Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

After Michigan got exposed in the Rose Bowl, I would think a lot of smart money would be on Florida, as the sneaking suspicion about Ohio all year has been they are overrated.

Anyone know where the smarts are putting their money on this game?

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

When the game first posted on Pinnacle at OSU -7, all the money in the world came in on Ohio State. I got shut out of a good line four separate times, and eventually ended up with -7 (-116) which I thought was gonna be way unattainable ever again, although it turns out I was wrong. The line got all the way to 9.5 before coming back down.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

I'll look at superbooks stats on it.

Edit-okay, according to their "what is america betting on chart", 61% are on the Florida moneyline, 39% on Ohio State moneyline, 86% on over, 14% on under, 60% on Ohio States spread, 40% on Florida spread.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

why would the smart $ go to Florida just because you think OSU is overrated? How are they overrated anyway? They're the undisputed #1 team in the nation and earned it. Sure they could lose this game/win a close one but it's not like anyone really is going around saying UF will win by 21 either.

Penn State beat Tennessee (who UF only beat by one) why wouldn't the smart money go straight to OSU after that using your logic?

If any one game that neither team in the game played in is influencing your betting habits--you probably shouldn't ever bet because I don't think you can be a winner.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

[ QUOTE ]
why would the smart $ go to Florida just because you think OSU is overrated? How are they overrated anyway? They're the undisputed #1 team in the nation and earned it. Sure they could lose this game/win a close one but it's not like anyone really is going around saying UF will win by 21 either.

Penn State beat Tennessee (who UF only beat by one) why wouldn't the smart money go straight to OSU after that using your logic?

If any one game that neither team in the game played in is influencing your betting habits--you probably shouldn't ever bet because I don't think you can be a winner.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are in the wrong forum. Sporting Events is somewhere else.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

[ QUOTE ]
why would the smart $ go to Florida just because you think OSU is overrated? How are they overrated anyway? They're the undisputed #1 team in the nation and earned it. Sure they could lose this game/win a close one but it's not like anyone really is going around saying UF will win by 21 either.

Penn State beat Tennessee (who UF only beat by one) why wouldn't the smart money go straight to OSU after that using your logic?

If any one game that neither team in the game played in is influencing your betting habits--you probably shouldn't ever bet because I don't think you can be a winner.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe instead of being a flaming dick, you could discuss things rationally, kthx.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

From what I can tell is that the smart money is coming in on florida. On the spread at least. For reasons I am not smart enough to elaborate on Im sure.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

tOSU will win in a blowout.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

[ QUOTE ]
From what I can tell is that the smart money is coming in on florida. On the spread at least.

[/ QUOTE ]

On what are you basing that? Just the line creep back to 7 over the past week or so?

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

Well, from looking at dementia's percentages and ones I am looking at. 64% on OSU spread, 61% on OSU ML, and 63% on OSU parlay. Yet, the line has dropped from 7.5 to 7. Take from that what you will.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

no one knows where the smart money is going

it's actually going in on both teams...I think covers.com had a story on it within the last few days

In essence, if you can beat the average line, go for it
otherwise, little value in the line


I dropped a small action bet on Florida +7.5

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

here's the article at covers

I predict Ohio State 27 Florida 21 FWIW

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

It seems to me that the books would rather not set the line at 7 if they could help it, since there's obviously going to be a ton of action on this game, and 7 creates a high risk of a push meaning no profit for the house.

So it seems to me they'd move it a half-point either way if they thought they could get away with it. But they haven't, which suggests to me that the sharp bettors are on both sides and they can't justify a line move.

If my logic is completely absurd please feel free to tell me why.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

I thought that was true until the past few days. The line is at 7 for this game currently and was at 7 from the eagles game (until late the day of the game). Both games with heavy action. BTW, this is a very good thread in my opinion.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

I was undecided when the line was at 8.5, but at 7, I feel pretty good about taking Ohio State. I'm going to wait until the afternoon and see if I can get a few cents better on the price. If the line makes one last move back toward Florida, I don't think it will happen until close to game time.

Even though it sounds cliche, I think the biggest differences are going to be coaching and QB play. Meyer runs a somewhat gimmicky offense, and with Tressel and Co. having an entire month to come up with a defensive gameplan, I think they'll counter it pretty well.

As for Leak, he just doesn't perform well under pressure. He choked away the Auburn game with two terrible turnovers late, and even in the big win over Arkansas finished 16-30 for 189 with 1 TD and 2 INTs. Florida won not by being mistake-free, but just because Arkansas made even more big mistakes. Also, this doesn't include the bowls, but the Sagarin ratings like the Buckeyes by 11 on a neutral field.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

I'm not going to bet on this one, but I'm going to guess that such a high profile game as this one almost always has an unbeatable line.

That being said, if the Michigan result starts to encourage people to bet against OSU enough to move the line, I think I'd take OSU on that alone.

Lori

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

I asked the question of whether the line would move back on Jan 1. The consensus (ok, it was like 2 guys) was that the effect of Michigan losing would be counterbalanced by the Big 10 beating the SEC in 2 other games that same day. I think that's probably right.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

fnurt,

No offense, but I dont like this logic becuase I think the true sharps (syndicates and whoever else) use more for their analysis than a who beat who method.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

my guess is smart money is going on the ohio state moneyline..

i can come up with a bunch of reasons why they wouldn't cover more than a touchdown, but i can't think of many as to why they don't win...

coaching, quarterback play, athletes, and even special teams going on one side, and a lot of things have to go right over the course of a game for the underdog to win..

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

[ QUOTE ]
After Michigan got exposed in the Rose Bowl, I would think a lot of smart money would be on Florida, as the sneaking suspicion about Ohio all year has been they are overrated.

Anyone know where the smarts are putting their money on this game?

[/ QUOTE ]

lolz at michigan getting "exposed"

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

This is OSU's third 1 vs. 2 matchup. EVERY TIME people talk about upset but its not going to happen. OSU has way too many weapons man. best QB in college football, 3 good RBs, Ted Ginn AKA Flash, Gonzalez and his hiperberic tent, and their D is decent. Tressel = better coach than Urban Meyer

OSU 45 - FLA 28

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

I'm on OSU at -6.5 (-110) from Olympic about a week ago. If thats not smart money I dont know what is.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
After Michigan got exposed in the Rose Bowl, I would think a lot of smart money would be on Florida, as the sneaking suspicion about Ohio all year has been they are overrated.

Anyone know where the smarts are putting their money on this game?

[/ QUOTE ]

lolz at michigan getting "exposed"

[/ QUOTE ]

You think what, Mr. Lolz? It was a competitive game?

To me it looked a lot like the good old days when Bo would get stomped by the Pac-10 champ, year after year. "How could this happen?" we would ask. "They looked so good against the Big Ten!"

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

being a michigan fan, i'd like to think that losing on november 18th killed michigan's motivation...

however, it also makes me wonder which defense was the real thing..the one from the first 11 games, or the one that gave up literally dozens of big plays in the last 2...

either way though, ohio state is just better than florida..i have my eye on a couple alternate lines, and the moneyline, as stated earlier..

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

[ QUOTE ]
fnurt,

No offense, but I dont like this logic becuase I think the true sharps (syndicates and whoever else) use more for their analysis than a who beat who method.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the point.

If the sharps have worked out this is an 8.5 point victory and because Michigan lost, you can get -6.5, that's a great reason to back OSU

Lori

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

USC also had "way too many weapons" last year. I think Ohio State wins, but I think there is some value in the Florida moneyline.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

Any thought son the quarter or first half lines or over/unders? Are these type of things even valuable to bet or are these for suckers? I know halftime is typically good area but not sure on these ones. Thanks

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

What do you all think of the tease OSU/FL over 40.5?

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

[ QUOTE ]
being a michigan fan, i'd like to think that losing on november 18th killed michigan's motivation...

however, it also makes me wonder which defense was the real thing..the one from the first 11 games, or the one that gave up literally dozens of big plays in the last 2...

either way though, ohio state is just better than florida..i have my eye on a couple alternate lines, and the moneyline, as stated earlier..

[/ QUOTE ]

Michigan just doesn't have enough depth in their secondary to stop tOSU, SC, and maybe 3 other teams. It was the same defense throughout. The rest of their schedule wasn't capable of throwing out 4+ wideouts who will end up drafted to the NFL.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

Im liking OSU in a tease (-1, o40) -110.....thoughts??

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

alright, just placed a bet at Pinny
Florida to win by 1 to 10 points? Yes +320

EDITED as I messed up this whole part
I'm expecting Ohio State to win outright, but FLorida has a great shot of winning. I'm only estimating that the Gators win by more than 10 (when they win) about 12% of the time. Thus, I liked this line much more than the straight moneyline.[/edit]


Let's break it down
Florida offense:
6.5 ypp, 4.8 ypr, 8.5 yppa
tOSU defense:
4.6 ypp, 3.3 ypr, 5.7 yppa

tOSU offense:
6.3 ypp, 4.7 ypr, 8.5 yppa
Florida defense:
4.4 ypp, 2.8 ypr, 5.7 yppa

It appears to be a slight edge for Florida, but it's actually larger than appears. I corrected the numbers for strength of opponents. Florida faced much better defenses, while both teams faced similar offensive firepower throughout the year.

Definite edge to Florida. Through the adjustments, I have Florida at 25.19 points expected and tOSU at 22.45 points. This is before adjustments for turnovers, special teams, and other field position movements.

However, my turnover estimates have Florida making .7 more turnovers then tOSU on average in this matchup. This is based on interception ratios, sacks, tfls, and 3rd and long percentages throughout the season.

In addition, I have the Buckeyes gaining 2 points due to field position gains from Florida making more penalties.

Buckeyes gain about ~1 point from special teams deferential since Florida's place kicker is so freaking bad. There's a slight adv to Florida's punt team and an advantage to tOSU's kick returns. I think the KR advantage will be smaller than expected since Florida's youth on special teams should benefit dramatically from the extra weeks of practice.


All-in-all, that is about 5.5 points toward the Buckeyes.


I think the coaching equals out in this one. I give Tressel the edge in experience and game planning. However, I really do admire Meyer's trick play/gimmicks (which are harder than hell to prepare for--see Boise St/Oklahoma) and the way he has brought freshman along in safe situations (Harvin might create the big play needed).

MY estimates have tOSU -2.75 and the total at 47. I see good value in Florida +320 to win by 1 to 10 points.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

i got tOSU at -7(-104) earlier in the week and i am quite happy with it. 5 units too. holla.

rj

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to bet on this one, but I'm going to guess that such a high profile game as this one almost always has an unbeatable line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Line moves are done by the public, like last year when the head Handicapper at MGM Mirage said the spread on USC should be 4.5 in the newspaper, but they were opening at 6.5 due to square interest, and it immediately moved to 7.5/8 anyway. Obvs Texas won outright.

High profile means more Public bettors means more oppurtunity.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i got tOSU at -7(-104) earlier in the week and i am quite happy with it. 5 units too. holla.

rj

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a good line. I just took them at -7 (-110). I don't follow college football much but it seems Ohio State has been unrated all year. I dont remember the lines towards the end of the year but I thought the Ohio State line was off against Texas, Iowa, and Minnesota. I am not sure how Florida keeps with them in this one.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

well, they have failed to cover 2 of 3 and 3 of 7. They got outgained v Illinois, so it's not like they are 1995 Nebraska or 2001 Miami reincarnated.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to bet on this one, but I'm going to guess that such a high profile game as this one almost always has an unbeatable line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Line moves are done by the public, like last year when the head Handicapper at MGM Mirage said the spread on USC should be 4.5 in the newspaper, but they were opening at 6.5 due to square interest, and it immediately moved to 7.5/8 anyway. Obvs Texas won outright.

High profile means more Public bettors means more oppurtunity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I stand corrected, thanks.

Lori

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

more prop bet fun

besides the under240.5 gross passing yards by Florida which Iggy turned me onto and is the best value of the whole game,
I've picked out a few more ones I've put small wagers on to get my gambling jones

Will Dallas Baker score a Touchdown? 3277) Yes +111
at Pinny
Dallas has scored a td in 8 of 13 games. One that he didn't was Western Carolina where he was injured for a large portion of the game. He remains Leak's goto guy. Ohio St's pass defense is tough, but if Florida catches a td pass or two, Baker is the man.

Rushing yards by Chris Wells 3264) Under 39.5 rushing yards -116 again @ Pinny
More than smoke on the internet forums that Chris Wells is heavily thinking about transferring. It's leaked that he is upset at the lack of carries both now and into the future. He has a huge fumbling issue. Tressel was afraid to use him late in the game against Michigan. Depite being over the key number in 7 of 12 (and 4 of the last 5 [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] ), C. Wells is now in the doghouse. I expect him to be used to break a big pass play from the backfield. His fumbling issues are just too much for the sweatered vest one.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

to be clear, obviously the sharp money moves the line as well, but that's normally later. Sharps weren't moving USC from 6.5 to 7.5 to 8.5 before the Rose Bowl last year. The line moved back down to 7-7.5 for kickoff, as well as a ML drop from 260 to 210 and I expect sharps were most of that move.

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
After Michigan got exposed in the Rose Bowl, I would think a lot of smart money would be on Florida, as the sneaking suspicion about Ohio all year has been they are overrated.

Anyone know where the smarts are putting their money on this game?

[/ QUOTE ]

lolz at michigan getting "exposed"

[/ QUOTE ]

You think what, Mr. Lolz? It was a competitive game?

To me it looked a lot like the good old days when Bo would get stomped by the Pac-10 champ, year after year. "How could this happen?" we would ask. "They looked so good against the Big Ten!"

[/ QUOTE ]


looks to me like they were deflated by a season-ending letdown loss to their biggest rival while playing for the national title, then they sat for like 42 days, plus had to travel cross country and someone finally decided to throw the ball at morgan trent...."exposed" is just stupid, what did they expose? that USC has the fastest, most talented roster in the country while playing a relative home game?

Re: Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?
 

What you just said about USC having a more talented roster, Morgan Trent being a weakness on defense, etc. is like the dictionary definition of "exposed." Yeah, their shortcomings were exposed. But yeah, I agree, that loss they had to end the season was devastating compared to USC's inspiring last game.