Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

"Only game of the day analysis" YTD: 2-0

I'm posting this a day early, because I really like a play, and the line seems to be moving against it, so it's worth getting on before tomorrow.

Southern Miss:
@ FLorida - L, 34-7
SE Louisiana - W, 45-0
NC State - W, 37-17

RB Damion Fletcher is tearing it up on the ground, for 6.1 yards per carry, and QB Jeremy Young is doing what he needs to do to keep the defense honest, hitting 58% for 7.85 yards per attempt (125). Against NC State the offense was clicking on all cylinders, both running and throwing at will, and massively stuffed the run defensively. Against Florida they couldn't stop Leak, but that's Florida, and as a bright spot they still ran it for 4.8 ypc. Killing SE Louisiana doesn't mean much but at least they killed them. This looks like a very solid offense, especially in the rushing attack, and a decent defense, particularly against the run.

UCF:
Villanova - W, 35-16
@ Florida - L, 42-0
South Florida - L, 24-17

Villanova is 1-2 against 1-AA competition, to go along with the loss to UCF. In this game UCF was held to 2.8 ypc, and let Villanova throw the ball efficiently, only getting the 19 point win by virtue of a 15/20 passing performance by QB Steven Moffett, for 199 yards and 3 TDs. Against Florida, UCF WON the turnover battle 4-0, and STILL lost 42-0. They were outgained 637-153, and could do NOTHING (except get occasional takeaways) on either side of the ball. In the USF game, Moffett was 19/44 with 2 picks, although the running game was marginally decent. USF's QB meanwhile picked them apart for 301 yards and 3 TDs on 21/31 passing.

Overall, Moffett is 50%, and the running backs are averaging 3.7 ypc each, with the team rushing as a whole being at 2.8 ypc. This offense looks HORRENDOUS, and even worse, it's one-dimensional, with half of Moffett's 48 completions being to one receiver, Mike Walker.

My take:
The only hint of strength in UCF's pathetic offense, is a running game that might be mediocre, instead of bad, and Southern Miss has been shutting down the run this year. Defensively it bodes well for UCF that they're slowing the run down some, but they haven't been light's out, and they've been destroyed through the air by everyone. Southern Miss can throw it well enough, to go along with what so far is a great running game, to move it easily I think. Oh yeah, and last year Southern Miss led 45-7 at halftime, winning 52-31 with UCF backdooring the last 17 points in the fourth quarter.

Southern Miss is -4.5 on Pinny and -5 on Cris, but as of now you can still get -4 -107 in the Mansion exchange or -4 -110 at TheGreek as of this posting. This is @ Central Florida, so I see a 31-14 type score here. Neutral site 34-7 would sound more likely. I just jumped on this line, and recommend you do the same.

(Also, if UCF is as bad on offense as I think, the under may be good too, but it's a much weaker lean. Southern Miss -4 is my bet here).

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

Edit on the under: It was 50 at some sites when I started this writeup, now 48 everywhere, so I was probably right about there being some potential value, but there's probably less now.

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

ty again for your 'only game of the day analysis'

You've convinced me

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

[ QUOTE ]
"Only game of the day analysis" YTD: 2-0

I'm posting this a day early, because I really like a play, and the line seems to be moving against it, so it's worth getting on before tomorrow.

Southern Miss:
@ FLorida - L, 34-7
SE Louisiana - W, 45-0
NC State - W, 37-17

RB Damion Fletcher is tearing it up on the ground, for 6.1 yards per carry, and QB Jeremy Young is doing what he needs to do to keep the defense honest, hitting 58% for 7.85 yards per attempt (125). Against NC State the offense was clicking on all cylinders, both running and throwing at will, and massively stuffed the run defensively. Against Florida they couldn't stop Leak, but that's Florida, and as a bright spot they still ran it for 4.8 ypc. Killing SE Louisiana doesn't mean much but at least they killed them. This looks like a very solid offense, especially in the rushing attack, and a decent defense, particularly against the run.

UCF:
Villanova - W, 35-16
@ Florida - L, 42-0
South Florida - L, 24-17

Villanova is 1-2 against 1-AA competition, to go along with the loss to UCF. In this game UCF was held to 2.8 ypc, and let Villanova throw the ball efficiently, only getting the 19 point win by virtue of a 15/20 passing performance by QB Steven Moffett, for 199 yards and 3 TDs. Against Florida, UCF WON the turnover battle 4-0, and STILL lost 42-0. They were outgained 637-153, and could do NOTHING (except get occasional takeaways) on either side of the ball. In the USF game, Moffett was 19/44 with 2 picks, although the running game was marginally decent. USF's QB meanwhile picked them apart for 301 yards and 3 TDs on 21/31 passing.

Overall, Moffett is 50%, and the running backs are averaging 3.7 ypc each, with the team rushing as a whole being at 2.8 ypc. This offense looks HORRENDOUS, and even worse, it's one-dimensional, with half of Moffett's 48 completions being to one receiver, Mike Walker.

My take:
The only hint of strength in UCF's pathetic offense, is a running game that might be mediocre, instead of bad, and Southern Miss has been shutting down the run this year. Defensively it bodes well for UCF that they're slowing the run down some, but they haven't been light's out, and they've been destroyed through the air by everyone. Southern Miss can throw it well enough, to go along with what so far is a great running game, to move it easily I think. Oh yeah, and last year Southern Miss led 45-7 at halftime, winning 52-31 with UCF backdooring the last 17 points in the fourth quarter.

Southern Miss is -4.5 on Pinny and -5 on Cris, but as of now you can still get -4 -107 in the Mansion exchange or -4 -110 at TheGreek as of this posting. This is @ Central Florida, so I see a 31-14 type score here. Neutral site 34-7 would sound more likely. I just jumped on this line, and recommend you do the same.

(Also, if UCF is as bad on offense as I think, the under may be good too, but it's a much weaker lean. Southern Miss -4 is my bet here).

[/ QUOTE ]

The under was a play that I had marked if the total had come just a smidge higher, but I think it was close at 50.5 and that most of the value is gone at 48 (would still play that side if I were betting, though).

I would also lean toward So. Miss. here at -4.

Good analysis.

ML4L

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

So what's the verdict? Bodog has Southern Miss -6.5 and the o/u is 47. It's teaseable up to 7 pts. either way

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

[ QUOTE ]
So what's the verdict? Bodog has Southern Miss -6.5 and the o/u is 47. It's teaseable up to 7 pts. either way

[/ QUOTE ]
Verdict #1: I was smart to post this a day early.
Verdict #2: I was on the right side of the line move, good sign for my handicapping.
Verdict #3: You need to read the forums more frequently (or hesitate to follow less) :P

If my score predictions are right, then this bet is still good at -6.5, I still like the line, but it's definitely not as good as it was at -4. I would still take it, but be willing to accept it if they win by 6.

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

I did read yesterday, however my money is tied into Bodog right now and they didn't put the lines up until late last night, and it opened on there at 6.5

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

Heh, yeah, understandable, I'm just being my sarcastic self, as usual. Anyway, yeah, I see this game as a huge mismatch, with lots of blowout potential, so I still like 6.5, but I'm glad to be locked in at -4 instead. Best of luck if you follow, may all our bets win.

Oh, and as for the total of 47, I'd bet under before I bet over, but I don't see much value in it anymore, I would consider about 45 to be fair. No recommended bet there, but my lean is still under.

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

I can make it a two way teaser and get Southern Miss at pick and the o41 or u53 1/2

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

[ QUOTE ]
I can make it a two way teaser and get Southern Miss at pick and the o41 or u53 1/2

[/ QUOTE ]

I teased it for So Miss +1.5 and U 54.5

Prolly went way overboard on the tease...major n00b here, never did a tease before.

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

Im in, SMI -6 and SMI ovr 26.5 -120. I'll believe that UCF has any defense when I see it.

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

UCF's starting running back was out for the South Florida game, so their running game will probably be better this week. Also, UCF's well-coached enough under George O' Leary that I can't really see them falling off this season overall. I was actually considering betting the first half line on UCF, but you talked me out of it.

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

[ QUOTE ]
Im in, SMI -6 and SMI ovr 26.5 -120. I'll believe that UCF has any defense when I see it.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://channelxml.com/images/The-Sim...urns-Excel.jpg

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

nice job again [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

3-0 on "only game of the day" plays, now, with apologies to those of you who got in at -6, or -6.5.

The Southern Miss offense failed to meet my excpectations, but once again I sneak in a win thanks to a pick six.

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

I ended up teasing the game, so I covered the under and the 1/2 point I was giving, thank you sir. Now if someone on here could tell me what horses to bet on I'd be extremely pleased!!!!!

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

[ QUOTE ]
Now if someone on here could tell me what horses to bet on I'd be extremely pleased!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

fast ones

bills217 on stars

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

HAHAHHAHAHHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHA

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

I made a bonehead tease (thx perf for pointing it out) and lost value in my bet....but won regardless so THANKS 2+2 YET AGAIN!!

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Now if someone on here could tell me what horses to bet on I'd be extremely pleased!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

fast ones

bills217 on stars

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought it was "slow and steady" ones that won the race. HALF MY MONEY ON THE SLOW HORSE! (I'll take the other half to a roulette table, and put it all on blue.)

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

[ QUOTE ]
my money is tied into Bodog right now and they didn't put the lines up until late last night, and it opened on there at 6.5

[/ QUOTE ]

This is precisely the reason I dumped BoDog as a newbie online sportsbetter last year. Their lines were always late (esp. for college hoop) and seemed to be on the wrong side of .5 to 1 point moves. There is also less flexibilty on the juice (always -110 on football) and I wasn't able to see how to buy/sell points.

I switched to Pinnacle this year and have no regrets. And any possible loss of deposit bonus was recouped last night because I had So Miss -4.5 instead of 6 or whatever it closed.

Re: Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
my money is tied into Bodog right now and they didn't put the lines up until late last night, and it opened on there at 6.5

[/ QUOTE ]

This is precisely the reason I dumped BoDog as a newbie online sportsbetter last year. Their lines were always late (esp. for college hoop) and seemed to be on the wrong side of .5 to 1 point moves. There is also less flexibilty on the juice (always -110 on football) and I wasn't able to see how to buy/sell points.

I switched to Pinnacle this year and have no regrets. And any possible loss of deposit bonus was recouped last night because I had So Miss -4.5 instead of 6 or whatever it closed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bodog is one of the best sites to bet dogs at, if for whatever reason you only want 1 book, pinny should be it, but I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Bodog