NHL wagers I
 

I've expanded my soccer betting system to include hockey. I don't remember the last time I watched an NHL game, let alone any hockey game, though I do enjoy it when I watch. Keep that in mind.

Other than that, this is completely untested and might suck majorly. I mostly did this for totals, but I'm running the spreads through it too just to be safe.

2-6-07
New York Rangers +1.5 -250

2-7-07
Atlanta +1.5 -255 versus Buffalo
Pittsburgh +1.5 -260 versus Nashville
Minnesota +1.5 -215 at Dallas
Los Angeles +1.5 -130 at Tampa Bay
New York Rangers +1.5 -175 at New Jersey
St. Louis +1.5 -255 versus Toronto
Chicago +1.5 -115 at Calgary

Columbus/Phoenix U6 -110
Pittsburgh/Nashville U6.5 -110
Colorado/Florida U6.5 -120

Good luck!

Re: NHL wagers I
 

laying that much juice in today's NHL usually isn't a good idea. Teams are liable to shut down on any given game, but best of luck anyway.

where are you betting these BTW?

Re: NHL wagers I
 

Thanks, I'll be learning with everyone here whether it'll work or not. I've got all of my money in BetCRIS for now so that's where they're all going to be from.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

Detroit 4 - 3 NY Rangers (<font color="green">WIN</font>)

Against the spread: <font color="green">1</font> - <font color="blue">0 </font>-<font color="red"> 0</font>, +0.40u
Over/under: <font color="green">0</font> - <font color="blue">0 </font>-<font color="red"> 0</font>, +0.00u
+0.40u

Re: NHL wagers I
 

Glancing at your card full of +1.5s and knowing where are you coming from (soccer), I think you should reconsider.
In the close game endgame, scoring in ice-hockey changes much more than in soccer because of empty net goals. Your system does not seem to be adjusted to this.
Totals should be fine and I am following on those.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

Don't worry, I'm just tracking the spread bets for now just to see if there's anything there. I've got no delusions and right now I'm just assuming that the totals bets are good (or will be with some slight tweaking). Best of luck on those.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

I was going to ask you if you thought your system would work for those random Euro hockey leagues they had on Pinny back in the day, but never got around to it.

imo +1.5 lines are a good place to find value. i have no actual data to back that up, though.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

[ QUOTE ]
2-7-07
Atlanta +1.5 -255 versus Buffalo (<font color="green">WIN</font>)
Pittsburgh +1.5 -260 versus Nashville (<font color="green">WIN</font>)
Minnesota +1.5 -215 at Dallas (<font color="red">LOSS</font>)
Los Angeles +1.5 -130 at Tampa Bay (<font color="green">WIN</font>)
New York Rangers +1.5 -175 at New Jersey (<font color="green">WIN</font>)
St. Louis +1.5 -255 versus Toronto (<font color="green">WIN</font>)
Chicago +1.5 -115 at Calgary (<font color="green">WIN</font>)
---------------------------------
Columbus/Phoenix U6 -110 (<font color="green">WIN</font>)
Pittsburgh/Nashville U6.5 -110 (<font color="green">WIN</font>)
Colorado/Florida U6.5 -120 (<font color="red">LOSS</font>)

[/ QUOTE ]

Against the spread: <font color="green">7</font> - <font color="blue">0</font> - <font color="red">1</font>, +2.78u
Over/under: <font color="green">2</font> - <font color="blue">0</font> - <font color="red">1</font>, +0.80u
+3.58u

I like the totals bets and I feel I lucked into a couple of the spreads (especially Chicago/Calgary). I think you guys might be underestimating the +1.5, it seems huge but I don't follow the game anywhere at your level so who knows. I do know however that lines like +1.5 are difficult for me to cap in soccer because my system overestimates the dogs. Here though, the +1.5 is much closer to the +0.5 in soccer because of the shootout/OT. So often teams +0.5 are money in soccer. Then again, I'm not sober right now.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

2-7-07
Phoenix +1.5 -120 at Detroit
Chicago +1.5 -140 at Vancouver

Philadelphia/NY Islanders U6 +110

Edit: Changed -110 to +110. Knew something looked wrong.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

The problem I see is that you basically have to go 7-1 every night to show a profit. One bad night will totally wipe out your profits. Not to mention it's going to take a much bigger sample to know if it's a long term winner because you're 'suppossed' to win these games and even being something like 80-20 could be just variance while if you were 80-20 on a 50-50 type of bet you can be pretty confident that you're a winner.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

No way is it 7-1, but I know what you're saying. I would imagine something around 70% is winning or at least breakeven, I'm not sure exactly. I think that's definitely possible though by no means am I expecting it or really confident it will happen.

The other part I think is a very real concern and I'm going to grab myself a bigger sample size before I actually start placing the bets.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

bets like this:

St. Louis +1.5 -255 versus Toronto (WIN)
Chicago +1.5 -115 at Calgary

Don't have much value long term IMO.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

We'll see. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] What specifically about those two don't you like? I'm learning along with everyone here.

2-8-07
Columbus +1.5 -210 versus Calgary
Philadelphia +1.5 -210 versus Pittsburgh
Boston +1.5 -260 versus Carolina
NY Islanders +1.5 -155 at New Jersey
St. Louis +1.5 -185 versus Detroit

Washington/Los Angeles U6.5 +100
Pittsburgh/Philadelphia U6.5 -110
Boston/Carolina U6.5 -110
Nashville/Toronto O5.5 -115
Colorado/Atlanta U6.5 -105

Re: NHL wagers I
 

how does everyone feel about this one?

SJ vs Anaheim O5.5(-110)

Re: NHL wagers I
 

I know nothing about over/unders and have no idea how people pick them.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

[ QUOTE ]
how does everyone feel about this one?

SJ vs Anaheim O5.5(-110)

[/ QUOTE ]
My numbers spit out both the over and under as very marginally -EV.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

Ok, I will go down your list for tomorrow's games and give you my opinion. (not the over/under as I am clueless)

2-8-07
Columbus +1.5 -210 versus Calgary <font color="red"> Cal is hot, Clb sucks </font>
Philadelphia +1.5 -210 versus Pittsburgh <font color="red"> Ok, worst bet in the bunch, Pit is the hottest team in the whole league and Phi is by far the worst team in the whole league. 2.5 goals may not be enough for this one, 3.5 maybe. </font>
Boston +1.5 -260 versus Carolina <font color="red">the 1.5 is ok here but you have to lay -260 to get it, yuck. </font>
NY Islanders +1.5 -155 at New Jersey <font color="red">NJ is my team, they win by 3 [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] </font>
St. Louis +1.5 -185 versus Detroit
<font color="red"> again, one of the best temas vs one of the worst, I hate taking the worse teams at such - odds even with the 1.5 goal cushion.</font>

Just from me watching all year, it often seems the better teams win by more than a goal a good amount of the time. You are laying such bad odds with these bets that I just don't see how it will be profitable. Hockey is a lot different than soccer in that 1.5 goals vs 2 teams (one significantly better than the other) is not that much IMO.

This is reinforced by watching the odd game lately and seeing how the better teams dominate the games more often than not and winning 4-1 or 5-2 is not a fluke.

That said, obviously keep track of the picks and keep me updated on how the system is working but I just don't see how it will even break even for you, nevermind make some decent $$$.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

Thanks for all of that, I do appreciate it. It's virtually no extra work for me to record the spread bets and see how they'd do since I'm already running numbers for the totals, otherwise I probably wouldn't bother. I am really curious how they'll do though.

BTW, haven't seen your NHL thread for a few days. Taking a break?

Re: NHL wagers I
 

Yeah, basically have just followed 1969's 1st period picks sometimes lately, so nothing new to my updates.

I will put up a new Feb NHL post later this week sometime if I can find some games to bet.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

are you not doing moneylines?

Re: NHL wagers I
 

no, not since the last update, but I will start again later this week.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

i intended to direct that at new0001

Re: NHL wagers I
 

Oh I didn't catch that either. I'm holding off on those for now because I honestly don't know if I need to tweak the system more to deal with OT/SO. I'll get to it eventually.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

ahh, well to address your comment that the +1.5 lines have value...I just don't see the value in them in hockey the majority of the time. It is good that new0001 will keep track for a while to see though....

Re: NHL wagers I
 

All I can say is look at it like someone that doesn't know what they are doing would look at it. Would they rather lay a lot of juice on worse team or actually get big + odds on the better team? Would they rather lay -300 on Detroit or -111 on the puck line? Giving up a goal is not a big deal to them.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

you are confusing me. Are you agreeing with me?

Re: NHL wagers I
 

no

Re: NHL wagers I
 

giving up a goal is not a big deal to who? det or the guy betting?

Re: NHL wagers I
 

laying the extra goal is not a big deal to the squaretard betting.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

ahh, i got it now.

I will keep tuned to the thread to see the results in the last couple months of the NHL season.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

[ QUOTE ]
laying the extra goal is not a big deal to the squaretard betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

to counter that squares also don't mind laying huge juice either.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

imo (like all of this) that's true for big favorites, but i don't think that's the case for dogs at +1.5

i'd also say they'd see the -300 and -111 in the detroit example and say "sweet I'll get a better price laying 1.5 goals, Detroit is so awesome they will blow them out anyway".

Re: NHL wagers I
 

IMO and this is based on the squares that I know, all they really want to do is win the game. They just think as long as my team wins the game it didn't matter if I layed -110 or -1000 since I won the same amount.

based on that I would think that squares love the +1.5 option since it means they will most likely win.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

alright, agree to disagree, I don't care to argue about it. but it would take a lot to persuade me that squares properly appreciate the value of a goal.

i'm curious if either of you have the same opinion for baseball.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

I know nothing about baseball, hockey is all I know.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

the concept should be the same.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

[ QUOTE ]
the concept should be the same.

[/ QUOTE ]

are u saying that 1 goal in hockey is worth the same amount as 1 run in baseball?

I personally don't mind playing the -1.5 in hockey, mostly because of the empty net chance, which is the same reason why I never play the +1.5. I've never handicapped baseball so I can't comment on that.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the concept should be the same.

[/ QUOTE ]

are u saying that 1 goal in hockey is worth the same amount as 1 run in baseball?

[/ QUOTE ]

no

Re: NHL wagers I
 

Philadelphia 0 - 2 NY Islanders (<font color="green">WIN</font>)
Detroit 4 - 2 Phoenix (<font color="red">LOSS</font>)

3-1, +1.9u o/u.
7-2, +1.78u ATS.

One last game tonight, I probably won't get to post the results until tomorrow.

Re: NHL wagers I
 

[ QUOTE ]
alright, agree to disagree, I don't care to argue about it. but it would take a lot to persuade me that squares properly appreciate the value of a goal.

i'm curious if either of you have the same opinion for baseball.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're saying here that a random square could rather take Detroit -1.5 getting +200 rather than take the moneyline at -200, or whatever it ends up being, right? Especially playing against a bad team, the 1.5 goals seems like nothing.

Edit: Also, Chicago 3 - 0 Vancouver (<font color="green">WIN</font>)