Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

6th place gets a booby prize; top 5 get a seat in the Sunday $650 WSOP Super Sat.; so who made the bigger mistake, me or the BB villain? Did I make a mistake? Did he? Does the position of the short-stack make a difference?

The only real read here is that I've been very aggressive stealing from BB; he hasn't played back at me yet since we got to the FT.

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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

CO (t8415)
Button (t12053)
Hero (t9037)
BB (t22730)
UTG (t3180)
MP (t12085)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds</font>, Hero raises to t9012</font>, BB calls t8612.

Final Pot: t17749

BB turns over K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

Please tell me you won or else I will be sad.

I'm not an expert on Sat strategy, but I don't think your play was that bad. His of course sucks donkey balls.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

In a vacuum, your play is worse than his. He takes his expectation from 99.9% to 95% by calling. You take yours from 80-90% to some number way less than that by pushing.

I mean, of course he should fold, but when he's not gonna, your push really sucks.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

I should also note short-stack is a very good 2p2er.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
In a vacuum, your play is worse than his. He takes his expectation from 99.9% to 95% by calling. You take yours from 80-90% to some number way less than that by pushing.

I mean, of course he should fold, but when he's not gonna, your push really sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everything else equal, what if his stack is say, 13k instead of 22k? Clearly he's made a much bigger mistake if he calls. But have I still made a mistake?

Similarly, all else equal, what if short-stack is on my immediate right (and I know short-stack is a very good player)?

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

I was hoping adanthar would respond. Why do you feel he has anywhere near 80-90% expectation of winning here?

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was hoping adanthar would respond. Why do you feel he has anywhere near 80-90% expectation of winning here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about the percentages quoted, but there are two stacks shorter than Hero, the blinds aren't killer and the biggest stack at the table is in position to abuse the short stack should he choose to (not that he should necessarily, but he did just call with KJo here).

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

Oh [censored], misread UTG has having the CL instead of like 8xbb. Yeah, your shove is mucho not bueno. I thought you were like tied for last place.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

If you want to open push, wait until the blinds are higher and your stack is lower, so it isn't such an overbet. I guess you justcan't fold 88 period.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

The blinds aren't big enough to risk running into a hand or an idiot.
I might have raised 2xBB to take the blinds if he had junk and folded to a re raise.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

Flat call &amp; play position? I don't like the shove in a sat.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

I open fold this and don't think twice about it.

Look at the positioning of the table. UTG (you say is a good 2+2er, so what) is very short and has the big stack in the BB. He's going to have to steal and steal lots in order to make you uncomfortable about your stack. MP has a decent enough stack, and he obviously doesn't understand the satellite implications here so he very well could be pushing on UTG's BB as well.

There comes a point where you need to stop worrying about accumulating chips and wait. This is that point.

If you somehow become the shorty, then you can push/raise when necessary and work from there. But I think your play in 300% worse than his.

Brad

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

deleted by me

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
MP has a decent enough stack, and he obviously doesn't understand the satellite implications here so he very well could be pushing on UTG's BB as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Silly question but how do we know MP doesn't understand satellite implications well?

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
Flat call &amp; play position? I don't like the shove in a sat.

[/ QUOTE ]
Position? You are the SB.

I would fold and wait. I don't mind raising, open pushing, restealing with junkier hands in earlier position later on if necessary.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
The blinds aren't big enough to risk running into a hand or an idiot.
I might have raised 2xBB to take the blinds if he had junk and folded to a re raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really dislike making a 2x/3x/4xbb raise here (but I'm sure it's probably better than doing what I did; having said that, I'm almost positive a min-raise/3xbb raise is -tEV and -$EV here). I'd open fold before I'd min-raise, but I'm willing to hear how others feel.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

I'd just complete.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

If the BB was playing correctly, then the push is correct. There is no way he is calling you with any cards. In the real world, fold, complete, or miniraise.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
If the BB was playing correctly, then the push is correct. There is no way he is calling you with any cards. In the real world, fold, complete, or miniraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. BB has an incentive to allow you to lose the tournament. He has enough chips to make this happen with reasonable hands.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
If the BB was playing correctly, then the push is correct. There is no way he is calling you with any cards. In the real world, fold, complete, or miniraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Minraising just feels like a chip leak to me, particularly if he's not playing correctly. He's got a monster stack and he's almost certainly calling with any 2, which means I'm now building a pot out of position with a medicore hand that I'll almost certainly have to lay down on 85%+ of flops when I don't spike an 8 (and even on some when I do but the flop comes three suited and/or is highly coordinated, etc.).

If he's playing correctly, it doesn't seem to matter if I min-raise or push, right? And if he's playing incorrectly, minraising just allows him the chance to play perfectly.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If the BB was playing correctly, then the push is correct. There is no way he is calling you with any cards. In the real world, fold, complete, or miniraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. BB has an incentive to allow you to lose the tournament. He has enough chips to make this happen with reasonable hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wrong. Unless BB has it in for you, he can fold his way in and it is disadvantageous for him to call, probably even with AA.

However, people don't usually become chip leaders in satellites by playing correctly.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If the BB was playing correctly, then the push is correct. There is no way he is calling you with any cards. In the real world, fold, complete, or miniraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. BB has an incentive to allow you to lose the tournament. He has enough chips to make this happen with reasonable hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not quite sure I understand; if I push, BB is always making a mistake (i.e., -$EV play) by calling. I admit I made a much bigger -$EV play by pushing, but BB is still making a mistake.

What essentially happened is the BB and I handed a wheel-barrel full of $EV over to the 4 other players, particularly the short-stack. But I'm not sure what the BB's 'incentive' is here, though.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

If he's like 99% of sat players, his "incentive" is OOOH King Jack, SHINY!!!!

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he's like 99% of sat players, his "incentive" is OOOH King Jack, SHINY!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, this made me laugh.

In response to you Vaut, we I guess don't know (yet) that he doesn't understand satellite bubbles. We NOW know it because of the K-J call, so I guess we don't know this obviously.

And, to stress Betgos statement, calling with AA here would probably be a small mistake.

Brad

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
In response to you Vaut, we I guess don't know (yet) that he doesn't understand satellite bubbles. We NOW know it because of the K-J call, so I guess we don't know this obviously.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh -- the big blind (big stack) made the KJ call, not MP. I think that's where the confusion is coming from. I didn't really have a read on MP and he wasn't involved in this hand.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he's like 99% of sat players, his "incentive" is OOOH King Jack, SHINY!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

awesome. this explains bad plays so well in one sentence.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In response to you Vaut, we I guess don't know (yet) that he doesn't understand satellite bubbles. We NOW know it because of the K-J call, so I guess we don't know this obviously.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh -- the big blind (big stack) made the KJ call, not MP. I think that's where the confusion is coming from. I didn't really have a read on MP and he wasn't involved in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I'm befuddled today. I totally misread all of the positions.

Brad

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

your play seems overly aggressive given the read you've provided, yours, BB's and UTG's stacks and the current blinds.

If you think he's the type that will just sit back and fold his way into one of the top 5 spots, a 3-4X raise will likely fold 90% of what an all-in raise will. If he re-raises you, you're likely crushed &amp; if he calls you're probably in a coinflip/unpaired overcards situation you would be in anyways, except you have chips behind.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

I dont see how BB calling with AA, or even KK in this spot is a small mistake.

I mean if he loses he is down to 13.5K in chips and is still CL and can still most likely fold to a seat. If he wins the tournament if over and he can go eat dinner or go to sleep or what have you rather than grind it out for another hour or so.

I do agree the call with KJ o/s is pretty bad, as is the open push with 88. With such a stack and on the bubble I would be inclined to complete or make a small raise, depending on how BB has been playing throughout. THen I would hope to check it down with BB, or value bet if I hit a set. If BB shows aggression with overcards on the board I am gone.
I think there's a decent chance that with the stack you have you can sit back and wait and see what happens. Usually I find someone else makes a stupid move and the tournament ends. Either that or the shorty pushes and someone else makes a bad call...or a good call...and busts him.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

I don't think either of you made a mistake. I think a fair large raise would have given you the information you needed but I don't think you could have folded. The BB play was a little bit on the loose side but he had the chips and a chance to take someone out. I would prefer to make this type of call with at least an ace but still not terrible.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think either of you made a mistake. I think a fair large raise would have given you the information you needed

[/ QUOTE ]

Who cares about getting information, it's a satellite and there's a short stack that you aren't/if BB reraises your large raise all in and flips over 32o you should still fold. "Information" has nothing to do with it.

The right play (since, hey, you have a pair and aren't totally guaranteed a spot yet) is to make a small raise if the BB is correctly autofolding or to complete if he isn't. If he raises or pushes, fine, you lost an extra 200 chips. If not, you check it down or minbet or whatever and hopefully win. It's not really relevant as long as the fewest possible chips go in the pot.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

Easy fold IMO w/ the flat payout

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

This is a very read dependent hand.

Clearly you had a very bad read that villain would fold fold all but the nuts; in fact he called with next to nothing. These kind of calls are usually irritation calls, and villain is willing to make them because:
he is not familiar with satellite play and doesn't know better
he is not concerned with the value of the stakes
ego
it is getting late and he is willing to give up equity to bring this to and end.
etc.

I wouldn't worry about the other guys play and decide that it was entirely your fault. I'd make a standard SB raise to 3.5XBB because any player that's going to call a push is going to come over the top in the same situation and you can make a graceful fold. The cards don't matter, I think you need to have a good expectation on how villain will behave and have some wiggle room, otherwise it's probably a fold.

FWIW I bubbled a 10K Sat last week at the WSOP with 4 left paying 3 spots. I made a bad read and tried to push a player off the best hand when I was sure he should have folded. Conversely similar aggession paid off when I won my 2nd seat last week, but that was online.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

his mistake was more egregious; yours was more costly. that make sense?

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd make a standard SB raise to 3.5XBB because any player that's going to call a push is going to come over the top in the same situation and you can make a graceful fold. The cards don't matter

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm almost positive raising 2x/3x/4x BB is incorrect at this point, for the reasons I stated earlier. I would open fold before I did that.

The problem is, if he's playing incorrectly, making a standard raise here will let him play perfectly. I think anyone who is advocating making a min-raise/standard raise here is vastly underestimating how often an-incorrect-playing-BB calls a min-raise/3xBB raise, which is way too much to make it profitable.

If he's playing correctly, pushing is no different from min-raising.

Lastly, (and this is just a general comment to those in the thread who said this situation is read dependent), I stated my one read in the OP:

[ QUOTE ]
The only real read here is that I've been very aggressive stealing from BB; he hasn't played back at me yet since we got to the FT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Had BB shown any kind of feistiness, I would never make this play; in other words, my read was that he probably knew what he was doing. It turns out he didn't, and my read was wrong, but I was hoping we could factor in 'confidence in the read' into the discussion. As it turns out, there's probably not much room for discussion, since it's pretty clear I made a terrible play.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont see how BB calling with AA, or even KK in this spot is a small mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it's -$EV for him. He is guaranteed to win a seat now. Calling, even with AA, lowers his equity, even if only a small amount. Being the CL with 22k in this spot is vastly different from being the CL with 13k.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

both are pretty bad - i actually think your's is worse as he'll still make the $s if he loses. You lose youre done. this is truly a fold all but the top 3 hands imho

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

There is alot of play left in the game. SS has 8XBB and can seriously hurt another player. There is a wide range of hands you probably have to play here and I'd bring them all in for a standard raise. Can you really fold jj++? CL will fold many hands, call many hands and raise many hands.

Forget about the 88 and think about what hands you will play here and how you will play them, everyone's game is different. I'm probably playing 88 and leading many flops.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

I'd complete here and lead any flop for about 2/3 the pot and take it from there. Assuming that the BB is gonna fold any two is not an assumption you can make. In this spot, I'm probably gonna limp many hands I would normally open with in a regular tourney, and only probably raising QQ+ and AK. I'm not putting my chips at risk unless I feel like I have a huge edge in the hand...lets say atm I have a 75% chance of getting the seat...I want more of an advantage than that over the BB to play this aggressively. And yes, if I have anything but AA I'm folding if he comes over the top. Not because I think he has AA to make the play, but because my odds of winning the seat if I fold is greater than playing KK against Ax, or playing AK against a pp, etc.

Re: Who Made The Bigger Mistake? -- Stars $73+7 Bubble Play
 

an extra 200 chips? what kind of sense does limping make? It doesn't make sense the sentence before that you say make a small raise