A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

this one got different responses from death donkey, justin a, gonores, and ggbman as to the right play. also it's a little funny for reasons youll soon see:

i am dealt Ad8d in the bb in my first hand in a 300-600 7 handed game at bellagio. utg, KMS from commerce who has been playing bellagio every day all summer, raises. everyone calls including me. family pot.

the flop is Kd4d4s. the sb bets out, i raise (?), kms cold calls two, everyone else folds (!), sb calls.

the turn is Jh. checked around.

the river is 3d. sb checks, i bet, kms raises, sb folds, i ....... ?

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

seems like an easy 3bet. call a 4bet i think, but he really has no hands you lose to.

he probably has QJdd, QTdd, or JTdd. nothing else makes sense.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

I'm 3 betting here... what can we lose to, 44 or KK that wanted someone 2 get a free card 2 catch a flush?... doesn't make any sense.... I agree w/ baronzeus 100%

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

mike -

I disagree with the others so far. You should just call the river raise.

I think that if he flops a flushdraw, he'll threebet to put pressure on a late position King (I mean, is KJ gonna wanna call 3 cold on that flop???), put pressure on the SB, and to potentially take a free card. With two others already expressing interest in the pot (the SB and you), threebetting a flushdraw is nice, especially if it gets KMS the button.

Then, if he only cold-called the flop with a flushdraw, he'd also potentially bet the turn when it's checked to him. Now he'd most certainly have a pair with his flushdraw or an OESD with his flush draw.

Thus, the chance that he both 1) smoothcalled the flop and 2) checked the turn is small.

Now, throw in the fact that 7 people saw the flop. It seems quasi likely (this is shady reasoning, but likely has some merit) that SOMEBODY must have been dealt a king. I really think KMS has KK here.

Would he check the turn with Kings full? Perhaps. If you have a hand like 77 or something, you'd quite likely fold to a turn bet, and that would be disasterous for him. Obviously he's risking losing tons of potential profit if you have a 4, so I'm in no way saying that he's guaranteed to have KK.

If you threebet, do you fold to his 4-bet? Folding the nutflush on the river closing the action when getting 17:1 is tough to do. So, I'll assume that you won't make this fold. Thus you raising the river is only correct if you are ahead 2/3 of the time. I think you are ahead about 50% of the time.

Call.

Josh

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

Mike-

You said this was your first hand. You have no information on how people are playing and how the game is flowing. You have the nut flush and no table image yet. I believe that you should simply call his raise on the river with the intention to advertise to the table your hand no matter if it won or not. By doing this you might establish a certain "Cautious" image. With your style of play and you aggressiveness, other players at the table might get the idea that you wont re-raise without the absolute nuts and might induce some folds on the turn or river until they understand your a raging maniac =)

-MrGatorade

(And against me in our 1-2 games you would 8 bet me because I suck) =)

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

100% agree to dollaz! This is a no brainer 3 bet in every game of the whole world. Does anybody think Villain checks behind a full house or quads on the turn? If he does, he plays poor, gets on more bet with line in this special hand against us Hero and misses much value in all other situations!

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

I think a closer river decision would be you 3-bet, he 4-bets, Hero ???. A turn check for a hand that beats you makes no sense.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

Three bets!

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

[ QUOTE ]

Thus you raising the river is only correct if you are ahead 2/3 of the time. I think you are ahead about 50% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Come on. There is a 50% chance that KMS has KK or 44 (or JJ & 33)? Checking those behind on the turn would be so terrible. Mike is ahead here an overwhelming majority of the time.

I would rather 5-bet his 4-bet than not 3-bet here.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

mike that was really well thought out, good post.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

Am I the only one who hates the flop raise? I'd way rather build a huge pot here than possibly maybe clean up outs.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

Wouldn't he be likely to bet the turn, when checked to, with Qd-Jd, Qd-Td, or Jd-Td? Wouldn't he also have possibly 3-bet the flop with a flush draw? Also, from his standpoint, isn't Mike's most likely hand a flush? And if he's the type of player who would check behind on the turn despite improving, is he likely to raise the river without the nut flush?

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who hates the flop raise? I'd way rather build a huge pot here than possibly maybe clean up outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think the flop raise is the best part of the hand.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wouldn't he be likely to bet the turn, when checked to, with Qd-Jd, Qd-Td, or Jd-Td? Wouldn't he also have possibly 3-bet the flop with a flush draw? Also, from his standpoint, isn't Mike's most likely hand a flush? And if he's the type of player who would check behind on the turn despite improving, is he likely to raise the river without the nut flush?

[/ QUOTE ]


well, we have to pick either one or the other. if he's betting the turn with QTdd or JTdd or QJdd, then he's CERTAINLY betting the turn with a set, king, trips, overpair, whatever he has. and if he is good enough to 3bet the flop with a flush draw, he CERTAINLY doesnt check behind the turn with any of the hands that we lose to.


i think mike's line can be a lot of things. given all the action, mike could just be wussing out with a king on the turn after getting all that action. and yes, i agree that its odd for him to raise the river here, but a lot of players think "OOH FLUSH RAISE" rather than "I wonder what my opponent is betting with?"

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

with A8s, bet/3-bet/call is the correct river line. always.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

"if he's betting the turn with QTdd or JTdd or QJdd, then he's CERTAINLY betting the turn with a set, king, trips, overpair, whatever he has."

I'm not so certain. I know lots of guys who get "tricky" with a monster, but who push smaller hands.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

You really need to tell us about this KMS character. Is he a thinking player? There are times when slowplaying will be the way to go but I really doubt a thinking player checks a boat when it is so likely that a flush draw is out there and will so willingly put in a turn bet but not a river bet when missing.

Therefore, my opinion is that if he is not good I just call. If he is pretty solid I think it has to be a 3 bet.

Mr. Gatorade: your thinking about metagame is admirable but getting an extra BB here will be too important to pass up. Weak tight mike l will just have to play a few orbits and then unleash out of control mike l to have the same effect and more profit.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

Mike,

I don't post in this forum often but I do lurk quite a bit and am familiar with your play from previous posts. Because of this I think MrGatorade is 100% correct, even though it might not be the most +EV thing to do on this particular hand.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

mike,

on the flop you're getting 15:1 and will be laying 8.5:1 against hands behind you if you raise. you wont be folding out any Ks and any pairs that would come along for one (and not raise) will likely fold to a turn raise when they would have folded on the flop shoudl you choose that line.

the pot is big and you have a large number of outs. you would like to grow this pot on the flop since K4 and 44 are very unlikely combinatorically and KK is the only real hand that has you in significant trouble and only 1 person is likely to have that hand. if you call and somebody raises behind you and it's called to you id 3 bet now b/c of the chances you are dealing with disbelieving flop peelers who may now feel stuck.

while you have likely increased the chances of your being in some danger, i dont think that warrents not 3betting when it comes back for a raise.

further, by just calling this flop and showing down the hand, the better players in the game will be less likely to think you do what you do (go mad bets in position w/ draws) since you didn't even put in 2 bets on a favorable nut flush draw w/ overcard draw 7 ways.

the real danger w/ just calling though is letting a weaker hand come in that would have folded for 2 but now pairs up and sees a showdown. but that is a mighty big parlay and i think the benefits to just calling this flop outweigh the costs.

on the turn if the sb bets again NOW you should raise. this looks like a very strong hand and you are now quite a bit more likely to fold out a K than the almost nil chance of that happeneing on the flop. you've managed to lay way worse odds given the bet size increase and have misguided the table as to your holding.

in a 3/6 lineup, id say the flop call turn raise line is probably best.

Barron

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

i like the idea of call-3 betting the flop normally, but since the pot is already huge and getting a better A out is so easy to do in this particular case/flop, i still like my flop raise as the best line.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

[ QUOTE ]
i like the idea of call-3 betting the flop normally, but since the pot is already huge and getting a better A out is so easy to do in this particular case/flop, i still like my flop raise as the best line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the same thing at first, but then I rethought it, and realized that there's really no such thing as a better ace.

See, since there is a small pair on the board and a King, if an ace comes, you'll chop against a AJ type of hand. So, it's not the ace that you want to fold, its the hands like QJs that decide to take one off with a backdoor flush draw or something. THOSE are the hands you want to fold.

I think.

Josh

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

yeah, i like the flop line he suggested, but the turn raise is kind of a spew, and there is reasonably no way you can profitably call a 3-bet on the turn even if it happens 1 out of 5 times.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

I dunno who KMS is but you should 3-bet unless you know something special about them. If KMS had a boat not betting the turn is retarded because the flush draws will fold on the river if they miss but will call a turn bet. It's not like checking the turn with a boat is trapping anybody. Also KMS misses out on a lot of action if the SB or you show up with a 4 in their hand by not getting to bet-3-bet the turn if KMS has a boat. So, unless there is something about KMS I don't know, KMS called two cold on the flop with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and got there on the river. Since you were the BB KMS thinks you probably have a lower flush, since you would call with any two suited after the preflop action. I think you are ahead about 90% of the time here.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

The problem with your reasoning about 3-betting is that by the time it is two cold back to him on the flop, he has to think that somebody has at least a K, so there is no point in 3-betting to knock out the king on the flop behind him when there is probably a king that already raised in front of him, especially if KMS has a hand like J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] which, from the turn/flop/river action, he probably has.

He would have to think the SB doesn't have a K or a 4 and that mike raised without a K or a 4 on the flop and that someone behind him would fold a K to 3 cold and that nobody behind him has a 4 to make a 3-bet right. That is a pretty incredible parlay.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

"See, since there is a small pair on the board and a King, if an ace comes, you'll chop against a AJ type of hand."

wow im dumb.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i like the idea of call-3 betting the flop normally, but since the pot is already huge and getting a better A out is so easy to do in this particular case/flop, i still like my flop raise as the best line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the same thing at first, but then I rethought it, and realized that there's really no such thing as a better ace.

See, since there is a small pair on the board and a King, if an ace comes, you'll chop against a AJ type of hand. So, it's not the ace that you want to fold, its the hands like QJs that decide to take one off with a backdoor flush draw or something. THOSE are the hands you want to fold.

I think.

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an excellent point Josh but I think getting out other "better" aces that chop the pot is still worthwhile. This pot is big and I want it all if an ace slides off on the turn.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

If I had KK I'd smooth call the flop and bet the turn when it's checked to me, fully expecting at least one call or maybe a c/r. What hands bet/raise that flop in a pot that big and then fold to a single turn bet there? He doesn't have KK.

What about JJ? Same thing. I'd bet the turn. Doesn't have JJ.

So what does he have? I don't know. You give no read of him but say but he's from Commerce and been playing here every day. He raised UTG and it's a family pot. Wow. 33-44? Maybe.

Verdict. Only 3 bet if you'll fold to a 4th bet which, in limit poker, is catastrphofic if you're wrong. So I'd call and be glad I caught, someone raised it for me and it held up. Or glad I saved 2 BB's.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

<drool>There is a 3/6 game with 7 to the flop for 2 bets where we are debating whether to clean up outs because people may call with just an Ace on a K44 flop?</drool>

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

[ QUOTE ]
on the turn if the sb bets again NOW you should raise. this looks like a very strong hand and you are now quite a bit more likely to fold out a K than the almost nil chance of that happeneing on the flop. you've managed to lay way worse odds given the bet size increase and have misguided the table as to your holding.

in a 3/6 lineup, id say the flop call turn raise line is probably best.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have been pondering this one a bit. Not knowing something about the SB and KLM is a problem, but if we are basically flying without reads we have a few assumptions we can make. First, if mike just calls the flop the hand will play in a completely different manner. We will usually have an idea about the strength of KLM's hand since he will have a perfect chance to raise and protect his hand with a decent king or AA. Obviously his range will be wider than that.

Now back to those assumptions. Players at this limit generally bet and raise until they are pretty sure they are beat and then they call (see mike, I was listening). Players at this limit also have the general idea that making big laydownws in limit holdem is not the way to get rich. Given these assumptions, I think your advice of raising the turn is very bad. You are basically advocating putting money in on the turn when our equity has changed for the worse (assuming we don't hit our flush) and hiding behind fold equity as the excuse. I think that folding out a king in a pot that will possibly be the biggest multiway extravaganza of the evening happens close to never. In addition, if the SB has trips and KLM folds the turn, we get 3 balled every time and hate ourselves passionately while we draw.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

very well thought out, im impressed.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

Actually, it is "more important" for Mike to force out a hand such as 6s6h than AsJc. While the AJ has two outs to chop the pot, the 6s6h has one out that deprives Mike from the entire pot and another card that kills Mike's 30% draw to beat kings up or worse on the river.

EDIT: But FWIW, I don't like Mike's flop raise. This pot IS going to a showdown, and Mike's pot winning equity by the time he acts to SB's lead bet on the flop figures to be slightly less than 30% in between the chances of drawing dead, AA/AK killing the ace out and to a smaller degree getting there while someone makes a boat and 4-outer resucks/killer turns for a hand such as KQ.

I just don't think there are enough reasons, particularly significant ones, for raising a dog hand hand here to warrant doing just that.

lars

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

3bet and call

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

i was searching and stumbled across this one. i was interested at the time and still am.

results, mike?

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

i posted the results somewhere in the thread i thought. KMS (utg) had Qd9d for rivered frush and i just called the river and i still stand by that play because he is normally weak tight.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

"with A8s, bet/3-bet/call is the correct river line."

having played with KMS now you realise that's not true right?

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

[ QUOTE ]
"with A8s, bet/3-bet/call is the correct river line."

having played with KMS now you realise that's not true right?

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not sure what i was thinking when i wrote that. i must have misread the action or something.

i had played with KMS when i replied to this (not sure if i knew his name though), and my impression was that he was kinda LAG cuz he had run me over in a short 1/2 game when i wasn't catching anything. he might have just been making monsters, or he might have been on tilt.

anyway, calling a 4-bet on the river can't be correct, so it's between calling the raise and 3-bet/folding. i think calling is the play because the range of hands he can call a 3-bet with that you beat is really small.

the turn just makes it look like he has QdJd or something... would he ever check there with a boat?

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

im not sure but i think he might check the turn with a boat sometime.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

[ QUOTE ]
im not sure but i think he might check the turn with a boat sometime.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is insanity. I can only speak for myself and games I have played, but I have NEVER seen such a play ever ever ever made in my poker career (3 way pot, last to act on turn).

It is my opinion that not 3 betting the river is one of the worst plays ever agreed on by multiple good posters on this board.

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

"I can only speak for myself and games I have played, but I have NEVER seen such a play ever ever ever made in my poker career"

interesting. ive seen it several times.

dpr do you know kms?

Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
 

I've played 3/6 there, but dont' know kms...but since you describe him as tight-weak, isn't that precisely the guy you can confidently 3bet/fold to?