Analysis of a Seven Stud Downswing' or such and I got a load of are you sure you are not tilting posts...very annoying. At least, you have not had any of those.

Re: Important Exception
 

Well I definitely know I'm not playing too lose. I mean, some of these guys are seeing EVERY hand, no matter how many re-raises they have to cold-call with a non-suited & non-connected or paired hand!

Maybe I could tweak my own vpip a bit, but I do know the difference between drawing live and not. And yes, I will fold kings even when I know I have the best hand if I see my king and kicker is already out and the pot will be multi-way. So I know i'm not CHASING or pushing too much here.

Bring-in is 1/2 of the bet value. And the ante is 1/2 of the Bring-in. I suppose that counts as a high ante-game. What the standard vpip should be for this structure I admit I do not know. But I do try to play according to how fair my hand holds to what I observe showing.

Re: Stud variance :(
 

[ QUOTE ]
lost almost another 100 big bets

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense, but based on this and your other posts, I would guess you are probably playing losing poker.

Jeff

Re: Stud variance :(
 

Alright. After investing some hours today, I finally was able to win some big-bets this Saturday evening. But the hands I actually made money on I technically played wrong according to the books.

In one case I had rolled up queens. Now I know fair well from SSII that you SHOULD limp and entice other people into the pot. I also know you should never re-raise a raise, especially not a DOUBLE raise as it makes everyone know you have trips obvious. Well, I 3-bet in stud with a queen showing despite a K and A were already raising and re-raising first-street in front of me. And if that seems wrong, let me tell you that I even got 4-bet by a guy behind me with an 8 as his door O_o. Anyhow, by a pure miracle I ended up winning that pot which is the first real pot I have won since this downswing started.

A few hands later, I won this hand (to be posted below), though I feel I may have made a mistake not sure. I have posted the history below. I apologize that Freddf’s board cards don’t show up in the history but I don’t have control over that. I’ll just say that he never paired his board the entire way.

My kings are live and I raised, though it really doesn’t seem to thin out the field much at these stakes. Yes, I am at 1-2 and I simply can’t drop any lower on this network. Burger’s call is meaningless to me. He is 76% vpip, and even called my 3-betting cold with a rag hand a few hands earlier. He also will cap third street if he has a 3-flush, even if 6 other players all share the same suit of his O_o. In other words, just another donkey, and while he has been contributing a bit of chips to everyone, he also has been getting extremely lucky too.

Freddf’s re-raise is a bit worrisome. He is also very loose, and even if he knew I had 2 kings he would still call with 2-6-A rainbow regardless. But I don’t think he’d raise with just ace high. So I decided to put him on split aces. At this point, when the action gets back to me, now what?

I suppose some will say fold because you are up against a higher pair and even if I hit 2-pair I can still easily lose. And some may say there is enough money in the pot to make chasing worth while, as I can see his board and get away early if his board pairs.

I decided to peel off a card as my kings in particular were live (I always try to keep myself live when playing hands). Here I hit 2-pair so decided to check-raise and possibly knock out the donkey between us. Unfortunately he decided to keep chasing… yes it’s his nature. But at least I am getting more money into the pot with him between us. While I will lose a fair amount of time against the aces, I still can show a nice profit here IMHO by the donkey’s money even if I don’t win that many times, just because of the ROI.

If I really played bad here, I’d like to know. Anyhow, now that I finally got a few big bets today, I decided to put a stop to things. Ohh I understand that stop-loss ideas are a sham, but I’m going to stop for psychological reasons. If I end up just losing whatever big bets I made today back to the donkeys again, my nerves won’t be able to take it.

So…. At least for NOW my down-streak has paused.


Game #3172711523: 7 Card FL ($1/$2) - 2007/02/17 - 19:40:05 (DST)
Table "Abilen"
Seat 1: Vinc25032 ($30.75 in chips)
Seat 2: Krustyman ($23 in chips)
Seat 3: Manace ($39 in chips)
Seat 4: R_Diamond ($125 in chips)
Seat 5: Burger005 ($25.75 in chips)
Seat 6: freddyf ($28.75 in chips)
Seat 7: Veda10022 ($82 in chips)
Seat 8: Del-UK ($24 in chips)
freddyf: posts the ante $0.25
Del-UK: posts the ante $0.25
Manace: posts the ante $0.25
R_Diamond: posts the ante $0.25
Vinc25032: posts the ante $0.25
Krustyman: posts the ante $0.25
Veda10022: posts the ante $0.25
Burger005: posts the ante $0.25
----- 3rd STREET -----
dealt to Vinc25032 [6c]
dealt to Krustyman [Jd]
dealt to Manace [6d]
dealt to R_Diamond [5s Kc Kd]
dealt to Burger005 [Js]
dealt to freddyf [Ad]
dealt to Veda10022 [Jh]
dealt to Del-UK [2s]
Del-UK: brings-in $0.50
Vinc25032: folds
Krustyman: folds
Manace: calls $0.50
R_Diamond: raises $1
Burger005: calls $1
freddyf: raises $2
Veda10022: folds
Del-UK: folds
Manace: folds
R_Diamond: calls $1
Burger005: calls $1
----- 4th STREET -----
dealt to R_Diamond [5s Kc Kd][5h]
dealt to Burger005 [Js][8d]
dealt to freddyf [Ad][Qh]
freddyf: bets $1
R_Diamond: raises $2
Burger005: calls $2
freddyf: calls $1
----- 5th STREET -----
dealt to R_Diamond [5s Kc Kd 5h][8c]
dealt to Burger005 [Js 8d][2h]
dealt to freddyf [Ad Qh][4s]
freddyf: checks
R_Diamond: bets $2
Burger005: calls $2
freddyf: calls $2
----- 6th STREET -----
dealt to R_Diamond [5s Kc Kd 5h 8c][Qs]
dealt to Burger005 [Js 8d 2h][3h]
dealt to freddyf [Ad Qh 4s][Jc]
freddyf: checks
R_Diamond: bets $2
Burger005: folds
freddyf: calls $2
----- RIVER -----
dealt to R_Diamond [5s Kc Kd 5h 8c Qs][4h]
freddyf: checks
R_Diamond: bets $2
freddyf: folds
Returned uncalled bets $2 to R_Diamond
R_Diamond: doesn't show hand
R_Diamond collected $23.75 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot $25 Main pot $23.75 Rake $1.25
Seat 1: Vinc25032 folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Krustyman folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Manace folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 4: R_Diamond collected $23.75
Seat 5: Burger005 folded on the 6th Street
Seat 6: freddyf folded on the River
Seat 7: Veda10022 folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Del-UK folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
****HAND ENDS****

Re: Stud variance :(
 

First, no one ever puts you on rolled trips because they are so rare. So jamming early isnt necessarily bad, and books dont take into account action around you. They may seem cut and dry as far as limping, and waiting for big bet to raise etc, but its not that easy.

If I act early, then I will limp usually.

If I act late and there are 2-3 limpers, I will complete and try and build a big pot and tie people to it.

If someone raises early and gets at least one more caller, I will reraise to build the pot.

Far too many people slow play rolled trips, when it is correct to raise and build a pot. This will also cause other players to make mistakes like bricking a 3 flush on 4th street, but continuing to call because they have invested a decent amount.

My take is to build the pot up early and make people chase crappy draws, or with small pairs.

If you dont raise early, by 5th when you decide to try a reraise, no one has really anything invested and they might just fold without having put more than 1BB in.

Also when Im running bad, I jam away. This way I have no excuse for losing and it gets my confidence up even if its a small pot. A pot won, is a pot won.

Re: Stud variance :(
 

Mr Diamond what exactly do you want from the Forum??? Down swings can last 30,000 hands. You lose and win from the fish, and hope to break even with the solid players. From the sound of it you don't know the difference between the solid players and fish. You sound confused and appear to be a fish, who just doesn't know it yet. What are your stats?

Re: Stud variance :(
 

if everyone plays every hand against you, you will make alot of money.

Re: Stud variance :(
 

[ QUOTE ]
Down swings can last 30,000 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Poker CPA, I haven't come across that statistic in any of my readings. But if you are correct, then I apologize for this whole thread. O_o

Re: Stud variance :(
 

I think it's the same phenomenom in stud as for hold'em, if you have been loosing, you start to feel bad and even play bad, you may not even notice it, but things affect us unconsiously, and when you are happy you usually wins and play better, I think when one of those days comes when nothing works, just take the day off and do something that will cheer you up, and come back fresh, it's no point of trying to get even quickly, you just loose more.

Re: Stud variance :(
 

Isn't there a BBV forum for this?

Re: Stud variance :(
 

Or perhaps the GA forum.