Straight draw on the flop
 

Push? Fold? Fold pf? Both players seem solid, nothing out of line. Final two tables of $50 tournament. My stack is a little below average. 15 players left, I'm in 9th place.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t1000/t2000
Ante: t75
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t400
UTG+1: t86424
MP1: t88403
CO: t58903
Button: t19709
SB: t19478
Hero: t32031

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to t4000</font>, MP1 calls t4000 <font color="#aaaaaa">(pot was t4150)</font>, 3 folds, Hero calls t2000 <font color="#aaaaaa">(pot was t8150)</font>.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t12075, 3 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets t5800</font>, MP1 calls t5800,
<font color="#aaaaaa">(pot is t23675, hero has t28031)</font> <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

I'm torn on the preflop call. Odds are so tempting here, just hate calling with 16bb stack. We fold postflop we will have 14bb stack.

Postflop this is either shove or fold. Pot is already like 24k and you have 28k. I'm thinking a shove isn't that awful with possibly 10 outs and a reasonable amount of times you win the pot here (maybe 30-40%).

JCM you're usually pretty quick with EV calcs. Give a shove say 30% to win right here. 50%, 1 caller. 20%, 2 callers. Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

These decisions are the toughest for me. I'm more concerned about MP1's smooth call x2 than I am about the UTG+1 PF min raise and c-bet. Considering both are big stacks, I think I step aside and let them battle it out. You need a K for the str8, but it's not the nuts. Either villain could easily have the KJ already and the best you can hope for is a split. This would nullify a T (and 8)as an out too. You're late in the tourney, your table position stack-wise will be unchanged and you're still a 10+... retreat.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

i would shove here
then i would close my eyes and spike an 8 on the river.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

I would really lean towards the shove. I can't fold with that much in the pot and so many outs. I'd be really interested in that EV calc too though.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

I usually fold here.

If the pot was HU vs. EP raiser then:

You have 45% equity vs. AA maybe some fold equity
You have 30% equity vs. KK less fold equity than against AA
You have 25% equity vs. QQ No fold equity
You have 78% equity vs. AK + fold equity you don't want.
You have 45% equity vs. AQ + iffy fold equity (probably none)

Of course the UTG raiser may have 66 and is just taking a shot, but its an ugly board to take a shot at. His less than 1/2 pot bet does look a little weak.

Throw in a cold call that may be a made straight, but probably a draw+ pair that may hold 1 of your outs or splits with you, and your equity falls fast.

I jam HU, but the cold caller is probably eating too much of my equity fo get involved, because if you do it for the rest of your chips and you *probaby* not getting the right price.

I could be off a little, I'm freaking tired today.

**Looked at it again and I really want to jam with the weak-ass 1/2 pot bet and call, it just screams PLEASE RAISE ME OFF MY HAND from EP and RAISE ME OFF MY DRAW from cold caller, but dammit I still think I have to fold because when I'm wrong here its ugly and my stack is workable.

*****Looked at it again, and if you call and peel one getting 4-1 that leaves you with 12BB's and isn't terrible, but you have to get another bet to make the call right, and if you hit you may not get paid, might get split, or god forbid makes someone a higher straight.

Bleh....I fold, bleh. meh.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]

Bleh....I fold, bleh. meh.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts exactly.

I also fold preflop.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Give a shove say 30% to win right here. 50%, 1 caller. 20%, 2 callers. Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand.

[/ QUOTE ] I'll work something out, but if you really think they're folding 30% of the time, this is hugely profitable.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If these are the ranges of the deeped stacked pf raiser and caller 7-handed and near the final table bubble, then they are playing way too tight.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If these are the ranges of the deeped stacked pf raiser and caller 7-handed and near the final table bubble, then they are playing way too tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, this is just to give us a baseline.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]

If these are the ranges of the deeped stacked pf raiser and caller 7-handed and near the final table bubble, then they are playing way too tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, and the intially raise is a min-raise too.....hmmmmm.

Make me want to get involved a bit more.

I think a big part of the problem is that we have fold equity vs. the wrong hands when we push.

This is a tough spot.

What do you think of the 1/2 pot bet into 2 callers on this board? Weak or strong? I'm undecided...

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Give a shove say 30% to win right here. 50%, 1 caller. 20%, 2 callers. Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I decided that, against one caller, you are facing AQ. Against 2 callers, you are facing AQ and 99 (a set). Against AQ, you win 45% of the time. Against AQ and 99, you win 27% of the time.

30% of the time they fold: you end up with 51k
22.5% of the time, one caller and hero wins: 80k
27.5% of the time, one caller and hero loses: 0k
5.5% of the time, two callers and hero wins: 108k
14.5% of the time, two callers and hero loses: 0k

total: 39k
versus 28k if I fold.

Still, I think 30% fold is probably too generous.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
you are facing AQ and 99 (a set).

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have a set here, I jam it, not flat call, too many cards come on the turn that I really don't want to see, and I get called by the hands I want to call. (pair + draw, who are really only drawing to 8 outs that I have re-draws against, overpairs who put me on a draw etc)

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

What range of hands would villain smooth call a min raise and C-bet with? Villain would pop a set; quite possibly two pair. Would he smooth call a str8 draw or top pair...maybe top pair no kicker? Geez, it's a tough one.
I still think against two opponents, your "ten" outs are really compromised. If you're villain how do you play KJ?

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you're villain how do you play KJ?

[/ QUOTE ] Fold pf.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

nm

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're villain how do you play KJ?

[/ QUOTE ] Fold pf.

[/ QUOTE ]
hmphf....good point, that's what I would have done. I'm sooo confused. Excellent thought provoking post btw.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

Of course if MP1 doesnt have a set or 2pair, that begs the question, what could possibly be smooth calling the flop bet except for a made straight? A straight draw I guess, but even there the possibilities would be AJ, QJ, JJ, JT, J9, KQ. That's not the greatest group of hands against Hero's JT.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're villain how do you play KJ?

[/ QUOTE ] Fold pf.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are really going to fold KJ to a miniraise from the other big stack, in position with 44 BBs?

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're villain how do you play KJ?

[/ QUOTE ] Fold pf.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are really going to fold KJ to a miniraise from the other big stack, in position with 44 BBs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I'm also going to fold it if I am UTG+1 opening the pot. Both players were EP, with lots of players left to act, holding a hand that can be easily dominated.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're villain how do you play KJ?

[/ QUOTE ] Fold pf.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are really going to fold KJ to a miniraise from the other big stack, in position with 44 BBs?

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of the time, yes. Two Big Stacks at the table and he has played reasonable, this close to the final table. Why mix it up with the only player at the table that can devastate your stack with a tricky hand? I have no qualms about folding KJ preflop as Villain 2 and 5 more act behind me.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands would villain smooth call a min raise and C-bet with?

[/ QUOTE ]

Made straights J8s (mabye, little thin PF), KJs/o, or most probably a pair + draw QJ,JT,J9, maybe even JJ

A more donktacular opponents can widen the range, but that's probably good.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

I think that this hand shows the dangers of JT. I remember early on in my poker reading I made the mistake of reading Helmuth's book and I seem to remember how he liked JT as being a stealty hand. I also remember the fact that all straights will contain either a 5 or a T (and wouldn't you want the straight with the T!)

The problem is that the the cards you need to hit in order to make your hand , will all too often complete your opponents hand. Or atleast give him a draw that if he hits will likely beat you.

ie: you have JT he has KQ flop comes JT2 giving you two pair but your opponent an open ended straight draw.

or the reverse you have JT the flop comes AQ9 you have the open ended straight draw but its just a draw. your oppone nts likely holdings (since they were a raiser and you were the caller) would include all the possible card you would hate for him to have. ie: AA-99, AK-A9 etc. The turn could bring a K completing your straight but could also be completing the straight of your opponent. woop dee doo--chopped pot.

I didn't want to get into hypothetical hands but yours is a reminder that I never like calling a raise with JT, 'cause when i do, i'm asking for trouble.

Dolye Brunson exlpains this much better than I could in Supersystem (I or II) when he discussed why he prefers 76 over JT.

For what it is worth, I would have folded PF.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

Jesus, Noah continues to battle betgo for the title of biggest nit.

The only thing grosser than folding this on the flop is folding this preflop.

Nath, can you please back me up here? k thx

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Jesus, Noah continues to battle betgo for the title of biggest nit.

The only thing grosser than folding this on the flop is folding this preflop.

Nath, can you please back me up here? k thx

[/ QUOTE ]

ZOMG ARRRRRRRRR INNNNNNNNNNNNN

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

Pleasure doing business with you.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Push? Fold? Fold pf? Both players seem solid, nothing out of line. Final two tables of $50 tournament. My stack is a little below average. 15 players left, I'm in 9th place.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t1000/t2000
Ante: t75
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t400
UTG+1: t86424
MP1: t88403
CO: t58903
Button: t19709
SB: t19478
Hero: t32031

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to t4000</font>, MP1 calls t4000 <font color="#aaaaaa">(pot was t4150)</font>, 3 folds, Hero calls t2000 <font color="#aaaaaa">(pot was t8150)</font>.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t12075, 3 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets t5800</font>, MP1 calls t5800,
<font color="#aaaaaa">(pot is t23675, hero has t28031)</font> <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm amazed that anyone folds here pre-flop, what with a min-raise, a smooth call and the odds we're being laid.

Can we also presume that neither of the villains are playing KJ here? I would be working on that assumption.

That's the easy part. OR has to c-bet here, and bets a set bigger, I think. I don't like the smooth call from MP. He must have connected with the flop to some degree. If we push, I assume that UTG+1 folds and that, closing the action, MP is priced in for a call. The only hand I can see him having here that we are beating is AJ, so I fold.

This is having given it more thought than I normally would and without reads. If I thought there was any chance that MP could ignore the odds he's getting laid and the chance to eliminate a shorter stack, I might push. In fact, I probably think: "pair and OESD: it doesn't get any better than this" and push.

PS: I'm not sure why this is all in red [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

I'd expect MP to have AJ/T9/KJ/KT/AT here the majority of the time.

And I'm not discounting KJ from his range, especially if he's an average 3R player.

Still push this all day, every day.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

Maybe I'm getting my threads confused: isn't this final two tables of a $50 buy in? If so, while anything is possible, I wouldn't be assigning KJ an equal weight in my range, nor K10, with the other hands that you mention.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

My bad, was thrown off by the huge stacks.

Yeah, this is AJ/T9/AT like a ton.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

I'd shove here. The call preflop is standard for me. I would never call with kjo/kjs in MP1 against the other big stack. Besides that UTG+1 is probably folding a lot here because he's affraid of the other big stack. The calling of the other big stack doesn't look dat dangerous to me. On this board, when i hit i'd always raise because a lot of turn cards can make me question how good my hand is, so if he really hit he'll probably try to shut the pot down.
Your stack is fine to make this move.So push

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd shove here. The call preflop is standard for me. I would never call with kjo/kjs in MP1 against the other big stack. Besides that UTG+1 is probably folding a lot here because he's affraid of the other big stack. The calling of the other big stack doesn't look dat dangerous to me. On this board, when i hit i'd always raise because a lot of turn cards can make me question how good my hand is, so if he really hit he'll probably try to shut the pot down.
Your stack is fine to make this move.So push

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying you are wrong but I question the shove because:

1. Surely we have no FE here? What can MP possibly flat call twice here, the second time on a nasty board with action behind, but not call a push with from a much smaller stack getting 2:1?

2. If he does call, what are we ahead of?

I need to slow down and think when I play. I probably just push this because of my stack size etc. but I think a lot of my outs are outs to a split pot and I don't like the answers to these questions.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

I agree it's a tough spot but i do think you have FE. My calling range(if i were MP1)towards UTG+1 is pretty big, big implied odds, it feels like his last attempt to take the pot. He'll probably check on the turn and I could take the pot, so two flat calls from MP1 don't mean that much to me. I think a lot of players with a big stack are just waiting for the FT and are not waiting to play big pots. This is also a reason why I think a push will probably work. Sure they've invested in the pot but they're still both healthy, with their stacks they can pick easier spots to take down pots, picking up blinds, resteals etc.. This board looks really scary from their point of view, besides that you check-raised with two players to come. Losing to your push would definately hurt them. In this situation your hand is perfect. If you get called you've got outs, but you want them to fold now and I think there's a big chance they will.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm torn on the preflop call. Odds are so tempting here, just hate calling with 16bb stack. We fold postflop we will have 14bb stack.

Postflop this is either shove or fold. Pot is already like 24k and you have 28k. I'm thinking a shove isn't that awful with possibly 10 outs and a reasonable amount of times you win the pot here (maybe 30-40%).

JCM you're usually pretty quick with EV calcs. Give a shove say 30% to win right here. 50%, 1 caller. 20%, 2 callers. Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I tweaked this some. shove, 25% to win right here. 55%, one caller. 20%, 2 callers. Initial pf raiser top 25% and pf caller top 15% hand.

Converter seems to be screwed up as far as pot size. 4k + 4k + 4k + 1k + 525 = 13,525 before flop.

25% of the time we win 13,525 by shoving.

55% of the time we are against a top 15%:

128,700 games 0.047 secs 2,738,297 games/sec

Board: Th Qd 9c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.4254 % 55.25% 02.18% { JcTs }
Hand 2: 42.5746 % 40.40% 02.18% { 55+, A8s+, KTs, A9o+, KJo+ }

20% of the time we are against a top 25% and a top 15% hand:

20,541,444 games 9.265 secs 2,217,101 games/sec

Board: Th Qd 9c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.8260 % 37.79% 03.04% { JcTs }
Hand 2: 33.6319 % 31.26% 02.38% { 55+, A8s+, KTs, A9o+, KJo+ }
Hand 3: 25.5421 % 23.12% 02.42% { 44+, A3s+, K8s, QTs+, A7o+, K9o+, QJo }

That would give us:

.25%(13,525) + .55(.57(75,327) + .43(-27,956)) + .20(.40(97,393) + .60(-27,956)) =

3,381 + .55(42,936 - 12,021) + .20(38,957 - 16,733) =

3,381 + 17,003 + 4,444 = 24,828

So, shoving here is HUGELY +EV.
Notice that with 0,1 or 2 callers each has a positive expectation, so that with all the dead money in the pot, the only way any # of callers would have a negative expectation would be if we narrowed their ranges down to hands that only are ahead of us. A shove here has a very profitable expectation.


If somebody doesn't mind checking behind, I would appreciate it. Thanks.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]

Okay, I tweaked this some. shove, 25% to win right here. 55%, one caller. 20%, 2 callers. Initial pf raiser top 25% and pf caller top 15% hand.

Converter seems to be screwed up as far as pot size. 4k + 4k + 4k + 1k + 525 = 13,525 before flop.

25% of the time we win 13,525 by shoving.

55% of the time we are against a top 15%:

128,700 games 0.047 secs 2,738,297 games/sec

Board: Th Qd 9c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.4254 % 55.25% 02.18% { JcTs }
Hand 2: 42.5746 % 40.40% 02.18% { 55+, A8s+, KTs, A9o+, KJo+ }

20% of the time we are against a top 25% and a top 15% hand:

20,541,444 games 9.265 secs 2,217,101 games/sec

Board: Th Qd 9c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.8260 % 37.79% 03.04% { JcTs }
Hand 2: 33.6319 % 31.26% 02.38% { 55+, A8s+, KTs, A9o+, KJo+ }
Hand 3: 25.5421 % 23.12% 02.42% { 44+, A3s+, K8s, QTs+, A7o+, K9o+, QJo }

That would give us:

.25%(13,525) + .55(.57(75,327) + .43(-27,956)) + .20(.40(97,393) + .60(-27,956)) =

3,381 + .55(42,936 - 12,021) + .20(38,957 - 16,733) =

3,381 + 17,003 + 4,444 = 24,828

So, shoving here is HUGELY +EV.
Notice that with 0,1 or 2 callers each has a positive expectation, so that with all the dead money in the pot, the only way any # of callers would have a negative expectation would be if we narrowed their ranges down to hands that only are ahead of us. A shove here has a very profitable expectation.


If somebody doesn't mind checking behind, I would appreciate it. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ] I think the math is probably good, but I just can't agree with these assumptions. I think 25% folding is probably a bit high, but may be all right. But, if we are called by one caller, we are not going to win 57% of the time. No way. And if we get called by 2 callers, we are not going to win 37% of the time. If we get called, we are going to be a dog. But it still might be +cEV.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

m of 3, almost assuredly behind on if not both, minimal fold equity - even hitting draw may leave you behind with no chance

look for a better place - fold in a heartbeat

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
m of 3, almost assuredly behind on if not both, minimal fold equity - even hitting draw may leave you behind with no chance

look for a better place - fold in a heartbeat

[/ QUOTE ] My M will be about 8 if I fold. If I had an M of 3, I would be calling this all day, [censored] FE.

Re: Straight draw on the flop
 

sorry - obv its an m of 8 - but i do fold