Big Loss in One Session
 

I play limit Texas Hold 'em about one or two times per week. This year I've played around 500 hours. I'm winning such a small amount that I consider myself a break even player. I'm learning and I want to win consistently.

I recently started playing at an 8-16 limit table. In my first six sessions I won 4 times and was up $888. Yesterday I played a 9 hour session and lost $778. I’ve played at that table against 8 other tough opponents and won. Yesterday the table was filled with at least 4 bad players all day. I played solid all day, but could not get any hands that held up. In the past when I’ve started losing I felt myself getting rattled and have not always played my best. Yesterday was a break through, because even though I took the worst lose ever in one sitting, I stayed absolutely calm, did not go on tilt in the slightest and kept playing solid all day. It was actually a good feeling, except for the lost money.

Is it possible to lose this much just due to the variance in poker? I’ve read a lot about players going on losing streaks and that it is just part of the game. So far I’ve never had more than 4 losing sessions in a row. I don’t have any friends who play poker a lot so I depend on books and this forum to get advice. I consider yesterday a success because I did not let the run of bad cards get to me.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

You probably play bad.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

So you've won $110 in seven sessions at a $8-16 game. Sounds like a break even player to me. Accounting for the rake, you're actually beating the other players by a significant margin. 50 Big Bets is a huge loss, but I've had about three of those in my lifetime, and I remember each one with sickening clarity. It's a part of the game, but if this happens often, then you should start to worry.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

Was this live or on-line? What were the game conditions like? Where do you rate yourself among the other players, 5th best out of 9?

Over a 9 hour session, a loss like this is possible regardless of how well you play. If you're a break even player, this loss is more likely because you don't have a $32/hour trend pulling you up. You should be able to find many good posts on variance to get the math on how likely this loss is based on your EV and stdev.

Sorry to hear about your bad day.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

I've had several losses of that magnitude (one time I lost 50 BB in just 3 hours!). After much thought, I think that each time I was certainly doomed by the cards to take a substantial loss, but I think every time I made it worse by tilting - perhaps as much as half of the money could have been saved had I played perfectly.

In your case, I think it's highly unlikely that you "did not go on tilt in the slightest and kept playing solid" - tilt is very subtle and even the best players suffer from it. There was a time when I thought that my ability to not tilt was perhaps my greatest strength, but now I've come to realize that my tilting is probably my biggest downfall.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

Thanks for the reply. I've won 60-70 big bets in about 4 hours playing 3-6 a couple of times. Yesterday was the first time I've ever lost more than 30 big bets in a session. I moved up in limits because I've heard many times that it is impossible to beat the rake in 4-8 and 3-6. I don't know if that's true but I feel comfortable playing 8-16 or 10-20. I will never go higher than that unless I can truly beat those limits. I'm not there yet.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

The thing about losses of this magnitude is that other players start playing better against you. They see you as beatable and you become readable because you 'never have anything'. Your semibluffs stop working, and your marginal hands are no longer marginal. I've come back from 50BB down to post a 70BB win by the end of the session, though, so it really depends on the game. A lot of players underestimate variance, and seem to think that their short term results carry more significance than they actually do.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

I'm still in shock about how well I'm taking the loss, but I know it's because I played a good game all day. I'm sure I was on tilt a little bit, because it is always harder to play when losing. It was live game and I would rate myself anywhere from 5th best to 2nd or 3rd out of 9. I don't know the players very well. I do know that most of them play every day and I only can get there about once per week. They don't seem to be that good at poker especially since they play all the time.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

You are right. I'm sure I was more on tilt than I realized but it does not account for that big a loss. I agree with you about always working to stay off tilt. Yesterday was my best effort at minimizing my tilt factor in the face of really bad day. I watch people all the time blowing off hundreds of dollars in 15 minutes because they go on tilt. My goal it play as steady as possible at all times. It is not easy to do.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

you'll get one of these on average about every 40 sessions or so on average. sometimes you get a few clumped close together. not fun.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

That's a good point. I know when I'm winning people react to that also and will lay down more hands because 'I always have it'. I've also watched my stack go up 30 big bets, go down to negative 15 bets and then back up to 15 big bets by the end of the session.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

Yeah. Those sessions are super tough. I always sleep for like fourteen hours after one of those and have terrible nightmares. Seriously depleted testosterone levels. But the upswings more than make up for it. Hang in there, keep reading books, keep thinking about the game, and always play as well as you can. Self awareness can be a poker player's best friend. If you know when you're on tilt, when you're likely to go on tilt, and how to avoid it as best you can, your wallet will thank you.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

I think your experience is a good example of the fallacy of "you can't beat low limit games". You're a consistent winner at 4-8, but it is taking a bit of time to find your way in 8-16 and 10-20. From the sound of it, you'll figure the games out and eventually beat them for more than you beat the low limit game.

What mistakes were your opponents making? Someone else mentioned that once you start running bad, people play better against you. One thing I really have had trouble doing, is realizing that semi-bluffs have stopped working. If they will never fold, semibluffing becomes value betting the second-best hand. If they're calling too much, you can only bet/raise when you're ahead. Semibluffing is actually rewarding them for their bad play. When I'm having trouble with this, there seems to be almost a sick satisfaction of seeing a bad player show down a hand he "should" have folded. This has been a big leak for me at times.

Keep posting and good luck,

Doug

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

Doug,

After 400 hours of 3-6 and 4-8 I was only averaging 1/2 big bet per hour profit. I consider that barely breaking even. After hearing over and over how a person can't beat the rake I decided to move up. I think I'll move back down for awhile. In Washington where I play, the competition is better at 8-16 and 10-20 but a lot of the players are the same people from 4-8. I like the higher limits because people actually fold once in awhile. I was getting burned out watching 5 players chase my AA (for example) all the way to the river. Thanks for your input. What games do you normally play?

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

I play anywhere from 4-8 with a 1/2 kill to 10-20 in home games. Up in the mountains they have a wild 2-5 spread limit game, which I've always found quite beatable despite claims of this being impossible. In Vegas I like the 10-20 and 20-40 games at the Mirage and I typically play 15-30 at Bellagio.

I've always been a big fame of Abdul's writing, so having 5 way action to the river allows me to employ the Theory of Sucking Out. The down side of these games is the big swings, but they'll teach you to overplay your PP just like I do.

I know it isn't a big favoite on the forums, but I'd really recommend Middle Limit Holdem Poker by Bob Ciaffone and Jim Brier. Reading Jim's posts took me from break-even poker to being a money winner.

GL,

Doug

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

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but I'd really recommend Middle Limit Holdem Poker by Bob Ciaffone and Jim Brier.

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Many on the forum recommend this book.

However, it's not really for the games that the OP is in. For that game, SSHE. Though, reading MLH wouldn't hurt.

b

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

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So you've won $110 in seven sessions at a $8-16 game. Sounds like a break even player to me.

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Not enough info for this evaluation. 7 sessions doesn't mean squat. You can easily go 4-6 months and break even, even though you are still actually beating the game.(just convert your hours in a cardroom times the hand per hour(about 40). Then compare that to the 40k hands online breakeven streaks that many, including myself(even live), have experienced. It helps put it in perspective.)

In that short of time, the only real way to evaluate is to analyze the hell out of hands to confirm you're playing well.

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50 Big Bets is a huge loss,

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It's not that huge. Especially in an action game That's just a session buy in, really. Though, in a more passive game it can seem like alot.

b

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

Where are you playing?

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Is it possible to lose this much just due to the variance in poker?

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Yes. Especially if it's an action game. There's a reason we recommend a BR of at least 300BBs. The other 250BBs aren't just there to look at.

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So far I’ve never had more than 4 losing sessions in a row.

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It's real fun when it gets around 8 or 9 losers in a row.

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This year I've played around 500 hours. I'm winning such a small amount that I consider myself a break even player.

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Results alone, with only about 20k hands, you won't know you're a break even player. Work on how to analyze hands meticulously. Then you won't need to look at your results.

After reading through the thread, I'm guessing, with the swings your seeing, you might be playing a little too loose.

b

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

Wait til you:

Lose for a month strait not winning on effing session, that is over 160 hours of live play.

Take a 250 BB dowswing in less than a week.

Not see pocket aces for two months.

Not flop a set for a month and a half.

Play in the red for three months.

At this point you are now a sophmore.

Good Luck, and happy playing!

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

50 Big Bets is a very large loss in a single live session. It's roughly equivalent to simply posting your blinds and folding every hand. The longest I've done this is about four hours. Maybe I haven't played long enough. Multi-tabling online does give you a different perspective on the variance of your live game, though. But isn't it easier for a good player to have a bigger win rate and lower variance live?

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Not see pocket aces for two months.

Not flop a set for a month and a half.


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Really? That's either absurdly brutal or somewhat of an exaggeration.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

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50 Big Bets is a very large loss in a single live session.

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Actually, no, it really isn't. But it can be daunting if you haven't done it that much or if you're used to leaving after losing 30BBs(per annie duke rule). It is a pain threshold, actually. Took me awhile to get used to it.

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But isn't it easier for a good player to have a bigger win rate and lower variance live?

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The bigger the win rate comes with a higher variance level. Which also comes with aggression. It took me awhile to actually grasp that.

Game texture also comes into play. You'll have lower variance in a tighter game than a looser one. The more people see the flop, the higher your winrate will be, but your swings will be bigger.

b

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

I lost $800 playing live 8/16 yesterday in a 9 hour session and I've had quite a few similar losses and it hasn't stopped me from being a pretty solid winner, although I only have a little over 250 hours in this game. When I started playing 20/40, after my first two or three sessions I was down 2k and now I'm up a decent amount, but sample size is smaller than 8/16. You can definitely lose for a couple sessions and be a winning player in the game.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

I was playing 15/30 live on Tuesday. I got down $1900 (>60 BB), didn't tilt at all, and came back to post a winning session. It took 12 hours, but I did it. It's certainly, very possible to post a 50 BB losing session without doing anything wrong in a live setting. It's tremendously frustrating when it happens, but if you really know you're playing well, it will turn around in the long run.

Playing on the internet, I've had streaks that were much longer than that (-400 BB over a month at one point), despite being a winner in the long-term. Basically, luck plays a lot bigger factor in your short-term results than most people believe or would like to admit. If you know you're consistently playing better than your opponents, just keep chipping away.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

I've been subcribing to Card Player for about a year and my favorite column is Bob Ciaffone's. He gives straight forward good advice. My girl fiance thinks I'm nuts for buying so many poker books, but after your post I need to add that one to the list.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

I started to write girl friend and then changed it too fiance in my last post. I wasn't trying to say that I am engaged to a girl:) I just read it and it sounds funny. She is female.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

Yes, I agree I may play too loose. Please read my post that I just submitted titled "Early Position Starting Hands".

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

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Not see pocket aces for two months.

Not flop a set for a month and a half.


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Really? That's either absurdly brutal or somewhat of an exaggeration.

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It depends upon the hours/hands played. While I was running bad and was bored onetime, I kept track of the number of pocket-pairs that did not flop a set. I was up to 17 before I hit a set. It is frustrating when at the same time the guy next to you gets AA/KK/QQ 3 or 4 times that win and you see someone else flop 3 sets in a row and win.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

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But isn't it easier for a good player to have a bigger win rate and lower variance live?

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The bigger the win rate comes with a higher variance level. Which also comes with aggression. It took me awhile to actually grasp that.

Game texture also comes into play. You'll have lower variance in a tighter game than a looser one. The more people see the flop, the higher your winrate will be, but your swings will be bigger.


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Yes, this is true and something that I'm just getting used to too. As you move up in limits, the bigger games have more aggression, thus they have more variance.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

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Not see pocket aces for two months.

Not flop a set for a month and a half.


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Really? That's either absurdly brutal or somewhat of an exaggeration.

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It depends upon the hours/hands played. While I was running bad and was bored onetime, I kept track of the number of pocket-pairs that did not flop a set. I was up to 17 before I hit a set. It is frustrating when at the same time the guy next to you gets AA/KK/QQ 3 or 4 times that win and you see someone else flop 3 sets in a row and win.

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There's like a 12% chance of that happening, hardly scarce.

The original two statements however are so absurd they are hardly believable.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

Sklansky's "Poker, Gaming and Life" has an essay about "max losses". The example he uses is either a 6-12 or 8-16 game. Don't remember exactly. I liked it and think it's worth a read.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

2006-11-17 Hawaiian Gardens Casino Casino Hold 'Em 3h 0m
-760.00 -8.44 -76.00
2006-11-03 Hawaiian Gardens Casino Casino Hold 'Em 5h 0m
-1340.00 -8.93 -77.01

$9024.00
Win Rate: $14.69/hr Time played: 614h 10m

So whatever, it happens ALL the time. 50 BB.....3 racks at a 3-6 chip game is so common. The above results are past 2 years for me. I've had 2 downswings over 150BB over several sessions. It happens.

It's good that you are asking questions, and its good that you didn't tilt, but you are in for a lot of difficulty if you can't accept the swings that are inherrent in this game.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

Thanks for your comment. I'm new to poker and that's why I'm asking if these kinds of swings are normal. Judging from the responses losing 50 BB is not an abnormal swing.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

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The bigger the win rate comes with a higher variance level. Which also comes with aggression. It took me awhile to actually grasp that.

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We're talking about two different things here. Increasing your winrate does not increase your variance. If your winrate increases due to a more aggressive strategy, yes, your variance will naturally increase. So I'm not disagreeing with that. But I was talking about having a larger edge due to being able to read your opponents better. I believe this is much easier in live games, unless you have little to no skill at reading your opponents and/or are extremely readable yourself. Personally, I find it much easier to manipulate my opponents, avoid paying off with a second best hand, and value bet with a marginal hand that I know is good. Overall, this is a much lower variance strategy, as everything is based on a stronger read. I also find people raise you with air less in live games than they do online. Some people get embarassed by 'getting caught'. It's the same reason people talk more crap online. People get upset in live games, but not quite the same way.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

I've lost 1BB/hand for 80 hands straight before.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

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Judging from the responses losing 50 BB is not an abnormal swing.

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When I'm over 30 BB's, I figure I'm running bad and playing bad and get up. That's just me. I don't think I've ever lost 50 BB's in a session. 20 plenty of times and 30 more than a few times.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

I usually quit if I'm down 30 big bets. I wanted to see if I could turn things around. Due to bad luck or bad play or both, I couldn't do it. I'm going back to quitting when I'm down 30.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

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So you've won $110 in seven sessions at a $8-16 game. Sounds like a break even player to me.

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Not enough info for this evaluation. 7 sessions doesn't mean squat. You can easily go 4-6 months and break even, even though you are still actually beating the game.(just convert your hours in a cardroom times the hand per hour(about 40). Then compare that to the 40k hands online breakeven streaks that many, including myself(even live), have experienced. It helps put it in perspective.)

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You should consider that the level of play at these small stakes live games is very low. This gives a good player a huge edge, making large breakeven stretches (counted in number of hands) almost impossible. When you are playing high-stakes holdem online with a 1bb/100 edge (or perhaps even smaller) you can have huge swings and break even stretches. If you are a solid player a winrate of 1 or 2 bb/hour is certainly possible in a low stakes live limit game. If you have a winrate like that, a long breakeven period is almost impossible. Another thing is that you don't need a bankroll as big as often is adviced on these boards. Your winrate in bb/100 can be 5+ when playing live, so a 300BB bankroll isn't needed. When you earn 2BB/hour you have a +/- 1% risk of ruin on a 150BB bankroll (depends a bit on play style aka the variance).

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

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Not see pocket aces for two months.

Not flop a set for a month and a half.


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Really? That's either absurdly brutal or somewhat of an exaggeration.

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It depends upon the hours/hands played. While I was running bad and was bored onetime, I kept track of the number of pocket-pairs that did not flop a set. I was up to 17 before I hit a set. It is frustrating when at the same time the guy next to you gets AA/KK/QQ 3 or 4 times that win and you see someone else flop 3 sets in a row and win.

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There's like a 12% chance of that happening, hardly scarce.

The original two statements however are so absurd they are hardly believable.

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Between June and August I didn't flop a single set playing online.

I was playing Stud 8 though.

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

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You should consider that the level of play at these small stakes live games is very low. This gives a good player a huge edge, making large breakeven stretches (counted in number of hands) almost impossible. If you are a solid player a winrate of 1 or 2 bb/hour is certainly possible in a low stakes live limit game. If you have a winrate like that, a long breakeven period is almost impossible.

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You realize we're talking about a limit game, right?

Actually, the swings are a bit bigger in looser games like this. And yes, a long breakeven period is very possible.

7 sessions is nothing to base anything on.

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When you earn 2BB/hour you have a +/- 1% risk of ruin on a 150BB bankroll

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150BB downswings aren't uncommon on LL tables. Your RoR is much higher than 1%.

b

Re: Big Loss in One Session
 

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You should consider that the level of play at these small stakes live games is very low. This gives a good player a huge edge, making large breakeven stretches (counted in number of hands) almost impossible. If you are a solid player a winrate of 1 or 2 bb/hour is certainly possible in a low stakes live limit game. If you have a winrate like that, a long breakeven period is almost impossible.

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You realize we're talking about a limit game, right?

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Yes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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Actually, the swings are a bit bigger in looser games like this. And yes, a long breakeven period is very possible.

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The edge of a good player is also a lot bigger, and certainly when the game isn't very aggressive the swings won't be really huge.

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7 sessions is nothing to base anything on.

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True [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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When you earn 2BB/hour you have a +/- 1% risk of ruin on a 150BB bankroll

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150BB downswings aren't uncommon on LL tables. Your RoR is much higher than 1%.

b

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150BB downswings aren't uncommon when you have a 2bb/100 winrate in an agressive game, if you make 4bb/100 (that's easy live, right?) the probability of a 150bb downswing is decreased a lot. The same thing applies for 50bb swings.