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-   -   BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=194389)

canada_dry 08-23-2006 02:28 PM

BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
Typical 6 handed 10/20 limit Party

TAG UTG raises, everyone folds to you the BB.

What is the strongest hand you are willing to lay down?

Fianchetto 08-23-2006 02:33 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
A9o. not sure what you mean by strongest though, I call with something like 98s.

canada_dry 08-23-2006 02:37 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
[ QUOTE ]
A9o. not sure what you mean by strongest though, I call with something like 98s.

[/ QUOTE ]

so basically you call with A10+, and all suited connectors.

all pairs too?

danzasmack 08-23-2006 03:05 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
3 bet some of those...

canada_dry 08-23-2006 03:16 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
[ QUOTE ]
3 bet some of those...

[/ QUOTE ]

You like action i see..

punter11235 08-23-2006 03:19 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
So you guys fold stuff like K9o or 87o ? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
EDIT :
I am curious how you approach solving that kind of problems.
For example K10o has 37% equity vs typical TAG utg range. I guess I have to subtract something for position disadvantage and something for hands which play bad postflop. I am especially curious about that "play bad postflop" part. Are there any threads about the topic ?

danzasmack 08-23-2006 03:24 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3 bet some of those...

[/ QUOTE ]

You like action i see..

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of time 3betting preflop will make a hand a lot easier to play postflop.

Surf 08-23-2006 04:38 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3 bet some of those...

[/ QUOTE ]

You like action i see..

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of time 3betting preflop will make a hand a lot easier to play postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Easier, yes. More +EV? Questionable.

Surf

danzasmack 08-23-2006 04:41 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
if u can bank the tank postflop it is

StellarWind 08-23-2006 07:22 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
Against a typical 25/17 I would play 22, AJo/ATs, KQs/KQo, QJs/QJo, and JTs.

I don't think playing low suited connectors is a good idea.

Nietzsche 08-23-2006 08:11 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
[ QUOTE ]
if u can bank the tank postflop it is

[/ QUOTE ]UTG is in the maneuvering position. Whether or not he has a hand he can present one and be credible.

punter11235 08-23-2006 08:34 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
I am a complete n00b but it seems to me that playing suited connectors is good idea.
How do you determine if the hand is worth playing ? Do you have any any simulations/data or its just experience/intuition ?

StellarWind 08-24-2006 12:09 AM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
[ QUOTE ]
I am a complete n00b but it seems to me that playing suited connectors is good idea.
How do you determine if the hand is worth playing ? Do you have any any simulations/data or its just experience/intuition ?

[/ QUOTE ]
I suggest you play with PokerStove for a while. Make up some typical ranges for PFR and pit them against various hands such as A9o and 76s. The results may cause you to develop some feel for these situations.

The most important thing in heads up situations involving fairly wide hand ranges is not suitedness, connectedness, potentially dominated kickers, or any of that stuff.

It's card size. 76s is a small card and another small card. That's a very bad thing when going up against someone who has two big cards that might be a pair:

1. Your hot-and-cold equity is sad. His cards both outrank your cards. Throw in even a modest chance that he has an overpair to both your cards and you are in really bad shape.

2. Your implied odds suck (part 1): It's cool to make a pat hand with your suited connectors and crack his aces. But for every time you manage to make your flush or straight, there will be a whole lot of times where you pay to showdown a pair of sixes and lose to a big split pair or an overpair. The big implied odds driver in headsup play is both players making one-pair hands. This happens constantly and it's very hard for the loser to avoid paying for a showdown. You are going to lose every time this happens and it's going to cost you plenty.

3. Your implied odds suck (part 2): Making a pat hand doesn't win a big pot heads up. How many bets do you expect him to pay you for your flush? All he's probably got is one pair or an unimproved ace. You'll put one raise in and he'll go directly to turtle mode. The pot will be scarcely bigger than the one you are about to lose with 76 v AQ on a Q9963 board.

helpmeout 08-24-2006 12:18 AM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
yep suited connectors are overrated

they are good against overly tight players who will fold easily to your semibluff raises but against most you just spew chips because you'll rarely flop the best hand and that dude with Ace high isnt folding when you raise your draw

stripsqueez 08-24-2006 02:14 AM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
even assuming a tight UTG raiser there arent too many hands where your not getting pot odds to call in the BB

the issue in this spot is not what you should do pre flop although i would generally agree with the ranges suggested - which is to say unless you have a clear view about whats happening post flop you cant make a good decision pre flop

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

MATT111 08-24-2006 08:37 AM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
[ QUOTE ]
Against a typical 25/17 I would play 22, AJo/ATs, KQs/KQo, QJs/QJo, and JTs.

I don't think playing low suited connectors is a good idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

T9s should typically fair better against an UTG raiser than JTs, no?

marching_on_together 08-24-2006 10:38 AM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
[ QUOTE ]
Against a typical 25/17 I would play 22, AJo/ATs, KQs/KQo, QJs/QJo, and JTs.

I don't think playing low suited connectors is a good idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

A10o plays better than QJo, for me QJo is a muck infact i'd rather have 109s,98s than QJo

Scipio 08-24-2006 02:08 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
I play A9o+, A2s+, KJo+, K8s+, QJo+, Q9s+,J9s+,35s+,34s+,22+

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Against a typical 25/17 I would play 22, AJo/ATs, KQs/KQo, QJs/QJo, and JTs.

I don't think playing low suited connectors is a good idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

T9s should typically fair better against an UTG raiser than JTs, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

I donīt think so.
Your equity is better with JTs, a pair of Jacks can be good against a UTG raiser and if you make your straigh villian often has a good top pair ( Example AKQ23 Board).
So i prefer JTs (but i think itīs close).

kiddo 08-27-2006 04:55 AM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
Why are u playing JTs but not 87s?

U will win most hands HU hitting a pair and with JT u are often dominated, with 87 not.

Also, I think it can go wrong - like u talk about in ur other post - to trust pokerstove to much. A blindwar got very little to do with going allin preflop.

If a 25/17 raise UTG and I defend in BB with 87s. And if I put pressure on other guy whenever I like the flop (lets say 35% + some semibluffs + some pure bluffs (lets say 45% overall) I am pretty sure I will lose less then the 0.5BB i already had to post.

The thing with mid-connectors is that I often can identify which flops are good for me, something that is much harder with a hand like QJo. So even if QJo wins more if we go allin preflop we can win put in more - postflop - when we are ahead with 87 and less when we are behind.

rory 08-27-2006 11:02 AM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
44, AT, KJ

rory 08-27-2006 11:05 AM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
If people will not fold ace high then your goal is to teach him that if he does have ace high he better not bet the turn.

MATT111 08-27-2006 12:57 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
folding a pp here is a massive mistake imo.

rory 08-27-2006 01:08 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
It is impossible for it to be a massive mistake.

MATT111 08-27-2006 01:15 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
[ QUOTE ]
It is impossible for it to be a massive mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can play for set value alone.

rory 08-27-2006 01:20 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
You are getting 3.5:1 to call. You are 8:1 to flop a set. That means every time you flop a set you have to win 2.25 BB to break even

rory 08-27-2006 01:33 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
Since you can't play for set value alone, you have to play for set value plus bluff plus winning unimproved. Let's say on average I win 1.5 extra BB when I flop a set which seems reasonable to me. That means I am missing 0.75 BB somewhere along the way when I am playing simply for set value. I have to think that over those 8 times I call with my pocket pair and I don't make a set that I can win 0.75 BB postflop. I think this is a fairly tall order with a small pocket pair out of position. Generally, your hands will go like this:

check-raise the flop, bet the turn they fold. win 1 BB
check-raise the flop, bet the turn they raise you fold,
you lose -2 BB.
check-call all three streets you win +2.5 BB
check-call all three streets you lose -2.5 BB
c/r flop bet the turn and river they call wi th ace high you win 3 BB
bet-all three streets they hit against you and call the whole way you lose 3 BB

and you never fold the best hand. i think if you think about these scenarios, it is bad to call with a pocket pair if the person is at all aggressive.

now switch it around so you are in position. the scenarios are a lot better for you, mainly because you can play the turn better. in position, you get check-raised on the flop you can throw it away. you have initiative so you can get them to fold the better hand with a flop bet sometimes (a larger pocket pair on a smaller board).

i am getting bored of writing this. maybe you all disagree but this sort of thinking makes sense to me. i used to fold suited connectors in this spot too, but lately i have gone back to calling with them again. i am not sure which is better, or that it matters at all really. i think calling with a small pocket pair is a clear mistake here, though. but the suited connectors is a little more up for grabs because you can withstand a little more action and you have way more outs if you are behind. the little pocket pair if you are behind, you are pretty much screwed. a suited connector will often have enough two pair plus backdoor draws to make it play better.

MATT111 08-27-2006 01:36 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 3.5:1 to call. You are 8:1 to flop a set. That means every time you flop a set you have to win 2.25 BB to break even

[/ QUOTE ]

we make more.

Surf 08-27-2006 02:28 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 3.5:1 to call. You are 8:1 to flop a set. That means every time you flop a set you have to win 2.25 BB to break even

[/ QUOTE ]

we make more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Set != win at showdown, plus your biggest pots are going to be against higher sets. If you can rely on villain to put in 4+ BB postflop with a 1 pair hand then go ahead and call, but I don't think this is anywhere near true for most decent players.

Surf

MATT111 08-27-2006 02:54 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 3.5:1 to call. You are 8:1 to flop a set. That means every time you flop a set you have to win 2.25 BB to break even

[/ QUOTE ]

we make more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Set != win at showdown, plus your biggest pots are going to be against higher sets. If you can rely on villain to put in 4+ BB postflop with a 1 pair hand then go ahead and call, but I don't think this is anywhere near true for most decent players.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]


I think there is almost always 2BB going in by villain. Chances are he has a somewhat decent hand on the flop because of his UTG raising range. Overpair vs set situations are especially juicy and I`d expect to win >4BB here. I`d really be interested in hearing what others think cause making more than 2BB postflop on average seems like not at all close to me. Set vs set happens very very rarely. Must be 1 time out of 100 IF villain has a pp too. What happens more frequently is flush vs fh.

Plus: We of course have decent equity on many flops without having hit so we certainly sometimes continue.

gehrig 08-27-2006 03:04 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
[ QUOTE ]
If you can rely on villain to put in 4+ BB postflop with a 1 pair hand then go ahead and call, but I don't think this is anywhere near true for most decent players.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]
4BB should be pretty standard action for one pair considering where the guy raised. the strongest one pairs should easily average around 5BB.

calling down a flop c/r is 3BB. 3betting the flop and calling down a cap is 4, calling the flop and popping the turn is 5. raising the turn after a flop cap is 6.

gehrig 08-27-2006 03:13 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
also FWIW:

Board: 2s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 09.5942 % 09.39% 00.20% { 77+, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ } (i played around with his range a bit and it doesnt matter much)
Hand 2: 90.4058 % 90.20% 00.20% { 2c2d }

i would guess that maybe 35% of the time the set loses its on four flush/straight boards, so the RIO arent so bad in those cases

milesdyson 08-27-2006 03:41 PM

Re: BLIND QUESTION -- strongest hand you will fold
 
yeah, pocket pairs have to be played against such a good range. i'd much rather have 22 in the bb against a good utg raiser than against a good button opener


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