Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

Game would be played on January 8 in Glendale, AZ.

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

Other

WAKE FOREST!!







j/k. Michigan easily.

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

UCLA, obv.

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

Awesome that everyone believes Michigan is the 2nd best team and yet the other thread had everyone clamouring for Florida to be in the title game. As I write this, Florida has 0 votes, Michigan 16.

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

Everyone not voting for LSU is wrong. Now that that is out of the way, cue Michigan fans to start flaming every team that is not Michigan.

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

Whats with all the love for the 2 loss LSU team? Including a 13 point loss to Florida on the road.

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

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Whats with all the love for the 2 loss LSU team? Including a 13 point loss to Florida on the road.

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They are the overall most talented team in college football not named Ohio State.

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

Not one of those teams is less than a seven point dog to OSU.

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

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Whats with all the love for the 2 loss LSU team? Including a 13 point loss to Florida on the road.

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They are the overall most talented team in college football not named Ohio State.

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And they consistently do not play up to their ability. What makes you think against the best team in the country it will be any different? Michigan beats OSU on a neutral field more often than LSU does.

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

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And they consistently do not play up to their ability. What makes you think against the best team in the country it will be any different? Michigan beats OSU on a neutral field more often than LSU does.

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You say they consistently do not play up to their ability, I say they don't consistently play up to their ability, and there is a large difference in the two, however when LSU does play up to their ability they are basically a coin flip to win vs OSU on a neutral field. Where its my belief that Michigan is at best a 25% shot to beat OSU on a neutral field.

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

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Whats with all the love for the 2 loss LSU team? Including a 13 point loss to Florida on the road.

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They are the overall most talented team in college football not named Ohio State.

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They might have a lot of talent, but that doesn't mean they have the best chance of beating OSU. Michigan lost to them by three points @OSU, with their best player just coming of arthroscopic surgery.

Most raw talent != best team. I personally wouldn't agree that they have more talent then the Wolverines, but my point is that even if they did, there are more things that go into being a good team then having talent. For starters: size, strength, speed, conditioning, experience, coaching and awareness.

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

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And they consistently do not play up to their ability. What makes you think against the best team in the country it will be any different? Michigan beats OSU on a neutral field more often than LSU does.

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You say they consistently do not play up to their ability, I say they don't consistently play up to their ability, and there is a large difference in the two, however when LSU does play up to their ability they are basically a coin flip to win vs OSU on a neutral field. Where its my belief that Michigan is at best a 25% shot to beat OSU on a neutral field.

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25% is insanely low. Like not in the right ballpark.

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

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And they consistently do not play up to their ability. What makes you think against the best team in the country it will be any different? Michigan beats OSU on a neutral field more often than LSU does.

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You say they consistently do not play up to their ability, I say they don't consistently play up to their ability, and there is a large difference in the two, however when LSU does play up to their ability they are basically a coin flip to win vs OSU on a neutral field. Where its my belief that Michigan is at best a 25% shot to beat OSU on a neutral field.

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25% is insanely low. Like not in the right ballpark.

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If there were a rematch on a neutral field what do you think the line on the game would be?

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

how'd you decide on the choices for the poll?

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

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And they consistently do not play up to their ability. What makes you think against the best team in the country it will be any different? Michigan beats OSU on a neutral field more often than LSU does.

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You say they consistently do not play up to their ability, I say they don't consistently play up to their ability, and there is a large difference in the two, however when LSU does play up to their ability they are basically a coin flip to win vs OSU on a neutral field. Where its my belief that Michigan is at best a 25% shot to beat OSU on a neutral field.

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That's the thing, they so rarely do play how they are capable of that they don't have the best chance of beating OSU. A slightly less talented UMich that rarely makes mistakes and is much more consistent has a better shot- in one game or over any sample size. FWIW I would give Michigan better than a 25% shot.

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

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A slightly less talented UMich that rarely makes mistakes and is much more consistent has a better shot

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what team have you been watching?

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FWIW I would give Michigan better than a 25% shot.

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again, rematch vs OSU on neutral field, what line do you put on the game?

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

This is going to sound bad, but I don't even know how a "line" works. If I had to estimate though, I would put Michigan's chances of winning, in a neutral location, at ~45%.

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

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how'd you decide on the choices for the poll?

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I tried to think of every team that someone could reasonably vote for. Maybe I should have included a few more teams, but those teams wouldn't receive more than a couple votes at most anyway.

If your question is in regards to Notre Dame, I honestly feel that every team I listed is better. Also, Ohio State rolled them in the Fiesta Bowl last year + Michigan destroyed them this year + Notre Dame barely beat a Michigan State team that Ohio State smoked.

Also I left off Wisconsin, because although they might be better than some of the teams I listed, I think it is harder to argue they would have a good chance to beat Ohio State based on games involving common opponents (namely Michigan).

If you'd like to select a team I didn't list, feel free to pick other and specify who (just be prepared to be laughed at). [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

Michigan. And even that's a stretch for them to win.

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

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what team have you been watching?

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A team that is very solid and consistent when Manningham is healthy. They do not beat themselves.

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again, rematch vs OSU on neutral field, what line do you put on the game?

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I'm not entirely sure about a line, but I would give Michigan around a 40% chance to win. I'm from Michigan and go to school in Louisiana, so I see plenty of LSU and UMich. All the games I've seen plus the first OSU/Mich game makes me lean toward Michigan when comparing them to LSU.

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

'91 Huskies.

b

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

this thread, obviously, makes me vomit

Michigan is at best 25% to beat Ohio State on a nuetral field and that is a reach

I don't know how many ways to state this:
Ohio State thoroughly owned the first match-up between the two teams and would be expected to again.
I'm not sure what you guys look at when watching a football game, but looking at the final score is the equivalent to results-oriented bs thinking in playing poker.
tOSU did whatever it wanted, whenever it wanted with the ball.
Ohio State had 503 yards on 70 offensive plays. That is what, 7.2 ypp or so.
Michigan had a very respectable 397 yards on 65 plays...6.1 ypp.
That is over a full yard per play difference. Yards per play is the best predictor of points scored by any team. A one yard per play difference works out to roughly 8 points difference. Here, you have over a 9 points difference between the teams.

Then, you get into the turnovers. Turnovers appear to be dumb luck. Often, viewing a game, they are just that. However, there are precursors and situations that do force a high number of turnovers. It's not based on previous turnovers in a game. Turnovers in one game are a terrible predictor of turnovers in another. There are a few things that are much better. They are tackles for loss per play run and the number of plays run in 3rd and 8 or longer situations. In both of those, Ohio State was expected to have an edge and did indeed have the edge in the game.

Basically, the line going in was Ohio State -7. Everything that happened on the field suggested that Michigan was outplayed by more than 7 points...much closer to 12-15 range. It was an outlier final score for Michigan to only lose by 3 points. Giving my rudimentary range of outcomes (my handicapping tools aren't that refined yet), it was a top 20% outcome for Michigan.
Even allowing for a nuetral field instead of at Ohio State, there is no way any smart money should get anywhere near the Wolverines at a 7 point spread.
Michigan has little chance.

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

now, the 2nd part

LSU compared to Michigan

I don't know how to state it any clearer, but LSU is a better team than Michigan and would be favored over them on a nuetral field with an efficient market.

lets go position by position

QB: Jamarcus Russell (Matt Flynn) v Chad Henne
Henne is a game manager at best. Though he has slowly improved throughout his career, he is not a QB that will lead Michigan to any victories. Henne struggles to make plays and to move along in his progressions. He often fixes in on a target. He has gotten better about not forcing the ball to that target for interceptions, but he still is not a guy who is going to make a big play for the team. Russell can make the big play, but is also a risk-taker who will make the big play for the other team. He does a below average job at presnap reads, but gets through progressions quick, has a strong arm, and can create on his own. He isn't a scrambler, but can pull off the big run when needed. Matt Flynn is a capable back-up, who, IMO, is a better version of Chad Henne.

edge: Big LSU

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

Notre Dame would destroy OSU.

LSU v Mich
 

Running Backs: Keiland Willams, Allie Broussard, Justin Vincent, Holliday, and Jacob Hester v Michael Hart, Grady, Minor, and Jackson

LSU has at least 3 tailbacks that should start at more than 80% of BCS conference teams. They feature Keiland Williams as the season has gone on and Jacob Hester is the reliable fullback. Hester makes more big plays than any fullback in the country, including Brian Leonard. He is great on the quick hitter and can dance through a tight spot or pound forward for a yard or two. He is a tremendous weapon catching the ball. Keiland Williams is quick and powerful. He fits into the lineage of LSU tailbacks that now seem to be popping up all over the NFL. Broussard and Vincent have all started and been huge stars at one time or another in their careers. Both are still not what they once were, but are very capable back-ups that allow LSU to hit their opponents with fresh, physical backs over and over. Holliday is a 5'6" lightning bolt that comes in for the quick surprises once or twice per game. He is averaging over 12 ypc! Defenses don't know what hit them.

Michael Hart is a great back who has excelled once again this year. His body withstood the pounding this season due to better backups and weaker opponents. Everyone knows how great Michael Hart is...this guy is heisman potential. Michigan's backups, much like LSU's, are quality guys that could start at many div1A schools.

Hart is the best back, but LSU has the depth and the better fullback.

edge: EVEN

Re: LSU v Mich
 

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Running Backs: Keiland Willams, Allie Broussard, Justin Vincent, Holliday, and Jacob Hester v Michael Hart, Grady, Minor, and Jackson

LSU has at least 3 tailbacks that should start at more than 80% of BCS conference teams. They feature Keiland Williams as the season has gone on and Jacob Hester is the reliable fullback. Hester makes more big plays than any fullback in the country, including Brian Leonard. He is great on the quick hitter and can dance through a tight spot or pound forward for a yard or two. He is a tremendous weapon catching the ball. Keiland Williams is quick and powerful. He fits into the lineage of LSU tailbacks that now seem to be popping up all over the NFL. Broussard and Vincent have all started and been huge stars at one time or another in their careers. Both are still not what they once were, but are very capable back-ups that allow LSU to hit their opponents with fresh, physical backs over and over. Holliday is a 5'6" lightning bolt that comes in for the quick surprises once or twice per game. He is averaging over 12 ypc! Defenses don't know what hit them.

Michael Hart is a great back who has excelled once again this year. His body withstood the pounding this season due to better backups and weaker opponents. Everyone knows how great Michael Hart is...this guy is heisman potential. Michigan's backups, much like LSU's, are quality guys that could start at many div1A schools.

Hart is the best back, but LSU has the depth and the better fullback.

edge: EVEN

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Comparing running backs and because LSU has better backups and fullbacks it's even?

lol

Re: LSU v Mich
 

wide receivers

Davis, Doucett, and Bowe v Manningham, Breaston, Arrington, and Butler

well, the only team with a better set of wideouts than LSU is SC. Davis, Doucett, and Bowe are quick and talented. They run good routes and make catches. No defense in the country has enough talent to hold them down. Their only downfall is they aren't the best rush blockers.
Manningham runs routes poor, but has the speed and hands to go deep. Breaston has been a disappointing speed only guy. Arrington is the best route runner on Michigan, but doesn't break away often enough. The big problem in this is separating how much the two qbs play a role. However, there is just too much talented speed on LSU. They are quicker than the Michigan receivers and run better routes.

edge: LSU

Re: LSU v Mich
 

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Running Backs: Keiland Willams, Allie Broussard, Justin Vincent, Holliday, and Jacob Hester v Michael Hart, Grady, Minor, and Jackson

LSU has at least 3 tailbacks that should start at more than 80% of BCS conference teams. They feature Keiland Williams as the season has gone on and Jacob Hester is the reliable fullback. Hester makes more big plays than any fullback in the country, including Brian Leonard. He is great on the quick hitter and can dance through a tight spot or pound forward for a yard or two. He is a tremendous weapon catching the ball. Keiland Williams is quick and powerful. He fits into the lineage of LSU tailbacks that now seem to be popping up all over the NFL. Broussard and Vincent have all started and been huge stars at one time or another in their careers. Both are still not what they once were, but are very capable back-ups that allow LSU to hit their opponents with fresh, physical backs over and over. Holliday is a 5'6" lightning bolt that comes in for the quick surprises once or twice per game. He is averaging over 12 ypc! Defenses don't know what hit them.

Michael Hart is a great back who has excelled once again this year. His body withstood the pounding this season due to better backups and weaker opponents. Everyone knows how great Michael Hart is...this guy is heisman potential. Michigan's backups, much like LSU's, are quality guys that could start at many div1A schools.

Hart is the best back, but LSU has the depth and the better fullback.

edge: EVEN

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Comparing running backs and because LSU has better backups and fullbacks it's even?

lol

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perhaps, I should go with the LSU 4.62 ypc to Michigan's 4.47 ypc. do I need to bring up Hester's 34 catches for 257 and 3 TDs to further solidify the importance of the fullback?

Re: LSU v Mich
 

offensive line

I don't evaluate these guys much. Both are quite good. Both only allow 1.5 sacks per game. LSU has the better rushing yards per play. LSU has faced stiffer defenses throughout the year.
From that breakdown

EDGE: slight LSU

Re: Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?
 

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how'd you decide on the choices for the poll?

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Do you mean why isn't ND there? The season is over. Nobody has to pretend that ND is a top 10 team anymore.

Re: LSU v Mich
 

onto defense:

LSU stats
3.25 sacks per game
5.58 tfl per game
allowed 3.03 ypc
3rd in pass efficiency defense
4.10 ypp
238.75 ypg
12.50 ppg

Michigan stats
3.42 sacks per game
7.33 tfl per game
1.86 ypc
18th in pass efficiency defense
4.23 ypp
254.08 ypg
14.58 ppg


man...both defenses rock the socks
Michigan does a better job at creating turnovers. LSU does a better job at holding opponents from scoring.
The defensive line is an edge for Michigan, because of their ability to create turnovers. Man, that is hard to say given LSU has Dorsey and Jean-Francois anchoring their d-line. The secondary edge goes to LSU. They've got more speed, depth, and physicalness. They are actually one of the few secondaries that has enough bodies to attempt to match-up verse SC or Ohio St. Linebackers are both talented squads and even in my eyes.

EDGE: EVEN

Re: LSU v Mich
 

sorry, got tired the last post and decided to wrap it up. It doesn't matter anyway as internet boards are all about stating a position and becoming more entrenched in that position no matter what.

I just laid out the case for why LSU is clearly the choice in this poll. I'm not even sure it's that close.

Re: LSU v Mich
 

LSU vs. Louisville, Florida, and SC?

Re: LSU v Mich
 

LSU can play with anyone any day. When Jamarcus decides to play like Steve Young and not Mike Vick he's got a long NFL career ahead of him.