Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

In most of the developed world, fertility rates are incredibly low. Developed countries have a fertility rate of around 1.6 children per woman, which corresponds to negative population growth (we're going to ignore immigration since its a band aid).

The highest fertility rate is in the US, around 2.1 children/woman. Some of the lowest are in Europe and Canada:

Canada 1.7
France 1.6
UK 1.6
Germany 1.3
Italy 1.2
Spain 1.2

Now certain countries I can understand wanting less people. Japan, Hong Kong, and China for instance could use alot more space. But for North America and Europe there seems to be plenty of land and food.

In fact, it is the wealthier countries where the fertility rate is low. The third world can't have enough children it seems.

Is having a negative fertility rate, when you have ample resources, a cause for alarm?

Are our societies saying they don't want to continue?

Why don't people want to have kids?

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why don't people want to have kids?

[/ QUOTE ]

Kids are annoying and require much work, work that isn't paid for.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

Kids are beneficial in poor economies - they take care of you when you are older. You also need more to guarante some survive. In richer countries, people are more likely to be able to support themselves.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why don't people want to have kids?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think there are more people today in the wealthier countries who don't want kids. It's just that years ago, people had them whether they wanted them or not. Wealth, education, and women's equality are all factors.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

Ok, but without kids a society can't continue. Rich people die some day.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

Western society has chosen slow cultural suicide. The reasons are many and few. The many include birth control, selfishness, high taxes forcing women to work and some others. The few is simply the growth of secularism. Godless people tend to have a lot less kids.

If you ask the 'enlightened' European about the imminent death of his 2500 year old culture you get a shrug. They don't see a problem. An Islamic Europe is but a couple generations away. I don't see that as a positive move forward. Really, if you were asked to list the ten greatest contributions to the species from Islamic culture in the past 200 years it's not much of a list.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Western society has chosen slow cultural suicide. The reasons are many and few. The many include birth control, selfishness, high taxes forcing women to work and some others. The few is simply the growth of secularism. Godless people tend to have a lot less kids.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. Why can't we go back to the good ole' days where women knew their place and everyone lived by the bible.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, but without kids a society can't continue. Rich people die some day.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, but who cares?

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

Well, this is a politics forum. If a society is committing suicide, it's probably not a good social model.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

Surely dismissing imigration as the fix entirely negates any true reflection of how modern societies, economies and countries work.

Within 1 generation imigrants are fully integrated into the host nations society (speaking in broad terms).

This is why negative birth rates arent a problem as there are always imigrants willing to come and do the work the natives consider 'beneath' them and so the cycle continues.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

Your question is terribly flawed as Western society is in fact spreading all over the world, beyond just N America and W Europe. So the fact that NA and WE have neg growth rates does not mean western society has committed suicide when most of the world is becoming more and more like western society. Western society is not synonymous with native-born European/American population size.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

This seems like a good thing to me. Much better than mass starvation, plagues etc.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, this is a politics forum. If a society is committing suicide, it's probably not a good social model.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does "society committing suicide" mean? Too many brown people?

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Western society has chosen slow cultural suicide. The reasons are many and few. The many include birth control, selfishness, high taxes forcing women to work and some others. The few is simply the growth of secularism. Godless people tend to have a lot less kids.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. Why can't we go back to the good ole' days where women knew their place and everyone lived by the bible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry, but is that what you think will pass for debate? Sadly, after a public education in this century it's likely that's above average. Sad indeed.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Within 1 generation imigrants are fully integrated into the host nations society (speaking in broad terms).


[/ QUOTE ]

If I could believe that I'd change my opinion on the future 180 degrees. I don't believe it anymore. Multi-cultural poison is well spread. Assimilation is no longer the prefered choice.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Western society has chosen slow cultural suicide. The reasons are many and few. The many include birth control, selfishness, high taxes forcing women to work and some others. The few is simply the growth of secularism. Godless people tend to have a lot less kids.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. Why can't we go back to the good ole' days where women knew their place and everyone lived by the bible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry, but is that what you think will pass for debate? Sadly, after a public education in this century it's likely that's above average. Sad indeed.

[/ QUOTE ]

you make point: "rise in secularism and various women's rights issues (working, birth control) have created sitution where society is committing suicide."

i make retort: "things were much worse in societies in which these conditions did not exist."

yes, this is what constitutes debate.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Within 1 generation imigrants are fully integrated into the host nations society (speaking in broad terms).


[/ QUOTE ]

If I could believe that I'd change my opinion on the future 180 degrees. I don't believe it anymore. Multi-cultural poison is well spread. Assimilation is no longer the prefered choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you have any proof? 3rd Generation Latino Immigrants are 0% Spanish Primary Language. Almost every other statistic measured is in line with immigrants of previous generations. If you want to get rid of those WOPs too, that might be understandable.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

In the late 60s, early 70s the mantra was "Zero Population Growth", and at the time 2 children per family was seen as the optimal rate to prevent "overpopulation".

The fertiity rate in the USA has remained pretty steady in the 2.05 to 2.1 range over that time. However increases in longevity resulted in that being more than sufficient to replace deaths, and insufficient to keep the population from aging. The result, after average out the baby boom and echoes etc is a working population that will be unable to produce enough to support the needs of the total population.

Immigration is not a solution because the contribution to GNP of the average (legal) immigrant is far below the average for the same age domestic producer. Illegal immigration further exacerbates the problem with an overall zero contribution. (Its actually negative but we'll call it zero to avoid another illegal immigration hijack).

A good portion of the apparent shift of wealth toward the upper end is the natural result of those demographic changes...not some failing of capitalism, tax cuts for the wealthy and other political rallying cries.

Technology has filled the productivity gap so far, but I wonder where the next great leap is going to come from.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

In Norway the government has realized that we will not be able to sustain our society with Norwegian-born people. We will need a constant influx of immigrants just to keep the economy running (currently they speak about a 1% yearly rate). It is really no problem, there are plenty of dysfunctional countries who have the opposite problem, so we can keep on doing it this way for a long time to come.

About cultural suicide, it is a constructed problem. Almost nobody wants the society as it was 30 years ago, so the culture we lost during the last 30 years can not actually have been worth keeping. 30 years ago they looked with that perspective on 60 years ago. In 30 years time our current culture is going to be seen as inferior to the one that has developed then. It is impossible and unwanted to keep things constant.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

I don't understand why you are so concerned about GNP. GNP growth has been shown to contribute little to human well-being once a society reaches what I would call 'affluence', which most western countries reached by the 1950s-60s
.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What does "society committing suicide" mean? Too many brown people?

[/ QUOTE ] For once I agree with Tom. This ostensible problem is complete nonsense. 'society' by itself cannot feel love or pain or pleasure. It is human beings that we should be concenred about. While human beings are 'social beings' to some degree, and hence quality social relationships are important, the fact that the percentage of the population that is white is not increasing is not a problem.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is having a negative fertility rate, when you have ample resources, a cause for alarm?

[/ QUOTE ] Actually if everyone in the world consumed resources at the rate that people in the U.S. consume them, we would run out of many if not most of them.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

Well, let me posit it this way. If a societies entire social framework relies on a massive infusement of people from external sources is it sustainable. What happens if you ever run out of people who want to come?

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

This has nothing to do with society remaining constant. It is a matter not even having enough people to sustain a society. Any society that relies on a massive flow of immigrants to merely function, one has to ask, what happens when the immigrants stop comming?

Why immigration doesn\'t count
 

In the long run, what happens when people no longer want to immigrate?

A good parallel would be someone that is able to maintain a certain standard of living above his earnings by running up credit card bills, but eventually the credit card companies stop extending him credit.

Does western society rely on immigrants to function? If so, what happens if they supply of immigrants ever dies down?

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why you are so concerned about GNP. GNP growth has been shown to contribute little to human well-being once a society reaches what I would call 'affluence', which most western countries reached by the 1950s-60s
.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it is one of the few regularly kept statistics available. While small changes "once a society reaches affluence" may not contribute much to well being, it is still the best country to country comparison available. I also suspect that a large increase or reduction in per capita GNP would indeed impact well being.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, let me posit it this way. If a societies entire social framework relies on a massive infusement of people from external sources is it sustainable. What happens if you ever run out of people who want to come?

[/ QUOTE ]

Then we've got a problem [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. Just don't think it will be a practical problem for long to come, but if you use the term self sustaining as meaning no immigration (as I should have realized 1st time [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]), I guess our society is not self sustaining. Not at all, actually. 6-7 years ago several sectors of society really stopped functioning due to lack of labor (I got mail just twice or so a week, sometimes garbage was not taken etc.), now we are managing to avoid it by being liberal towards the new EU-countries. We would of course survive without it, but would have to lower our ambitions and thus not "sustain".

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Because it is one of the few regularly kept statistics available.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suppose that is why it is still used, even though it doesn't tell us much about the quality of life in different affluent societies.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
6-7 years ago several sectors of society really stopped functioning due to lack of labor (I got mail just twice or so a week, sometimes garbage was not taken etc.), now we are managing to avoid it by being liberal towards the new EU-countries.

[/ QUOTE ] You could also solve this by rearranging the economy to reflect the current population.

It is faulty reasoning to presume that less people=a less good economy, because, amongst other things, while productivity is likely to be less than it otherwise would be overall, productivity per person won't, and that is what we really care about.

100/10=1000/100. A lower population=less producers but also less consumers; lower supply and lower demand.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

I think that if you look at it from another perspective, certain countries are more able to put labor into effective use than others. U.S. vs Mexico is one example. The U.S. government and business life efficiency and capacity makes it able to provide decent jobs for Mexicans in addition to its own work force, whereas Mexico is unable to provide decent jobs for its own work force. Thus you get a stream of work migration north which expands the US economy. It thus operates at a higher level than it would without the immigration. Immigration thus has created a non self-sustainable economy. It gets a bit like saying "could our society sustain without oil?". Of course it couldn't, but if oil never existed we would have built the economy without oil and thus is would be sustainable without oil.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
6-7 years ago several sectors of society really stopped functioning due to lack of labor (I got mail just twice or so a week, sometimes garbage was not taken etc.), now we are managing to avoid it by being liberal towards the new EU-countries.

[/ QUOTE ] You could also solve this by rearranging the economy to reflect the current population.

It is faulty reasoning to presume that less people=a less good economy, because, amongst other things, while productivity is likely to be less than it otherwise would be overall, productivity per person won't, and that is what we really care about.

100/10=1000/100. A lower population=less producers but also less consumers; lower supply and lower demand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are somehow correct, but the percent of immigrants that are working (mainly due to age profile) is higher than the percent of Norwegians working, thus we would have lower amount of production/inhabitant, thus lower average living standard. So we get used to a "manipulated" demographics that is better than our "real" one.

EDIT: I guess that this shows that we aren't really solving the "problem", since the immigrants grow old, and we thus will need a constant influx to keep our "false" demographic curve.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Within 1 generation imigrants are fully integrated into the host nations society (speaking in broad terms).


[/ QUOTE ]

If I could believe that I'd change my opinion on the future 180 degrees. I don't believe it anymore. Multi-cultural poison is well spread. Assimilation is no longer the prefered choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you have any proof? 3rd Generation Latino Immigrants are 0% Spanish Primary Language. Almost every other statistic measured is in line with immigrants of previous generations. If you want to get rid of those WOPs too, that might be understandable.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you like France's chances with it's muslim immigrants? You see them all speaking French in one generation and fully integrating into French cluture? I don't.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you have any proof?

[/ QUOTE ] You need proof? You can vote in 20? different languages. Open your eyes.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are our societies saying they don't want to continue?


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. Rather, I think the societies that have been predominantly white up until now are saying they'd rather be predominantly non-white.

[ QUOTE ]
Why don't people want to have kids?

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, I think this question is best addressed to whites, since every other race is having plenty of kids.

As a white person who knows lots of white people who are reluctant to have kids, I'd say the most common reason is that society is pressuring us to lose our identity. We work hard to raise kids, then lose them to an identityless, economic-based society. A very bad deal if you're starting from a decent economic level. To cope with this, you either need to be very altruistic or have an environment with LOT of political incorrectness at home. The former is quite rare and the latter takes a lot of effort and vision to maintain without the kids revolting, thus the numbers in both camps are rather low.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are our societies saying they don't want to continue?


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. Rather, I think the societies that have been predominantly white up until now are saying they'd rather be predominantly non-white.

[/ QUOTE ]

Societies don't talk. But thanks for a very good illustration of how ridiculous this fallacy is.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

The economic standpoint is really a side note. I'm convinced immigration will continue for quite some time. I'm also convinced that an economy could adjust to more old people by having them work longer. In short, the economy will always adjust.

I am more interested from the standpoint that failing to reproduce seems like a cultural failure. We've got billions of years of evolution driving us to procreate, and we can't seem to fulfill this one purpose. Any animal that doesn't procreate is ultimately a failure, isn't it? It lost the evolutionary game.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Within 1 generation imigrants are fully integrated into the host nations society (speaking in broad terms).


[/ QUOTE ]

If I could believe that I'd change my opinion on the future 180 degrees. I don't believe it anymore. Multi-cultural poison is well spread. Assimilation is no longer the prefered choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you have any proof? 3rd Generation Latino Immigrants are 0% Spanish Primary Language. Almost every other statistic measured is in line with immigrants of previous generations. If you want to get rid of those WOPs too, that might be understandable.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you like France's chances with it's muslim immigrants? You see them all speaking French in one generation and fully integrating into French cluture? I don't.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you have any proof?

[/ QUOTE ] You need proof? You can vote in 20? different languages. Open your eyes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't follow the French situation as closely as the American situation. Your fear is no different than the fear from 80 years ago when we were flooded with undesirables from Italy, Greece, Eastern Europe, and the Orient. But keep letting Michael Savage fearmonger you some more. It is NO different than then.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

Procreation rates in Asian cultures aren't that high either, though I give them a break for being a little overpopulated. I don't think it's a racial thing. It seems to be much more related to income.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Within 1 generation imigrants are fully integrated into the host nations society (speaking in broad terms).


[/ QUOTE ]

If I could believe that I'd change my opinion on the future 180 degrees. I don't believe it anymore. Multi-cultural poison is well spread. Assimilation is no longer the prefered choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you have any proof? 3rd Generation Latino Immigrants are 0% Spanish Primary Language. Almost every other statistic measured is in line with immigrants of previous generations. If you want to get rid of those WOPs too, that might be understandable.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you like France's chances with it's muslim immigrants? You see them all speaking French in one generation and fully integrating into French cluture? I don't.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you have any proof?

[/ QUOTE ] You need proof? You can vote in 20? different languages. Open your eyes.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a falcity based on prejudice. French will be the national language of france for a long time to come. Just as English is the national language of England. The concept that america has one national language is falce from the fact that there are only immigrants in america. There happens to have been more English speaking immigrants in the past and so the predominant language spoken there is (an awefully screwed version of) English.

As imigrants move in from south america where portugese and spanish are the national languages the % breakdown on the languages spoken will shift.

You view this as purely a negative thing. In reality its merely a change in society which is reflective of all changes in all societies going back to the creation of humanity.

Change just happens a little faster nowadays.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You view this as purely a negative thing. In reality its merely a change in society which is reflective of all changes in all societies going back to the creation of humanity.

Change just happens a little faster nowadays.


[/ QUOTE ]

Change is OK so long as it is joined with forward progress. DO you expect an Islamic majority Europe under Sharia to equal the current level of accomplishment? If you do you are a fool.

Re: Fertility Rates: Is Western society self sustaining?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't follow the French situation as closely as the American situation. Your fear is no different than the fear from 80 years ago when we were flooded with undesirables from Italy, Greece, Eastern Europe, and the Orient. But keep letting Michael Savage fearmonger you some more. It is NO different than then.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry but things are lining up quite differently today. An immigrant's culture is now a treasured artifact under the fraud of multi-culturalism. 100 years ago it was sink or swim and to swim you assimilated. Not so today.

You can vote in most any language. Can you study local politics in all of them? I'd be very surprised. THis was not true 100 years ago.