silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

I know there was a thread last month about the NHL chase system that folks are doing on TheRX. And I definitely understand the valid criticisms of what is more or less a blind Martingale.

What I'm throwing out there is not completely blind and based on two premises:

1) The Eastern Conference teams still suck relative to their counterparts in the West
2) West coast/Texas swings are more draining than east coast road trips

What I plan to do is "chase" 1 unit by fading on the moneyline any Eastern Conference team that's on a road trip of 3 or more games provided that at least two of the games are against Western Conference opponents.

Potential exceptions to the system:

1) Two of the weakest teams in the West are Portland and Seattle. I haven't looked at this year's schedules yet, but to the extent that there are three-game road trips where two of the games are against the Blazers and Sonics, I'll pass on betting the system here.

2) If an Eastern Conference team looks like they're gonna win 60ish games, I'll pass on their road trips. At the risk of sounding results-oriented, from what I can tell, only one East team has swept a West Coast trip during the last three years -- Detroit swept Sacramento, Phoenix, and Portland early last season. For this reason, I'm gonna wait about 20 games before blindly fading teams like New Jersey, Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago (likely the top 4 in the East this year).

Bottom line is that most Eastern Conference teams have only two of these trips a season, so this isn't gonna be a big-time system anyway. Don't tail me if you're actually looking to make the big monies. I'm simply gunning for 20-25 units. Given the inherent gamboooool of a chase system, I'm also using a much smaller unit total than usual.

One other risk, from what I can tell, is that some of the moneylines can be pretty hefty in the NBA (approaching -300 to -400). My guess is that in these instances, it would be games played in San Antonio, Dallas, or Phoenix. At this point, I just don't see any Eastern Conference team going through a southwestern swing undefeated. It hasn't happened in a very long time. And if such a team potentially emerges from the East, I'll pass when they go out west.

Comments welcome, especially if you can think of potential refinements. Feel free to dissuade me as well. If there are any other flaws/risks in the system that I haven't identified already, I'd like to know.

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

do you think it would be better to just go ATS on these picks?

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

your eastern/western breakdown is exactly what makes the NHL system work, so how is yours that different?

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

My understanding is that the NHL chase system bets ALL road trips regardless of where they take place and what team is making the road trip? Please correct me if I'm wrong. Mine is geared towards a very narrow subset thereof.

As for betting ATS/ML, aren't NBA lines typically dead-on? Betting blindly against the spread, even on a favorable subset of games, seems like a tough hill to climb. I'm certainly willing to be convinced otherwise though.

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

Here are all the eligible road swings for the season. Although Detroit is weaker without B. Wallace and Utah seems to be strong this year, I'm gonna pass on tonight. Lots of other opportunities in the next 5 months.

detroit - 11/6: UTA, SAC, LAL, GS
new york - 11/8: DEN, HOU, SA
toronto - 11/12: SAC, GS, LAL, DEN, UTA
charlotte - 11/14: NO, SA, ORL
chicago - 11/14: DAL, HOU, SA, LAL, DEN, PHI, NY;
philadelphia - 11/15: SEA, PHO, LAC
miami - 11/18: ATL, NO, SA
new jersey - 11/20: SEA, POR, PHO, LAL
washington - 11/21: DAL, HOU, MEM
indiana - 11/26: TOR, POR, GS, SEA, DEN, LAL
orlando - 11/27: UTA, SEA, POR, LAC, SAC, IND
milwaukee - 11/28: LAL, PHO, GS, UTA
miami - 12/2: MEM, LAC, SAC, DEN
atlanta - 12/3: POR, SEA, DEN, LAL, SAC
washington - 12/17: LAL, DEN, SAC, PHO
toronto - 12/19: PHO, LAC, POR, SEA
milwaukee - 12/26: SA, MEM, PHO
philadelphia - 12/26: GS, SAC, POR, LAL, DEN, UTA, MIN
boston - 12/26: DEN, LAC, GS, SEA, POR
atlanta - 12/29: HOU, SA, TOR
new york - 12/29: PHO, LAC, SAC, POR, SEA
philadelphia - 1/27: ATL, HOU, NO
miami - 1/5: PHO, POR, SEA, GS, UTA, LAL
cleveland - 1/9: SAC, PHO, LAC, SEA, POR, DEN, GS
orlando - 1/10: GS, LAL, PHO, NO
milwaukee - 1/19: SEA, POR, LAC, SAC
new jersey - 1/22: SAC, GS, LAC, DEN, UTA
charlotte - 1/26: LAL, GS, DEN
chicago - 1/31: SEA, POR, UTA, SAC, GS, PHO
atlanta - 2/9: PHO, GS, UTA, LAC, CHI
new york - 2/10: UTA, LAL, GS
cleveland - 2/14: UTA, LAL, TOR
boston - 2/20: SAC, PHO, LAL, UTA, HOU
toronto - 2/24: CHA, SA, HOU
orlando - 2/26: CHI, DEN, SA, DAL
charlotte - 2/26: LAC, SAC, POR, SEA, UTA, PHO
indiana - 3/2: PHO, LAC, SAC, UTA
new jersey - 3/4: PHI, DAL, HOU, SA, MEM, NO
detroit - 3/9: DEN, LAC, SEA, POR, PHO
boston - 3/16: DAL, SA, NO
washington - 3/20: POR, SEA, GS, LAC, UTA
detroit - 3/22: HOU, SA, MIL
milwaukee - 3/26: HOU, DAL, CHA

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

keep us posted

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

Is this pretty much just based on the tougher road-fatigue and time-zone adjustments or something?


Travelling to MEM and then OK (or NO) isn't exactly as draining as travelling all the way out to the west coast.

PHI's 1/7 trip doesn't look nearly as dangerous as CLE's 1/9 trip for example.

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

As stated in the OP, fatigue is secondary. Primary factor is the gross inferiority of the Eastern Conference.

Game on tomorrow. I'm betting the Nuggets -535 vs. the Knicks. 5.35 units to win 1 unit. Not sure if I should keep track in this thread all season or create a new one each week/month, will leave it up to the mods.

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

What about the Knicks ATS? they are +10. Do you think they are that bad vs a 0-2 denver team with a long layoff (4 days off)?

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

I'll vote for month right now

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

Ouch. Damn you, Jamal Crawford! Denver blows a 12-point lead at home with 8 minutes to go.

Games like this are why using a tiny unit size is essential in an NBA chase. The moneylines are so steep compared to the NHL, which leads me to believe that a chase system in basketball is much tougher to maintain. Thankfully, as I stated in the OP, I'm not gunning for big money under this system.

[ QUOTE ]
What about the Knicks ATS? they are +10. Do you think they are that bad vs a 0-2 denver team with a long layoff (4 days off)?

[/ QUOTE ]
The relative unpredictability of the NBA is also why I'm not confident handicapping sides against the spread.

I'll be betting on the Rockets ML tomorrow to win 6.35 units. It's gonna be expensive, but I think Yao and company should probably come through.

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

I hate this system already. Laid -625 to win 6.35 units. That's a lot bigger chunk of my BR than I expected. Makes me want to slice the unit size even more than I have already.

YTD, games: 1-1
YTD, road trips: 1-0, +1 unit

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

2.75 units on Sacramento at -275 vs. Toronto. Bet this last night, ML is at -300 now.

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

Yay, glad to see that basketball didn't kick my ass like the NFL did today. At least yesterday went very well, so the weekend was a success overall.

No games for the system tomorrow.

YTD, games: 2-1
YTD, road trips: 2-0, +2 units

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

Tuesday's games:

3 units on New Orleans at -300
2.2 units on Dallas at -220

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

Both lines moved against me, which was somewhat worrisome, but it all worked out.

YTD, games: 4-1
YTD, road trips: 4-0, +4 units

No bet on Seattle vs. Philadelphia for tomorrow night yet. For some reason, the line's not up on Pinnacle. I'm also trying to figure out whether to keep fading Da Bulls for one more unit, considering that their chances of sweeping HOU, SA, and LAL are quite unlikely.

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

[ QUOTE ]
Both lines moved against me, which was somewhat worrisome, but it all worked out.

YTD, games: 4-1
YTD, road trips: 4-0, +4 units

No bet on Seattle vs. Philadelphia for tomorrow night yet. For some reason, the line's not up on Pinnacle. I'm also trying to figure out whether to keep fading Da Bulls for one more unit, considering that their chances of sweeping HOU, SA, and LAL are quite unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm on the theRX forum myself, and I did see your thread here for the last week or so, but I didn't really have an opinion of using the ML in basketball.

(I think it was because of how different it is in hockey with MM's system where goals are not easy to get, i.e. 1-5 goals per game by a team on average; whereas, for ML in basketball, I notice the points vs ML are still "similar" to football style. What I mean is if -3 in basketball is similar to football as the ML goes like -250's, right? Same idea with -7/-8 being like -500's? But what scares me about BB than football is how easy the points come... it takes a good few minutes in football to get 3 pts for FG, but a 30 second swing of two straight 3-pointers in BB by either team really changes the landscape for that "run" but impacting the overall game picture anyway. What do you see so far on this, silentbob?)

Anyway, I meant to reply in agreement about fading the Bulls for 1 more unit as I also don't see them winning *ALL* 3 games against HOU,SA,LAL but I'd be most curious about the ML prices now that Bulls faded last night at end losing to Mavs by 12.

* CalvinTy

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

Yeah, so I already bet Houston tonight to win 1 unit. Can't access my Pinnacle account from work, so not sure what what odds were exactly.

I agree that a chase system is rather impractical in the NBA compared to NHL given the steep ML odds. It will still succeed in the long run, I think, but given that I've dropped the unit size twice already, my ultimate winnings (if any) won't be terribly large.

Anyway, I bet the Sonics and lost last night. Will play the Suns against Philly tomorrow.

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

Houston won, barely.

Betting 8.19 units tonight on Phoenix at -300.

Whether I bet against the Heat tomorrow night will depend on the status of SHAQ!

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

I was worried when Nash was out but Phoenix won handily.

Betting 1.26 units on Atlanta vs. Miami tonight. Line seems a bit fishy, but I don't think Miami can win at NO and SA with a one-man team.

YTD, games: 6-2
YTD, road trips: 6-0, +6 units

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

Miami beat Atlanta, but I got the unit back by taking NO last night. Passed on the Nets, although they did lose to the Sonics. Didn't bet Dallas last night in time against Washington.

No more opportunities for the system until Sunday.

YTD, games: 7-3
YTD, road trips: 7-0, +7 units

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

Betting 1.05 units on Toronto at -105 as Indiana embarks on a a 6-game road trip.

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

Well, that was quick. Undecided about fading Indiana for another unit.

Will bet Utah tomorrow against Orlando when Pinnacle puts up the moneyline.

YTD, games: 8-3
YTD, road trips: 8-0, +8 units

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

Looks like Orlando is for reals. I took Utah at 2.2 units and lost. Betting the Lakers for 2.7 units against Milwaukee tonight. Will probably take Portland against Indiana later as well.

YTD, games: 8-4
YTD, road trips, 8-0, +5.8 units

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

I like the system, its interesting to see it in action. Is Portland strong enough to really be a bet? Seems IND matches up well where they are strong (inside). I like the LAL ML. GL and keep us updated.

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is Portland strong enough to really be a bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe not, but I didn't think Toronto would win against Indiana and bet it anyway. That's just part of the chase.

Just for the record, I bet 3.15 units on the Lakers, took Portland at +106 for 1 unit, and lost 2.27 units on the Jazz last night.

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

Three losses in a row in three series. Yippee.

Tonight's bets:

Golden State for 4.66 units at -240
Seattle for 4.58 units at -140 (I know lots of you have bet Orlando, but the system is what it is)

Re: silentbob\'s NBA modified \"chase\" system
 

No bets tonight, but a horrible end to the month -- GS blows a 4-point lead in the final 35 seconds as IND hits two treys. Seattle hung with Orlando for 3 quarters.

Lots of money at stake tomorrow night, betting against IND, ORL, and MIL. New thread for December.

I'm currently down 10ish units. Good thing I reduced my unit sizes.