Premonitions
 

I'm not sure what to call them, but premonitions will do. Sometimes I get these feelings that something will happen and then it immediately does. For instance, the other day I was at a restaruant and they gave out raffle tickets. I felt very strongly that we would win. We did. Also, sometimes when playing poker I get this feeling that my ducks will hit. They do. When I was a kid, in class, before having to give a presentation and waiting for my name to be called. Often, right before my name would be called I felt a strong wave of certainty that this would be it.

Skeptics, be skeptical, but I'm convinced I can tell the difference between times when I only think something may happen and times when I'm sure it will happen. As a skeptic, materialist, philosopher, believe me I have tested this as much as possible. (I'm more of a Nietzschean skeptic than Humean). I predict many of you will be like Hume and outright reject me and stop reading at this point.

First, alternative explanations I haven't thought of are certainly welcome, but I'm pretty sure I have this ability (it's very modest, basically worthless, and I cannot control it, mind you.)

I'm more curious how it is possible, given that I am a materialist. I think it has to do with the temporal structure of our minds. We experience time as a flux from past to future, but that doesn't mean time is ordered up in this way. Perhaps at certain times, our brains catch a glimpse into a different experience of time - one where future, present, and past exist simultaneously, like a spatial landscape. This is not totally pure conjecture, since a theory in physics, called block time, related to relativity, holds this very position.

Thoughts?

Re: Premonitions
 

Well, the bad news is, you won't get one person here who believes you, and most will probably use derogatory language, because of course...it's pretty silly.

Because I'm sure you understand the power of saliency to selectively affect recall and consciousness, I won't go into the explanations of what is really causing you to believe what you do...

If you are honest about wanting to test this 'power' of yours, then you need to write down every distinct premonition that is CLEARLY testable. I would start with poker...every time you have a PP, decide if it's going to hit or not, and write it down BEFORE the cards come. You'll find you're just wrong about your belief.

Edit: No reasonable theory of time, including block time, will account for premonitions. I, too, don't particularly believe in the idea of time as something that 'flows', but that doesn't change the way the mind operates. If you read some of the case studies of people whose perceptions have been disrupted by mental illness or brain damage, you will find all sorts of bizarre perceptions. This isn't evidence that time actually jumps around and 99.9% of the population is missing it...it's evidence that the brain is organizing the way we perceive things, and sometimes it can get really messed up.

Don't confuse a perception with proof of that perception.

Re: Premonitions
 

I used to believe I was somewhat "psychic" as well, then I realized I was counting the hits but ignorning the misses.

Re: Premonitions
 

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I used to believe I was somewhat "psychic" as well, then I realized I was counting the hits but ignorning the misses.

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Were you the one who made the thread about it, including high school occurances and some journal you kept or something? That was a long thread, but it was interesting, because it shows the avenues and power available to us to find patterns in our lives and see what we want to see.

I don't think dismissing you out of hand, OP, is necessary. Just submit your gift to rigorous testing. It shouldnt be that hard. Objectively compare your results to what you would expect from chance. However, this will really only convince you. In order to convince us you are gonna have to provide for the authenticity of your experiment.

Re: Premonitions
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you are honest about wanting to test this 'power' of yours, then you need to write down every distinct premonition that is CLEARLY testable. I would start with poker...every time you have a PP, decide if it's going to hit or not, and write it down BEFORE the cards come. You'll find you're just wrong about your belief.


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Unfortunately, it's only happened about 10 times in my entire life, so this would not work. However, because I am pretty rigorous with testing my beliefs, I knew that there was something distinct about THIS time, that it was for real. In other words, this familiar feeling is unmistakable.

Look, the point was not to brag, because it's nothing special. Referring to it as my 'power' is funny, because, please...

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Because I'm sure you understand the power of saliency to selectively affect recall and consciousness, I won't go into the explanations of what is really causing you to believe what you do...



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I don't, please enlighten me. I'm aware that people often mistake things for metaphysical delusions, and I don't fall into that category. Nothing about it makes me want to think I am special, actually I'm more concerned with the philosophical implications, if it is real. If it is not, as you say, then the psychological implication is interesting to.

Re: Premonitions
 

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I used to believe I was somewhat "psychic" as well, then I realized I was counting the hits but ignorning the misses.



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Right, but I don't consider myself any sort of psychic. And if this is a power, it's pretty pathetic since I've only experienced it about 10 times in my life. Of those approximately 10 times, each time has been right. But I cannot guess future events at will - the feeling comes to me. Also, it's only ever connected with something that strongly affects me, and that is in the very immediate future.

Re: Premonitions
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you are honest about wanting to test this 'power' of yours, then you need to write down every distinct premonition that is CLEARLY testable. I would start with poker...every time you have a PP, decide if it's going to hit or not, and write it down BEFORE the cards come. You'll find you're just wrong about your belief.


[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately, it's only happened about 10 times in my entire life, so this would not work. However, because I am pretty rigorous with testing my beliefs, I knew that there was something distinct about THIS time, that it was for real. In other words, this familiar feeling is unmistakable.

Look, the point was not to brag, because it's nothing special. Referring to it as my 'power' is funny, because, please...

[ QUOTE ]
Because I'm sure you understand the power of saliency to selectively affect recall and consciousness, I won't go into the explanations of what is really causing you to believe what you do...



[/ QUOTE ]

I don't, please enlighten me. I'm aware that people often mistake things for metaphysical delusions, and I don't fall into that category. Nothing about it makes me want to think I am special, actually I'm more concerned with the philosophical implications, if it is real. If it is not, as you say, then the psychological implication is interesting to.

[/ QUOTE ]


Hmm...well, the feeling of 'this time felt different' isn't really as convincing as it sounds at first glance, even if you 'had that feeling' right away. Because there is really no way for anyone, even you, to know if you had that feeling right away, unless you wrote it down or recorded it somehow. Human memory is just to easy to manipulate on that score. When you remember an event, that is a new 'draft' of what you think happened, but ALSO when you remember what if felt like to you at the time you first experienced it, you are again rewriting a new draft. There isn't much of an editing process, so things can easily get added or subtracted, and there isn't some master copy against which to check. So if at some point you rewrote a convincing draft that included this extra strong feeling before you won, there is absolutely no way for your memory to find out it was wrong, and for some purposes, you now really did feel that way beforehand.

Unfortunately, things like winning the lottery are just the sorts of things that make you more likely to have one of these 'favorable rewrites.' The problem now arises...we say you should write down every time you feel this extra strong feeling but BEFORE any outcome. You might very well never write anything down ever again. Because you might not be having this strong feeling until AFTER the outcome, and then just editing it in as being before, with your memory none the wiser. So, you would probably be in the position of 'forgetting to be quick enough to write these feelings down!' all of the time, and yet still experiencing this strong feeling. Either that or the feeling would go away entirely. Or it wouldn't, you'd have it, write them down, and be right about as expected by chance. Or you have premonitions. I'd be fascinated to see the results. Unfortunately I'm going to have to say beforehand I can only take them with a grain of salt, but hey, you probably care a lot more about convincing yourself than some random internet guy, so I say go for it.

Re: Premonitions
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you are honest about wanting to test this 'power' of yours, then you need to write down every distinct premonition that is CLEARLY testable. I would start with poker...every time you have a PP, decide if it's going to hit or not, and write it down BEFORE the cards come. You'll find you're just wrong about your belief.


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Unfortunately, it's only happened about 10 times in my entire life, so this would not work.

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This is an excuse. What difference could it possibly make how many times you've experienced it? None. The next time you get that special funny feeling, write it down.

Re: Premonitions
 

There are a few of the fringe sciences that I believe a small percentage of them must be eventually proved true. Premonitions, Remote viewing, Telepathy, The ability to barely affect rng's, collective conciousness, time travel, certain homeopathy techinques and parellel universes are some of the more likely fringe areas. Crystal healing, telekensis, imortality, Remote Healing, Lucky charms, superstitions, Astrology, Religious Items that make miraclous claims and the rest of homeopathy aren't as likey to be proved true. At least you have choosen a item with a low but real possibility.

Re: Premonitions
 

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This is an excuse. What difference could it possibly make how many times you've experienced it? None. The next time you get that special funny feeling, write it down.


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I was only saying that since it's so rare, it may take my whole life to test it and even then there are too few samples to make any conclusive data. But I will write it down next time... unless talking about it jinxed it - no wait i don't believe in that.

Re: Premonitions
 

That was informative, I appreciate the thoughtful post.

I wonder if being conscious about trying to have a premonition might block it out, though. Any time I've tried, nothing happened; or if I think too much about it, it might be a 'false premonition,' where I end up convincing myself its real, and then nothing happens.

If that's true, maybe its not scientifically testable, so then it obviously would require too much faith even on the part of the one having the 'premonition.' Because of the multiple drafts you spoke of, I could be dead wrong.

But I'm sure I'll forget all about this come my next premonition and 'forget' to write it down.

Re: Premonitions
 

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That was informative, I appreciate the thoughtful post.

I wonder if being conscious about trying to have a premonition might block it out, though. Any time I've tried, nothing happened; or if I think too much about it, it might be a 'false premonition,' where I end up convincing myself its real, and then nothing happens.

If that's true, maybe its not scientifically testable, so then it obviously would require too much faith even on the part of the one having the 'premonition.' Because of the multiple drafts you spoke of, I could be dead wrong.

But I'm sure I'll forget all about this come my next premonition and 'forget' to write it down.

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Well, if you accept my hypothesis that you are rewriting your memory to include a strong feeling before the event, when in actuality you felt nothing before the event (and you don't need to accept this at all) then it would make sense that being aware of it would end your premonitions. You will be much less likely to rewrite your memory. But thats only for as long as you are aware of it on some level.

Re: Premonitions
 

I don't know if this is going to add much to what has already been posted, but my suspicion is that if we were to look at major lottery winners, few would say that they bought a ticket thinking they could not win, and pass a lie detector test! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Premonitions
 

If England retain the ashes don't forget I knew we would. If we don't I knew that too really.

What you think of the Panesar chappie?

chez

Re: Premonitions
 

I was going to write something but I'm tired.

Just fill in what you think I'd say and pretend I posted it.

Re: Premonitions
 

Gee, I am ready to swallow my pride if this was true and defer to your psychic powers over mine. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Is Panesar the one day wonder boy?

PS Great spirit in the game, I see that you guys are not going to give up without a fight! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Premonitions
 

Christians are sooooooooooo stupid!

-college kid

Re: Premonitions
 

OP, I know what you're talking about, and have experienced it, too. But I chalk up the difference between "knowing" something's going to happen and "thinking" it will, as you say, to the way it makes you feel when you're proven right (or wrong). I think the mental process we're talking about here happens so quickly that it's impossible to separate the feeling from the outcome.

Re: Premonitions
 

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Christians are sooooooooooo stupid!

-college kid

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I wet the bed until I was 19. At least, I hope I'll be done before I turn 20.

-collegekid

Re: Premonitions
 

chez?

Are you there? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Premonitions
 

vhawk's super long post is likely to be correct. I've studied memory and the mind a fair bit and it's incredible how "false" memories really are. You add a ton in and subtract a ton out.

What probably happens is that you have these short fleeting "feelings" more often than you think. When you were wrong you probably dismiss it and never think about it again. Those ten times you were right it probably became a big deal, you thought about it a lot, etc. and you convinced yourself that you this feeling was somehow "stronger" than other feelings you've had.

How many times do you have a feeling you are going to get sucked out? Maybe something about that specific time you hit that was the "special premonition" made it more salient in your mind. Perhaps you were tired, had been drinking, just got laid, etc. It's probable that your emotional state got wrapped up into the mix and caused you to believe something incredible had happened.

Just my 2 cents anyway.

As humans, we are pretty good at convincing ourselves of some pretty strange things.

Re: Premonitions
 

[ QUOTE ]
chez?

Are you there? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Still there? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Premonitions
 

You probably only remember the times these "feelings" came out with the outcome you "predicted." Humans have a tendency to do that. Sometimes when I am about to call someone, they call me as I pick up the phone. I dont consider that premonition because of the thousands of other times where that didn't happen.

There is no reason for us to remember results that didn;t happen, so its very likely that this has happened to you many times and the result was that the thing didnt happen. You dont remember it because there is no reason to.

Premonition doesn't exist.

Re: Premonitions
 

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Premonition doesn't exist.

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If that's true, then how do you explain this note that I wrote in word 3 days ago:

"You probably only remember the times these "feelings" came out with the outcome you "predicted." Humans have a tendency to do that. Sometimes when I am about to call someone, they call me as I pick up the phone. I dont consider that premonition because of the thousands of other times where that didn't happen.

There is no reason for us to remember results that didn;t happen, so its very likely that this has happened to you many times and the result was that the thing didnt happen. You dont remember it because there is no reason to."

Re: Premonitions
 

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[ QUOTE ]

Premonition doesn't exist.

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If that's true, then how do you explain this note that I wrote in word 3 days ago:

"You probably only remember the times these "feelings" came out with the outcome you "predicted." Humans have a tendency to do that. Sometimes when I am about to call someone, they call me as I pick up the phone. I dont consider that premonition because of the thousands of other times where that didn't happen.

There is no reason for us to remember results that didn;t happen, so its very likely that this has happened to you many times and the result was that the thing didnt happen. You dont remember it because there is no reason to."

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Its because my pet monkey just typed romeo and juliet on a typewriter.