Meh spot
 

Stars $150

Not near the $$$, maybe 200ish left, I forget.

BB=400

UTG Big Stack (32K) opens for 1200 UTG

Folded to me in BB w/ 99 and 6200 after posting.

UTG got his stack by playing good hands in the right spots. He was on my right at a different table, never did anything out of line, and he never saw me do anything particularly dumb (for a change)

I have been particularly tight this tourney. UTG has seen me get chips by shoving over a couple of PF raises by an active big stack at a previous table, getting the pots PF, and I have opened in LP about once an orbit. I have not been in a pot that went past the flop since sitting with UTG at this or the other table.

I've gone through a few scenarios on what to do in this spot with these stacks and thought I post to get others' ideas.

If you are going to post, please post actions with reasoning PF and on the flop (if your intention is to see one).

Please don't just post "fold", "call and play poker" or "push" without a reason.

I am interested in seeing others thoughts on their plans with this hand in this spot, I am not interested in someone just telling me to push, fold, or call and play poker.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Meh spot
 

What kind of range do you put UTG on? Is he the type to raise any pair from UTG with the big stack? Would he open limp pairs smaller than 9s?

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]

What kind of range do you put UTG on? Is he the type to raise any pair from UTG with the big stack? Would he open limp pairs smaller than 9s?

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't seen anyone open limp for quite a while so his bet could mean a lot of things, but he is UTG and I have not seem him splash around or get out of line up to this time.

I had a range for him, but I am more interested in your range and plan given the description (you have about as much info as me at this point)

Also,

COCKTAILS!!!!!!!!

Re: Meh spot
 

Well, this is a tough spot. Just calling isn't an option with your stack.

If he's a solid player he knows that he needs a real hand to raise here, but also knows it's a good spot to steal from.

I can't make the decision without seeing him play more. There are times when I'd lay this down.

With the info at hand, I'd say Push<Fold<Call.

Re: Meh spot
 

I don't like pushing preflop because I don't think that you ever get called by a hand that you dominate. It also sounds like you don't think he is going to just be raising on a steal here with a marginal hand, so he probably is calling with most of his range.


Also,

If you had 52s, I'd call and flop the wheel + FD.

Re: Meh spot
 

Hey Woodguy,

This is for sure on of those meh situations. I think it was Sossman (wheres he at anyways) that said never push 99 over a (normal) UTG Raiser.

Well anyways, If he is tight I think His UTG is AQo AKS, possible KQs 99-AA. I really don't see alot of tightys raiseing utg with less than that. A few problems with this hand.

1. Your stack size really makes this a trouble hand, because ideally you would like to call here and bet out about 2000-2400 on a flop with J high or under. But, doing so would leave you with a less than desirable chip stack, but still playable, if he comes over you on the flop.

2. He has enough chips that I don't think he will fold to your push. He will still be in excellent shape if he losses and is more than likly ready to gambol alittle with some one of your stack size.

Its one of those icky spots that I think you can justify a fold, but I would probly call and lead. Hoping he is missed his AK AQ hand. I sure that I would feel that I just leaked off to many chips after he pushes over my flop lead also.

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like pushing preflop because I don't think that you ever get called by a hand that you dominate. It also sounds like you don't think he is going to just be raising on a steal here with a marginal hand, so he probably is calling with most of his range.


Also,

If you had 52s, I'd call and flop the wheel + FD.

[/ QUOTE ]

AAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH H!

Re: Meh spot
 

Fold.

And I am not giving you a reason because I am not your monkey.

Re: Meh spot
 

sorry if this is too brief, but i have no problem with a shove

his range is going to be, at its tightest, 66+/AQ/KQ, with a calling range of 88+/AK, again at its tightest.

with the antes i'm fairly certain this is +EV

Re: Meh spot
 

I really don't think a good, tight UTG raiser is folding to a push from you at this point with his range + stack so your FE is close to 0 (not quite but I wouldn't rate it higher than 10% including aggressive semi-steal raises on his part). I might be putting him too tight but 88+, AK/AQs seems reasonable, maybe even AJs, so obviously without even pokerstoving it you aren't in great shape. And yet you're looking at a pretty good hand with a stack size that is starting to dwindle...How are you with regards to the average stack? That would probably affect my decision a little bit, because if there were a lot of stacks around my size I might wait and try to attack them, whereas if I was short I think my plan would be stop and go here. Once the flop comes, you will have the FE that you sorely need and you might get him to lay down a better hand on the right flops, not allowing him to see all 5 cards (which is pretty much the principal of the stop and go as far as I understand). This seems to be a good plan of action to me, with folding being my 2nd option. I don't love a push here since I'd like to be able to get him to lay down AK-AQ or TT/JJ after a favorable flop which he will never lay down PF.

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]

1. Your stack size really makes this a trouble hand, because ideally you would like to call here and bet out about 2000-2400 on a flop with J high or under. But, doing so would leave you with a less than desirable chip stack, but still playable, if he comes over you on the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

I hate this. Why do you think this is a good line against UTGs range? We are potentially going to invest 3200 of our remaining 6200 and then fold?

If this is a profitable with 9s, its a profitable line with ATC.

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

1. Your stack size really makes this a trouble hand, because ideally you would like to call here and bet out about 2000-2400 on a flop with J high or under. But, doing so would leave you with a less than desirable chip stack, but still playable, if he comes over you on the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

I hate this. Why do you think this is a good line against UTGs range? We are potentially going to invest 3200 of our remaining 6200 and then fold?

If this is a profitable with 9s, its a profitable line with ATC.

[/ QUOTE ]


The Stack size is why It makes it a bad or a trouble hand to play it this way. But if You had Equal stacks I would take this line. I hate this line myself in this situation as I pointed out, but I really don't care for a push here either. I would rather probly just let it go.

Re: Meh spot
 

It sounds like the read makes it a fold. It's close, though. I think TT's pretty clear shove and 88 is a pretty clear fold.

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
sorry if this is too brief, but i have no problem with a shove

his range is going to be, at its tightest, 66+/AQ/KQ, with a calling range of 88+/AK, again at its tightest.

with the antes i'm fairly certain this is +EV

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with evg. Shoving is slightly +EV at worst, possibly very +EV. Therefore, folding and the associated 0 EV is clearly out unless some weird table dynamic is going on that you haven't told us about. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Calling and playing a flop only makes sense if we believe villain we will frequently make an error when we push the flop.

EITHER

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Calling when behind (e.g. AK on 752 flop)
[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Folding when ahead (e.g. QT on AT7 or even J9 on J33)

OR

If villain's postflop play will allow us to play perfectly. The most common example of this is a villain who will check behind when he hits while pushing when he whiffs. In this case, you would check any flop (obviously [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]).

Given your read on opponent, these errors seem unlikely so pushing is probably best.

Very nice hand,
Che

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think it was Sossman (wheres he at anyways) that said never push 99 over a (normal) UTG Raiser.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I've ever said 'never' do anything.

That being said, I think this is one of those grumbling folds. I can't imagine jamming is very bad from an EV perspective. I would want a better read and more control over my opponent to call and play a flop (not to say that I never would).

There's my MTT post for the year.

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
And I am not giving you a reason because I am not your monkey.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn you!

Be my monkey!

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you had 52s, I'd call and flop the wheel + FD.

[/ QUOTE ]

I need to be on the button and raising over you and Mr. Tim Caum for this amazingly profitable move to work.

My hand isn't nearly as strong here as it was there....

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
There's my MTT post for the year.

[/ QUOTE ]

I feel honored sir.

Hope you are finding time to play.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]

1. Your stack size really makes this a trouble hand, because ideally you would like to call here and bet out about 2000-2400 on a flop with J high or under. But, doing so would leave you with a less than desirable chip stack, but still playable, if he comes over you on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bleh. If you call I think your options are check raising all in or check folding. Leading is a spew, although I'm not convinced calling PF is a spew, but it might me.

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think my plan would be stop and go here. Once the flop comes, you will have the FE that you sorely need and you might get him to lay down a better hand on the right flops, not allowing him to see all 5 cards (which is pretty much the principal of the stop and go as far as I understand).

[/ QUOTE ]

My hand is too strong to SnG and I usually end up making UTG play perfect. fnurt has a great thread recently about that exactly, its worth a read.

Also, the stack sizes are all wrong for an SnG

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]

It sounds like the read makes it a fold. It's close, though. I think TT's pretty clear shove and 88 is a pretty clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you have AT in his range but not A9, or have 99 in his calling range, but not 77 or 88?

I think I agree with you, but would like to know why you are making a disctinction between TT and 99 here.

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Therefore, folding and the associated 0 EV is clearly out unless some weird table dynamic is going on that you haven't told us about

[/ QUOTE ]

I know its tough to believe, but I really haven't been an idiot so far in this tourney. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'm rediscovering my inner TAG since I realized that pushing 92o over a big stack open in LP is actually a TAG move and not a LAG move.


[ QUOTE ]


I agree with evg. Shoving is slightly +EV at worst, possibly very +EV. Therefore, folding and the associated 0 EV is clearly out unless some weird table dynamic is going on that you haven't told us about.

Calling and playing a flop only makes sense if we believe villain we will frequently make an error when we push the flop.

EITHER

Calling when behind (e.g. AK on 752 flop)
Folding when ahead (e.g. QT on AT7 or even J9 on J33)

OR

If villain's postflop play will allow us to play perfectly. The most common example of this is a villain who will check behind when he hits while pushing when he whiffs. In this case, you would check any flop (obviously ).

Given your read on opponent, these errors seem unlikely so pushing is probably best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very nice sir.

Thanks,
Woodguy

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think my plan would be stop and go here. Once the flop comes, you will have the FE that you sorely need and you might get him to lay down a better hand on the right flops, not allowing him to see all 5 cards (which is pretty much the principal of the stop and go as far as I understand).

[/ QUOTE ]

My hand is too strong to SnG and I usually end up making UTG play perfect. fnurt has a great thread recently about that exactly, its worth a read.

Also, the stack sizes are all wrong for an SnG

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with your last comment that stack sizes are no good. However, I was assigning the raiser an unrealistically tight range, where he would call any push. In this situation you could actually get him to lay down incorrectly (TT on AQx board or similar) or at least prevent overcards from catching on you (AK on board of Jxx). However, given the stack sizes, the latter situation is not too likely. Giving the raiser a more realistic, non super-nit range, I think a shove is the best play. Folding seems pretty weak, 99 might be your best hand for a while.

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

My hand is too strong to SnG and I usually end up making UTG play perfect. fnurt has a great thread recently about that exactly, its worth a read.

Also, the stack sizes are all wrong for an SnG

[/ QUOTE ]

In this situation you could actually get him to lay down incorrectly (TT on AQx board or similar)

[/ QUOTE ]

Fnurt showed why this is wrong (mostly because it's unlikely). So just push your chips in I think, you are often behind or slightly ahead of a flip but sometimes you are better than that. I also don't know if 88 is a clear fold as an earler poster implied but it does become murkier since that makes one less pair you beat and one more that beats you within his range.

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think my plan would be stop and go here. Once the flop comes, you will have the FE that you sorely need and you might get him to lay down a better hand on the right flops, not allowing him to see all 5 cards (which is pretty much the principal of the stop and go as far as I understand).

[/ QUOTE ]

My hand is too strong to SnG and I usually end up making UTG play perfect. fnurt has a great thread recently about that exactly, its worth a read.

Also, the stack sizes are all wrong for an SnG

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with your last comment that stack sizes are no good. However, I was assigning the raiser an unrealistically tight range, where he would call any push. In this situation you could actually get him to lay down incorrectly (TT on AQx board or similar) or at least prevent overcards from catching on you (AK on board of Jxx). However, given the stack sizes, the latter situation is not too likely. Giving the raiser a more realistic, non super-nit range, I think a shove is the best play. Folding seems pretty weak, 99 might be your best hand for a while.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are way way lost here.

if a stop-n-go is +EV here, then it is because it would be +EV to stop-n-go with any two cards here. and you'd need some ridiculous read on his postflop play to justify calling here with any plans when you are conceding you are behind his range. it has nothing to do with stack sizes.

and your comment about 99 being the best you see in a while is devoid of meaning, logic, or common sense.

soory.

Re: Meh spot
 

meh, I usually don't shove. I hate shoving into UTG raisers in general, and you're getting called this time by hands that might find folds elsewhere, so I wouldn't bother.

call and check/something most flops, I'm sure you know which ones and where.

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think my plan would be stop and go here. Once the flop comes, you will have the FE that you sorely need and you might get him to lay down a better hand on the right flops, not allowing him to see all 5 cards (which is pretty much the principal of the stop and go as far as I understand).

[/ QUOTE ]

My hand is too strong to SnG and I usually end up making UTG play perfect. fnurt has a great thread recently about that exactly, its worth a read.

Also, the stack sizes are all wrong for an SnG

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with your last comment that stack sizes are no good. However, I was assigning the raiser an unrealistically tight range, where he would call any push. In this situation you could actually get him to lay down incorrectly (TT on AQx board or similar) or at least prevent overcards from catching on you (AK on board of Jxx). However, given the stack sizes, the latter situation is not too likely. Giving the raiser a more realistic, non super-nit range, I think a shove is the best play. Folding seems pretty weak, 99 might be your best hand for a while.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are way way lost here.

if a stop-n-go is +EV here, then it is because it would be +EV to stop-n-go with any two cards here. and you'd need some ridiculous read on his postflop play to justify calling here with any plans when you are conceding you are behind his range. it has nothing to do with stack sizes.

and your comment about 99 being the best you see in a while is devoid of meaning, logic, or common sense.

soory.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually after I posted this, I took a shower and thought it over and realized that my logic was exactly that - Stop and go would be +EV with any 2. And I realized that 1) that doesn't make any sense and 2) I am lost in this particular hand. I was hoping you would make a characteristically rude comment to correct me and you did that...sorta. I am still lost on this hand and am just going to read the other posts.

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
call and check/something most flops, I'm sure you know which ones and where.

[/ QUOTE ]


I have very good players telling me to push, fold and call.

I feel better about my own indecision as to the best line.

Re: Meh spot
 

I think I call 800 more and get to the flop. I'm checking just about any flop here assuming he is c-betting regardless. If the board is low I'm c-raising his bet, high cards and I'm probably gone. If the nine hits I get obviously get paid--I probably bet that flop assuming I'm well disguised.

Re: Meh spot
 

lol

Re: Meh spot
 

with your relatively small stack, i wonder if, even if this play wasnt +cEV, it would still be worth shoving. are you really going to find a better spot than this in the next few orbits while you still have fold equity?

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

It sounds like the read makes it a fold. It's close, though. I think TT's pretty clear shove and 88 is a pretty clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you have AT in his range but not A9, or have 99 in his calling range, but not 77 or 88?

I think I agree with you, but would like to know why you are making a disctinction between TT and 99 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think 99/TT are around the bottom of his calling range. Also, stuff like this matters when we're talking about slim plays:

pokenum -h tc td - ac kd
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc Td 963044 56.24 741201 43.29 8059 0.47 0.565
Ac Kd 741201 43.29 963044 56.24 8059 0.47 0.435

pokenum -h 9c 9d - ac kd
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9c 9d 935350 54.63 768883 44.90 8071 0.47 0.549
Ac Kd 768883 44.90 935350 54.63 8071 0.47 0.451

I'd give you equity vs. a range, but pokerstove seems to have died.

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

1. Your stack size really makes this a trouble hand, because ideally you would like to call here and bet out about 2000-2400 on a flop with J high or under. But, doing so would leave you with a less than desirable chip stack, but still playable, if he comes over you on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bleh. If you call I think your options are check raising all in or check folding. Leading is a spew, although I'm not convinced calling PF is a spew, but it might me.

[/ QUOTE ]

While your stack size is a little large, calling from the BB and pushing the flop (stop n go) will work for a good portion of his range. If he's a thinking player, he might call loosely by putting you on a stop n go with a pair smaller than yours.

I'm inclined to fold this pf due to being OOP against a range I don't like, but if I play, I'm calling & pushing any non A, non K flop; checking any A, K flop and puking when he bets enough to pot commit me.

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]

with your relatively small stack, i wonder if, even if this play wasnt +cEV, it would still be worth shoving. are you really going to find a better spot than this in the next few orbits while you still have fold equity?

[/ QUOTE ]

Shoving 15BB's over any LP raise in the next 4 hands is going to be very +EV too, lots of fold equity there. I am very comfortable playing smallish stacks and not being in a panic.

I really think that pushing any two over random LP raiser is a better spot than a medium pair against a UTG raise.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]

I'm inclined to fold this pf due to being OOP against a range I don't like, but if I play, I'm calling & pushing any non A, non K flop; checking any A, K flop and puking when he bets enough to pot commit me.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's your plan then c/r all in on non A/K flop is way, way better than open pushing them.

What this line boils down to is putting UTG on two big cards and not a big pair, and if that's the case then pushing PF is better, no?

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'm inclined to fold this pf due to being OOP against a range I don't like, but if I play, I'm calling & pushing any non A, non K flop; checking any A, K flop and puking when he bets enough to pot commit me.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's your plan then c/r all in on non A/K flop is way, way better than open pushing them.

What this line boils down to is putting UTG on two big cards and not a big pair, and if that's the case then pushing PF is better, no?

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Possibly, but any FE generated would be from AK-AJ missing the flop and correctly folding to your push. In this case (rem the stack sizes here) you are pushing, allowing him to fold, and picking up 1500 chips plus another round without having to put $ in the pot. That's not a bad outcome. I'm OK with AK/AQ folding on the flop where they wouldn't fold pf cuz there are 2 more cards coming that can crush us. Statistically we are 3:1 ahead, but its our MTT life and I'll lock in my gain and live to play another hand.

BTW, are you c/calling AI here?

Re: Meh spot
 

Fold in this spot. If UTG has been playing so well and not gotten out of line why gamble? If he's playing the right hands in the right spots then odds are you're flipping or a huge dog it would seem. I can't see anyone doing this with 88 or worse. I like the fold or play the 9's for set value since you'll likely double up off him with such a large stack. I don't like playing this pot against a good opponent. Why not wait and take advantage of a looser opponent with a better hand? It seems risking one's tourney life on 99 against a strong utg raiser could be a major error.

Re: Meh spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm OK with AK/AQ folding on the flop where they wouldn't fold pf cuz there are 2 more cards coming that can crush us. Statistically we are 3:1 ahead, but its our MTT life and I'll lock in my gain and live to play another hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

C'mon, that just gross and you know it.

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, are you c/calling AI here?

[/ QUOTE ]

If i called and he jammed most flop I'd insta call given it would be a fairly large overbet.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Meh spot
 

Sometimes I wonder about just taking a -cEV approach in these situations of calling for set value. Yes, 7/8 times we lose 800 chips and have 5400 instead of 6200, but does that really change our equity in the tournament much (this is not a rhetorical question)? But on the other hand, 1/8 times we pretty much always double through to around 30 big blinds deep in a $162. One of you math guys can hit me over the head for saying this, if you like.

Re: Meh spot
 

I've run some math on this and Noah's intuition is right - jaming TT is clearly +EV, 99 is marginal, and 88 is -EV.

Using a range for Villain of 77+,KQs+,AQs+,AQo+ our 99 is .45 against that range and the pot is paying us 7050 on a 6200 bet - so that is real close to 0ev - ASSUMING that villain calls our push with his entire range. HOWEVER, if we assume that villain only calls with 99+/AK+ (52 of 84 hands) then, although we win the dead money when he folds (32 of 84 hands) we are much further behind when he does calls (99 is .315 against villain's new calling range).

If you do the math (using villain's new calling range)-
(.38 x 2050) + (.62 * .315 * 7050) + (.62 * .685 * -6200) =
chance villain folds & you win the dead money + chance villian calls and you double up + chance villain calls and stacks you...
you actually come up with -477 on the 6200 wager which is quite -EV.

Clearly, IMO, jamming with 99 is not the right play here. It is either a call and evaluate or a fold, and I'm not sure I like playing a medium pair OOP without much room for play ATF. Bottom line is - fold this.