I\'m shocked that these arb threads are still going.
 

I'm shocked that these arb threads are still going.

I am amazed that anyone that makes money with arbs would want to teach others how to do it. By doing so, these people are creating competition for themselves. As more people arb, the chance of finding arbs go down because the markets become more efficient.

I know some say they do it to give to the other forum members. They found an arb; got it; and pass it on to others. The thing is this favor doesn't get returned. I see the same handful of people posting arbs, and they the number viewing them is much higher. Basically, you're giving money to someone that isn't going to give it back.




<font color="red">busted out to its own thread. the discussion is fine, but doesn't belong in the official arb-posting thread. -P </font>

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

If you don't like to share, this forum may not be for you. I wasn't encouraged to post arbs until I saw others were doing so. Sharing breeds sharing. Not always true, but better than no sharing at all.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

95% of the arbs I find are dead within the time it would take me to post them here. Most people are arbing just to clear bonuses and aren't doing anything more fancy. So, I'm not particularly concerned about the quality of arbs going down. However, you're not alone in thinking that sharing will make things less profitable for everyone. There are a handful of people I know of who bad mouth me (behind my back, of course) for sharing any tidbit of information.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
better than no sharing at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is only true if you're the lazy guy that never looks for arbs and relies on others to hand them to you.

What is the point of passing out arbs to those that will not pass them back to you when they find them, or worse won't even look for them on their own.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
better than no sharing at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is only true if you're the lazy guy that never looks for arbs and relies on others to hand them to you.

What is the point of passing out arbs to those that will not pass them back to you when they find them, or worse won't even look for them on their own.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please tell us who are 'those'arbing and then not passing on any *new* arbs they find, kthxbye.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
What is the point of not passing out arbs to those that will not pass them back to you when they find them, or worse won't even look for them on their own.

[/ QUOTE ]

If they're not looking for them on their own then they're not hurting my lines. If I already have my bet on, they're also not hurting my lines. Would I rather Pinnacle or a 2+2er have the free money? Personally if I can help someone I will. Sometimes I consider not helping out because I know there are people who can't stand me who are benefiting from this information, but then I realise how childish that sounds and post it anyway.

There are bigger and better places than 2+2 (for sports betting at least) that have been doing this for longer. All that has happened is that more sportsbooks have opened and we're getting better value lines because of the increased competition and therefore better arb opportunities.

Lori

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
there are people who can't stand me who are benefiting from this information

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously? You seem okay to me.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is the point of not passing out arbs to those that will not pass them back to you when they find them, or worse won't even look for them on their own.

[/ QUOTE ]

If they're not looking for them on their own then they're not hurting my lines. If I already have my bet on, they're also not hurting my lines. Would I rather Pinnacle or a 2+2er have the free money? Personally if I can help someone I will. Sometimes I consider not helping out because I know there are people who can't stand me who are benefiting from this information, but then I realise how childish that sounds and post it anyway.

There are bigger and better places than 2+2 (for sports betting at least) that have been doing this for longer. All that has happened is that more sportsbooks have opened and we're getting better value lines because of the increased competition and therefore better arb opportunities.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

There are people were not looking for arbs, but, because of these posts, they've been inspired to look for arbs.

Now, they are your competition and will get to arbs before you do, and, in many cases, the arbs will die before you see them.

Lori, I'm surprised that you are focused on the short term (i.e. a specific arb) rather than the long term. You've been around poker etc long enough to know that focusing on the short term can greatly impact your long term earnings.

Homer, I know you're in a different boat than the rest here. Creating sports bettors could result in some some fairly passive long term income for you, so I understand why you're sharing the arb info. You should know that by cultivating new arbers you are also alienating established high volume arbers who would have used your links but are now staying away from your site.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

chachi,

If you are worried about competition in arbing its probably because you suck at arbing.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm shocked that these arb threads are still going.

I am amazed that anyone that makes money with arbs would want to teach others how to do it. By doing so, these people are creating competition for themselves. As more people arb, the chance of finding arbs go down because the markets become more efficient.

I know some say they do it to give to the other forum members. They found an arb; got it; and pass it on to others. The thing is this favor doesn't get returned. I see the same handful of people posting arbs, and they the number viewing them is much higher. Basically, you're giving money to someone that isn't going to give it back.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you understand the purpose of this forum in general? People come on this site and help each other get better at poker even though that may help make their competition better down the road. If you don't like that concept, perhaps this forum isn't for you.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
chachi,

If you are worried about competition in arbing its probably because you suck at arbing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
perhaps this forum isn't for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

kthxbye.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

NCAAF

Pinn: Louisville -7 @ +108
SIA: Rutgers +7 @ -105 ($550 max?)

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

NCAAF

Pinn: Louisville -7 @ +108
SIA: Rutgers +7 @ -105 ($550 max?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the middle more profitable with Lville -6.5 -103 ?

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Homer, I know you're in a different boat than the rest here. Creating sports bettors could result in some some fairly passive long term income for you, so I understand why you're sharing the arb info. You should know that by cultivating new arbers you are also alienating established high volume arbers who would have used your links but are now staying away from your site.

[/ QUOTE ]


Hey hogua,

Maybe if select members of your own group didn't go out of there way to hide things from people, things would of turned a little diffferently.

These established long-term arbers already alienated everyone else from their group, why should anyone give 2 [censored] about them now?

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is the middle more profitable with Lville -6.5 -103 ?

[/ QUOTE ]
if you assume 6% push on the spread of 7 like on NFL (college may be slightly higher or lower), then going for the side is slightly better.

as a straight arb you are looking at a guaranteed profit of +1.5c. the side on 7 will pay +100c about 6% of the time, subtracted by a loss of -4c the other 94% of the time, which results in a net EV of +2.24c.

selling back points to pinnacle as an arb almost always costs you some return, especially around key numbers where they charge a higher premium than other sites.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]

Do you understand the purpose of this forum in general? People come on this site and help each other get better at poker even though that may help make their competition better down the road. If you don't like that concept, perhaps this forum isn't for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a difference. Creating better poker players helps to create games as winners play more often, which help to bring new players to poker. The more games there are, the better chance a new player has to finding his/her way to a game. So by making players better, estabilshed players give up some marketshare, but, in doing so, they make the whole market larger.

Arbing is different. Arbs exist because markets are inefficient. The more people there are looking for arbs, the more efficient the markets become. By helping others arb better, existing arbers reduce their market share and reduce the size of the market as well.

To Homer's point, the nmore people that use arbs to clear bonuses, the more money books give out. Eventually, this will lead to a reduction in bonuses and/or worse terms for the bonuses that do exist.

Also, the profit from arbs comes out of the pocket of the books. The more money arbers make, the higher the chances of books loosing money and maybe even going out of business. This too reduces the size of the market. I admit, this argument is a bit of a reach, but it is still valid.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Homer, I know you're in a different boat than the rest here. Creating sports bettors could result in some some fairly passive long term income for you, so I understand why you're sharing the arb info.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have always been willing to share, even when there was no potential for me to profit.

[ QUOTE ]
You should know that by cultivating new arbers you are also alienating established high volume arbers who would have used your links but are now staying away from your site.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am aware how certain people feel about me, and can live with them not joining my site. To each his own.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
You should know that by cultivating new arbers you are also alienating established high volume arbers who would have used your links but are now staying away from your site.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should also point out that I care not what these "high volume" players think, because (for the most part) instead of taking the high road and voicing their opinions in an adult manner, they chose to bash me behind my back when I have never been anything but civil and willing to do what I could to help these people make money.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

In case someone missed my edit to the OP:

This discussion is certainly fine to have, but certainly shouldn't occur in the weekly arb posting thread.

Ripped the thread out to its own. Unfortunately can't do so on a post-by-post basis, so there are stragglers here that I reposted manually in the official arb posting thread.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

Thanks, and sorry for taking the thread on a tangent.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

Its not a problem.

But when there 17 out of 20 posts in a thread are off-topic, something's wrong and i figured it was worth splitting [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

I vote that now that I've learned about arbing we stop posting about them..................now.

Re: I\'m shocked that these arb threads are still going.
 

chachi,

has the wide release of information hurt +ev opportunities in the financial markets?

Re: I\'m shocked that these arb threads are still going.
 

Well, that's a bad example. The financial markets grow as more money is put in, since it's being used as capital to help real businesses.

Sports betting is a zero sum market (with the books included). In this case, all money made comes directly from someone else, rather than being a mutually profitable scenario.

Re: I\'m shocked that these arb threads are still going.
 

MT2R, I'm pretty sure you're being sarcastic, but the answer to that question is a resounding YES, and it perfectly illustrates chachi's point.

Back 50 years ago, before financial data feeds and the internet, asymetric information regarding data as simple as the trade price history, market depth, or last earnings announcemnt was prevelent. That is much, much less common now, and there is less of a chance for the smarter traders (arbers) to exploit ignorant traders (the books). Now that almost everyone has all public information, there are many more "smart" traders, and that kind of easy exploitation and arbitrage is much harder to come by.

Re: I\'m shocked that these arb threads are still going.
 

no...not sarcastic...just curious

Re: I\'m shocked that these arb threads are still going.
 

Arbing increases the market size, so in my opinion, they increase the total profit made by the industry. We all benefit with a bigger industry, as they can offer more bets, larger bets and will be better able to stay in business.

Why do arbs exist? It is entirely possible that the individual books are balancing different levels of action, which creates the arbs. Another point is that risk levels change, which result in arbs. It is the first type of arb that is beneficial to the sites and the second that is not. How are we to determine why the arb was created? Ultimately, arbs due to risk changes will result in the failure of the slow to react, as it is in every business.

Re: I\'m shocked that these arb threads are still going.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Arbing increases the market size, so in my opinion, they increase the total profit made by the industry. We all benefit with a bigger industry, as they can offer more bets, larger bets and will be better able to stay in business.

Why do arbs exist? It is entirely possible that the individual books are balancing different levels of action, which creates the arbs. Another point is that risk levels change, which result in arbs. It is the first type of arb that is beneficial to the sites and the second that is not. How are we to determine why the arb was created? Ultimately, arbs due to risk changes will result in the failure of the slow to react, as it is in every business.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you arb, the profit comes out of the books pocket. More arbers=more losses for the books. The more the books lose the more the industry shrinks.

Re: I\'m shocked that these arb threads are still going.
 

hoqua,

Its obvious you don't want to participate. Stop being a bitch and sack up and realize you suck.

WWSIHBD?

Re: I\'m shocked that these arb threads are still going.
 

If I didn't suck at arbs this thread would make me want to post as many as possible.

Re: I\'m shocked that these arb threads are still going.
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I didn't suck at arbs this thread would make me want to post as many as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, they'd be dead in 2 minutes BTW if not sooner. I'd say the avg arb lasts for between 15-45 seconds. AIM is by far the best way to go.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
95% of the arbs I find are dead within the time it would take me to post them here. Most people are arbing just to clear bonuses and aren't doing anything more fancy. So, I'm not particularly concerned about the quality of arbs going down. However, you're not alone in thinking that sharing will make things less profitable for everyone. There are a handful of people I know of who bad mouth me (behind my back, of course) for sharing any tidbit of information

[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe. Homer I'd say you still have a loooong way to go to piss off more people with this than you did posting casino bonus information. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I love people who stick it to greedy bastards. Keep up the good work.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

Considering that almost every arb I've ever seen posted here has the "good side" of the arb at a book with a relatively small limit, I'm not sure how you can make that statement. I also don't know a single serious sports bettor that would agree with that statement. Pretty much every serious bettor I know is intimately familiar with the necessity to keep certain things to oneself.

For the most part Chachi is right on the mark here and I'm absolutely shocked that just about everybody disagrees. I haven't even been betting sports seriously for all that long, and I couldn't even begin to count how many great betting opportunities no longer exist because they were heavily publicized, too many people got a hold of them, and the opportunities were burned out. The liquidity present in the sports betting marketplace is surprisingly low.

As a simple example of how publicizing these bets can burn out the marketplace, the soft sides of these posted arbs are frequently SIA lines. SIA's lines aren't nearly as juicy as they were 3 or 4 years ago, and SIA has also stopped offering a lot of the profitable types of bets they used to offer.

Intuitively you might think it's worse to share poker information than sports betting information because poker players directly compete with each other, but the low amounts of liquidity present in certain aspects of the sports betting market make that not the case.

I'd love to be able to share everything I know with other people, but the marketplace simply won't bear it.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

Blah blah blah...


So WTF does this have to do with posting a few arbs here?

People shared casino whoring information and they'll share this information. In fact I usually tell all my friends about arbs etc. Let them crush it and if its still there or in a book they don't use. Then I post it for the good of humanity.

Arbs are always gonna be around. And arbers are too.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

Arbs may "always be around," but posting these sorts of things publically will make it more difficult to find arbs.

Since this is a poker board--if a player criticizes a fish and chases him away from the table, how many people would be annoyed, and how many wouldn't care because "fish will always be around?"

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

Well, I feel that it's not as bad as you mentioned. I have no problems at all in finding arbs everyday without reading this thread. (I only use 5 sites)

As far as finding fish in poker- they are bound to be around at all time, no matter how many times the sharks crushed him, that's what a fish was meant to be. I have no problem in finding a fish or two to play hu with me, after being criticized by several big mouths at a full table.

Over-sensitive, I guess.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

All these threads do is create tension in an otherwise friendly community (compared to the other 2+2 forums, at least). People are going to have their own opinions that are unlikely to change. All you can do is whatever you think is best. I wish this thread and all like it would die.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

And similarly, I wish that the arbitrage threads and all like them would die.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
And similarly, I wish that the arbitrage threads and all like them would die.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly...do whatever you think is best. For you, that is not taking part in arb threads.