Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

so far 1 unit down on PHL/GB over 45.5, if PHL is missing any of Dawkins/Lewis/Hood, McCoy and with Dante back this will be a shootout, if anyone can throw all over a replacement D, it's Favre, and Green looks solid.

SD -2. Probably a controversial pick, but I think the Chargers are for real, coming off the bye. Balt I still have questions about. 3 wins over opposition with an 0-8 record = not impressed yet.

eyeballing SEA +2.5.

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

The Chargers are one of those teams that's just as good on the road and they're the better team, so I'm ok with that.

Don't like Seattle. At home in primetime, that'll be the Bears official coming out party in case there are any doubters left. I confess I'm an Alexander-hater; does he ever do anything vs. a good defense?

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
eyeballing SEA +2.5.


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

I like Seattle because it's primetime. I think Seattle wants to prove they're one full notch above everyone else. No Superbowl loser let down this year. Bears haven't seen a D this nasty this year. Seattle is gonna be soo fired up for this primetime game.

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bears haven't seen a D this nasty this year. Seattle is gonna be soo fired up for this primetime game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Minnesota's D is a lot closer to Seattle's than any D Seattle has played is to the Bears.

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

I wonder what the NE-Cincy line will be after this game. I'm shocked that NE is this flat in a revenge game, but I might want to take points next week vs. a Bengals team who will probably party until Friday after today's win.

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

Indianapolis Colts -9
New York Jets +9

San Diego Chargers -2.5
Baltimore Ravens +2.5

Minnesota Vikings pk
Buffalo Bills pk

Dallas Cowboys -9
Tennessee Titans +9

San Francisco 49ers +7.5
Kansas City Chiefs -7.5

New Orleans Saints +8
Carolina Panthers -8

Arizona Cardinals +7.5
Atlanta Falcons -7.5

Miami Dolphins -4
Houston Texans +4

Detroit Lions +6
St Louis Rams -6

New England Patriots +5.5
Cincinnati Bengals -5.5

Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5
Washington Redskins +2.5

Cleveland Browns -1
Oakland Raiders +1

Seattle Seahawks +2.5
Chicago Bears -2.5

Green Bay Packers +10.5
Philadelphia Eagles -10.5

I like Minnesota at pk. I think they are clearly a better team than Buffalo despite blowing the game today.

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

So far I like Jax/Was u34 and Oak ML +111

I am leaning towards Hou +4 but have not pulled the trigger.

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The words "like", "ML", and "Oak" should never be used in the same sentence as long as Art Shell is the coach.

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

Cincy is the 5.5 fav. Wow. I was hoping to see like a 3 there.

-Brendan

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

I locked in 2 unit plays on San Diego and on Cincy. That Cincy line is gonna move to 6 or higher pretty quickly.

-Brendan

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

minn vs buffalo PK..wow

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20 Minutes later the Cincy line is at -6 now. This has a good chance of hitting -7 by game time.

-Brendan

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

Anyone else like the titans at +9?

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I'm thinking of the under at 33.5 in the Raiders/Browns game. Raiders got a very solid, underrated D and no way Raiders score 2 TD's, let alone one. It's a small number, but it adds up.

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Anyone else like the titans at +9?

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If you put a gun to my head.
Tough game to pick.

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking of the under at 33.5 in the Raiders/Browns game. Raiders got a very solid, underrated D and no way Raiders score 2 TD's, let alone one. It's a small number, but it adds up.

[/ QUOTE ]

They only thing I would worry about here is all the times that the Raiders will turn it over deep in their own end.

Also, you know they will throw a bad interception or two when they are down in the 4th quarter.

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

Absolutely love the tease opportunity of Atl -1.5 / Seattle +8.5, as posted in my early edition picks thread.

I think the Chargers opening line of -2.5 +109 is way off. With the way Baltimore looked today - they let the Browns score twice against them, Browns led 14-3 at half, they're being overvalued for their second half play. Rested Chargers team puts this away easily by a field goal.

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking of the under at 33.5 in the Raiders/Browns game. Raiders got a very solid, underrated D and no way Raiders score 2 TD's, let alone one. It's a small number, but it adds up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm seeing a 17-13ish loss if Raiders play good and a 21-10ish loss if the Raiders play bad.
They only thing I would worry about here is all the times that the Raiders will turn it over deep in their own end.

Also, you know they will throw a bad interception or two when they are down in the 4th quarter.

[/ QUOTE ]

I figure the game to be a little closer at the end this week, so Walter shouldn't be throwing up garbage prayers. I actually see the Raiders moving the ball a little and settling for some field goals while eating clock. The bye should have improved some blocking schemes(a little), thus reducing the likelihood for Walter fumbles.

I'm seeing a 17-13ish loss if Raiders play good and a 21-10ish loss if they play bad.

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

I like the Chargers but FWIW - the bye week means nothing this early, especially given the momentum they had after 2 games.

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

also one unit on Cincy -5.5.

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[ QUOTE ]
I like the Chargers but FWIW - the bye week means nothing this early, especially given the momentum they had after 2 games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meaning you think it hurts them coming off a bye? Or at least doesn't help?

I'd disagree. I don't think its a huge factor, by any means, but resting extra days and having extra practice time is going to help and not hurt. Its not like they're going to be out of sync for missing the game and taking the Sunday off. Its an extra week of recovery time from the bumps and bruises, several extra days of preparation and film study, and an opportunity for extra rest. The extra practice more than makes up for the lack of gametime. And its not like this is a young team for the most part: the core rush-first offense knows what they're doing and are going to benefit from the extra time off in my opinion.

May not be the bigger advantage that you see for a week 8/9 bye where that extra week of rest in the middle of the season is even more helpful, but all the factors that make the team coming off bye a positive are going to be there, in my opinion.

But that said, the bye certainly isn't some huge factor in why I like this line. I'd like this line if they were coming off a brusing game this week.

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

I like 2 road team: Saints +9 -104 @ Panthers & Jags -2.5 @ Washington.

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[ QUOTE ]
also one unit on Cincy -5.5.

[/ QUOTE ]
I wished I jumped on this before it moved to -6 but I still like this bet. I'm a NE fan but the Pats pass coverage is terrible. Rodney Harrison is still recovering from injury, Asante Samuel is too small/slow. No way the Pats secondary can contain Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh. And we haven't even mentioned Rudi Johnson. Yea, the Bengals offense is too good for a mediocre/bad Pats defense.

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
also one unit on Cincy -5.5.

[/ QUOTE ]
I wished I jumped on this before it moved to -6 but I still like this bet. I'm a NE fan but the Pats pass coverage is terrible. Rodney Harrison is still recovering from injury, Asante Samuel is too small/slow. No way the Pats secondary can contain Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh. And we haven't even mentioned Rudi Johnson. Yea, the Bengals offense is too good for a mediocre/bad Pats defense.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I may add at -6 here.

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

what does PK stand for?

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

PicK em, even money, no juice.

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[ QUOTE ]
PicK em, even money, no juice.

[/ QUOTE ]
That isn't true. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the juice in the odds, not the spread? For example the Min v Buf game is currently:

Minnesota Vikings pk +107
Buffalo Bills pk -115

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

Correct. PK doesn't mean "no juice" it means "no spread".
I.e the spread for a game listed at PK or Pick is +0 (or -0, whatever) for each side.

Went ahead and added the term to the FAQ.

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

Alexander may not play, so avoiding the CHI game for now.

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

Added some more Oak ML @ +131.

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[ QUOTE ]
Alexander may not play, so avoiding the CHI game for now.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wouldn't this mean we'd want to jump on this the Chi line before it moves too far? It's already moved half a point.

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I just jumped on the Chi line but now I'm regretting it. Even with SA out, he was sucking in the first 3 weeks anyway, they were relying on the passing game. My only hope is that the Bears pass D is amazing.

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Personally, I was liking the Bears so far in this one, with or without Alexander.

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[ QUOTE ]
I just jumped on the Chi line but now I'm regretting it. Even with SA out, he was sucking in the first 3 weeks anyway, they were relying on the passing game. My only hope is that the Bears pass D is amazing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there is a possibility that this game will get to Seahawks +4 or 4.5 by the end of the week.

I plan to take SEA if it gets to SEA +4.5 -105.

I think you will have a decent chance at a side or a middle if you decide that you really don't like your CHI bet.

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I think Alexander just being in the game helps the passing game, even if he is hobbled.

The D doesn't know if he's hurt, or how bad, so they still have to key on him. I think this next game, Chi will key on the passing game.

Does anybody else think Carolina -8 looks crazy.

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I absolutely LOVE Carolina -2 in teasers this week. Even more so if the Saints win tonight(up 14-3 now). No way New Orleans matches tonights emotion next week on the road.

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[ QUOTE ]
I absolutely LOVE Carolina -2 in teasers this week. Even more so if the Saints win tonight(up 14-3 now). No way New Orleans matches tonights emotion next week on the road.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, that could get ugly if SS is healthy.

Re: Early NFL week 4 thoughts
 

I just put a unit on the under for Atlanta/Arizona next week at 40 before it moves any more. Leinart's nowhere near ready to be an NFL QB (he's starting next week if you missed it), and here are the totals for Atlanta's first three games: 26, 17, 26. I kind of feel like I should put more down, but I mainly bet college games, and I'm not very confident on the NFL.

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So what's up with the chargers - 2.5? Am I missing something? Is it because they played relatively weak teams so far and are overrated for a road game against the ravens? Because it looks like a solid game of the week to me.