Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1

There is a team in the NFL in total disarray. Their starting running back is out for the season so they picked up RON DAYNE of all people. They passed on Reggie Bush in the draft which is looking like a real bonehead move now. Their new coach is supposed to turn David Carr into a real QB and their receiving corps has one lone bright spot. They shored it up with an aging vet from the Bills but it doesn't look good.

Take the Texans at +5.5

Everyone knows that the 9ers are an absolute joke. They couldn't score on a team of poweder puff girls. My little sister could QB that team better than Alex Smith. They have absolutely no chance of winning a single game this year. Everyone knows that. And the Cards on the other hand, they Cards signed EDGERRIN JAMES! Man that guy could move a pile of elephants so that pack of limp-wristed mincing pretty boys on the 9er defense will have no chance.

And don't forget this:
Kurt Warner superbowl appearances: 2
Alex Smith regular season wins: 2

Take the 9ers +9 (it opened at 7.5)


Last but not least, we are witnessing the demise of Brett Favre. It is a sad thing to see. His team is failing him and his brains are addled. He looks lost on the field. His new coach is clearly out of his depth. The Packers may give the 9ers a run for their money as worst team in the league. It is going to be a sad day for packer fans when the bears come to town.

Take the packers +3.5

This card stinks so bad that I'm nervous about pulling the trigger on these but I gotta do it. I mean look how bad this is. Oh god I hate myself but I have no choice. Go Packers.

natedogg

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

every single person I've heard has said to bet against buffalo....

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

Man, i hate these picks. Hate, hate, hate them.







So looks like a good week in BSP-land.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

Good to see the BSP's back again this year Nate... looking forward to results!

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

nice to see you are still drinking natedogg

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

What about the Lions? Seattle seems to be the most popular play in the 3+1 pool; which wasn't why I picked Detroit as I picked before reading the other replies, but it certainly made me feel better.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

I like the Texans quite a bit actually. The Niners I don't feel too horribly about at +9.




As for the Packers, well, I'm gonna bet on them at WSEX and consider it a donation to rake-free poker.

P.S. Thanks for not including the Bills - I have a multi-unit play on Pats -8. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
What about the Lions? Seattle seems to be the most popular play in the 3+1 pool; which wasn't why I picked Detroit as I picked before reading the other replies, but it certainly made me feel better.

[/ QUOTE ]

EDIT: sorry, shouldn't post while drunk but it's almost 1pm! What do you expect?

*Seahawks* and Chargers were the BSP runner-ups this week. You should feel pretty good taking the Lions I would say.

natedogg

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

woohoo


I love BSP [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

awesome keep it up

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
awesome keep it up

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

actually sounds like my drunken brainstorming sessions on saturday nights...

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

yayy BSP is back! last year was a great run...lets hope for another one this year [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

I like the Texans and 49ers picks a lot due to the phenomenon. Not sure about the Packers though. I think the people who automatically bet against Favre are counterbalanced by the people who emotionally want Favre to win in his last season, and bet the other way. Definitely like the idea though. I don't usually bet NFL games, but I think I might at least have to hit up that SF line.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

much love for these Nate. Analysis that defies analysis.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

A lotta people like the 49ers here.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

I love the bar stool pundits, but sometimes the public is right, even though it's usually not for the right reasons. I like the 49ers and Packers, but my favorite play of the week right now is Philly. If you look at how both the Texans and Eagles are perceived, just about everyone expects them to finish last in their divisions, as opposed to Arizona who everyone is talking about as a playoff contender now just because they signed Edge.

There's one constant at every level of football -- the team that wins the battle at the line of scrimmage usually wins, and Philly has a superior line on both sides of the ball. In addition to this, I truly believe that Philly has better players in just about every area except wr, olb, and the return game.

This Philly team is healthy (unlike last year), and they have been getting no respect the entire offseason -- they are focused and are on a mission.

I already got Philly at - 3.5, so if the Texans do cover it will probably be because of the hook, but I think if they played this game a million times, Philly covers > 60% of the time.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
I love the bar stool pundits, but sometimes the public is right, even though it's usually not for the right reasons. I like the 49ers and Packers, but my favorite play of the week right now is Philly. If you look at how both the Texans and Eagles are perceived, just about everyone expects them to finish last in their divisions, as opposed to Arizona who everyone is talking about as a playoff contender now just because they signed Edge.

There's one constant at every level of football -- the team that wins the battle at the line of scrimmage usually wins, and Philly has a superior line on both sides of the ball. In addition to this, I truly believe that Philly has better players in just about every area except wr, olb, and the return game.

This Philly team is healthy (unlike last year), and they have been getting no respect the entire offseason -- they are focused and are on a mission.

I already got Philly at - 3.5, so if the Texans do cover it will probably be because of the hook, but I think if they played this game a million times, Philly covers > 60% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

don't get me wrong. It breaks my heart to bet on Houston, but I just report 'em like I see 'em. I am a Bar Stool Pundit. I don't see how any of my bets will win. the 9ers I do kind of like because of intangibles but on paper it's disgusting. the other two I am punching myself in the face for betting on.

natedogg

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

have fun losing your money!

the only decent bet here is the packers...

i dont see sf+9, still 7.5 on wallstreet.

you will be 1-2 at best

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
A lotta people like the 49ers here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I imagine the 49ers are a popular "sharp" pick. I myself think they are a good bet. But the Bar Stool Pundits are all over the Cardinals. The BSPs are willing to bet their first-born on the Cards this week. I really waffled between the 9ers and the Seahawks but it really felt like the Cards bettors were completely based on superficial thinking compared to the 'hawks bettors. So the 9ers got it.

natedogg

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
i dont see sf+9, still 7.5 on wallstreet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pinnacle has +9 -115.


[ QUOTE ]
you will be 1-2 at best

[/ QUOTE ]

What kind of odds would you lay on that?

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

BSP is back!! That means it's football season. Gotta love it!

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

Great stuff.

What do you think about the Carolina game or do you take requests for your analysis? By not picking them here, do you think that they are good at -5?

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

in a 6 pt teaser i love it .

i think its a close bet -5. if carolina can shut down the run and force vick to throw they should cover -5 easily.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

I hope there is some good middle, because I have AZ in my suicide pool.

But I'm also coming along with the BSPs.

DN

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
you will be 1-2 at best

[/ QUOTE ]
So you think that at best, 1 of these three underdogs beats the spread? I'll do you one better.

I'll put up even money that at least one of these three dogs will WIN straight up. Any takers?

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
have fun losing your money!

the only decent bet here is the packers...

i dont see sf+9, still 7.5 on wallstreet.

you will be 1-2 at best

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop being a troll. No one cares what you think.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will be 1-2 at best

[/ QUOTE ]
So you think that at best, 1 of these three underdogs beats the spread? I'll do you one better.

I'll put up even money that exactly one of these three dogs will WIN straight up. Any takers?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm in. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will be 1-2 at best

[/ QUOTE ]
So you think that at best, 1 of these three underdogs beats the spread? I'll do you one better.

I'll put up even money that exactly one of these three dogs will WIN straight up. Any takers?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm in. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Really? I didn't think I'd get anyone who actually knows anything... *Double Checks The Moneylines To Confirm That This Is A Sucker's Bet*

Okay, what stakes would you like?

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will be 1-2 at best

[/ QUOTE ]
So you think that at best, 1 of these three underdogs beats the spread? I'll do you one better.

I'll put up even money that exactly one of these three dogs will WIN straight up. Any takers?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm in. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Really? I didn't think I'd get anyone who actually knows anything... *Double Checks The Moneylines To Confirm That This Is A Sucker's Bet*

Okay, what stakes would you like?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm messing with you. I changed your original quote. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will be 1-2 at best

[/ QUOTE ]
So you think that at best, 1 of these three underdogs beats the spread? I'll do you one better.

I'll put up even money that exactly one of these three dogs will WIN straight up. Any takers?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm in. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Really? I didn't think I'd get anyone who actually knows anything... *Double Checks The Moneylines To Confirm That This Is A Sucker's Bet*

Okay, what stakes would you like?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm messing with you. I changed your original quote. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Lol, and I'm officially PWNED. Nice hand. If only I'd double checked the thing that actually mattered [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will be 1-2 at best

[/ QUOTE ]
So you think that at best, 1 of these three underdogs beats the spread? I'll do you one better.

I'll put up even money that exactly one of these three dogs will WIN straight up. Any takers?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm in. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Really? I didn't think I'd get anyone who actually knows anything... *Double Checks The Moneylines To Confirm That This Is A Sucker's Bet*

Okay, what stakes would you like?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm messing with you. I changed your original quote. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Lol, and I'm officially PWNED. Nice hand. If only I'd double checked the thing that actually mattered [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

BTW, if anyone is up for the revised bet, let me know. If exactly 1 dog out of 3 wins, I pay you. Otherwise, you pay me. Even money bet. Hell, I'll even give you +110.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will be 1-2 at best

[/ QUOTE ]
So you think that at best, 1 of these three underdogs beats the spread? I'll do you one better.

I'll put up even money that at least one of these three dogs will WIN straight up. Any takers?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll bet you $25 that neither AZ or Eagles lose.

Chi vs. Pack isnt even worth toughing in my opinion with Farve and Grossman at the helms.

oops--nevermind lol

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will be 1-2 at best

[/ QUOTE ]
So you think that at best, 1 of these three underdogs beats the spread? I'll do you one better.

I'll put up even money that exactly one of these three dogs will WIN straight up. Any takers?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm in. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Really? I didn't think I'd get anyone who actually knows anything... *Double Checks The Moneylines To Confirm That This Is A Sucker's Bet*

Okay, what stakes would you like?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm messing with you. I changed your original quote. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Lol, and I'm officially PWNED. Nice hand. If only I'd double checked the thing that actually mattered [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

BTW, if anyone is up for the revised bet, let me know. If exactly 1 dog out of 3 wins, I pay you. Otherwise, you pay me. Even money bet. Hell, I'll even give you +110.

[/ QUOTE ]
Give me +130 and it's a deal. Or take my original at +175, if you'd prefer.

EDIT: I'm also willing to bet on TWO OR MORE of the three upsets, if you'll give me +400.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will be 1-2 at best

[/ QUOTE ]
So you think that at best, 1 of these three underdogs beats the spread? I'll do you one better.

I'll put up even money that exactly one of these three dogs will WIN straight up. Any takers?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm in. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Really? I didn't think I'd get anyone who actually knows anything... *Double Checks The Moneylines To Confirm That This Is A Sucker's Bet*

Okay, what stakes would you like?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm messing with you. I changed your original quote. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Lol, and I'm officially PWNED. Nice hand. If only I'd double checked the thing that actually mattered [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

BTW, if anyone is up for the revised bet, let me know. If exactly 1 dog out of 3 wins, I pay you. Otherwise, you pay me. Even money bet. Hell, I'll even give you +110.

[/ QUOTE ]
Give me +130 and it's a deal. Or take my original at +175, if you'd prefer.

EDIT: I'm also willing to bet on TWO OR MORE of the three upsets, if you'll give me +400.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not even going to bother checking the numbers and will just say no. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Let me know when you find the suckers...

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

I like the BSP so much, I made a picture

http://www.jonramz.com/images/bsp.jpg


[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
-Ftball

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

Hey nate,

What was the BSP record at the end of the season last year? I'm glad it's back.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

Spoken like a true NEWBIE. Hang around for a while and you will see. Change your name to BSPPAT1999.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

Some fun info (as of within 1 hour leading to this post):

From Yahoo! (sadly, these are only available ahead of time when there's something like a lone Thursday game) and ESPN as well as a 5,000 pick sample from a site that runs pools

Team - Y!/ESPN/3rd

Denver - 72%/78%/78%
New England - 75%/79%/74%
Seattle - 83%/90%/85%
Philly - 81%/84%/82%
Chicago - 73%/74%/69%
Arizona - 78%/63%/71%
San Diego - 70%/77%/71%

I'm assuming the sample sizes on Yahoo! and ESPN are much larger than 5k, but they don't post total picks.

Last year, the BSP "method" was staggering out of the gate (which makes a lot of sense, since it takes the BSPs several weeks to shake off the previous year's perceptions).

That Seattle line is gross. I live under an hour from Ford Field and am a (long suffering? Brain dead?) Lions fan. Even I don't see how they're not going to get pasted tomorrow.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

Coming from some of the squarest guys I know

"Philly is underrated. And Texans are worst team in league. -5.5 is a lock."

Meh.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, Week 1
 

OK, I'm just dipping my feet into the water on this theory, so I took Detroit at +6 +102. I know it wasn't the most common game listed, but I figured the fact that the most bettors were on Seattle made it worth a try.