Wat do do with A10s here?
 

Hi,

I played in a PokerStars 20% pay out tournament last night. Started with around 1600 and paid out at around 300. The difference between 300th place and 30th place was not very much.

We are down to 37 and I have an average stack of T64,000. I am in about 16th place at this point. I haven't been played a hand in two orbitz when I pick up A10s in the BB. A new player who has been at the table for maybe one orbit opens in MP for T12,000. The blinds are 2000-4000. He has over T100,000 and is in the top 5.

I really wasn't sure what to do here. I went through different plays, but could not determine what was optimal. I wasn't sure if I had the best hand here, but calling out of position didn't look like a good idea. Is re-raising all in a good play here, or is re-raising to say 36k and moving in on the flop a better play? Does anyone advocate folding? Thoughts are appreciated. Thanks.

Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
 

If you don't like playing the hand or you're not sure what your gameplan is, just fold it. You still have a few hands to see. It's a trouble hand and you're out of position.

Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
 

Simple answer - fold

Complex answer - fold 60%, All in 40% of the time, being read dependant (as he is new to the table and you have no read, this is taken out of the equation)

I hate the reraise idea, as you will be pot committed anyway, so you may as well push (if this is your preference)

By folding you will still have over 10 BB. You don't need to get involved in this hand, IMO.

Jon

Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
 

Without a read on this player folding would not be a bad play. You have plenty of chips and there is no need risking it with AT OOP. You may make a call and see what he does on the flop, but most of the time you will just be throwing money away calling here. The only time I would make a play is if you know the player to be very aggressive, but able to fold to pressure. I would then come back over the top of him preflop.

Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
 

I would fold 70%-80% of the time in this position, and the rest of the time, call then push on the flop. I'm not sure ATs is the hand I want to put my tournament life on so I would be more likely to wait and be the first one in the pot.

Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
 

This is too speculative a holding. Dump the hand and make a play when you get a pair or AK, AQ later and he pulls the same raise. You are NOT in panic mode yet.

Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hi,

I played in a PokerStars 20% pay out tournament last night. Started with around 1600 and paid out at around 300. The difference between 300th place and 30th place was not very much.

We are down to 37 and I have an average stack of T64,000. I am in about 16th place at this point. I haven't been played a hand in two orbitz when I pick up A10s in the BB. A new player who has been at the table for maybe one orbit opens in MP for T12,000. The blinds are 2000-4000. He has over T100,000 and is in the top 5.

I really wasn't sure what to do here. I went through different plays, but could not determine what was optimal. I wasn't sure if I had the best hand here, but calling out of position didn't look like a good idea. Is re-raising all in a good play here, or is re-raising to say 36k and moving in on the flop a better play? Does anyone advocate folding? Thoughts are appreciated. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just fold.

Don't get involved w/ someone who could bust you with an inferior (though albeit barely) holding. Calling committs 20% of your stack, that's a lot. If you absolutly had to play this, I'd be pushing b/c you're OOP w/ a hand you're probbaly hoping for a flip w/,

I'm pushing TT-AA and AQ/AK here.

Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hi,

I played in a PokerStars 20% pay out tournament last night. Started with around 1600 and paid out at around 300. The difference between 300th place and 30th place was not very much.

We are down to 37 and I have an average stack of T64,000. I am in about 16th place at this point. I haven't been played a hand in two orbitz when I pick up A10s in the BB. A new player who has been at the table for maybe one orbit opens in MP for T12,000. The blinds are 2000-4000. He has over T100,000 and is in the top 5.

I really wasn't sure what to do here. I went through different plays, but could not determine what was optimal. I wasn't sure if I had the best hand here, but calling out of position didn't look like a good idea. Is re-raising all in a good play here, or is re-raising to say 36k and moving in on the flop a better play? Does anyone advocate folding? Thoughts are appreciated. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is definitely either push or fold.

The reason i say this is that we have an M of 8 and if we call and chuck it after the flop then we have an M of 6.5 (still playable, but not as manageable).

I would fold this simply because I like ATs a lot better when i am the open raiser. Here i don't want to push because ATs is not that good. Now if i have a read that he's stealing (but alas, he's only there for one orbit), i would push. This is fold and look for better opportunities.

Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
 

I am the only one who says push. This a great resteal/semibluff opportunity.

Unless he has aces, at worst you are a 7-3 dog with pot odds. You are not necessarily dominated if called. He could easily call with KQ, 99, A9, or something. You should have excellent FE. A big stack could easily be making loose raises in the minibubble.

You pick up 21K if he folds. You lose an average of about 18K if he calls and you are dominated. If he calls and you win, you will have 140K and probably be in third place or something.

Plus I don't like people raising my BB. If I bust out defending with ATs so be it.

You have a perfect stack size for a resteal and villain is a big stack raising on the minibubble. This is a good restealing situation.

Incidently, ATs is strong but could be dominated. I am probably pushing here with any restealing hand, any pp, suited connector/gapper, two broadway cards, etc.

Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is too speculative a holding. Dump the hand and make a play when you get a pair or AK, AQ later and he pulls the same raise. You are NOT in panic mode yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont know for sure of how I would play it. But if this is your range to call, players will be killing each other for the right to raise your blind.

Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
 

If you give him a tightish calling range of 77+, AJ+. You need him to fold about 50% of the time here to make a push correct.

Assuming this is never a straight steal, you would need him to be raising a range like: A9+, KT+, 44+ to make a push correct. Since we have to add in at least 10% pure bluffs here. I am certain a push is better than a fold. I would be interested to here what others thought about other lines than might be better than a push. I could see calling and leading the flop being valid here as well.

***I forgot about antes, you need him to fold even less than 50% of the time for a push to be profitable. Plus this can help keep people off your blinds in the future, which is always nice.

Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you give him a tightish calling range of 77+, AJ+. You need him to fold about 50% of the time here to make a push correct.

Assuming this is never a straight steal, you would need him to be raising a range like: A9+, KT+, 44+ to make a push correct. Since we have to add in at least 10% pure bluffs here. I am certain a push is better than a fold. I would be interested to here what others thought about other lines than might be better than a push. I could see calling and leading the flop being valid here as well.

***I forgot about antes, you need him to fold even less than 50% of the time for a push to be profitable. Plus this can help keep people off your blinds in the future, which is always nice.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need for him to fold about 45% of the time if he always dominates you if he calls. Realistically, you may be called by 55-99, Ax, or Kx. So maybe you need 35% folds.

I am pretty sure the push is cEV+ unless you are sure the big stack is a very tight raiser.

If villain calls and loses, he will no longer a big stack, so I think you have decent FE.

Plus, if it is borderline, I want to defend my blind and gamble to make the big money.

You could also play it as a stop and go. Call and push any flop. Once you call, there is 33K in the pot and you have 38K left, so I think you have to push any flop, unless you flop a flush or it comes ATT or something.

Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
 

omg i agree with betgo.

I push this every day and twice on sunday or something like that.

Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
 

I am either pushing or stop n go here.

Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I push this every day and twice on sunday or something like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Results
 

I thought for quite a while and ended up pushing in. The big stack took his time, but eventually called with AJ and I was knocked out. At the time I wanted to gamble, in order to put myself into good position to make the final table, but as a few people have said, I really had no reason to panic and I also did not have a solid read on this player. Thanks for the help.

Re: Results
 

Don't second guess yourself, this is +cEV against almost every range he has.

Re: Results
 

All the results prove is that AJ was in his range, and would call. Any thoughtful analysis knew both of these things were true before hand.

Desperation is a reason to make a move. It is never to pass one up.

Re: Results
 

You write too elequent for me to understand.

Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is too speculative a holding. Dump the hand and make a play when you get a pair or AK, AQ later and he pulls the same raise. You are NOT in panic mode yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meant to clarify that I'm also pushing pairs. MP isn't late position, obviously, so I think I can lay down KQ and AJ here.
I dont know for sure of how I would play it. But if this is your range to call, players will be killing each other for the right to raise your blind.

[/ QUOTE ]