HSNL prop bet
 

currently we're an hour and thirty minutes into a 5 hour prop bet.

The bet is this:

a HSNL player (10/20 regular) has to play no more than 5 tables of .5/1 6 max on FT. If at any time he is up $400, he wins $400. If he fails to reach the target, he owes the $400. He has 5 hours to play.

Who's got the best side of the bet? Realize that the participant is obviously drinking, and not going to take it all that seriously. Furthermore, the games are significantly tougher than you'd imagine a .5/1 game being. Most of the opponents won't donk off a stack with any QJ,KJ type top pair hand.

What's the EV for all participants?

This all started because I found out I had $48 in my FT account and ran it up to 2k. I decided I'd run it up to 10k but I'm having problems at the low stakes. Obviously I'm thinking I'm making a grand a day and my roommates are snickering at me when I complain about the games.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

I dont think its possible to win 4(four) buyins multitabling 6max .5/1NL in just 5(five) hours, sorry but nobody is going to go for this bet.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

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currently we're an hour and thirty minutes into a 5 hour prop bet.

The bet is this:

a HSNL player (10/20 regular) has to play no more than 5 tables of .5/1 6 max on FT. If at any time he is up $400, he wins $400. If he fails to reach the target, he owes the $400. He has 5 hours to play.

Who's got the best side of the bet? Realize that the participant is obviously drinking, and not going to take it all that seriously. Furthermore, the games are significantly tougher than you'd imagine a .5/1 game being. Most of the opponents won't donk off a stack with any QJ,KJ type top pair hand.

What's the EV for all participants?

This all started because I found out I had $48 in my FT account and ran it up to 2k. I decided I'd run it up to 10k but I'm having problems at the low stakes. Obviously I'm thinking I'm making a grand a day and my roommates are snickering at me when I complain about the games.

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You have way the best of it.

Let's say his winrate is 10 Poker Tracker Big Blinds (PTBB) per 100 hands. This means 20 BBs, which is $20. He can play 5 tables at most, so let's say he play 350 hands per hour. That means his expected profit in one hour of play is $70, and $350 for his full 5 hours. Of course, I was very generous to assume a win rate as high as 10 PTBB and a hands played rate of 350/hour.

Now obviously variance means he definitely could win $400 or more in 5 hours, but I think it's clear that his chances are less than 50%.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

P-Oak,

Ill bet any amount you want (4k minimum-25k max) that I can do this. Ill even give you even money.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

Worst bet ever. Any competent HSNL player can easily do this without even focusing.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

Uhm, is it only me or does those calculations that Post-Oak presented do seem reasonable, if so I just can't see how you can expect to run at 10ptbb for 5 hours, I just don't get what you are saying ahnuld, how this is "easily doable without even concentrating", sounds like total BS to me.

Obviously this is doable, just can't figure out how you can ever EXPECT to do it more than 50%.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

I have 4k swings at 1000$ nl every day, and I never play more than 4 hours a day, normally 8 tabling. I dont need to finish up that amount after 4 hours, just hit it once. Im sure ill catch some sort of + variance by sheer fluke.

Ill prop bet it myself with you MDMA if you want, although I admit it will be hard to verify and basically if we do make a bet you would just have to trust my honest.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

Uh, you do realize that the fact that variance causes you to swing doesn't really make THAT big of a difference? You could just as well start out losing as winning and then all those swings up and down will still obviously not get you ahead by 400. Those 4k swings you are talking about doesn't necessarily mean you are at +4k all too often.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

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Uhm, is it only me or does those calculations that Post-Oak presented do seem reasonable, if so I just can't see how you can expect to run at 10ptbb for 5 hours, I just don't get what you are saying ahnuld, how this is "easily doable without even concentrating", sounds like total BS to me.

Obviously this is doable, just can't figure out how you can ever EXPECT to do it more than 50%.

[/ QUOTE ] If the bet is for enough money it makes sense to alter your play to increase variance after X hours if you are not close to your goal. And you can quit whenver you reach it. I think a good strategy for this bet and an excellent player should put the chances over 50%.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

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Uh, you do realize that the fact that variance causes you to swing doesn't really make THAT big of a difference? You could just as well start out losing as winning and then all those swings up and down will still obviously not get you ahead by 400. Those 4k swings you are talking about doesn't necessarily mean you are at +4k all too often.

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Variance helps you're bet nicely here. You can control the variance when and if you need to. If you just played in the highest variance style w/ 0EV in the game and good timing of when to quit it's +EV for the bet.

Think of just doing constant $50 coinflips for 5 hours on w/ this bet, if i make $400 i quit and win the bet, if i drop below -$400 (equal chance on the other side of the situation) then i just continue. So i never 'bottom out'.

If you put a bottom limit on at which point i have to quit then variance doesn't matter.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

Im not saying this cant be done, in fact I would lean towards thinking it could be done maybe 75% of the time by a good player, but comparing 4 buy-in swings playing $5/$10 and 4 buy-in swings playing .5/$1 is a not a good idea.

I have much much bigger swings at 5/10 than I do at any lower stakes.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

i agree with ahnuld, i could do this with my eyes closed

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

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Uh, you do realize that the fact that variance causes you to swing doesn't really make THAT big of a difference? You could just as well start out losing as winning and then all those swings up and down will still obviously not get you ahead by 400. Those 4k swings you are talking about doesn't necessarily mean you are at +4k all too often.

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Once you're up over 4 buy-ins (or 5 buy-ins if you want to be safe), just play premium hands and don't play for stacks until you have the nuts.

Then you would win the prop bet.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

Uncatchablefish: Of course the fact that we only need to be up $400 at one point helps our bet, but I really doubt it's enough to make up for the sheer amount of money you'd need to be up at some point over 50% of the time.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

Slowhabit: You do realize there is a TIME FACTOR as well, right?

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

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Slowhabit: You do realize there is a TIME FACTOR as well, right?

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Yes, I know there's a time factor.

Which is why I added "5 buy-ins to be safe."

And if you really want to angle shoot, run the timer down every time it's your turn to act. This works best on Stars where they give you minutes to make a decision after playing on a table for a while.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

Bah, you didn't even get that the bet would finish as soon as he was up 400, so theres no need for any 5 buyins to be safe or to "draw out on time". If this was the case, the bet would just bet stipulated as "be up at least 400 after 5 hours as passed", and it was not.

I just assumed you actually grasped that part and that you somehow thought playing extremely nitty would make the challenge easier, now I see that you did not.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

You guys bring up some good points. I was aware that I wasn't able to calculate the exact % chance of succes given my assumptions plus an assumed standard deviation, because I wouldn't know how to do the math. In other words, I wasn't sure how much of an effect the variance would have over the 5 hour period.

So the point that he can quit anytime he hits the $400 is mark is well taken. The idea that he can up his variance in case of emergency (time running out or he's down big) is also a good one.

However, I still disagree that it can be done with your "eyes closed".

I am no longer convinced it is +EV for 4 buyins. What if we said $550 instead of $400? I would then be interested in betting. Since you guys think $400 is so easy, I assume you would be willing to consider 5.5 buy-ins instead.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

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I am no longer convinced it is +EV for 4 buyins. What if we said $550 instead of $400? I would then be interested in betting. Since you guys think $400 is so easy, I assume you would be willing to consider 5.5 buy-ins instead.

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Re: HSNL prop bet
 

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Uncatchablefish: Of course the fact that we only need to be up $400 at one point helps our bet, but I really doubt it's enough to make up for the sheer amount of money you'd need to be up at some point over 50% of the time.

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MDMA,

Ill offer you the same bet I offered the OP. Pm if interested.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

I'm pretty sure this is huge +EV for the player. Post-Oak's calculations are pertinent to the chance he's up >400 at the end. The problem under consideration is basically like a risk of ruin problem in reverse; he just has to hit +400 once. Somebody better at stat (or less stoned) than me could probably do the calcs. Lets assume ev 5PTBB/100 (very very conservative for a 10/20 player at .5/1) stdev 55PTBB/100 (this is my actual stat, in bigger games, according to PT, does this sound about right?), 70 hands/tablehour = 1750 hands.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

There are other factors to consider. Ideally I think you'd play ultra tight at the start of the match, and just hope the cards go your way to get to 4 buyins. If they haven't by the very end, I'd assume you'd have a deep stack on one of the tables, so you could just push every hand against another deep stack and you might make up for it.

I think the bet is +EV for smaller amounts of money, because the urge to donk it off at the lower stakes will be there for most high limit players.

Last night my roommate got stuck $800 and gave up about 3 hours into it, figuring he'd lose more than the $400 in pushing to try to get it back. Trust me when I say this was the most entertaining poker bet I've ever had. Trash talking and cheering every turn of the card was a riot. We then proceeded to play $100 heads up freezeouts where the loser had to take a shot of the winner's choice, proceeded by high stakes beer pong.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

I'd take this bet for anywhere from $10k-40k

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

I'd take this bet for anywhere from $10-40

leaning toward $40.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

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Ill bet any amount you want (4k minimum-25k max) that I can do this


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Worst bet ever. Any competent HSNL player can easily do this without even focusing.


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Im sure ill catch some sort of + variance by sheer fluke.


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i agree with ahnuld, i could do this with my eyes closed


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I'm pretty sure this is huge +EV for the player.


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I'd take this bet for anywhere from $10k-40k


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No takers at $550? I guess you guys are just given to hyperbole.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

I'm pretty sure I take for 550. Can I do some math in the morning and get back to you?

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

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I'm pretty sure I take for 550. Can I do some math in the morning and get back to you?

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OK, but then you can't expect to hold me to automatically accepting. In other words, I may have some new parameters by morning.

It would be kind of scary if you came back in the morning itching to bet, when you haven't even shown a willingness to gamble on a proposition which you estimate to be ++EV, but are not 100% sure.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

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I'm pretty sure I take for 550. Can I do some math in the morning and get back to you?

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OK, but then you can't expect to hold me to automatically accepting. In other words, I may have some new parameters by morning.

It would be kind of scary if you came back in the morning itching to bet, when you haven't even shown a willingness to gamble on a proposition which you estimate to be ++EV, but are not 100% sure.

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perfectly fair :-)

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

I won't play but I will be up for taking the player for a few hundred if this goes down with a decent player.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

My advice is to stay away from these 'prop' bets and to focus on playing cards. Same goes for the table games. You have to develop a tunnel vision and not be tempted by them. All the best players know this. When you walk into the casino head on straight past these tables and don't be tempted by sports betting either.

I remember in the 1970s a man called Little Red Ashey who was a helluva player back then. But he got into Sports betting and that did for him. Same goes with Stu Ungar who was the greatest cards player who ever lived. he died without a dollar to his name.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

I think its a good bet for whoever is playing

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

I think almost all HSNL'ers would be big favourite in that bet.
I think even I would be favourite there. You guys dont realize how soft 100NL is.

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Most of the opponents won't donk off a stack with any QJ,KJ type top pair hand.


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Seriously wtf. I am pretty sure most opponents call all the way down with those hands at 400NL.

Re: HSNL prop bet
 

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I think almost all HSNL'ers would be big favourite in that bet.
I think even I would be favourite there. You guys dont realize how soft 100NL is.

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Most of the opponents won't donk off a stack with any QJ,KJ type top pair hand.


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Seriously wtf. I am pretty sure most opponents call all the way down with those hands at 400NL.

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All I can say is that you'd be incredibly surprised at how nitty the games are. You could probably LAG it up and take down a ton of small pots and get there, but if you tried to set farm your way there you'd find it harder than you might think.

Furthermore, the spirit of the bet kinda involves just randomly choosing your tables. If you were playing for large sums of money you could easily datamine for a couple of days and I'm sure it would be a piece of cake if you handpicked your tables.