ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

Bellagio 30/60, at the time of this pot I'm up but he may not know this, I presume he's aware of who I am by this point. I def have not been splashing around yet.

Anyway, I open UTG with 99, folded to Justin on the button who 3bets, everyone folds and I call.

Flop is 642r, I check/call

Turn pairs either the 6 or the 4, putting a fd up. I check/call.

River is a 3, and I check/fold.


I'm looking for somewhere between misplayed on every street and utter brilliance.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

I might be missing something being fairly new here but how do you ever make this fold? The only information I've gained about Justin given your description is that he fired on every street.

You have the opportunity to c/r on every street or donk bet on the river.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

haha, you might be a vegas regular...

really, i think its good so long as justin is nontrickyspewy.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

lol! You might be a Vegas regular if....

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

i think justin was valuebetting AK

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

i've never played holdem with justin before and unless he is a supernit this is a pretty bad fold. ther are a good amount of worse hands justin can value bet here.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

If you call the turn, and fold the river, what card were you looking for? If you're not prepared to call the river, fold on the turn. If you call the turn, and a non-scary undercard slides off, you have to call the river.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

It's definitely somewhere between misplayed on every street and utter brilliance. I'd say it's much closer to one then the other.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

The river fold is pretty bad. As Pete says I can be valuebetting AK here, and it's also possible for me to be bluffing a KQs type hand, thinking you picked up an ace high flush draw on the turn. I'm also playing 77 and 88 this way.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

Dude Justin is a lagtard, 4 bet his ass preflop and fire away.

-DeathDonkey

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

DUDE YOU HAVE AN OVERPAIR!!!!!

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

He has no reason to think you have an overpair.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

I agree against Justin, but this is not necessarily true, especially in Vegas. Many players will fire unimproved high cards on the turn and then check behind on the river. A lot more than will bet them again on the river. So sometimes it may be correct to call a turn bet but fold to a river bet.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

Raise the turn. Justin won't 3-bet a worse hand, so you can get away from it then, but he may certainly call you down with A-high. And if you get him to fold hands with 6 outs then that's good too. I don't mind the flop c/c. But raise that turn.

(And don't fold the river -- I've only played with Justin a couple times but I would always see a showdown with an overpair when I got there as cheaply as you did).

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

careful justin will value bet AK on the river there. call the river. expect to lose but call the river.

i prefer to limp utg with 99 and 88. a really good pro taught me why this is good in so many ways.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

"how do you ever make this fold?"

im fond of the discipline this fold takes. it's a nuanced play and good way to play this hand against 90% of players or something. just not the best line here.

fwiw the fold is not that bad even though it gives up on the whole pot. justin's range includes a lot of hands that have 99 crushed. a fold is wrong it's just not a disaster. he's going to get shown JJ and QQ a lot here.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
i prefer to limp utg with 99 and 88. a really good pro taught me why this is good in so many ways.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey mike, i'm really interested in hearing the reasoning behind this as i am used to auto-raising with 99 here and usually 88 as well

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

bugstud,

Try to look at this from my point of view. I had just barely found out who you were, and I knew nothing of how you played other than watching you play the previous hour or two. I had noticed that you were raising quite a bit(correctly), so it's not like I put you on a monster and needed a really huge hand to 3bet you with.

So now you just call my 3bet, which doesn't mean that much. The flop is just about as raggy as they get, and you check, and I bet. Now at this point you hesitated for a bit. I know now you were probably thinking about checkraising, but at the time I felt like you had an AJ or KQ type hand that was trying to figure out if you wanted to continue.

So you finally call, and the turn is another low card that puts up a flush draw. So now you check and I bet and you call instantly. So now I'm thinking this is either a picked up flush draw or a hand like AQ that's hoping to see one more card and maybe get a free showdown.

Based on this information, I don't think there are any hands that I could have up to this point that I wouldn't be betting the river with. So in other words my range after the river bet is pretty much the exact same as my range after the preflop 3bet.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
bugstud,

Try to look at this from my point of view. I had just barely found out who you were, and I knew nothing of how you played other than watching you play the previous hour or two. I had noticed that you were raising quite a bit(correctly), so it's not like I put you on a monster and needed a really huge hand to 3bet you with.

So now you just call my 3bet, which doesn't mean that much. The flop is just about as raggy as they get, and you check, and I bet. Now at this point you hesitated for a bit. I know now you were probably thinking about checkraising, but at the time I felt like you had an AJ or KQ type hand that was trying to figure out if you wanted to continue.

So you finally call, and the turn is another low card that puts up a flush draw. So now you check and I bet and you call instantly. So now I'm thinking this is either a picked up flush draw or a hand like AQ that's hoping to see one more card and maybe get a free showdown.

Based on this information, I don't think there are any hands that I could have up to this point that I wouldn't be betting the river with. So in other words my range after the river bet is pretty much the exact same as my range after the preflop 3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I certainly can agree with this now, but wasn't thinking that your turn and river ranges wouldn't change at the table.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
"how do you ever make this fold?"

im fond of the discipline this fold takes. it's a nuanced play and good way to play this hand against 90% of players or something. just not the best line here. It's a $100 misplay.

fwiw the fold is not that bad even though it gives up on the whole pot. justin's range includes a lot of hands that have 99 crushed. a fold is wrong it's just not a disaster. he's going to get shown JJ and QQ a lot here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how this can't be characterized as a huge mistake. The pot is, what, 7-8 bets at that point, and probably 30-40% of that belongs to bugstud if he redeems his 1 BB coupon for it.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
i prefer to limp utg with 99 and 88. a really good pro taught me why this is good in so many ways.


[/ QUOTE ]

So teach us. You can't just leave us hanging.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

If you're going to ch/f the river with 99 on a 64263 board, ch/f the flop.

Kind of like a training hand of how not to play 99.

I would have led/3 bet the flop and figured I would hope to know if I'm good from there.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

in a typical loose mid limit game you see a lot of flops with 3-4 people even if you raise. that's the wrong amount for something like 99, you want to get it either heads up or 5 way or better. one you hope you hold up unimproved. with the other you hope you flop a set. it's better to go the flop a set route. also when you do flop an overpair or set people wont put you on the hand as readily if theyre the hand reading sort.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
also when you do flop an overpair or set people wont put you on the hand as readily if theyre the hand reading sort.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno Mike. Tight players limping/overlimping and jamming innocuous flops screams set.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

Every fold gives up on the whole pot. This one is disastrous in that he's given Justin absolutely no clue that he has an overpair. To me it's a cardinal sin: Thou shalt not make a "big" laydown after one has slowplayed a bigger hand than your opponent, given how you played it, will give you credit for.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
"how do you ever make this fold?"

im fond of the discipline this fold takes. it's a nuanced play and good way to play this hand against 90% of players or something. just not the best line here.

fwiw the fold is not that bad even though it gives up on the whole pot. justin's range includes a lot of hands that have 99 crushed. a fold is wrong it's just not a disaster. he's going to get shown JJ and QQ a lot here.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a disaster even though he's going to see JJ and QQ here all the fricken time, don't kid yourself. You need to get off or get back on your meds.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
also when you do flop an overpair or set people wont put you on the hand as readily if theyre the hand reading sort.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno Mike. Tight players limping/overlimping and jamming innocuous flops screams set.

[/ QUOTE ]

the good thing about them putting you on a set is they call you down anyway.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

call the river.

i probably c/r the turn, though I think your line is fine against a player who will make a slim valuebet - sans folding the river.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

Given how you played the hand, I would definitely call the river. I would expect to lose most of the time, but win more than 12% of the time. He will have unimproved overcards or a lower pocket pair more than 12% of the time.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

What hands do you open raise UTG, just call a 3bet, and take this line with? This is an easy value bet for AK.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
What hands do you open raise UTG, just call a 3bet, and take this line with? This is an easy value bet for AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anybody who is value betting AK here is out of their minds. A good winning player raises UTG 10 handed and check calls a 642 flop and a 3 turn putting a flush draw up. What good player ever check calls the turn and river with AQ or AJ. Almost all fold the turn with AQ and with AJ 100% fold the turn. How are we value betting AK high? I put my opponett on 77-10's here every time i dont know what u guys think he has.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What hands do you open raise UTG, just call a 3bet, and take this line with? This is an easy value bet for AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anybody who is value betting AK here is out of their minds. A good winning player raises UTG 10 handed and check calls a 642 flop and a 3 turn putting a flush draw up. What good player ever check calls the turn and river with AQ or AJ. Almost all fold the turn with AQ and with AJ 100% fold the turn. How are we value betting AK high? I put my opponett on 77-10's here every time i dont know what u guys think he has.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. unless justina knows that bugstud knows that justin will never bet AK here and so justin can bet AK as busgstud will dump his 77-TT. bleh.

why not bet/call the turn to avoid this spot? if justin raises the turn and fires the river, i think we can safely fold.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

You're assuming the pre-flop 3-bettor knows his opponent is a good player. The turn card put up a flush draw, so maybe 3-bettor is thinking his opponent now picked up a flush draw. When the river comes small, 3-bettor could now be betting high cards that he thinks are not as high as his opponent's.

I think there's a better argument to be made for check-raising the river than for folding.

The key thing, for me, is that if I'm the 3-bettor, I have nothing which would indicate my A-K, A-Q, 8-8, 7-7 or smaller pair is not good. And his pasie play gives me indications that I can get my opponent to fold if I have a worse hand.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What hands do you open raise UTG, just call a 3bet, and take this line with? This is an easy value bet for AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anybody who is value betting AK here is out of their minds. A good winning player raises UTG 10 handed and check calls a 642 flop and a 3 turn putting a flush draw up. What good player ever check calls the turn and river with AQ or AJ. Almost all fold the turn with AQ and with AJ 100% fold the turn. How are we value betting AK high? I put my opponett on 77-10's here every time i dont know what u guys think he has.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. unless justina knows that bugstud knows that justin will never bet AK here and so justin can bet AK as busgstud will dump his 77-TT. bleh.



[/ QUOTE ]

Yeh but thats betting AK high as a bluff not for value. People are talking about value betting in this thread.

PS. Kirby and I decided your coming to commerce with us next time for gamboool.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

"30-40% of that belongs to bugstud"

no against justin's range there i dont think he has that much pot equity i just dont. maybe 20% or less.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
"30-40% of that belongs to bugstud"

no against justin's range there i dont think he has that much pot equity i just dont. maybe 20% or less.

[/ QUOTE ]

mike, there's almost no chance you are correct. If you break down the hands in play it is easy to get to 30%. I know this is surprising given the likelihood of TT-AA and that 77 may fold preflop or quit betting and AK may not bet the river, but it is true.

BUT LET'S SUPPOSE YOU ARE CORRECT-- you've just handed him a 1.5 bet error heads-up on the river in a mid-size pot. That's not a disaster?

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy value bet for AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

So AK is hoping that AQ will call, with AQ figuring the 3 bet holding is AJ or worse?

Nothing wrong with betting the river with AK there, as obviously someone will make a bad fold with 99, but it's done as a bluff. Not for value.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

I assume that this is full handed? Having no knowledge of Justin's play, but knowing that hes a 2+2er and probably TAG, I can see where you're coming from with this fold.

It seems like Justin would have to know to respect an UTG raise here. What range is he 3-betting? Typical players will usually have AK/AQs here, or a higher pocket pair. This of course is assuming that hes not laggy and dosen't view you as such (thus possibly trying to isolate you with a weaker holding than average). Seeing as how you would "expect" him to check behind on the river with AK/AQs, I can see why you called the turn, but folded the river when he fired again. In fact, against straightforward players I like this play a lot (Admittedly though, I don't know if Justin is one of these).

What ever happened to HPFAP's section where they advised to revert to checking and calling after getting three-bet in a heads-up instance like this. The example Sklansky used there was raising QQ-99 and getting 3-bet. He said that typical players who 3-bet you here will generally always have an overpair (which you may or may not be able to beat) or AK, sometimes AQs. Here he advises to check-call the flop, turn, and sometimes the river (other times betting out). His reasoning was that if you check-raised at any point you would just likely lose more money if you were behind. I agree with this and have generally always kept this advice in mind when such situations arise. This is also why I think that the few people advising a check-raise on the flop here are insane.

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

"Nothing wrong with betting the river with AK there, as obviously someone will make a bad fold with 99, but it's done as a bluff. Not for value."

silly me and here ive been betting it based solely on the strength of the hand for years now and getting paid right and left by AQ and worse. oh well back to the drawing board...

Re: ugly hand vs Justin A Bellagio 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
silly me and here ive been betting it based solely on the strength of the hand for years now and getting paid right and left by AQ and worse. oh well back to the drawing board...

[/ QUOTE ]

Another example of why the Commerce games are said to be insanely good. Getting paid off FOR YEARS by AQ and worse.

Wow. A high nut no pair = money machine. Who woulda thunk it.