25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

Part 1 of this hand IS HERE

Lots of good responses in that thread already. Since that one was already getting kinda long I decided to start another one about the turn play since my hand gets better but I still only have 9-high and we're still v deep.

The hand is here:


I have ~$15,000, Rounder9999 covers. He's a very good player. I have hardly any hands vs him but from what I can tell he's no lag but no tag...more like slag. He's involved in alot of pots.

He's been playing back at me a bit preflop (and on the flop a couple times). For the most part I've folded like every time. I pretty sure he thinks I'm weak-tight. I'm not playing my usual aggro game.

Folds to me on the button and I raise to $175 with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Rounder9999 repops to $625 from the SB. I call.

Flop ($1300) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

He bets $1250. My action was debated in the previous thread. In the actual hand I just called.

Turn ($3800): Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] giving me a double-gutter to go along with my flush draw

He checks. Now what?

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

bet 2500 and shove if he raises or something silly like that. if he calls and checks then i'm torn for plan for a river blank. obv shove if you bluff

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

with this board/action the pot is usually going to be yours regardless of whether you get there or not. 3k turn. jam river if you miss unless it is Ao/Ko, then give him the eyeball and decide.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

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bet 2500 and shove if he raises or something silly like that. if he calls and checks then i'm torn for plan for a river blank. obv shove if you bluff

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that is exactly what i was going to say duck.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

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bet 2500 and shove if he raises or something silly like that.

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I bet ~2500 here also but if he c/r I don't know about pushing: any c/r would probably be to about 7500ish if not more leaving rounder with about 6000 left. if he has any semblance of a hand he's not going to fold at that point.

Also, if he calls and checks river it's an easy check if you miss. If a tough opponent c/calls the turn it's because he doubts you have anything due to your flop line. I don't think a river push will work often enough as he should be making his mind up on the turn.

I know, information changes on the river if you fire again, yada yada yada. But good luck getting him to fold after he's c/called turn.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

my point about pushing after he c/r - i realize he won't fold any hand that he could have, but often he has no hand at all, just A high or a low PP, so he will fold that. and when he has a low pair connected with the board, he will often let it go despite the odds bc of the scary board and our line looks quite strong. i think the times you save yourself 6k (if it gets all in we're losing 4k in equity) are outweighed by him occasionally folding the entire pot, when we can like 12k in equity or something.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

Theoretically, if we check the turn through for whatever reason (if he checkraises he's pot committed and calling a shove in all likelihood) and the river comes a non-diamond ten, how do we feel about getting all the money in the pot, as AK suddenly gets very scary? I know it's not a big consideration, but it just popped into my head, as I was thinking about the likelihood of getting checkraised vs. the probability of hitting on the river vs. the probability of getting paid off on the river and whatnot.

If we bet 2500 and he folds, win 3800
If we bet 2500 and he checkraises, he probably calls a push and thus you've got maybe 13.5 outs (sometimes he has a set/higher flush draw or something) giving you about 30% equity, or you're losing something like 4K on average if my math is right.
If we bet 2500 and he calls, you'll still hit 30% of the time on the river. Let's say you check behind if you miss. When you hit, let's say he calls a 5Kish bet. So 30% of the time you win 11K.

Summarizing, bet 2500:
if he folds 25% of the time, checkraises 25, and calls 50 (I pulled those numbers out of my ass) your EV of betting is:
.25*3800 + .25*(-4000) + .5*.3*11000-2500 = -900. That's not so good. Of course, play with those percentages. It's really bad if he checkraises us frequently. I think I also assumed that he'd call all the time a river bet there. So, play with the precentages and you can see what you like.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

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my point about pushing after he c/r - i realize he won't fold any hand that he could have, but often he has no hand at all, just A high or a low PP, so he will fold that. and when he has a low pair connected with the board, he will often let it go despite the odds bc of the scary board and our line looks quite strong. i think the times you save yourself 6k (if it gets all in we're losing 4k in equity) are outweighed by him occasionally folding the entire pot, when we can like 12k in equity or something.

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and I think you're absolutely insane. a c/r here is not going to be ace high or a low PP anywhere near as often as you think.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

What hands do you think he c/r's with?

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

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my point about pushing after he c/r - i realize he won't fold any hand that he could have, but often he has no hand at all, just A high or a low PP, so he will fold that. and when he has a low pair connected with the board, he will often let it go despite the odds bc of the scary board and our line looks quite strong. i think the times you save yourself 6k (if it gets all in we're losing 4k in equity) are outweighed by him occasionally folding the entire pot, when we can like 12k in equity or something.

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and I think you're absolutely insane. a c/r here is not going to be ace high or a low PP anywhere near as often as you think.

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Totally agree.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

bet 2500, fold to an all in? I'm kind of lazy and didn't do the math on the draw. If he makes a smaller c/r you've gotta call and check down the river if you miss. Very interesting hand/discussion by the way, nice going.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

So is checking behind here not an option?

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

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So is checking behind here not an option?

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you can't win every hand by checking, moron.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

Anyone like a weak lead to induce the CR, then an insta- shove over the top of it? I like this line a little more because then he actually isn't getting great pot odds to call with his supposed overpair?

On the contrary, if we bet 2/3-4/5 and he CR's, then he might not let it go b/c it's such good pot odds.

Am I just psycho?

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

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Anyone like a weak lead to induce the CR, then an insta- shove over the top of it? I like this line a little more because then he actually isn't getting great pot odds to call with his supposed overpair?

On the contrary, if we bet 2/3-4/5 and he CR's, then he might not let it go b/c it's such good pot odds.

Am I just psycho?

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and this bet would represent what exactly?

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

2350-2950 on the turn.

If he check raises I'd immediately get sick to my stomach but I don't think I like shoving because we have almost no FE. I'm sure he likes to play an aggro game but us calling the flop and then betting the turn is not usually a draw and not usually something that is playing for pot control or a small pot in call down mode, so I think a CR bluff by him would be crazy without the goods, hence our lack of FE for a b3b given stack sizes.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

check. once you just call the flop you should check the turn. calling the flop and then betting the turn is exactly what you DON'T want - only playing a big pot as a dog. With one card to come, you're not in good shape at all if you get it in here...

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

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check. once you just call the flop you should check the turn. calling the flop and then betting the turn is exactly what you DON'T want - only playing a big pot as a dog. With one card to come, you're not in good shape at all if you get it in here...

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FE, my furry little friend.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

umm as played take free card? dont reopen the betting as u took a line that favored pot control. especially since ur hand improved...May be im just weak... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] I am only a 2/4 player afterall. it's interesting to here high stakes player discuss hands. way more aggro and creative.

still... as played i would take a free card. if u think he folds over 50% of the time.. i dont mind a bet. if he sees u as weak tight, u gotta be careful. he sees u as cuatious si similarly he would be cautious. Most good players will have the goods when big pots comedown to the turn and river.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

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check. once you just call the flop you should check the turn. calling the flop and then betting the turn is exactly what you DON'T want - only playing a big pot as a dog. With one card to come, you're not in good shape at all if you get it in here...

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FE, my furry little friend.

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You don't have much. And this deep you want to win a big pot with a big hand. The chance to do that was on the flop. I would have raised the flop. But once you don't, I definitely do not want to play a big pot on the turn...

Edit: Bluffing this turn changes your awesome draw into ATC. He either folds (doesn't matter what your hand is) or he pushes (you get it all in as a dog). I don't like the line of call flop, bet turn at all...

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

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FE, my furry little friend.

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You don't have much.

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You don't think the turn check often represents villain giving up? I do.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

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FE, my furry little friend.

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You don't have much.

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You don't think the turn check often represents villain giving up? I do.

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Do you expect villain to be betting AJ again on the turn? QQ? I expect a lot of villains to check and evaluate w/ overpairs here.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

I think its really hard for villan to put much more money in the pot, let alone CR, without 2 pair or better.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

people who advocate betting the turn here, why do you like that over raising the flop? It seems a lot worse to me. I can understand calling flop to raise the turn if he bets. But if you call the flop and bet the turn when he checks then I think you should just be raising the flop for sure.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

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people who advocate betting the turn here, why do you like that over raising the flop? It seems a lot worse to me. I can understand calling flop to raise the turn if he bets. But if you call the flop and bet the turn when he checks then I think you should just be raising the flop for sure.

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well I can't speak on behalf of those who wanted to just call thef lop, but given that we did once the other guy checks there's still a good chance villain has nothing. don't be afraid of getting checkraised: be afraid of checking behind and eventually seeing his AK or random junk win the pot

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

why can't you bet and take it down on the river after checking the turn? make a small "I have top pair and think you will call with your second pair" type bet...

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

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bet 2500 and shove if he raises or something silly like that. if he calls and checks then i'm torn for plan for a river blank. obv shove if you bluff

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i like this but u have to wonder what hands he is checkraising turn with. AA checkraising turn would be very weird. i think that a turn c/r would be a bluff OR a hand he will lay down to a push a sufficiently large percentage of the time. i think river is just depending on history. just give up if he thinks you are out of line often, shove if he doesn't.

edit: i think JJ and QQ are sufficiently believable holding for you to shove the river if he checkcalls, so i shove

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

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why can't you bet and take it down on the river after checking the turn? make a small "I have top pair and think you will call with your second pair" type bet...

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a) He might bluff the river keeping you from making a move (unless you have cardshark-sized balls)
b) He might call you with hands he would have given up with on the river out of fear of playing a big pot OOP but is now suspicious of your call/check/bet line (TPGK, second pair, AK, etc)
c) He might c/r the river with air since your line screams one-pair hand at best
d) Metagame considerations regarding betting the turn with made hands and getting paid off in future spots

That's all I can think of.

Note this isn't an argument against betting the river as you could argue that the first three are remote/non-applicable possibilities and the last one isn't important enough if the other 3 aren't operative. But it's an argument for why if you're going to make a move on the pot it should be on the turn not the river.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

I definitely hear those reasons, but to me it still seems like the best option for winning a big pot (which should be your primary consideration this deep) is to raise the flop. This also generates most fold equity because on this draw heavy board you would raise the flop with a strong made hand to protect and for value.

Once you flat call the flop, betting the turn is a pure bluff, since you won't have odds to call a push, and he is fairly unlikely to c/c the turn, IMO, with these stack sizes (although if you thought he would c/c the turn with an overpair here, then betting the turn is back to a semi-bluff and considerably better).

Checking the turn somewhat reduces your chances of stealing on the river (for the reasons you mentioned) but it also increases your chances of winning a big hand (particularly if you hit a straight which will be disguised). All in all, it still looks to me like flat calling flop and betting the turn in this spot is the worst option.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

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Checking the turn somewhat reduces your chances of stealing on the river (for the reasons you mentioned) but it also increases your chances of winning a big hand (particularly if you hit a straight which will be disguised). All in all, it still looks to me like flat calling flop and betting the turn in this spot is the worst option.

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checking the turn and betting the river doesn't SOMEWHAT decrease your chances of taking it down, it decreases them by i do not know how much but a godawful lot. we have to assume opponent is aware of the reverse implied odds of checkcalling a turnbet oop when having no info of what the river card or river action will be. the meta repercussions of it are kind of interesting though and i kinda think checking the draw here on turn here is pretty good for meta, atleast if you are usually a very agressive player. thoughts on that?

ps still undecided on flop.
ps2 drunk and coked up like [censored] crazy, sorry

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

checking and betting river unimproved is really bad imo for reasons fwf already stated. We just cant rep anything but one pair hands and busted draws by taking that line, and if we do check behind and hit, one pair hands generally wont pay off.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

It's pretty unlikely that opponent will push-raise the turn. It's overpot if he does so, and it's a ton of BBs.

We can call a pot-raise on the turn with our outs.

While I don't see a problem with raising the flop, I also don't think that raising the turn is weak. It represents something AJish.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

It's late (and I'm drunk atm gogogo me) but I wanted to get the results outta the way:

I bet $3100 and he checkraised all in.

I folded fk me.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

he prob had 3 of a kind.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

Personally I like a flop raise the best, although calls are in order some % of the time. If the flop is called, it's got to be with the intention of betting the turn. For the most part, this plays like a 3-bet preflop, continiuation bet, check/fold turn type of scenario. There's no way I let this guy see a river with crap, which is what he'll probably have often enough to make a turn bet profitable. He's not going to always raise the turn, and the times he calls, we'll have an opportunity to hit a pantload of outs, or possibly shove him off on the river if we feel that's appropriate.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

HEK,

These were very good threads. Thanks.


To those saying check the turn, there's basically NO hand that HEK could be holding here other than a draw that would check the turn. Our cards are essentially turned face up when we check here and when we hit we do not play for a large pot. We probably only extract value when on a River 7 and sometimes a T.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

jbrick i can think of a ton of made hands hek would/could check behind on this turn here.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

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jbrick i can think of a ton of made hands hek would/could check behind on this turn here.

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Actually, this deep, that's a very good point. NM.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

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and I think you're absolutely insane. a c/r here is not going to be ace high or a low PP anywhere near as often as you think.

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Pretty much never ever.

Re: 25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb\'s (PART TWO, turn play)
 

i dont think you should be betting the turn after calling flop. you have 1900 in the pot and he's giving you what you want-free card. if river pairs board or is a blank that prob adds value to his hand in his mind if he has a big pair (and also if he checked turn and now made boat). if this happens you only lost 1900 and had a legitamate shot at winning a big pot or possibly stacking him.
If you hit one of your cards on the river youll now get a bet or two from if he has a hand. also, there are a decent amount of bluff cards to come on the river that you could use if he does try to make value bet (although youd have to know his game and what hisrange likely is here). if he checks both turn and river it's pretty hard not to bluff though. i think that betting turn here will mostly lead to unecessary trouble...just logical to take the card and not get blown off the hand or be stuck on the river if he does in fact call turn and checks river--unlikely he'll now fold...