quick question for you football ousider guys
is weighted DVOA a better indicator a teams current strength than overall DVOA? instinctively i would say yes, but i want to make sure.
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Re: quick question for you football ousider guys
Yes. It tosses out earlier games, so if you believe that what a team has done in the past couple of months is more important than what they did in September and such, then yes.
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Re: quick question for you football ousider guys
Vyse,
Does this weight for injury, personnel changes etc? |
Re: quick question for you football ousider guys
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Yes. It tosses out earlier games, so if you believe that what a team has done in the past couple of months is more important than what they did in September and such, then yes. [/ QUOTE ] well it doesnt actually toss them out. |
Re: quick question for you football ousider guys
[ QUOTE ]
is weighted DVOA a better indicator a teams current strength than overall DVOA? instinctively i would say yes, but i want to make sure. [/ QUOTE ] It's a better predictor of future success, so yes. |
Re: quick question for you football ousider guys
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Vyse, Does this weight for injury, personnel changes etc? [/ QUOTE ] No, for various reasons. It just increases the relative importance of recent games in the rating. |
Re: quick question for you football ousider guys
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Yes. It tosses out earlier games, so if you believe that what a team has done in the past couple of months is more important than what they did in September and such, then yes. [/ QUOTE ] well it doesnt actually toss them out. [/ QUOTE ] Actually, it does toss them out. |
Re: quick question for you football ousider guys
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Vyse, Does this weight for injury, personnel changes etc? [/ QUOTE ] Right now, adjusting for injury is asking a bit much of a statistical system. |
Re: quick question for you football ousider guys
by the way, read the FO FAQ. Lot of good stuff in there.
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Re: quick question for you football ousider guys
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Vyse, Does this weight for injury, personnel changes etc? [/ QUOTE ] Right now, adjusting for injury is asking a bit much of a statistical system. [/ QUOTE ] I was asking for the same adjustment more or less. Like if Peyton goes down... could you plug it in and pull out a new DVOA value that would be accurate. Seems like the answer is no, thanks for the help. |
Re: quick question for you football ousider guys
Yeah, that's where subjective opinion/scouting meets stats.
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Re: quick question for you football ousider guys
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Yes. It tosses out earlier games, so if you believe that what a team has done in the past couple of months is more important than what they did in September and such, then yes. [/ QUOTE ] well it doesnt actually toss them out. [/ QUOTE ] Actually, it does toss them out. [/ QUOTE ] jack, from what i read the lowest game 1 will be weigtted is 9% from glossary: [ QUOTE ] For those geeks who want to know exactly how much weight I am giving each week, so they can suggest changes, here goes. This is based on weeks, not games, so if your bye week came with, say 79% weight, then you just have no game given that weight. Starting in Week 13 and working backwards, the weights are: 100%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 99%, 97%, 94%, 90%, 85%, 79%, 72%, 64%, 55%. These weights move up each week, so by Week 17 the weights for Weeks 1-4 will be, working backwards once again, 45%, 34%, 22%, 9%. [/ QUOTE ] |
Re: quick question for you football ousider guys
oh, I thought it was removed completely. okay. well, he's constantly testing and re-testing, I think the original one might not have included week 1.
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