Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

Stars 3r to the million. i have in vested $6.30. i rebought as soon as we started and had a top 15 stack at the end of the rebuy so i opted not to add on.

Anyway, on to the stupidity.

15 Players get a seat. 16-31 get $13 or something.

I had been pretty close to the bubble boy for a while now. picking my spots moving in against medium stacks to retain a decent stack.

We are down to 18 players i am 13 in chips with 56k blinds at 4k 8k. There is 1 small stack and the other 17-14 are very close to my chip coun. i push KJo from EP into a medium stack.

A big stack timebanks from the button and calls with AK, i'm out.

Help me.

This is the 2nd time i've been retarded in a satellite on the bubble. last time was the Bodog $3r to the $109 where i pushed into the CL with 4 left and 3 people getting paid.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

I'm not going to comment on your push but ALWAYS addon.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

What to do? Well, pushing KJo from EP on a 9-handed table (I assume, with 18 left) is obviously not too good (without knowing anything about this situation specifically). The way to avoid retarded moves is uh well, don't do them [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

And oh yeah, always take the add-on.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

reg why would i add-on in this spot? surely it doesn't hold enough equity to be worthwhile. Being top 15 in chips with 14k or whatever it was and the avg at 5.5k adding on seems like spewing $$$$$ to me.

I realize the addon is a no brainer most times, i think being in the top 10% of the field negates the value of the addon.

Also please do comment on the end game push thats my big problem.

My line of thinking with the push was that only 3 or 4 hands could call me, and 2 of those shouldn't(AA, KK, AK, QQ). Also pushing into the mid stack is correct isn't it?

If i take the pot down uncontested i am now safely in the top 10 for chips and can just wait. another full orbit crushes me, and i can easily be on the wrong side of the bubble.

Is this wrong? Help please, i just cost myself $200.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

[ QUOTE ]
reg why would i add-on in this spot? surely it doesn't hold enough equity to be worthwhile. Being top 15 in chips with 14k or whatever it was and the avg at 5.5k adding on seems like spewing $$$$$ to me.

I realize the addon is a no brainer most times, i think being in the top 10% of the field negates the value of the addon.

Also please do comment on the end game push thats my big problem.

My line of thinking with the push was that only 3 or 4 hands could call me, and 2 of those shouldn't(AA, KK, AK, QQ). Also pushing into the mid stack is correct isn't it?

If i take the pot down uncontested i am now safely in the top 10 for chips and can just wait. another full orbit crushes me, and i can easily be on the wrong side of the bubble.

Is this wrong? Help please, i just cost myself $200.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe you have over-simplified your analysis. Your line is correct for a BSB type of situation, but it is absolutely flawed from EP, no matter what size stack follows. Seriously, other than stealing the blinds, what good can come from a KJo push?

What you are missing is the much higher probability of being dominated when called. AK-AJ plus JJ+ are all potential callers based upon stack sizes. A shortie might call with 99+. In other words, what is CALLING your push that you are way ahead of?

If you want to steal the blinds from EP, I'd suggest T9s as a better hand to gamble with. However, in a sat, you really should not be playing much of anything from EP. Hope this helps.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

[ QUOTE ]
reg why would i add-on in this spot? surely it doesn't hold enough equity to be worthwhile. Being top 15 in chips with 14k or whatever it was and the avg at 5.5k adding on seems like spewing $$$$$ to me.

I realize the addon is a no brainer most times, i think being in the top 10% of the field negates the value of the addon.

[/ QUOTE ]
Adding 15% to your stack (especially for 3$) is far from spewing. Read the Anthology threads on rebuys/sats, I believe it's mentioned there that you should basically always add-on unless you have like 10% of total chips in play or something retarded like that.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

"especially for 3$"

i believe this to have 0 relevance to the discussion. say it were a 200 rebuy. the same principles should apply.

I will search for info on the add-on. I just don't see it as good in this spot.

beach,

My ep raise was targeted at the mid sized bb who happened to be to my immediate right. i guess i overvalued his stack size and undervalued my hand/table position.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

With 4k/8k blinds and a 56k stack you can almost definitely fold into a seat here. Don't take risks like this, especially with a mediocre hand like KJo into a full table from EP. As others already said, you are never way ahead of any hand when you are called and you are taking the maxiumum amount of risk by pushing from early position.

Based on how you posted this, you know the play was retarded. Don't do it. Simple as that.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

[ QUOTE ]
"especially for 3$"

i believe this to have 0 relevance to the discussion. say it were a 200 rebuy. the same principles should apply.

[/ QUOTE ]
In general this would be true, my comment was directed at the fact that this was a $3r sat and not one of the 8.8/10r ones, meaning an add-on gets you more bang for your buck. Sorry for not expressing that clearly.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

[ QUOTE ]
"especially for 3$"

i believe this to have 0 relevance to the discussion. say it were a 200 rebuy. the same principles should apply.

I will search for info on the add-on. I just don't see it as good in this spot.

beach,

My ep raise was targeted at the mid sized bb who happened to be to my immediate right. i guess i overvalued his stack size and undervalued my hand/table position.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've just accidentally deleted the post on addons I was writing so I'm just going to ask you to trust me on this one: always addon.

There's a lot of Stars/Party specific stuff that I wouldn't fully endorse about rebuys in the 2+2 dogma, but always adding on is unquestionably correct.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

[ QUOTE ]

beach,

My ep raise was targeted at the mid sized bb who happened to be to my immediate right. i guess i overvalued his stack size and undervalued my hand/table position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you just confirmed my point. By *only* focusing on the BB on your immediate right, you "forgot" about the other 7 players in the hand. KJ is a REALLY bad hand if you happen to get called.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

You should def add on, even in this situation.

Pushing KJ from EP in this situation is also unquestionably retarded. Beach explained it pretty well.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

yeah i suck. my endgame in the sat's seems quite weak. thankfully i get punished EVRY SINGLE TIME FOR IT. hopefully i'll keep improving. i seem to put myself in a good position, so once i learn proper late game strategy i think i'll make a couple of bucks.


With the Add on, i searched for the anthology and found nothing.

I am havign a hard time seeing the value in this spot. please point me in the right direction for info or og into detail if possible.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

[ QUOTE ]
yeah i suck. my endgame in the sat's seems quite weak. thankfully i get punished EVRY SINGLE TIME FOR IT. hopefully i'll keep improving. i seem to put myself in a good position, so once i learn proper late game strategy i think i'll make a couple of bucks.


With the Add on, i searched for the anthology and found nothing.

I am havign a hard time seeing the value in this spot. please point me in the right direction for info or og into detail if possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

To give a simple example: you have 14k before the break and I have 10k. I add-on and you don't. I now threaten you. All the short stacks that have added on now threaten you more.

It is unquestionably easier to play tournament poker with a big stack - the bigger the stack, the easier it is.

Lastly, tournament chip leader sits down in front. You flop a set, he flops a smaller set. The 2k you added now becomes 4k.

One more thing, you are table chip leader, without the addon. It's great. One villain doubles up. You're not table chip leader anymore. It's not so great.

And another thing, you are table chip leader. It's great. You get moved to a table that's been manic and there are four larger stacks. You lose a pot. There are eight larger stacks.

If you don't have a roll to take the add-on, don't play a rebuy. It is in all ways, shapes and forms +EV to take all the chips available when they are offered to you.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

Here are the things you did wrong and reasons why :

Add on - Always buy. Everyone else is doing it! why arnt you? it makes more sence to buy the add on to me if you are ahead rather than behind because you actually have a chance at winning this thing!!!

Pushing with KJ - Only person who is calling you has you beat, or PP / coinflip. I used to make this same mistake, this isnt a bad move on the button with no limpers vs SS, but you are risking your Tourney life on a mediocre hand at best. i see more people bust with KJ than any other hand.

so i think the main thing you need to remember is POSITION. Dont be desperate. everyone else is in the same boat with you... just wait for a premium hand and push, or wait until no one comes in and push the button with garbage.

oh, and one more thing, DONT LIMP. If you are playing a hand make sure you have decent position and always raise.

hope this was helpful.

kyle

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

Im not sure if not adding on or that EP push was worse, Im going to say PROBABLY the push but its close. One flaw you make is assuming you'll only get called by 4 hands, just because thats what SHOULD happen doesnt mean thats what WILL happen, what about the shortstack who needs to double up, he's folding AQ here when he's probably a donk? Big stack is going to fold Tens here when he's also probably a donk? Sats are so soft primarily because there calling ranges are way too loose, this is why adanthar can buy Africa with $W. you know what you should play from EP here? KK+, MAAAYBE QQ+.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

[ QUOTE ]
With 4k/8k blinds and a 56k stack you can almost definitely fold into a seat here. Don't take risks like this, especially with a mediocre hand like KJo into a full table from EP.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is a key point here. You will still qualify even if your stack is $1 after the 16th player has busted. There is absolutely no reason to play KJo from any position here. You have plenty of time to let others bust themselves. If you are getting panicky, wait for a better hand for this move.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

+1 for always buy the addon. I can't do the math but the explanations I read make a lot of sense.

+1 for WTF? KJo? This is the point in the satellite where you want to be turn-coal-into-diamonds tight. Steal from LP, with AT LEAST an ace. I used to steal with bare aces but have given it up because of getting "snapped off" by things like KJo. Oh wait... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

i suck bad. kj seems woirse and worse.

still having trouble finding the logice for the auto addon. i would say i'd addon 95% of the time. but with that many chips i DO NOT thnkk that it is +$EV to do so. I get 2k extra chips or 15% of my stack. If there is 3k in the prizepool that would make my investment $10 roughly %5 if i win the seat. Also there should be roughly 2,000,000 chips in playmaking it what $3 for .1% of the chips in play? not what i would call a value.

How would we assign a value to those chips as they relate to my ability to get the seat?

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

[ QUOTE ]
How would we assign a value to those chips as they relate to my ability to get the seat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Rough guesstimate outlined below:


14k static, assume 90% take the addon, that's an average of t1800 added to the average stack, bumping it to t7.3k (accuracy be damned, just outlining an example)

You drop from a having 2.54x the average chips to 1.91x the average. A 33% drop.

Take the addon, your stack is 2.19x the average, or a 16% drop.

Monetary value of addon in comparsion to the seat value, regardless of your investment: 3/215 or 1.3%.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

so would i bbe correct in taking away from those numbers that the add on give me $3 worth of value(3/215)?

if so it would be right on the money to take it. certainly not the slam dunk everyone makes it out to be.

and than ks for the math.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

[ QUOTE ]
so would i bbe correct in taking away from those numbers that the add on give me $3 worth of value(3/215)?

if so it would be right on the money to take it. certainly not the slam dunk everyone makes it out to be.

and than ks for the math.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is a slamdunk. You practically have to have 8-9 times the average chips before taking the insurance is redundant.

Re: Why do i keep doing it? Satellite guys help me out.
 

Item #15 in the FAQ discusses add-ons briefly ,can't find anything in the Anthology.

There is been extensive discussion on this issue in the Books and Publications forum about this. (It's since turned into a more extensive discussion.) Sklansky's advice in TPFAP says to take the add-on unless you'll be significantly above average after everyone else adds on. Arnold Snyder in his book The Poker Tournament Formula advises always adding on. He's written a few articles on his website here (look for links to the article on re-buys and possibly the valuation of chip articles on the lower left). Do a search on "Snyder" in the books forum and you'll find lots of the argument for and against.