Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

Hi, I was wondering what you guys think the average chance of guessing the exact outcome of a basketball game was if given only 1 try. Would this vary much from college to pro? Also how much variability could you expect depending on who was playing? Thank you for any responses/insight.

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

Anybody? Or to put it another way, what odds would you need to place a bet on an exact score? 50-1? 100-1? 30-1? Thanks

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

I'd offer 175-1 and take 400

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

Thanks. Anyone else want to chime in what they think a fair bet would be?

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

They'd be correlated and evenly distributed, but assuming 20 point equally distributed range for each team, 20x20 = 400 to 1, so I'd guess somewhere in the 300-500 to 1 range.

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

Thanks knicknut, I'm also gonna add a poll so hopefully get a few more responses, thank guys.

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

Does this range increase due to no one ever picking blowouts like 123-74?

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

I know the two of you are interested in this, I simply don't have the time to do the math, but this is what I'd do.

I'd go to goldsheet.com's historical data page and for each game I'd look at the under over and the point spread.
I would assume that this is the most likely outcome, so if the u/o is 200 and the home team are 6 point faves, I'd guess the score at 103-97.

I'd then see how many teams hit the exact score.

Then you should be able to work out the odds of hitting both.
I'd do this for as many seasons as I could before deciding to rip my hair out and never look at those numbers again (been there, done that, gone mad)

Oh, and if this helped, I'd be interested in knowing the result.

Lori

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

Very good idea. I guess excel is going to get a workout.

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

6689 NBA games since 1990 with integer spread and total.

3 of these have been graded push/push.

20030408 TOR MIA -6 172 83 89
20051109 SAS CHA 8 180 94 86
20001104 LAL MEM 9 187 98 89

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

wow

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

[ QUOTE ]
6689 NBA games since 1990 with integer spread and total.

3 of these have been graded push/push.

20030408 TOR MIA -6 172 83 89
20051109 SAS CHA 8 180 94 86
20001104 LAL MEM 9 187 98 89

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks.

I think if anyone has the time, my method would be a way of getting a lot more accurate results because of the inherent unlikelihood of the event, but this is obviously incredibly helpful too.

Lori

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

It's relatively easy to transfer the goldsheet's data into spreadsheet form using macros, and there may even be an easier way than that.

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
6689 NBA games since 1990 with integer spread and total.

3 of these have been graded push/push.

20030408 TOR MIA -6 172 83 89
20051109 SAS CHA 8 180 94 86
20001104 LAL MEM 9 187 98 89

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks.

I think if anyone has the time, my method would be a way of getting a lot more accurate results because of the inherent unlikelihood of the event, but this is obviously incredibly helpful too.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

isn't that what he did?

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
6689 NBA games since 1990 with integer spread and total.

3 of these have been graded push/push.

20030408 TOR MIA -6 172 83 89
20051109 SAS CHA 8 180 94 86
20001104 LAL MEM 9 187 98 89

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks.

I think if anyone has the time, my method would be a way of getting a lot more accurate results because of the inherent unlikelihood of the event, but this is obviously incredibly helpful too.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

isn't that what he did?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would count the times that each team hit, not the times that both hit. Just to increase sample size A LOT.

having a 12k sample of 40-1 shots is a lot better than a 6k sample of 1500-1 shots, even though it's actually just an estimation.

Lori

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

ahh, wise

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

[ QUOTE ]
6689 NBA games since 1990 with integer spread and total.

3 of these have been graded push/push.

20030408 TOR MIA -6 172 83 89
20051109 SAS CHA 8 180 94 86
20001104 LAL MEM 9 187 98 89

[/ QUOTE ]

For those keeping score at home, the sample size is 6481, not 6689.

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

6481 NBA games since 1990 with non-zero integer spread and total.

There were 254 pushes against spread [3.919%].

There were 100 pushes against total [1.543%].

Assuming these are independent (questionable), the likelihood of both occuring is 0.060%, slightly higher than the actual historical probability of 0.046%.

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

Impressive.

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

[ QUOTE ]
6481 NBA games since 1990 with non-zero integer spread and total.

There were 254 pushes against spread [3.919%].

There were 100 pushes against total [1.543%].

Assuming these are independent (questionable), the likelihood of both occuring is 0.060%, slightly higher than the actual historical probability of 0.046%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I prefer this one. Thanks again.

Lori

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

[ QUOTE ]
6481 NBA games since 1990 with non-zero integer spread and total.

There were 254 pushes against spread [3.919%].

There were 100 pushes against total [1.543%].

Assuming these are independent (questionable), the likelihood of both occuring is 0.060%, slightly higher than the actual historical probability of 0.046%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excuse me, as this is rushed, and I haven't really thought about it, but I think your original methodology is slightly flawed.

You should be looking for games that fit one of the following categories:
1) Odd total (ie: 189) AND odd spread (ie: -3).
2) Even total (ie: 190) AND even spread (ie: -2).

Otherwise, just take all of the non-zero spread games and round to the nearest integer result. As you did it, there are a whole class of games (even total/odd spread + odd total/even spread) that have no chance of push/push. This is probably why your estimation came out higher. The true historical rate is actually higher than you calculated it.

I have the last 2 seasons in a database. I don't have all the spread data for that time period in there yet, but I can just go off of my predicted scores, which will be close enough for these purposes. I'll check how often it hit exactly.

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

Good point. I'll take another look...

Re: Chance of predicting exact basketball scores?
 

3224 games in which push/push was possible, so 0.093%, not 0.046%.