Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

***Whoever wins, I will Neteller transfer the aforementioned prize money by tomorrow afternoon.


Full Tilt Poker
$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
CO: $66.35
BTN: $100.45
SB: $163.55
BB: $33.45
Hero (UTG): $110.85
MP: $99.60

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($1.5, 6 players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $43</font>, MP folds, CO folds, <font color="red">BTN raises all in to $100.45</font>, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls $57.45

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($202.4, 2 players)
No action

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] ($202.4, 2 players)
No action

<font color="black">River:</font> 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] ($202.4, 2 players)
No action

<font color="black">Results:</font>
BTN had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a pair of Queens)
Hero had 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a flush, Ace high) and won $199.40
Final Pot: $199.40 ($3.00 rake)



The contest objective is to answer these 6 questions correctly:

1. Explain my preflop RAISE action correctly-why I did what I did.
2. Explain my preflop CALL action correctly-why I did what I did.
3. Does my preflop RAISE play lose or win money in the long run?
4. Does my preflop CALL play lose or win money in the long run (not given what he actually had)?
5. Explain specifically my preflop INSTA-call.

6. *Bonus Question: Being results-oriented (given that he had AhQh), do I actually win or lose money in the long run by making the call, and how much do I win or lose?

*The bonus question does NOT have to be answered, or it can be answered in a broad estimate, but if multiple people get the first 5 correct, the person who answers question 6 the best will win.

**One post attempt by any given poster, and only with one scenario (however I have the power to grant any poster an additional attempt via, "try again").

**If I coach you or otherwise have discussed this hand with you, you are DQ'ed from the contest.

**You must be a SSNL player/poster, no NL 600 regs+ allowed [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

**Contest ends midnight tonight!

Comments to set up the hand:

*I am playing NL 100 to coach someone. I normally play 3/6 NL, 5/10 NL, and HU NL games.

*In HU NL games, and in games where I feel I have an edge, I sometimes do "crazy" things to help my table image. This does NOT mean in any way that I did anything in this hand to that effect, at all...I'm just stating this for information about who I am and how villains possibly perceive me.

*My image at this table is tag or very slight lag, around 23/17, and I've been decently active (by far the most active preflop raiser at the table), but I've not been running well at all, and my image is probably pretty bad-I don't think people respect me that I have great hands, just b/c I've not been able to show down winners. The table has seen me lose a lot of medium pots where I've had to fold, and one re-raised pot where I lost my whole stack (I had AQ and villain flopped aces up).

*The rest of the table is pretty typically Full Tilt NL 100...some tight/passive, others loose/passive, maybe 1 tag in there, or 1 lag. Pretty standard table.

*Villain in this hand has been here for 60 of my 150 hands. His stats after 61 hands are approx. 26/10.

*When it was villain's turn to act, he thought for about 45% of his time before pushing.

*When it came back around to me, I insta-called, literally not using 1 full second of my clock.

*I like CTS.

Lastly, there is some information in this thread that is possibly misleading, but most simply leading. Use your own discretion; everything I wrote is true. Good luck!

Edited: I needed to fix my "postflop" talk to "preflop call of his all in".

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

[ QUOTE ]
1. Explain my preflop action correctly-why I did what I did.
2. Explain my postflop action correctly-why I did what I did.
3. Does my preflop play lose or win money in the long run?
4. Does my postflop play lose or win money in the long run (not given what he actually had)?
5. Explain specifically my postflop INSTA-call.

6. *Bonus Question: Being results-oriented (given that he had AhQh), do I actually win or lose money in the long run by making the call postflop, and how much do I win or lose?


[/ QUOTE ]

WTF!???!??

There is no postflop dude, check your converter.

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

43BB PFR with A8s: standard. Ship the $250.

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

made it look like a bluff -&gt; got your man to commit ... pm me for neteller details

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

[ QUOTE ]
43BB PFR with A8s: standard. Ship the $250.

[/ QUOTE ]

[censored] I lose. UUUGhhghhghhhh. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] I think you deserve a $50 side-pot for wit there, nh lol [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. Explain my preflop action correctly-why I did what I did.
2. Explain my postflop action correctly-why I did what I did.
3. Does my preflop play lose or win money in the long run?
4. Does my postflop play lose or win money in the long run (not given what he actually had)?
5. Explain specifically my postflop INSTA-call.

6. *Bonus Question: Being results-oriented (given that he had AhQh), do I actually win or lose money in the long run by making the call postflop, and how much do I win or lose?


[/ QUOTE ]

WTF!???!??

There is no postflop dude, check your converter.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's been fixed. By "postflop", I was talking about the preflop call on my part.

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

[ QUOTE ]
43BB PFR with A8s: standard. Ship the $250.

[/ QUOTE ]

You win! j/k, lol good one [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

are you [censored] serious ? I almost died laughing as it is .. don´t tell me the converter didn´t screw up lol

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

[ QUOTE ]
are you [censored] serious ? I almost died laughing as it is .. don´t tell me the converter didn´t screw up lol

[/ QUOTE ]

No; the converter is 100% correct.

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

[ QUOTE ]

1. Explain my preflop RAISE action correctly-why I did what I did.
It was either a misclick, or you like to do crazy things like this for metagame reasons.
2. Explain my preflop CALL action correctly-why I did what I did.
[b]Well, you are getting good odds, plus you have the ability to a make the nut flush. If the opponent has a 99-KK, you still have an overcard. Also, metagame again. (OMG HE CALLED WITH A8s?!?!)[b]
3. Does my preflop RAISE play lose or win money in the long run?
[b] I'm gonna say win money, not because of the actual EV of raising this much, but because people will think you are crazy. The actual play itself, in a vacuum, loses money. The play as metagame, wins money.[b]
4. Does my preflop CALL play lose or win money in the long run (not given what he actually had)?
[b] I think it loses in the long run. No worse hands are ever calling, sometimes you will be coinflipping, but most of the you are dominated. Although, again, metagame.[b]
5. Explain specifically my preflop INSTA-call.
[b] Pot odds, metagame etc. See 2.[b]
6. *Bonus Question: Being results-oriented (given that he had AhQh), do I actually win or lose money in the long run by making the call, and how much do I win or lose?
[b] Not sure, I'm not a math guy[b]

[/ QUOTE ]

I gave it my best shot [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

you were tyring to rep a miscick pf, as you knew villain would push w/ ATC, since he assumes you'll fold... A8s is the nuts vs. ATC:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.9438 % 60.51% 01.44% { As8s }
Hand 2: 38.0562 % 36.62% 01.44% { random }

You probably noticed villain making opportunistic plays like this.

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

There is some excellent thinking going on in this thread already, Al and Kei...not saying right, wrong or indifferent, but just great thought processes here...

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

1. Explain my preflop RAISE action correctly-why I did what I did.
2. Explain my preflop CALL action correctly-why I did what I did.
3. Does my preflop RAISE play lose or win money in the long run?
4. Does my preflop CALL play lose or win money in the long run (not given what he actually had)?
5. Explain specifically my preflop INSTA-call.


1. Fake misclick against a decent villain who you think will push hands that are above the top half of your raising range, and maybe a little below for fold equity.

2. call - your hand has pot odds against the hands he should be pushing with, assuming he thinks you made a misclick (at 100nl this is probably very accurate)

3. it wins, against someone who isn't gonna start leveling with you, because they see the misclick and push with 98s and kjo and lots of hands that are &gt;&gt;&gt; a random hand and slightly greater than the bottom half of your pfr range

4. it obviously wins, for the same reaons as #3

5. he timed 45% to decide if you are faking, of course decides you aren't, and pushes - he has a marginal hand, as AK and highish pps are an insta call. so you of course insta call because you have incredible pot odds against his range to push, not to mention your hand has very high hot/cold equity if he pushes light at all, as you expect him to. Even if he is pushing very tight, you have a barely +EV call vs KK and higher aces, and AA is unlikely given he ran his timer down.

6. results, yes, this time your call was barely +EV, as you had 30% equity in a $200 pot if you call ($60 equity) and you only had to call $57. you made $3 in EV by calling. folding is 0EV of course.

Hand 1: 57.2395 % 54.67% 02.63% { A8s }
Hand 2: 42.7604 % 40.17% 02.63% { top 50% hands hot/cold }

Hand 1: 44.2828 % 42.15% 02.13% { A8s }
Hand 2: 55.7174 % 53.59% 02.13% { top 15% hands hot/cold }

Hand 1: 29.5775 % 26.91% 02.67% { As8s }
Hand 2: 70.4225 % 67.75% 02.67% { AhQh }

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

OK I'll have a shot. I'm posting this now to give my unorganized thought process and editing later to answer specifically the questions you posed.

I think this play hinges on the counter-intuitively large amount of EV that any Ax holds against villain's calling range. You are doing this for metagame reasons. You plan to show this hand, giving the impression that you are taking this crazy line with Axs, getting your opponents to 'catch you out' in future with high AX hands and High PP's. In future you will plan to do this exact same thing only with super premium hands, roughly AA-QQ and AK, making a big profit versus their now grossly expanded calling/pushing range. If you get unlucky now and one of your opponents does have a premium hand, you have a decent amount of equity versus their range.

So in summary a low AX hand provides these two things. Maximum shock value with decent equity versus premium hands.



You have an ace in your hand, so it is highly unlikely that anyone at the table will have been dealt AA. (6 combinations versus 24 for KK/QQ etc) Because your PFR screams a big PP or AK, everyone folds AQ and lower here, and very often you'll be getting folds from AK too, but as we find out soon it doesn't really matter what higher AX hands do.



Equity versus KK: 31.93%
Equity versus AK: 30.00%
Equity versus AA: 11.97%

Let's assume a very tight pushing range of AA-QQ. Your equity versus this range is (31.93*8+11.97)/9 = 29.7%. Even versus only AA-KK, your equity is (31.93*4+11.97)/9 = 27.9%. Compare this to the equity that say, TT has against a higher PP, 18.85%, and you can see that Ax is a great hand to do this with.

So no matter what villain's pushing range here, your equity hovers between the very small range of 27.9% and 31.93% - around 30%. You're winning between $56 and $64 dollars on average by calling here, so your call for $57.50 is roughly breakeven.

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

great job so far guys...you are more advanced than I suspected [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]...everyone take a good shot...I'll be checking in throughout the day...contest ends midnight and I'll declare a winner or reveal the answer

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

I'll give it a shot because I'm a sucker for free money...

1) You raised 43$ preflop implying that you mistyped, your normal raise is probably 4$ and since the 3 is close villains can easily assume you mistyped and push with ATC. Its also good for metagame because your image will change towards maniac, considering that your image is already that of a bluffy guy (you run bad so you have to fold more often so people assume you bet with air more often) and you might as well turn it into a maniac image so you just have to worry about value betting.
2) You snapcalled because you are assuming villains range is very wide, with the added fact that villain pushed after thinking a bit implies that his hand isn't a autopush hand like a big pair or AK giving you even better odds. Add in the fact of metagame and you have a quick call.
3) If you don't do this with any regularity it will win money in the long run, this is assuming you pull this off once in a blue moon. Its good for image and this will also earn you more money, I doubt I have to mention that its a high variance play. This needs thinking players however, if villain will only push with QQ+,AQ+ you will lose money in the long run.
4) Your snapcall makes money as explained in point 1. This is assuming his range is very wide for pushing, and I think it is. With the metagame and pot odds mixed in its probably slightly +ev to call.
5) You already decided to call when you raised, so you might as well snapcall.

Bonus:
Lets see;
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

61,642,944 games 0.125 secs 493,143,552 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 69.1440 % 66.34% 02.80% { AQo }
Hand 2: 30.8560 % 28.06% 02.80% { A8s }

So you have ~30% equity with ~143$ in the pot and 57$ for you to call.
To break even you need;
143*(3/10)=42.9
Its however 57$ to call, so your losing about 14$ every time you make the call.

My math is screwed up so I'm curious if I got it right. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]


Ps. How are you going to control the editing sprew of people after seeying other responces?

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

Ok, Im giving this a shot.

1. Preflop, you likely wanted to establish or cement the idea that you were a bad player making wild plays who was possibly now on tilt, setting opponents up for later when you may be able to make a similar overbet with a big hand and win a huge pot when u were way ahead equity wise. You raised to $43 because this pot stuck you to being given near correct odds to call any all in raise unless you can put the villan on a bigger suited ace or AA. (I use cardplayer.com's Holdem odds calculator way too much).

2. Ur preflop call was made due was the fact that the pot was laying you near a good price (like between 6-9% off equity wise depending on villands hand) added to the expected money you can expect to see in the future by villans calling big bets of yours, you were selling to the rest of the table that ur huge overbets were full of crap to the table, so you could get paid off in future hands. U had to call $53 to win $147, which means ur only getting slightly less than the price that would make the call alone break even EV wise.

3. I believe that in the long run, the raise is a slightly winning play, assuming that at an average NL100 table you can expect to get no action on this $42 raise unless you run into AA-JJ, (given ur table image) and occasionally big aces, and when you do run into these hands you have about 30-32% equity against (except AA or couse). You stand to steal the blinds enough times, and win enough in future big bets being paid off for the few times you run into AA or a big suited ace to be negligible, making this to be profitable in the long run.

4. In the long run, the fact that villan took a long time to raise lead you to believe the pot was laying you near the right price to call (he obv. didnt have AA), coupled with the fact that you stood to have future overbets paid off. Overall, the call alone does not make money itself, but the table image and future overbets you might stand to win assuming players are sticking around makes it profitable when all this is taken into account.

5. First off, the insta-call helped cement the crazy image you were trying to portray. Also, any pause from the villan making this raise led you to believe you were getting a close enough price to call, all things considered.

6. Given that you ran into another bigger suited ace, the second worst hand to run into after AA, which you could have never predicted from his long pause, this might push you into the realm of losing money, because you are now no longer getting very close to the right price to make the call just based on the odds the pot is laying you and will need to make up more money in future overbets being paid off. So this could make calling a losing money option, being results oriented.

$250 is worth a shot even if what i wrote is garbage [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

1: Table image, set up players for later hands so that you will get paid off with a similar odd play when you have the nuts/near nuts
2:Pot odds, you have to call not that you are put all in. You are getting about 4 to 1 when you are less than a 4 to 1 dog.
3: I believe it loses money in the long run. Assuming you do this UTG and pick up the $1.50, these profits are offset by the times that you lose. Most times you are going to be dominated holding A8 suited, or in a coin flip at best. Especially if you do this multiple times at a table, a good player will wait for QQ, KK, or AA and catch you in the act.
4: Loses money, even though you are getting the odds to call you are most likely a dog.
5: Pot odds as described above
6: You lose money in the long run if he has AQ. You are going to lose or chop the pot about 32% of the time, thus losing 68% of the time. So, you are going to lose 18% of your total investment (50% minus 32% equals 18%). So if you have invested a total of $500 in hands at the table you are going to be down to $410 (losing $90) by using such a strategy given these are the cards both players hold.

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

"Ps. How are you going to control the editing sprew of people after seeying other responces?"

Great point...from now on, no more edited posts are allowed! Double-check before submitting. No more edits.

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

1. Explain my preflop RAISE action correctly-why I did what I did.

trying to rep a typo

2. Explain my preflop CALL action correctly-why I did what I did.

you have odds to call

3. Does my preflop RAISE play lose or win money in the long run?

lose

4. Does my preflop CALL play lose or win money in the long run (not given what he actually had)?

win

5. Explain specifically my preflop INSTA-call.

you have odds to call given how much money there was in the pot

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

[ QUOTE ]
"Ps. How are you going to control the editing sprew of people after seeying other responces?"

Great point...from now on, no more edited posts are allowed! Double-check before submitting. No more edits.

[/ QUOTE ]
No problem, I think I screwed myself with the bonus question though. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

[ QUOTE ]
"Ps. How are you going to control the editing sprew of people after seeying other responces?"

Great point...from now on, no more edited posts are allowed! Double-check before submitting. No more edits.

[/ QUOTE ]

No it doesn't really matter. Timestamp.

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

ah...

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

1. Explain my preflop RAISE action correctly-why I did what I did.

You were on tilt

2. Explain my preflop CALL action correctly-why I did what I did.

You were on tilt

3. Does my preflop RAISE play lose or win money in the long run?

Even if everyone on the table knows you are on tilt, it will lose you $ on the current hand. However, that image will make you money if you tighten up and start doing the same thing with AA/KK/QQ/AK+.

4. Does my preflop CALL play lose or win money in the long run (not given what he actually had)?

Depending on what the other players re-raising ranges are all in, and depending on if they have seen you make this raise before and fold. Either case its pretty marginal because of the odds the pot is laying you.

5. Explain specifically my preflop INSTA-call.

See 1 and 2 (You were on tilt)

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

hah, i got in a grammar edit before he disallowed editing!
i have way too much time on my hands today lol [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

This thread sucks...

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

im pretty sure its imposible to know if someone has edited if they dont want you to know. i will edit this post in 5 minutes to check my suspicion. feel free to quote this now for future verification.

as you can see, the timestamp didn't change. it is still before the below quote.

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

[ QUOTE ]
im pretty sure its imposible to know if someone has edited if they dont want you to know. i will edit this post in 5 minutes to check my suspicion. feel free to quote this now for future verification.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

damnit i lose anyway theres a gaping hole in my logic [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

Wait, wait!

A8s is YOUR LUCKY HAND!

(I don't get why you raised so much, though, if you minraise, people are much more likely to call, and since you never lose with A8s, you want people to call.)

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

Well guys, I am reading them carefully as they come...I wont do this ALL day of course, but hopefully it works pretty well and people are decently honest [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

By the way, people. Repping a misclick seems weird, since FT has a 'bet pot' button. I obviously don't know whether you use that button, but I do believe most people do.

So... this explanation makes more sense:

Are you a donk-n-go player? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Ninja smiley edit.

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, people. Repping a misclick seems weird, since FT has a 'bet pot' button. I obviously don't know whether you use that button, but I do believe most people do.

So... this explanation makes more sense:

Are you a donk-n-go player?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not speaking to the misclick or not debate, but FYI, at NL 100 and below, I raise pf 4x, so I raise to 4 instead of hitting the "bet pot" button that would make it 3.5.

And no, I have never played a sit-n-go.

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

[ QUOTE ]
3. it wins, against someone who isn't gonna start leveling with you, because they see the misclick and push with 98s and kjo and lots of hands that are &gt;&gt;&gt; a random hand and slightly greater than the bottom half of your pfr range

[/ QUOTE ]
are you serious? there is no way this is a winning play. im guessing the OP saw the aba vs ivey hand and thinks hes clever for copying it. if you pull this move most of the time you will win the blinds, and if you get put AI 95% of the time you will be an underdog or at best flipping. no one is going to push with 98s. He pushed UTG, people in UTG+1, hijack, etc are going to be tight in fear of people behind them having a better hand. people last to act still aren't going to push with 98s, AQs is about the worst you'll see.

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

HYCHACHACHAYCAHCHACYACHA

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3. it wins, against someone who isn't gonna start leveling with you, because they see the misclick and push with 98s and kjo and lots of hands that are &gt;&gt;&gt; a random hand and slightly greater than the bottom half of your pfr range

[/ QUOTE ]
are you serious? there is no way this is a winning play. im guessing the OP saw the aba vs ivey hand and thinks hes clever for copying it. if you pull this move most of the time you will win the blinds, and if you get put AI 95% of the time you will be an underdog or at best flipping. no one is going to push with 98s. He pushed UTG, people in UTG+1, hijack, etc are going to be tight in fear of people behind them having a better hand. people last to act still aren't going to push with 98s, AQs is about the worst you'll see.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make some good points...do you have an opinion pertaining to the contest, as in, what took place?

I do watch Aba20/Phil Ivey matches, but I've never seen the play you seem to be alluding to.

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

1) Presumably because you've mismoused, have lost your mind, and/or are on tilt and are desperately trying to run over the table for some reason.

2) Well once you've made the mistake of question 1) you are fairly pot-committed, not only that the pot is now offering you ~2.5-1 odds on your money and 43 of your children are now drowning in the pool better send in the rest of the team to try to bail them out.

3) Without a doubt this outrageously overly aggressive initial bet is a sure money loser.

4) The call after the raise is fairly automatic but will lose a small amount of money in the long run. The reason this call is automatic is because we have a table image to maintain and we need people to respect our raises.

5) As already stated we need to protect our chips and our table image. If we are going to play fast and loose we need to follow through on our initial action.

6) Granted that my opponent has AQ suited, my hand is only going to win 26.9% of the time. What this means is that my call is going to win about $54 over the long run, whereas folding would save me $57 so my call is going to cost about $3 every time I make it.

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

Hold the presses, I revise my opinion:

1) Presumably because you've mismoused, have lost your mind, and/or are on tilt and are desperately trying to run over the table for some reason.

2) Well once you've made the mistake of question 1) you are fairly pot-committed, not only that the pot is now offering you ~2.5-1 odds on your money and 43 of your children are now drowning in the pool better send in the rest of the team to try to bail them out.

3) Without a doubt this outrageously overly aggressive initial bet is a sure money loser.

4) The call after the raise is fairly automatic and will earn a modest amount of money in the long run. The reason this call is automatic is because we have a table image to maintain and we need people to respect our raises.

5) As already stated we need to protect our chips and our table image. If we are going to play fast and loose we need to follow through on our initial action.

6) Granted that my opponent has AQ suited, my hand is only going to win 26.9% of the time. What this means is that my call is going to win about $54 over the long run, whereas folding would save me $57. However we will also split the pot just over 5% of the time so our call here will really net us about $65 so we will earn $8 everytime we make this
play.

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

If I win, send me a PM to get my info. Thx.

1) You meant to type in 3 or 4, but hit 43.
2) You were on semi-tilt/shock, but also considered that you were getting good odds vs AK or KK type hands.
3) lose (due to running into AA)
4) lose (due to running into AA)
5) This is basically the same question as #2. Insta-call presumes either no thought was required or it was emotionally induced. So tilt &amp; the impulse to gamble played a factor.
6) You win $2.44. Seeing how if you fold it's $0. Calling costs you $57.45, but you have $59.89 worth of equity. So that leaves you a profit of $2.44.

Re: Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250
 

BB is a terrible player who was on a string of clicking the Bet pot button ahead of time.

You looked down and saw you had a hand that was a favorite against his automatic raising range.

Everyone else had fold checked and he had no time to uncheck his bet pot button before the action got to him.